Appreciating Hughes
by Brandon C. on Sep 2, 2010 8:04 PM EDT
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintKen Davidoff, my least favorite writer in history of writing, (yes even worse than Duggan!) wrote this piece that I read in Newsday yesterday.
From the article:
Underlined one reason why the 2010 Hughes Rules have worked out considerably better than the 2009 Joba Rules:
Good fortune.
Well, Ken, here are some stats to show that Phil Hughes has actually pitched much better than Joba Chamberlain and that is the main reason why the Hughes Rules worked out better than the Joba Rules.
13-12: Phil Hughes has 13 quality starts this season. Joba Chamberlain had 12 all of last season.
4.10-4.78: Phil Hughes' 4.10 ERA is obviously much better than Joba Chamberlain's 4.78 ERA last season as a starter.
123-133: Yes, Phil Hughes has less strikeouts this season so far than Joba Chamberlain. By 10. Unless Hughes forgets how to pitch he will pass Joba in yet another category.
48-76: Joba Chamberlain walked 76 batters last season. With six starts left to tie Joba in starts on the season Hughes has 48 walks, 28 less than Joba had. Sure, Hughes could walk 4.6 batters per his next six starts (if he makes six starts) but it's questionable. Not the best stat to help my point, but I doubt Hughes will lose this category.
.250-.274: Phil Hughes' .250 batting average against so far is better than Joba's .274 as a starter last season.
These are only the basic statistics of baseball. Hughes will likely not make the six more starts to tie Joba Chamberlain's 31 starts of 2009, but if he did his numbers would not likely spiral out of control.
There's no such thing as good fortune in baseball. There is such a thing as being a better pitcher. There is also such a thing as winning games. Phil Hughes does that. For that, I appreciate Phil Hughes.
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I’m not sure there’s “no such thing as good fortune in baseball.” Haven’t we been saying all year that Joba and Granderson have had some bad luck that makes them look worse than they are? Also, do Joba’s numbers from last year include the starts he made at the end of the year? Because those short starts probably skew his starting numbers for the worse.
by long time listener on Sep 2, 2010 8:15 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It's a tough subject
I don’t believe in luck, but that’s a different opinion for everyone.
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
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by Brandon C. on Sep 2, 2010 8:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
So what would you call one batter crushing the ball right at the center fielder and the next batter getting completely fooled and getting an infield hit on a swinging bunt?
Luck is inherent in the game of baseball. It’s why the season is so long, there are so many streaks, and the winning percentages are so much closer to .500 in baseball than in any of the other major sports.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
I consider believing in luck an opinion
I’m not going to go into religious beliefs or anything like that, but I feel I can say I do not believe in luck without explanation.
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
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I'm really not sure where religion comes into a guy getting on base or lining out, personally.
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Sep 3, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm talking about luck in general
I don’t believe in luck, at all, about anything. One specific situation with luck will bring me into the greater argument about luck.
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
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But that makes it sound like you think there's some greater meaning behind someone's success.
If luck was only given out with reason, then AJax must have donated his signing bonus to children in Africa and Grandy must have spent his on booze.
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Sep 3, 2010 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure you understand at all what I'm saying
but I’m not getting into this discussion here. I do believe there are reasons behind everything and etc. You have to understand I am very religious and I’m not about to talk religion here.
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
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lol
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Sep 3, 2010 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I (Curtis Granderson) know this pain
Hello everyone, my name is Curtis Granderson, and I'm a bus-o-holic
A supporter of the MFY.
Two homers today
I think he’s earning back respect successfully
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Sep 3, 2010 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I think those even out over the course of a career.
Like if you flip a coin 10,000 times, you’re not likely to get something like 70% heads. It’s probably going to be around 50%. I think the same goes for balls crushed that are outs and balls hit weakly that become hits.
"He wasn't an astronaut, he was a tv comedian! And he was just using space travel as a metaphor for beating his wife!"
true
But over the course of 25 starts or so, luck can be a factor. Especially when the pitchers’ stats are fairly close.
by long time listener on Sep 2, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the large sample size argument, and exactly what I meant in saying that’s why the season is so long. There’s still some variance and noise, but the more data you get, the more it regresses towards the mean.
Taking one season of starting, (really more like 2/3 of a season), for two guys who are starting at the major league level and saying that Phil Hughes 4.10 ERA is so much better than Joba’s 4.78 ERA doesn’t meet that standard in my opinion.
