Yankee Run Support
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Aug 23, 2010 12:00 AM EDT
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PrintA point of interest around PSA this season has been run support, or lack thereof, for the starting pitchers. At times, the offense has seemed spotty at best, looking lost one day and hanging a crooked number the next. Last week, Yankees2 wrote a post about why a pitcher's record mattered and he touched a bit on the idea of run support playing a role in whether a pitcher takes a W or L without it really being under his control. I decided to calculate the run support that each Yankee starter has gotten so far this season to see if "Getting Javy'd" actually exists, and who has had the good fortune of having the offense back their efforts.
How I calculated run support: I took all the runs scored in games started by each player. I didn't differentiate between runs scored while the pitcher was still in the game vs runs scored after they were pulled.
Note: Stats in the chart do not include CC's win against Seattle on Aug. 22.
Unsurprising to anyone who watches Yankee games is that Phil Hughes gets the most run support during his starts and Javy gets the least. For comparison, the Yankee offense has scored less than 5 runs during a Hughes start only 7 times (zero shutouts), while scoring less than 5 runs during 15 of Javy's outings (3 shutouts). I am in no way saying that Phil's W/L record is solely due to the fact that the offense scores a lot when he pitches, but it definitely helps his cause. What I am suggesting is that Phil has a bit more room for error than Javy does, to the tune of about 2 extra runs.
Something that was surprising, to me at least, was that the offense has scored less than 5 runs during 12 of CC Sabathia's starts, but he has managed to pitch brilliantly to overcome not always having the run support to back him up. It further proves how valuable our ace is to the staff, and how good CC is at baseball.
A.J. Burnett has also struggled a bit with getting the offense to back him up when he pitches. We all know that Bad AJ will show up every once in a while, but when Good AJ is pitching and the offense can't help him out it feels like a wasted opportunity. The game in KC vs Bryan Bullington where Good AJ gave up one run, but the offense couldn't score comes to mind as one recent example of that.
Of course a lot of this is highly subjective. It's reasonable to assume that the offense will score more runs off of a 5th starter than Cliff Lee, but that is why a pitcher's win/loss record is not a great indicator of talent, because it doesn't tell the whole story. Check out Roy Halladay's stats if you need a reminder of that. Sometimes it helps to be lucky rather than good, I guess.
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You'd expect that the Yanks would score less off of the top of the rotation starters
but why do they score around 6 R per game against #1 and #3 starters when they hit for CC and Andy?
Why only 4 runs per when they hit against #4 starters with Javy pitching? Yea, that would seem that getting “Javy’d” exists. When you’re only scoring 4R/game against 4th starters….there just seems to be some BS in there that a pitcher doesn’t get run support.
But that’s baseball I guess. And it shows you how much Joe Morgan is an idiot since he seems to base everything on rating a pitcher by their record.
After the first week of the seasons the rotations don’t really match up 1s and 2s any more. The schedule is too uneven for that line of thinking to be true.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I really put the blame on a combination of pacing and pressure.
Go to the plate feeling like you need to ‘do something’ can spoil everything for a hitter. AJ and Javy both take a long time on the hill, and seem to often give up early leads.
Also, let’s assume (I believe this to be true) that all or nearly all of the Yanks’ blowout losses this season have come with AJ or Javy on the hill. WWJD’s approach is penalizing AJ and Javy when Joe G puts in Sergio Mitre instread of Mariano Rivera.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Depending on how you define a blowout
I would define a blowout as allowing 10+ runs in a game (by the team), in which AJ has started 3 games and CC and Hughes both have started 1 each.
WWJD’s approach doesn’t penalize them because it doesn’t matter who pitched in relief. She’s saying regardless of relief pitchers, Javy is still only averaging 4.25 runs of support and AJ is still only averaging 4.32 runs of support. In fact, it should be stated that the run support is for the starters and the relief staff in the games they start.
That’s why I wasn’t upset with Javy in his last outing. He got his alloted 4 runs of support for the game. Unfortunately, he couldn’t hold it, but I had no doubt that he wasn’t getting much more. Plus, he only pitched 3 innings, so he couldn’t get a win anyway. Fortunately, the Yankees came back much later in the game to make a winner out of Boone Logan (whom they gave 5 runs of support, ha ha).
Let me try saying it a different way, now that I’m less sleepy.
Which pitchers are used later in the game matters, and what hitters are used matters.
I’d like to see how often Cervelli is in the linup with each pitcher. I suspect some of the lower offensive output comes from Jorge sitting.
I’d like to see how often the Yanks best hitters get pulled for a couple innings when the team is down by a bunch of runs late, and which pitcher is effected.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
By that same logic
it’s even worse, because offensively, Girardi is giving up on even making an attempt to win the game, unless the backups have a great 1/2 game.
Cervelli has been in the lineup a lot, but so has Posada as the DH. I’ll see if I can do some research for you and see what I turn up.
I still think the fact that if AJ or Javy struggles and Girardi gives up, it’s still indicative of those pitchers not getting run support from the team.
Its no surprise that the highest run averages are for our best pitchers. i think that CC gets what he deserves. he always gives the yanks 7 innings. Hughes and Pettite have had electric stuff this year. Javy has had a couple rough stretches. Burnetts been awful all season. Nevertheless, 4.5 runs is plenty and we should be winning AJ/Vasquezs starts
I was going to say something about
how 4.5 runs per game really isn’t enough, especially in the AL East, but I can’t figure out which stats can tell me how many runs other teams score on average per game. If anyone can tell me where to find that, or if I have to calculate it myself, I’d be grateful.
How about this:
Against contenders, 4.25 to 4.32 runs is not enough. These are the earned runs allowed splits against the Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Twins, and Rangers.
Rays: 5.34
Red Sox: 4.04
Blue Jays: 4.53
Twins: 3.4
Rangers: 3.4
So, when we play the Red Sox, the Jays, and the Rays, 4.25 runs is rarely enough. Not to mention the 4.25 runs is an average, meaning sometimes they score none, and sometimes they might score 8.
agree with you here
my point is 4 is enough for CC, Andy, and Phil usually. Against contendors of course you want 7-9 runs
to clarify
those splits are how many earned runs have been allowed by the Yankees pitching staff (as a whole) this season
Jscape, is this what you were looking for?
I’m just focusing on Javy as an example, because he has a lower run support average than even AJ.
Only looking at losses where he surrendered 5 earned runs or less:
4/14 @ TB 3-5 L
4ER
5.1 IP
Yankees scored 1 R while he pitched
no defensive/offensive subs
4/25 @ LAA 4-8 L
5 ER
3.2 IP
Yankees scored 3 in 2nd, 1 in 6th
Gardner replaced Thames late (platoon)
Cervelli at C
Posada at DH
5/1 CHW 6-7 L
5 ER
only 3 IP
Yankees score 1 R in 3 innings then 5 R after he is pulled
Posada at C
subs late for Grandy
5/12 @ DET 0-2 L
2 ER
7 IP
Yankees score 0
Posada C
Russo PR for Posada late
5/27 @ MIN 2-8 L
5 ER
5.2 IP
Yankees score 2
Cervelli C
Russo LF
Miranda DH
no subs
6/18 METS 0-4 L
1 ER
7 IP
Yankees score 0 (shutout 4-0)
Posada DH
Cervelli C (2-4 day at the plate)
Huffman/Granderson platoon
6/30 SEA 0-7 L
3 ER
6 IP
Yankees score 0 (shutout 7-0)
late defensive subs for Jeter, Teixiera, and A-Rod
Cervelli C
Posada DH
7/10 @ SEA 4-1 L
0 ER
7 IP
Yankees score 1 in 3rd (4-1 loss)
Joba blew this game with 4 ER in 8th
Jeter PH for Cervelli
Posada PH for Pena
8/6 BOS 3-6 L
3 ER
5.1 IP
1 error by Cervelli led to 6 total runs allowed while Vazquez was pitching
Cervelli at C
Posada late PH for Cervelli
8/16 DET 1-3 L
2 ER
4 IP
Yankees don’t score until the 9th with 1 run (3-1 loss)
A-Rod pulled due to injury
Cervelli C/3B
Posada DH/C
So, he had 2 games that were mainly lost by either an error (Cervelli) or the bullpen (Joba). He had 6 of his 9 losses where he allowed 3 or fewer earned runs, but of those 6 games, the offense scored 0 runs three times for the whole game, and scored 3 or fewer runs while he pitched 4 times (not including the shutouts).
