A.J. Burnett?
It feels like I am the only A.J. Burnett supporter left on PSA now after his recent rough outing. He's gotten hit hard his last two starts, and Yankees fans are calling for the DFA, trade, sending to the bullpen, and even suggesting sending him to AAA. Too bad the AAA season is almost over.
For me, the A.J. bashing seems a bit ridiculous. For one, he's pitched better than people seem to believe (not saying he's pitched well, but not bad enough to warrant the type of bashing he's been taking). And secondly, he hasn't even been the worst pitcher on the staff.
Here are A.J. Burnett's stats since his start on July 2nd, not including tonight's abysmal performance (I would use a table,but I don't know how exactly- help by a mod on that, or from anyone for that matter, would be appreciated).
Innings Pitched- 53.2
Hits- 54
Walks- 19
Earned Runs- 24
HR- 6
Strikeouts- 38
ERA- 4.02
Lets be honest here, those are NOT bad stats at all. In fact, they are similar to his stats last year. A little more hits allowed and a little less K's, but for the most part he's limited the damage to a respectable 4.02 ERA over the last two months, including a 2.00 ERA in July.
If you want some measure of comparison, here is Javy Vazquez's stats through all his starts in July and August.
Innings Pitched- 49
Hits- 55
Walks- 19
Earned Runs- 27
HR- 12
Strikeouts- 32
ERA- 4.96
For those of you saying that Javier Vazquez has been a better pitcher than A.J. Burnett lately, and that you'd "rather have him start", quite simply put the numbers don't agree with you. He has logged less innings, given up more hits, more earned runs, less strikeouts, and has a 4.96 ERA through this time- almost a full run higher than A.J.s. Add in the fact that his only decent performance since the end of July was in a relief appearance and that it's been over a month since he's had a quality start by definition (because I don't agree that 6 innings 3 runs is a quality start). Statistics don't tell the whole story, but they tell a lot.
Lets look at Phil Hughes now, because his numbers over July and August haven't been too pretty either.
Innings Pitched- 56.1
Hits- 60
Walks- 16
Earned Runs- 31
HR- 11
Strikeouts- 41
ERA- 4.95
Believe it or not, Phil hasn't been to pretty either. Hughes has struggled actually quite a lot since his unbelievable start where he was the best pitcher in the league. He seems to be not able to put batters away as easily as he did in April and May. Guys are having better ABs, fouling more balls off. And stuff that used to be strikeouts are getting fouled back. The longer the at bat, the more it goes into a hitters favor. And hitters have favored Phil Hughes over the last two months, getting to him for roughly a 5 ERA with 11 HR (most of them given up at home).
I'm not going to look at Nova/Moseley. They are not in the Yankees long term plans, they are only fill in starters. And neither of them has as much of a sample space over the last 2 months as these three guys, so I can't really compare them. Barring a very unfortunate series of circumstances, Nova and Moseley will not be trusted with big innings come October. And if they are trusted with them, well, prey to Cervelli with all your heart!
This post is mainly to put out into pure, solid facts- how each of the members of the Yankees rotation has done over the last two months. CC Sabathia has been far and away the Yankees best pitcher this season- and is the only one I really trust at this point come playoff time. However, the rest of the rotation is up in the air.
The second reason for this post, was as more of a response to the constant bashing to A.J. Burnett. "Send him to the minors, send him to the bullpen, trade him, DFA". Some of that is just venting, which is OK. But what really doesn't make sense to me is things like, "he doesn't deserve to pitch in the playoffs", or "put Javy in his place". I don't get that. Because since Dave Eilands return after June he's been normal (for him). I realize that A.J. can be very inconsistent, and has just as much potential to blow up as he does to pitch a no hitter. And when he pitches in the postseason, I will be crossing my fingers just like everyone that we get the good, unhittable Burnett that showed up in Game 2 of the World Series, and not the one that Chase Utley used as extra batting practice in Game 5.
But the numbers, his contract, and his history all support my belief that if there's any question who will pitch in the postseason, there shouldn't be. Because like it or not, one of them should, and one of them is going to be A.J. Burnett.