And part of the “luck” argument is the fact that the Yankees are taking a calculated risk. They’re limiting their innings because they guess that based on other players, it’s the safer thing to do. It may or may not do more harm than good, as there are a million other factors going into it. Maybe Joba or Phil has a predisposition to a certain type of injury or something that there’s no way that the Yankees could know about it.
Call it what you want, but there are factors here that are fully outside the control of the Yankees organization, and sometimes they work out and sometimes they don’t. The best that you can do is make the most logical and factually supported decision, plan for the worst, and hope for the best.
That’s what we’ve done here by keeping a leash on Phil and Joba, and hopefully it works out. But even if it doesn’t, the validity of the decision still stands.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
At the beginning of August last year, Joba was 7-2 with a 3.58 ERA in 110.2 innings. His numbers really ballooned at the end of the year when he was making 3 inning starts, going 10 days between stats, etc.
Hughes also has the distinct advantage of having a much higher innings ceiling than Joba had (175-180 IP vs. the 157.1 that Joba was capped at) and having pitched that volume of innings before in his career.
Joba (and probably Hughes) will not be as good at the end of the year both because of the limitation and because this is their first time throwing a full major league season as a starter, and their bodies aren’t (weren’t) conditioned for it.
While you expect the performance to decline as the year goes, however, that doesn’t mean that the innings cap isn’t the right move. Hughes’ ERA will probably continue to go north this year, but hopefully we can avoid the long term injuries from overtaxing a young arm.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
Well
Joba Chamberlain in August:
August 6th, 11th, 16th, 25th, 30th. Outside of the 9 day rest he pitched on regular rest. In the three games he pitched on regular rest before the nine day rest he gave up four runs each. He then gave up seven runs and two runs. That’s four run average for the regular rest and 4.5 run average for non regular rest.
Random question actually. If the Yankees were to shut down Joba after August (4.38 ERA) and either move him to the pen or shut him down all together, do you think he would be in the rotation right now?
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
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Probably not. They essentially did shut him down the last month of the season. Even if he was pitching on regular rest, plenty of his starts ended up going <4 innings, and whether from fatigue or lack of rhythm, he got worse and worse.
But the entire reason that was done was to condition him to start in 2010, which would have been the exact same reason that they shut him down. They were already doing everything they could to get him ready to be a full time starter in 2010, so no, I don’t think that would have affected anything.
For whatever reason (I still don’t understand it) they threw away most or all of that work by picking Hughes at the beginning of the year, but hopefully this helps Phil more than it hurts Joba.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
Just clarifying
You wanted Joba instead of Hughes in the beginning of the year, or both?
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
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Well, I want both of them to be starters in the long term. Once we traded for Javy, it was pretty clear that only one of them was going to be able to make it into the rotation.
At that point where I had to pick one or the other, I wanted Joba. But either in spot starts or in the minors, I wanted Hughes to throw ~120 innings this year so that he’d be ready to be in the rotation also next year.
And I’m still really, really, holding out hope that Joba in the rotation isn’t dead.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
you and I think alike
I wanted Joba, too, though you can’t really argue with Hughes’s performance. I just hope that Joba to the rotation isn’t dead. In a way, the fact that he’s had his struggles in the bullpen might help keep the door open for a return to the rotation. If he was lights-out (and especially if he put 2007-type numbers), the Joba-to-the-pen and Joba-as-Mo’s-successor clamor would be hard for the Yankees to ignore. Now, his role with the team is a little more up in the air.
by long time listener on Sep 3, 2010 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
But, unfortunately, it’s a year in which he hasn’t learned anything about starting and has barely used his curveball and has all but abandoned his change up.
That moves him backwards on the starting learning curve, not forward. Even with the way Hughes has pitched, I’m still very against the move. But, of course, it is quite possible that they had information that I don’t have that influenced them.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
all true
I still think he can do the job in the rotation, and should get another shot there. But you’re right that a year in the bullpen isn’t moving him forward as a starter, so we’ve got to hope for the best, I guess.
by long time listener on Sep 3, 2010 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Replying to your earlier comment
Let’s say Javy leaves. That leaves CC, Burnett, Hughes. Pettite is iffy
Let’s say Yankees sign Lee.
That’s 5 with Pettitte four without him. If Pettitte retires do you slide him into that spot? How would you do that, have him restart in the minors or spring training is good enough?
I’m all for Joba doing what’s best for the Yankees and as of this second it depends on who stays next year. I would rather have Lee in the rotation than Joba, same goes for Pettitte, but if either doesn’t work out Joba might be a good guy to have in that spot.
