The AL Cy Young winner in 2010
by Jeterian 2 on Sep 29, 2010 3:42 PM EDT
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Print*** DISCLAIMER : I am a CC Sabathia fan there is no hating here CC Sabathia has had a wonderful season and has been the ace of our staff the past two seasons.
Many people misinterpret the term Cy Young award winner. Some think it should go to the pitcher on the team that is going to the playoffs. Like a CC Sabathia or David Price. While both are having excellent seasons Felix Hernandez should be the Cy Young winner. Felix has strikes against him though. Not a good enough record, pitches in a pitchers park, has zero pressure to win on him.
While some of those statements mean nothing I'll tell you why those statements aren't his fault. Starting with wins. Felix Hernandez has 13 wins in 2010. Sabathia has 21 and Price has 19, very good. My friend sparked this idea when talking about it today. Saying how CC or Price deserve it over Felix by a large margin. I thought that was nuts. I heard Felix has no chance being 1 win over .500 right now. Is that even his fault though? In nine of Felix's 12 losses hes given up 1 run. Is the public going to penalize Felix for not giving up zero runs every game? Win/Loss record is bogus. Don't take this as CC and Price don't deserve their wins either. They pitch well. CC has an ERA just over 3, but the Yankees score an average of 7.31 runs for him per game. If Felix had that he would win 20+ games too.
Oh, but CC pitches in a hitter park. True, but Felix has been amazing vs.us. I went to a game earlier this year where he had the complete game shutout. In 3 starts vs. us hes 3-0, a 0.35 ERA, and we bat just .176 against him. Hes done all that in 26 innings forgot he also has 31 strikeouts thats a K/9 around 10. Oh and for the pressure stuff his team never makes it anywhere to get to this pressure. So no one can judge.
Just other stuff to see.
WAR -
Felix : 6.4
CC : 4.8
Price : 4.4
FIP -
Felix : 3.06
CC : 3.55
Price : 3.44
ERA -
Felix : 2.27
CC : 3.18
Price : 2.73
All this shows is all of their ERA's should take a hit a bit. What their FIP says. Felix still looks like the better pitcher of them all. As of now I have Felix winning, CC second, 3rd theres a bunch of guys right now, but I'll go with Price to make people happy. Felix is right behind Lee in WHIP. 1.06 to 1.02 so close Felix.
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How do you do saracstic text
"Young men, I have no doubt that you're gonna do well today. But I have 1 favor to ask of you... SAVE JIMMY JOHNSON'S ASS FOR ME!" Lou Holtz
by TheRealSlimShady on Sep 29, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Quite a few BBWAA writers/voters still consider W-L record important
so CC will definitely receive some consideration.
Lester ranks above Price. His 5.9 WAR is also 1.1 better than CC’s.
King Felix:
249.2 IP, 8.36 K/9, 2.25 BB/9,
Run Support: 3.10!!! (Lowest in the AL)
CC:
237.2 IP, 7.46 K/9, 2.80 BB/9
Lester:
204.0 IP, 9.71 K/9, 3.44 BB/9
Price:
207.2 IP, 8.10 K/9, 3.42 BB/9
Well to be fair
CC does pitch in the AL East with the uneven schedules he has to pitch against Sox, Rays and Jays. All three offensive monsters. King Felix pitches against the AAA A’s, the WTF happened Halos and the we can hit you hard (at home) Rangers.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Sep 29, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
After giving it second thoughts.
Lester, Weaver, and possibly Liriano deserve a ton more consideration.
Individuals don't win Championships, Teams do.
I liked John Flaherty's take on the CC (or Price) vs. Felix debate
He believes that the reason CC’s ERA is so much higher than Felix’s is BECAUSE cc plays for a winning team.
Starting pitchers don’t go into every start trying to pitch a shutout (though they obviously wouldn’t mind doing that,) they go into each start trying to win the game.
The Yankees will usually have a fairly big lead by the middle innings when CC’s pitching (think 6-0 or so) so if a couple of runners get on base, CC is more likely to challenge a hitter with a fastball to try to get a quick out. Worst case scenario, he hits a hr and the Yankees are still up by a bunch of runs. Not a big deal
Meanwhile, when Felix is pitching it’s usually a tight game (think 1-0 or so) in the middle innings. Therefore, Felix is less likely to challenge a hitter because he knows that a home run could cost him the game. If he played for a team that have him 6-7 runs a night, he would be more inclined to challenge hitters and keep his pitch count down with men on base, knowing that even a 3 run hr would raise his era but probably wouldn’t cost his team a win, which is the most important thing.
The Data Doesn't Support This
Joe Sheehan did a study on this to refute the argument that Jack Morris pitched to the score, easing up when he had a big lead. There was no evidence that this was the case.
That is
an excellent point. David Wells (who I just called an idiot and a big mouth in a post) used to pitch to the scoreboard and try to get quick outs.
wins are based on two
things the pitcher has no control over:
Luck
and whether or not his team score.