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I am also still an AJ supporter
I think he is running out of chances though. Yanks should try and put a claim in on Ted Lilly, if they get the chance. They need another veteran arm, I trust Nova/Moseley less than Javy/AJ.
i agree they need another starting pitcher
the problem is getting a solid one to fall back to them. Being the best team in the AL the Yanks will have one of the last waiver claims on anybody, especially guys from the NL. Any pitcher capable of helping the Yanks will probably be claimed before the Yanks have a chance to get them.
I hate all Boston sports teams
I agree, waiver help probably isnt coming
Nothing against Nova/Moseley but I have no confidence in those two if one or both need to be starting in the playoffs. I hate to say this but if Joba is just going to wasted in a mop up garbage time role, get him stretched back into a starting role. Not saying he will be any better, but why not?
by YankeesJets on Aug 28, 2010 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
by the time Joba gets stretched out
it’ll be the end of September. Which means he’ll have maybe 1 start at most at full strength before thrusting him into a starting playoff role. I don’t see it happening. Joba has actually been much better out of the pen recently and I want Joe to use him in important innings again.
I hope someone gets through waivers so the Yanks can have a crack at them. Hughes has an innings limit, Vazquez has been awful as hell the last month, and Burnett is inconsistent. They desperately need Andy back healthy and strong, and then hope that Vazquez can pick up his game. Because a three man of CC, A.J., Andy probably won’t work twice.
I hate all Boston sports teams
The schedule wont allow a 3 man rotation this year
I think CC, Hughes, AJ and hopefully a healthy Andy will be fine in playoffs. I want no part of Javy pitching in the playoffs, I liked the move in getting him but he is just about finished. If godforbid the Yanks miss the playoffs, I think Cashman should be fired. I know Im opening the floodgates up with that but the moves in 2010 have not worked out great and he shouldve grabbed another arm. Im only saying if they miss the playoffs.
by YankeesJets on Aug 28, 2010 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
The problem with getting a starter...
Is that anyone that falls to us in waivers at this point is going to either be a bad pitcher or a mediocre pitcher with a bad contract that will hamper us next year. 28 teams aren’t going to pass on Ted Lilly so that the Yankees could sign him, and who knows what he’d be back in the AL at this point with his fastball topping out at 87 anyway.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Aug 28, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
As a Yankee fan you kind of have to be an A.J. supporter
He has 3 years left after this one on a contract that makes him absolutely untradeable.
More importantly, we don’t have enough starting pitching to win the world series without A.J. giving us something. He doesn’t have to be lights out, but we can’t be down 5 runs in the 2nd inning of the games he starts either. We need him to fix himself, for the playoffs this year, and for the future.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Aug 28, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Im not saying that he should be DFA'd
or sent to AAA or traded. Im saying that he has been so inconsistent as of late that its hard to say that I would want him to pitch for us in the post season. There is no doubt in my mind that he is a good pitcher. We just dont know when we’re going to see that good pitcher and its frustrating as hell. He probably will pitch in the post season, and I hope he does well. I dont want to trade him. I do think that we should skip his next start and have Eiland work with him. I want to know what pitcher is going to show up at the ballpark.
They didn't let me out, they just gave me a day pass.
You guys need to get your head out of the sand
AJ has always been about a .500 pitcher. That’s just not going to cut it on the Yankees. This is not what the Yankees paid big money for…. 12-12. Not for a #2 starter, which is what he is supposed to be. Yeah, his stats overall are similar to Javy’s, but AJ gives up the big inning too much, and gets hammered too often. Interspersed with a few 1 run games, and the average seems much less sucky than it is. I have no confidence in him come the playoffs, where he gets through 4 or 5 and then completely implodes. The guy just can’t shut the door when he needs to.
yet do you have confidence in Javy, who has done nothing but pitch badly since July?
Or Moseley/Nova, who have little big league experience and no postseason experience? There’s a reason for that.
I’m not thrilled about A.J. in the playoffs either- I said he was inconsistent. But it’s not as if the rest of the staff inspires more confidence than him. If the Yanks are going to repeat this year, Burnett is going to have to play a role.
