Bomber Links: Ol' Reliable

by Lord Duggan on Sep 17, 2010 9:00 AM EDT in New York Yankees News

Mood Music - Miss You by The Rolling Stones

Andy! You're coming back! Per the NY Daily News, the Yankee who I think we have all missed most, Andy Pettitte, will be starting this Sunday against the Orioles. Please take a moment to sigh, unwind, and let this comforting news sink in.

Thank You.

Quoth Girardi on Ol' Reliable's glorious return:

"All indications are that he feels good, which is really important," Girardi said of Pettitte. "It would be frustrating if he didn't - for him and for all of us. I want to see him go out there Sunday and see how sharp he is."

While that sounds promising, there is a contingency plan in place. If Andy can not make the start, it will go to Javier Vazquez, who for now, appears destined to another stint in the bullpen.

Also from the Daily News, Mike Lupica discusses the importance of winning the division. I know there has been some debate on this topic, but I'm not quite sure where I stand on it. I think that if the division is still neck and neck, you have to go pretty close to all out for it. However, if the Yankees fall behind, I'm okay with getting some of the veteran plays some extra rest (we're nowhere near ready to be talking about doing that just yet, though).

Here is the latest entry in The Grandstand titled "Crunch Time in September Arrives Again." As always, Curtis Granderson delivers an engaging and well articulated player perspective.

After the jump, there will be hating. Lots of hating.

Look, everyone, it's the Four Letter Network! Lose a few tight, well fought games to some of the best teams in baseball and you're labeled a team that comes up short when it counts. And look! That pitch didn't really hit Derek Jeter, either! Analysis on batting average with runners in scoring position over a small sample size reveals everything about the mental fortitude of Yankee players!

Alright, it wasn't that bad, Andrew Marchand did at least have the decency to admit that we will get a chance to play these teams again, and haven't collapsed yet (thanks, Champ), but think about it like this: If Dan Johnson flies out to the warning track instead of hitting that home run, who would dare say the Yankees were "fading" or "in trouble" or aren't favorites for the World Series? Drastically changing your opinion and expectations every few games based on hot and cold streaks completely undermines the credibility of your predictions, but it seems to be a job requirement for the Four Letter Network.

Chad Gaudin is appallingly bad. In 2010, in his 60.1 innings with the Yankees and A's, he has compiled a somewhat impressive -0.6 WAR, and batters are OPSing .852 against him. For reference, this year Alex Rodriguez has posted an .828 OPS. So facing Chad Gaudin approximately turns the average hitter into a Centaur. Thankfully, 49.1 of his innings have been logged in "low leverage" situations, according to Fangraphs. Let's keep it like that, Joe. No more of these "let's throw in The Chad in the bottom of the 10th and see what happens!" shenanigans.

Since joining the Yankees, Austin Kearns has struck out in 36% of his plate appearances, including seven strikeouts in his last nine. I know it's a small sample size, but you've got to be doing better than .233/.327/.337 to justify all of those strike outs.

Get better, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.

Finally, taking a glance at the Yankees schedule, I noticed that they have six off days after the All Star Break. Five of those six off days have come on a Thursday. It's almost like the schedule makers know that I write the recaps of Thursday night games and are trying to save the community from my bad jokes, comma splice, and bias in Comment of the Game selection.

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Comments

bottom of the order lull

Kearns indeed has been a disappointment of late. And must we continue plugging Colin Curtis into so many games? I would rather risk an occasional defensive miscue with Thames and have his bat. Yes, the real solution is getting Gardner and Swish back soon. How are they doing anyway?

by tmccamis09 on Sep 17, 2010 9:24 AM EDT reply actions

Forget that! Next year, I want Thursday nights!

Why does Kearns have to hit to a specific level to justify striking out. Strikeouts (while boring and fascist) are not worse outs that grounder to short or weak flyball to left field. I am only concerned if there is a flaw in his swing (Granderson before time with KLong) or pitch recognition (see Soriano, Alfonso & 2003 playoffs).

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Sep 17, 2010 9:26 AM EDT reply actions

That percentage of strikeouts seems to show an all or nothing approach

And a .233 average with a .337 slugging just isn’t good enough to play regularly.

by pkyankeefan on Sep 17, 2010 9:34 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I agree, his line indicates he should sit- but his strikeouts have nothing to do with it beyond that they are outs.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Sep 17, 2010 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

That's true

But a high K% leaves less room for LDs and GBs, both of which have some chance of falling for a hit. If he had a crazy .500 slugging with that average, he’d be slightly worse than Adam Dunn (.251/.381/.523 career, similar K%), and I’d happily take that. That said, his career line (.257/.352/.424, 24.2% K rate) seem to fall somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.

by pkyankeefan on Sep 17, 2010 10:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

While there is nothing fundamentally different about a strikeout vs. a weak fly out or weak grounder in the context of a game, it also represents a play in which Austin Kearns has a 0% chance of reaching base.

He has a .340 BABIP since coming here (.304 career) against a 20.0%LD (20.7% career), so he’s actually been lucky to hit .233. Striking out at that rate, you would expect him to regress even lower.

Not puting the ball in play that often is acceptable if on the times you do put it in play, you put it in play with a lot of authority (Adam Dunn). Kearns hasn’t been doing that at all (.337 SLG) and with all of those outs without even getting the ball in play, there isn’t a lot of room for imporvement.

If you replace some of those strikeouts with some weakly hit balls, you have the chance for some cheap hits and productive outs. But yes, the flaw in his swing, to me, anecdotally, seems to be chasing the high fastball.

Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com

by Lord Duggan on Sep 17, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

AN-DY PET-TITE

"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III

by Chris McKeown on Sep 17, 2010 9:27 AM EDT reply actions

PETT-ITTE*

"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III

by Chris McKeown on Sep 17, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Once again, Curtis Granderson's literacy and lack of egomania on his blog are refreshing.

Ask yourselves what you would have said in May if someone told you that Austin Kearns and Colin Curtis would be 2/3 of the starting outfield in games that mattered. You would have said, “What?! Where is Randy Winn?”

Also, ask yourselves if you should be blaming losses on Chad Gaudin or the Meat Ray. They are the 11th and 12th men on the pitching staff, the mop-up guys and long relief.

Ask yourself if 20 months ago the Yankees acquired Swisher for Wilson Breathmint and a bag of batting practice balls you didn’t say to yourself “I hope those weren’t the good balls.”

Finally, ask yourself if back in May you thought you were going to be saying, “Teixeira got to 30 and 100? So what? Was there ever a doubt?”

The Yankees with Pettitte, Gardner, and Swisher are not the same crew that lost 8 out of the last 10. They are an entirely different and better team. Stop worrying.

by designatedquitter on Sep 17, 2010 10:04 AM EDT reply actions

The swisher trade, at the time, was a pretty even trade. Swisher had a bad year the previous season, and Cashmoney bought low. His career numbers suggested he would be better in the future, but he’s surpassed even that to become an all-star level player. I doubt anyone could have predicted that.

I, for one, did not doubt that Tex would get to 30 and 100. His early season woes lasted longer than they usually do this year, but we all know he’s a monster the rest of the year, so I can honestly say I never doubted he’d have numbers like that when all was said and done.

by Wraithpk on Sep 17, 2010 4:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions