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The Value of a Win.....With Pictures!

Serious business.

Mood Music (Salty language warning) - Big Poppa by Notorious B.I.G.

The financial rules for the Yankees are different than for every other team in the game.  We are the biggest of the big market teams and we get to overpay for free agents and swallow bad contracts without too much of a hiccup.  But, with the way the current system is set up (team controlled years for young players) there is a massive disparity in the salaries that young players get.  This is why prospects are so incredibly valuable in today's game of free agency.

Free agency is basically an overpaying auction.  You overpay for an older player, they're worth it for a few years, and then you stomach the bad contract at the end of the deal and often end up making a "salary dump" type trade.  But a failed free agent might cost you $10-$15 million dollars a year, eating away at most teams ability to compete.  A failed prospect costs you $400,000, and you can usually just throw them back into the AAA pond.

Putting out a $200 million team every season makes it a lot easier for the Yankees to field a winner, there's no point in denying it.  For all teams, however, there are budget limits, and a need to cut costs (just ask Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui).  But how is the money that is put into the team being spent?   And how does that money translate into results on the field?

After the jump is a chart and two pie (yes, pie) graphs answering those questions!

Star-divide

Alright, here's a table of the Yankees 2010 salaries (a few guys who have been up and down are left off, but it's most of them), and also their WAR up until this point in the season:

41290_152882538059675_100000137908437_493903_6636265_n_medium

As you can see by the lines, I split the players into three sections, veterans who make over $10MM, veterans who make less than $10MM, and young players still under team control.  Here is the breakdown of how these three groups are paid, and how they have produced:

40522_152868948061034_100000137908437_493874_8355872_n_medium40522_152868951394367_100000137908437_493875_7923985_n_medium

So, as you can see, young players make up an absolutely tiny fraction of the payroll, and yet, contribute over 20% of the production to the team, and that's even with an extremely veteran heavy team like the Yankees.  That's why they're so valuable, that's why you don't trade Jesus Montero for a rental, and that's why prospects are such a big deal.  And, if you hadn't noticed, the Yankees rise to the top has coincided with building back up the farm system instead of flipping every young player for aging veterans.

Your thoughts and comments are welcome.  Oh, and I got my info from the greatest baseball database ever, Fangraphs.

[Please no "WAR IS STOOPID" posts, it has nothing to do with the point of the article. It's just a quick and easy way to compare production]

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Very good. This post puts into a New York Cheesecake- style graph 2 things that I have been thinking all along-

1) The cheaper players are contributing much more value than their salaries;

2) I could go for a slice of cheesecake right now.

Thanks again

by designatedquitter on Aug 20, 2010 12:18 PM EDT reply actions  

WAR IS STOO...oh

I almost walked right into that one.

But really, by looking at those graphs you can begin to understand how middle-of-the-road in payroll teams like the Twins can be so good year in and year out, while big market/big spenders like the Mets can perpetually struggle. Draft smart and spend smart and you can be a perennial playoff team with a sub-$100 million payroll. Just throw money at the your problems and you will be a middle of the pack team with a $150 million payroll.

Even on the mighty spending Yankees, those huge free agent splashes account for less than half of the total WAR, and that includes the home-grown guys like Jeter and Jorge.

I also really like how the top two WAR players on the team are both home grown and one of them is making less than half a million.

by GMan83201 on Aug 20, 2010 12:24 PM EDT reply actions  

rookie contracts

are one thing the MLB does right. u look at the NFL and sam bradford is getting like 50 million guaranteed without playing a down. shit is ridonkulous.

A thousand lips. A thousand tongues. A thousand throats. A thousand lungs. A thousand ways to make it true. I want to do terrible things to you.

by Nine Inch Nails on Aug 20, 2010 12:41 PM EDT reply actions  

The NBA does it well too with the rookie payscale depending on where the player was drafted

I hate how in the NFL JaMarcus Russell made more money than, say, Drew Brees or Ryan Grant.

by GMan83201 on Aug 20, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think this tells the whole story, because I think the real value of the Yanks’ high payroll is in their ability to buy a playoff spot year after year after year.
I’d like to see a line graph segmenting WAR your 3 tiers year to year over the last 5-7 years. A $200M payroll means never having to say ‘rebuild.’

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Aug 20, 2010 12:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Sounds like a job for me and my buddy Microsoft Excel.

Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com

by Lord Duggan on Aug 20, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's about the mix of the RIGHT veterans and the RIGHT young players

What the Yankees used to do wrong was sign mediocre veterans to fill roles that should ordinarily be easy to fill from within the organization.

Take the ’04 Yankees – excluding Mariano Rivera, they spent a whopping $16.25 million on relief pitching, and outside of Tom Gordon, none of them were really that good.

That’s the problem. Like Duggan said, if you have a $400k salary guy and he sucks, you send him back to the minors, no harm no foul.

by 3460kuri on Aug 20, 2010 1:00 PM EDT reply actions  

where the value is at

speaking of money, i have made over $3000 following the baron capper at bettor believeit.com. He is 12-1 in his last 13 MLB picks.

by Cowboys3588 on Aug 20, 2010 1:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Cowboys huh?

Photoshop Gallery: http://img704.imageshack.us/g/ggbg.jpg/

by Jedi Master A-Rod on Aug 20, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

HAMMERTIME

"Shaw, Williams, prepared to venture down the left. There's a good ball in for Tony Morley. Oh, it must be and it is! It's Peter Withe"
http://twitter.com/MattF15

by MattF15 on Aug 20, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

WAR isn't stupid

I can see why some people are skeptical of it though. Does anyone have a link to a very detailed overview of how it’s calculated?

A supporter of the MFY.

by Edgware on Aug 20, 2010 1:56 PM EDT reply actions  

WAR as a concept works

The main contention with it isn’t necessarily how it’s calculated but more what components are used in its calculations. Systems for determining runs above replacement via hitting are generally stable and agree with each other with few exceptions. The problems come with defense and pitching. A perfect example is how Fangraphs has Josh Hamilton a full 2 wins better than B-R does almost completely as a result of both sites using different defensive metrics in their calculations. Fangraphs UZR has Hamilton at +7, B-R has him at -7. For pitchers this gets even dicier. Do you use ERA, a flawed statistic for many reasons? Do you use FIP, which poseesses predictive value but has questionable utility in reflecting actual results? Do you use something else? The components used in a given calculation of WAR can vary, causing the result to vary to sometimes absurd degrees. Until we figure out which components for pitching and defense tell the story the best like we generally do for hitting, those issues will remain.

by jman2050 on Aug 20, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

A criticism that I have of WAR

…is that it does a poor job of comparing players across time. On a yearly basis it’s a great way to evaluate talent and production, and within eras it’s a good way to figure out who the “best” players are. And in the aggregate it probably works (Ruth is clearly better than Jason Kendall, and war identifies this), but do players from earlier eras consistently have such high WAR totals because they were objectively better, or because the talent pool was weaker?

We’re still looking for a good way to compare players across time, even hitters. Probably a promising place to start will be things like LD%, HR distance etc.

by PortlandYankee on Aug 20, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL Salty Language.

♪ They got... the mustard.... OUT! ♫
♫ They got the mustard out! ♪

by noonoo on Aug 20, 2010 2:30 PM EDT reply actions  

I liked the pictures :)

I love you, but mostly I love the children we're about to have...

by TheMelkman on Aug 20, 2010 2:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Duggan... you would pick B.I.G.

"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III

by Chris McKeown on Aug 21, 2010 12:31 AM EDT reply actions  

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