I hate all Boston sports teams
the difference between AJ and Javy/the scrubs
is we paid AJ $$$$ to be our #2. Long term contract. And what have we gotten for that money? 12 wins and now a losing record this year. He’s not the guy we want. We got AJ to pitch well against the Red Sox; just look at his record against them, its awful. Not only does he not pitch well in the big games ( Game 2 of the WS notwithstanding), but he gets blown out.
And we have how many more years of this?
I have never left AJ's side
It doesn’t mean that I’m not frustrated with his recent struggles though. It’s weird because he pitches decently 60% of the time and the other 40% is absolute garbage. He really needs to figure out where he is mentally and learn to control it.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
he has no middle ground
he can’t grind out games. Thats why his bad games are REALLY bad and it inflates his ERA. When he’s on, believe me, take nobody else in baseball. He has the best stuff in the league.
I hate all Boston sports teams
It's a matter of when though
The guy simply can’t deliver when he needs to. It’s a shame to see his mental issues get in the way of his game. It seems like when he lets up a hit, he becomes vulnerable to giving up any amount of runs after that.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 28, 2010 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I think AJ's tired.
You don’t see it in velocity, but you really never see a pitcher being tired have the velocity dip, especially when you’re as athletic as AJ.
The guy’s always been the Nick Johnson of pitching. Extremely talented, but always hurt. He’s NEVER pitched this many innings in a row. He was healthy in 2008,2009 and pitched the playoffs, and still hasn’t missed more then 1 start in a row.
This is unseen territory for him, even for someone his age. What’s the answer, as with AJ nothing ever seems easy. Skip a start, DFA, beheaded at noon, castrated, sent to Pittsburgh..who knows.
"Skip a start, DFA, beheaded at noon, castrated, sent to Pittsburgh..who knows."
That line is awesome
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 28, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
The current team is our team for the playoffs
So, AJ will get his starts. We should just hope The Joe is ready in the playoffs with a quick hook. If bad AJ shows up we need to go to the pen before the fifth run scores. Maybe before the forth.
The point that we don’t have a better alternative than AJ is right. But once he gives up that first inning 3 run homer, get him out of there. Don’t wait for further disaster.
"You don't realize how easy this game is until you get up in that broadcasting booth." Mickey
Girardi probably would have a quicker hook in the playoffs
most likely the 5th starter left out of the playoffs is in the pen for long relief, and of course you don’t have games every day so killing the pen in one night is not as big a deal.
You really can’t do that now.
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 28, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Well
Andy and A-Rod will be on the playoff team. Look at the difference they both made last year…
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 28, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
You Nailed It
No one knows what AJ will show up on a given night. Not even AJ. So the Yanks will trot him out in the postseason and hope for the best. Joe needs to have the long relief warmed up early just in case. Fortunately, the long relief has been pitching well of late and, as the others have noted, you can use the bullpen more aggressively in the postseason.
by CA_Yankee_Fan on Aug 31, 2010 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions
This is where stats are dangerous.
You broke down everyones numbers since July 2nd. Who cares about July 2nd? A.J. has had 4 or 5 straight horrible starts. His era for the month of August is close to 8, I believe. Obviously theres a problem. He used to be inconsistent now he"s consistently terrible.
He's had 5 starts this month
3 have sucked, the other 2 were great. He’s being horrible more often, but he’s not been “consistently terrible”
Since July 2nd, he’s had 10 starts. 4 have sucked, the other 6 have been pretty good..actually.
There’s a problem yes, this guy should be better then this…but at least get what he’s actually done right.
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 28, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I got a two month sample size
And actually, it’s only been 2 horrible starts in a row. 3 starts ago he pitched 8 innings of one run ball against KC. 4 starts ago against Texas he had 7 innings of 3 run ball. The last two starts have been really bad, yes.
I know he’s inconsistent, but no, he hasn’t been consistently terrible.
I hate all Boston sports teams
don't use facts, let's play in imagination world
AJ Burnett has not had a single good start all year and makes the most money in baseball and he also kills kittens in his spare time.