I dont want what you want...I dont feel what you feel.
Cy Young also holds the record for most losses
by that logic, Kevin Millwood should get the award
by bluecheese999 on Sep 29, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Wins do count
But to a much lesser degree than Whip, IP and ERA. Felix is an example of how being awesome on a crappy team can hurt your W/L totals.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Sep 29, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Cy Young wasn't even the best pitcher....
HOF voting:
1936 Ty Cobb 98.2%
1936 Walter Johnson 83.6%
1936 Christy Mathewson 90.7%
1936 Babe Ruth 95.1%
1936 Honus Wagner 95.1%
1937 Cy Young 76.1%
Young didn’t even get in on the first ballot, went in after Johnson and Matthewson, and went in with a lower percentage of votes. Dying in 1955 was why the award was named after him for “best” pitcher. The “Cy Young” should be awarded for a the second or third best pitcher with the most wins…that’s CC hands down.
Seriously though, Felix was the better pitcher, CC was the better player…both guys deserve recognition and are worthy of the award.
by steelerwheeler on Oct 1, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay.
You’re correct Cy Young isn’t the best pitcher. BUT not because of HOF voting…That is a dumb measure. Tim Raines would be in if the voters were smart.
Individuals don't win Championships, Teams do.
Gotta Disagree
All we have are books and stats. Guys who voted in 1936 likely saw all 3 play. HOF voting is probably the best measure to value someone’s entire career, especially when comparing two individuals who retire the same year. Young came in behind CM and WJ. Gotta love the add where Yount brags to Brett about his 2 MVP’s vs. one, but Brett quips back 98% HOF vote. Yeah, HOF voting is the final tally of how sportswriters judged you…a pretty good measuring stick.
by steelerwheeler on Oct 4, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
i disagree
considering how sportswriters choose to vote or not vote for players, sometimes having nothing to do with their actual quality of play on the field or in measure to their contemporaries.
Exactly
you vote on the quality of the career, stats and character included. You want to exclude character/crimes, whatever when you’re gonna name an award after someone? Guess you’d like to see a Barry Bonds/Roger Clemens award named for excellent players who’ve thus far done an excellent job of avoiding jail time. You can’t just jumble stats together…you’d get another BCS joke.
by steelerwheeler on Oct 5, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I understand the argument about Wins not being entirely dependent on the pitcher.
But so is ERA/Batting .AVG against/etc. There are 8 guys playing in the field, and hits (and therefore runs) are dependent if those guys can get to the balls or not. I mean, come on, King Felix has got Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro in the outfield, who I’m sure robbed a couple of hitters throughout the course of the season.
Also, ballparks factor into the equation as well. Yankee Stadium is a much better hitters park than SafeCo.
So, if all things are considered, what really is only dependent on the pitcher? Walks and Strikeouts? But isn’t that also dependent on the hitters you face, as the poster above suggests? If they’re more patient or free swinging hitters, if they’re a team full of veterans like AL East teams, or teams loaded with AAA talent like some in the AL West.
My point is, stats aren’t as objective as they appear to be. I think the best pitcher (just like the MVP) is the player that helps their team win the most when they’re on the field, and wins are a good indication of that, obviously not the only indication, but they should be factored in.
No statistic is going to show you the whole picture of every pitch that a pitcher has thrown the entire year. It’s impossible.
The idea is to use metrics and statistics that are as objective and show you as much as possible. If you take into account IP, ERA, FIP, K/9, BB/9, WHIP, and WAR, you’ve got a pretty good idea of what that pitcher’s season was like. Not the whole picture, of course, but about as close as you can get.
However, looking only at the win/loss record is the equivalent of looking at my left foot and saying you know what I look like. It tells you just about nothing and gives you next to none of the picture.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
I agree with your reasoning on why to keep statistics. But I also believe that Wins/Losses are not frivolous tally marks. Pitchers are human beings, not automotons. Their performance is dictated by the atmosphere around them.
Don’t you think there’s a little more pressure if you’re a Yankee pitcher playing in a game that’s nationally televised, pitching a critical game against the Red Sox or the Rays for a playoff spot, than there is for a Mariners pitcher who’s basically just going out there every 5 days just to finish out a season and pad their own stats. And don’t you think that added pressure should be factored in?
It’s not a level playing field, and you can’t treat it as such by just focusing on IP/K’s/WHIP.
That’s certainly true, and was what I meant when I said that you can’t really ever get the full picture on statistics alone. However, can you really say for certain that Felix or CC pitches differently than they normally would because of pressure or situation?
I think it’s a lot easier and you’re a lot more likely to be accurate if you take a look at what pitchers actually do on the field, instead of presuming to know what’s going on in their heads.