No decisions that the Yankees won:
6/23 @ ARI
6-5 win
5 IP 4 ER
Yankees score 2 R while he pitched, 4 runs after he was pulled
7/31 @ TB
5-4 win
6.1 IP
4 ER
Yankees score 4 while he pitched and 1 in the top of the 9th
8/11 @ TEX
7-6 win
4.1 IP 6 ER (ineligible for win)
Yankees score 1 while he pitched and 6 after
- This is the only game that the Yankees won after Vazquez had given up 6+ earned runs.
8/21 SEA
9-5 win
3.1 IP (again ineligible for win)
4 ER
Yankees score 4 in 1st, and 5 in the 7th and 8th innings.
Yes, that’s getting at it. So now I’d go look at the 7 or 8 games where he pitched well enough to win 5+ innings of 3ER or less, and look at who he was matched up against.
Maybe Javy has the short straw this year and is facing the other team’s #1 a disproportionate number of times?
If so, should Joe G. be doing more to stack up the rotation so that CC faces the top pitchers in the league more often?
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I get what you're saying
Javy has matched up with:
Losses with 5+ innings of 3 ER or less:
5/12 L 0-2 @ DET
vs Rick Porcello
6/18 L 0-4 Mets
vs Hisanori Takahashi
6/30 L 0-7 SEA
vs Felix Hernandez
7/10 L 4-1 @ SEA
vs Felix Hernandez
8/6 L 3-6 BOS
vs Clay Buchholz
8/16 L 3-1 DET
vs Max Scherzer
Wins with 5+ innings of 3 ER or less (plus opponent starting pitcher):
4/20 7-3 @OAK
5.1 IP
3 ER
vs. Gio Gonzalez
5/21 2-1 @ NYM
6 IP
0 ER
vs. Hisanori Takahashi
6/1 3-1 BAL
7 IP
1 ER
vs. Brian Matusz
6/6 4-3 @ TOR
7 IP
2 ER
vs Brandon Morrow
6/12 9-3 Houston
7 IP
3 ER
vs Wandy Rodriguez
7/5 3-1 @ OAK
7 IP
1 ER
vs Ben Sheets
7/26 3-2 @ CLE
7 IP
2 ER
vs Jake Westbrook
With this data, even in his wins, the Yankee offense only scored 4+ runs in 3 of his starts, and scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of his starts. I’m not pleased with the fact that Vazquez went head to head with King Felix twice, but none of his wins are against #1, #2, or #3 starters. In fact, none of the wins are against elite pitchers, in my estimation. And the offense still couldn’t do much for him except 3 times.
If you want another metric to look at, perhaps pitchers who work more quickly get more run support. The players claim to like it.
They also claim to play better defense when they’re not rocking back on their heels, waiting for the pitcher to deliver to the plate. I know the problem with this is that length of game is affected by home team not batting in the bottom of the 9th, your own team batting forever (part of run support itself), effectiveness and speed of opposing pitcher.
Put another way, do Hughes and Pettitte get more run support because they work faster?
by designatedquitter on Aug 24, 2010 4:42 PM EDT reply actions
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