A supporter of the MFY.
LOL
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 28, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
come aboard the imagination flying machine!

I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Aug 28, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
crap.
i forgot how to get pictures into my comment without having to open up a new tab or window to see it
I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Aug 28, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Picture posting fail
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 28, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah i did that
i put the url in but my picture came out with the little question mark
I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Aug 28, 2010 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
no other options came up
just a box that said “enter the url” with an ok button and a cancel button
I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Aug 29, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
once you put in the url
you type in height=“300” at the end of the URL.
They didn't let me out, they just gave me a day pass.
That never works for me anyway
So I don’t bother doing it lol
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 29, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Overall I agree with the post
but why did you not include A.J.’s last start in the numbers? It obviously swings them in your favor by leaving a bad start out. What is his ERA since July 2nd if you include yesterday? I would guess much, much worse.
Well I used the Yahoo stats to see the game logs to so I can add up all the innings and stuff
and Yahoo always waits until the next day to add a pitchers start. I used what was on his player page (I know, I’m lazy). I agree that his stats would get worse by adding his last start, but probably still not as bad as Javy or Hughes has been over the last couple months.
I hate all Boston sports teams
I just figured it out
and yea you’re right, it’s ugly. It goes up to a 5.05, which is worse than both of the other starters, although not by much.
It just shows what one start can do. One bad start can really ruin any sample size. You can look at it as, “oh, he’s sucked since the end of June as well”, or “he had one bad start and can bounce back his next time out”.
I’ll choose the positive one, although you’re right. My laziness really did swing everything in my favor. None of the pitchers really inspire confidence at this point though. I just hope he turns it around. They need this guy.
I hate all Boston sports teams
+1
I hope he doesnt, but that made me LOL
2010 Red Sox Playoffs.... We Can Do It!
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by bestbostonsports on Aug 29, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for pointing out Hughes’ record over the past two months. Baseball writers keep treating him as if he’s a new ace (which I think he’s on his way to being, eventually), and he’s got an impressive W-L record, but he’s actually seemed to struggle mightily for some time now.
by Yankee Frankee on Aug 28, 2010 11:16 PM EDT reply actions
A.J. ??
I don’t know where your stats come from, I’m just looking at the simple fact 4-0 with a 2 era in April & 5-12 with almost a 6 era since. I will take Mosley & Nova with their naiveness against A.J. & his ability for the rest of the season & playoffs. They don’t know what it’s like in October but if I have to count on A.J. & what’s between his ears I’ll take the kids.
the stats are A.J.'s starts since the end of his awful June, or in the last two months
I hate all Boston sports teams
In spite
of AJ’s ungodly stuff, the difference between him being very good and bad is slim. He doesn’t have a vast array of pitches. If he’s not getting the curveball over and locating the fastball he’s toast. His control is not as good as CC’s, Andy’s, or Hughes’ for that matter. His velocity is also down about 2-3 mph from his peak velocity from last year (96-98) and that often means the difference between a pitch that’s fouled back, popped up, or swung and mised at, and one thats put in play hard. At times it seems his release point changes and he can’t repeat his delivery. He yanks pitches. He doesn’t throw the change enough. For all his talent and decent accomplishments (no-hitter. WS win) he’s still an unpolished power pitcher. He doesn’t need to be sent down, DFA, or sent to the bullpen. His numbers are unacceptable for a pitcher who’s making number-one starter money. That’s what the problem is. To a certain extent he got as much as what he got based on what the Yanks (and other teams were offering him a lot too) thought he could still become, not what he was. One strong season (18-10 in 2008) doesn’t justify what he’s making. Sometimes you’ve got to overpay to procure the best available talent, but Tex and CCìs track records indicated they came with guarantees. AJ’s did not.
Pettitte has a 0.00 ERA this month!
He’s been great! haha
I’m still an AJ fan. I know how good he can be. World Series game 2 last year was as good as it gets. And he will find it again. We need him to be good for 1 month. And I have confidence he will be great for 1 month.
Let's cut through the crap, Vaughn. I only got one thing to say to you: "Strike this mother f*cker out."