With that said, if there are players who perform equally, it’s fine to give the nod to the guy with the wins and the ‘pressure’ and all of that fluff. But Felix has been worlds ahead of CC this year, and mental aspects really doesn’t come close to making up the difference.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
This pressure-factor is much more concrete than how you describe it and this is how you measure it: Given a single elimination game, where the opponent has no batting alignment preference, i.e. equally good against R/L pitchers, based on that years performances alone, which pitcher in the league would a major league caliber manager (informed decision maker) send out to the mound?
Paraphrased, which pitcher gives you the best chance to win your game. How do actual accrued wins not count in that decision? I can’t say for certain that I would say CC is that pitcher this year, based on key loses to Price and King Felix, but because he beat the other guy 21 times this year, I have more confidence putting him up there.
How is “well, I’d rather CC pitch, I think we’re probably more likely to win” concrete in any way?
If it’s so much easier to perform without pressure or expectations, how come guys aren’t having career years left and right for the Pirates? No one even knows they exist.
Put CC and Derek Jeter on the Pirates or Mariners or any other bad team, and all of a sudden they lose their “winning magic.”
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
Why didn't Steve McNair win a Heisman?
I believe there is enough disparity between the haves and have-not teams in the MLB to draw comparisons with NCAA Division I football. So why didn’t Steve McNair, who by far had the best year of any QB in college football history, win the Heisman (he came in 3rd)? Competition.
King Felix doesn’t have to play 18 games against the Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jay’s offenses, which is about 11 starts (or a 1/3 of all your starts). He’s got 18 a piece of the Oakland A’s and the Angels, who both have scored 60 runs less this year than Toronto.
You put C.C. Sabathia in a Mariner’s uniform, you will get similar numbers to King Felix, and I daresay, more wins. Why? Cause the guy is a winner.
Felix dominated the Yankees 3 times.
Pitched well against the Twins 2 times and dominated the Pissants. He pitched against the Rangers 6 times, and got pounded in 2, but dominated in the other 4.
CC’s faced Boston 4 times, got pounded in one and dominated (F the rain) in the other 3. Against Tampa he’s pitched 4 times, dominated twice, got pounded once and the other was meh…
He faced Texas once in April and pitched well. He didn’t even face the Twins. He pitched well against the Phillies too.
These are the contenders these guys ahve pitched against. I didn’t take into account wins or losses, cuz they don’t apply. The pitcher dominates, you’re supposed to win.
This generalizing about who pitches in what division to say someone faces better competition is crap. Felix actually faced BETTER competition.
But I still say CC wins the Cy Young, cuz he WILL win the Cy Young. And I don’t give a crap whether he’s the right winner cuz Andy Pettitte was shafted yay years ago and I wanna see a Yank with that award.
Winning cures all...even stupid
by FreeBradshaw on Sep 29, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
and no one is a ""winner"".....
when a starter goes 8IP and lets up 1 run and gets a L or a ND, that doesn’t mean he’s a “loser”.
The pitcher doesn’t score runs.
Winning cures all...even stupid
by FreeBradshaw on Sep 29, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
This shouldn't even be a debate
In Felix’s 12 losses the Mariners have scored 14 runs. He has 10 losses where he allowed 3 earned runs of less. The guy would be like 24-4 if he was on the Yankees. Wins are completely irrelevant in determining how good a pitcher is. All due respect to C.C. and Price and Lester who have all had outstanding seasons, but Felix has become the best pitcher in baseball. He deserves the cy young.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Sep 29, 2010 10:47 PM EDT reply actions
Felix Hernandez
There’s really no debate.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
If Hernandez gets it it will drive up his price when he becomes a free agent.
Quiz question: What well-known franchise excels at signing expensive free agents?
Give it to Felix for this reason alone.
by designatedquitter on Sep 30, 2010 10:53 AM EDT reply actions
+1
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Sep 30, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
As much as I would like to see CC win, it should be Felix
King Felix has 30 quality starts this year. Yes, you read that right. 88% of the time he’s given his team a solid chance to win. Sabathia has 26 quality starts, or 76% of his starts. Price has 25, but he’s made fewer starts, so it’s 81%. Lester has only 20, good for just a 65% rate.
Since 1980, only six pitchers have logged 30 quality starts in a year, and all of them ended up winning the CY. Felix is the first to do it since Randy Johnson in 2002. Put felix on the yankees, and I would bet he has 25+ wins. It’s not his fault his team scores no runs.
The fact that we even have to discuss this bothers me some
I mean, I guess I understand because this is a Yankee site but anywhere else it should be a debate. You look at anything other than wins and it is absolutely no competition, and a pitcher has no direct control over wins and losses. Felix has an offense of epically bad proportions, why should that count against him? He is so clearly far and away the best pitcher in baseball this year.
Halladay has been very good this year, and should win the NL cy young, but remember he gets to throw to a pitcher every ninth batter. ERA+ has a league correction factor built in, so with that, Felix is at 174, and Halladay is at 166. Also, 25 quality starts for halladay. Halladay does have a ridiculous 7 k/bb rate, though. It’s close, but gotta give it to the AL pitcher here.
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