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
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I would solve that dilemma very easily: I wouldn’t sign Cliff Lee. I might not even call his agent for an opening price.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
Elaborate?
Are you saying you don’t like Lee or you are picking Joba over Lee or what?
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Cliff Lee will make more than $20 million next year, Joba will make less than $500,000.
Cliff Lee is better, but he’s not 40 times better, and there’s better, more economical ways to spend that money than in 5 year contracts to 32 year old pitchers.
I sense a post on this very topic coming very soon.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
How do the innings pitched and pitches thrown compare?
Without comparing the number of innings they pitched, we can’t really compare the other statistics. For example, if 1 pitcher has 50 Ks and another has 18, you would immediately assume that the first one was the better pitcher. However, if the first pitcher pitches 100 innings, while the other pitcher has 6, then it’s fairly obvious that the second pitcher pitched better.
"my least favorite writer"
You’re obviously too young to remember when Murray Chass was one of the main baseball writers for the Times.
Whenever I need a good laugh, I go read this.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Hey, at least he takes a shot at Red Sox fans!
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
it would be funnier if it weren't so tragic
I remember before he retired he wrote a column ripping into the new-fangled statistics. (At least I think it was a column; maybe have just been an interview.) He said something to the effect that he didn’t know what VORP was and didn’t care to find out. I remember being stunned that someone who actually wrote about baseball for a living at a major newspaper could get away with saying that. This was in early 2008, I believe, when the Democratic primaries were going on. I remember thinking, what if a political columnist or reporter said “I don’t know what these ‘superdelegates’ are, and I don’t care to find out.” I hope that person would be fired in a heartbeat. Why is it different for sportswriters? If it’s worth paying someone to write about it, it’s worth finding people who are going to learn about new developments. Unfortunately, there are still too many writers and broadcaster with that mentality.
by long time listener on Sep 3, 2010 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Uhh, Ken Davidoff is awesome
Probably the best NY writer around.
by James Kannengieser on Sep 3, 2010 12:45 AM EDT reply actions
Not at all
same guy that picked a Blue Jays Giants world series in ’07, Red Sox Diamondbacks in ’08.
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Wait.. those selections were serious?
Or was he on some sort of crack/cocaine?
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Sep 3, 2010 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions
So you've never made a prediction that didn't work out?
I love it. Wrong predictions make a writer bad. Meanwhile the guy is one of the few out there to use fact-based analysis (unlike the nonsense in this post). His Hall of Fame ballot last year was the best in the country. He’s a terrific writer on top of that too.
By the way, I laughed once again at this sentence:
There’s no such thing as good fortune in baseball. There is such a thing as being a better pitcher.
What the hell are you talking ab— oh I forgot, you’re very religious, so luck has no place here (what?).
by James Kannengieser on Sep 3, 2010 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Would you like me to cite specific posts?
I’d rather not go through a writers archives in a meaningless argument. Pointless stress.
I’m not trying to force my opinion on you, just stating it.
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
by Brandon C. on Sep 3, 2010 10:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Uh oh. Duggan makes (some) sense. People arguing religion. Intelligent view of Joba's last season instead of "DFA or Teh Pen"
What we’ve got here are 3 of the signs of the Apocalypse.
Plus a shaky grasp of mathematics (on some people’s part). If you flip a coin 100 times, there is a real chance it will come up heads 70 times. There is a better chance it will come up heads 60 times, and a lower but not -zero chance it will come up heads 80 times.
Having said that, I don’t think “luck” enters into the Hughes/ Chamberlain comparison at all. I think that Chamberlain was handles poorly, and that hurt him. The Yankees learned from that, to the benefit of Hughes. Both pitchers’ performances deteriorate as their innings count gets into uncharted territory. What’s so hard about that?
Their both still on the kiddy side of 25 and potentially fine starters for the next 10-15 years. Now lighten up.
by designatedquitter on Sep 3, 2010 10:07 AM EDT reply actions
I read this idiot's article
Is this guy from Newsday a Red Sox fan reporting on the Yankees? If so he should give it up and allow a real guy write the articles. What a bunch of crap. Phil Hughes was pegged as a starter from the get go. He had a bit of confidence issues and look at him now. The future of the rotation is bright and I do like what Ivan Nova is doing since the call up.
Good fortune is why the restrictions on Hughes worked better than it did for Joba? What a shmuck. Joba got jerked around all over the place last year and that’s why he stayed in the pen. Hughes is a full out starter. Newsday should send someone else and get this guy to cover the Mets.
by NYR #35 Richter on Sep 4, 2010 11:13 AM EDT reply actions
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