Why is Ivan Nova not in the Yankees' long term plans?
Since when do young guys who tear up AAA, throw 96, and have MLB- ready poise not fit into long term plans? Especially with Vazquez not signed beyond 2010 and Andy Pettitte a retirement possibility every year?
Have I missed something that everyone else knows about?
by designatedquitter on Aug 30, 2010 10:08 AM EDT reply actions
Its probably because he wasnt very good before this year
if he can keep it up, he might have a chance.
he may be
I don’t know, but I never heard of this guy before this year. He’s had a great minor league season, and if Pettitte retires I could definitely see him getting at least an opportunity to be the #5 starter next year.
You sir, are right. My mistake.
I hate all Boston sports teams
I don't think anyone knows whether or not he's in the long term plans
So far, to me at least, he has proven to be a fairly effective pitcher. Maybe it’s not all about going out and buying the Cliff Lees of the world. Or is it…………
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 30, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
He was always regarded as a potential middle of the rotation starter
or in Yankee fan talk, “teh .500 startah”. So of course, with the bus and every thing, that’s not the type of player that enters into the “Yanks long term plans”. They only add the front-line potential starters and make them middle of the rotation starters..like Hughes and Joba are/was/will be.
But Nova doesn’t look like that anymore. I dunno if it was control or simply coming into his own (he IS only 23 y/o), but he may be in their plans now.
You never really know what a pitcher is or will be until they get starts under their belt. Even someone like Joba who’s essentially had 1 full season of starting under his belt…you don’t know what he’ll be in a couple years.
Lot of pitchers just have things “click” when they get to the bigs. Nova certainly has the stuff.
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 30, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Its the B12.
"Young men, I have no doubt that you're gonna do well today. But I have 1 favor to ask of you... SAVE JIMMY JOHNSON'S ASS FOR ME!" Lou Holtz
by TheRealSlimShady on Aug 31, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
They're going to shut him down soon
to preserve his young arm. Nova tossed (a career-high) 139 IP between AA and AAA last year and, this year, has eclipsed that total at 159 IP. I’d be surprise if the Yankees allow him to approach 185 IP.
by Scooby Snacks on Aug 31, 2010 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, you are the only AJ supporter -
You must feel a bit like Charlton Heston in “The Omega Man” (remade by Will Smith recently)
Statistics are misleading. The guy threw a few good games recently but has lost quite a few in the first three innings and seems incapable of righting the ship once it’s off-kilter. He’s very painful to watch for most people but hey, if you like that kind of thing… PS: he’s 9-12 with a club that’s 31 games over .500.
he shouldn't be 0-4 this month
don’t buy too much into the record- even in his good games this month the Yanks didn’t score for him. Remember the 1-0 loss when he threw 8 innings of 1 run ball against KC? And he pitched well his start before only to have teh pen blow the win for him that game. If he won those games he’d be 11-10, which isn’t great but it’s a winning record.
I agree statistics are misleading and don’t tell the whole story. They just tell that A.J. hasn’t been quite as bad as everyone believes him to be. 2 bad starts in a row and people act as if it’s his 20th bad start in a row. I hope he does well tomorrow in Oakland- the Yanks need to get him going.
I hate all Boston sports teams
On the other hand....
Although there was a recent post about how wins don’t really mean much, there’s no getting around the fact that Burnett is 9-12 on a team that generally scores a bunch of runs. Putting your team down 6 runs in the 3rd inning, as he has done all too often circumscribes your offensive strategies.
Some pitchers just pitch well enough to win, regardless of the score. They will win 2-1, or 8-7. AJ Burnett is not that guy. No starter should have 3 more losses than wins on a team with the Yankees or Rays records. Burnett is the only one who does.
by designatedquitter on Aug 31, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I wrote about wins not meaning too much… but on a team that’s 81-50… you’d expect for Burnett to be a tad bit better than 9-12.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 31, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
The Yankees manage to score 6.66 runs per game for Burnett
That seems slightly above average… clearly Burnett does quite a bit of damage to himself.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 31, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 31, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
is another way to look at it
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 31, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

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