Why Does A Pitcher's Record Matter?
by Chris McKeown on Aug 13, 2010 11:59 AM EDT
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Ever since joining Pinstripe Alley, I have gained a much better perspective on baseball. I was introduced to Sabermetric types of statistics and now understand how baseball can be broken down so many different ways. I also learned that the value of a win and a loss for a pitcher just simply doesn't matter anymore. Below, I will list two critical reasons as to why this holds true.
1) Run Support - There is a statistic for pitchers (that pitchers really have no impact on) that lists how many runs, on average, are scored per game behind that particular pitcher. This is the number one reason wins and losses mean nothing. Some pitchers have more good fortune than others. Pitchers on excellent teams (CC Sabathia, Jon Lester) have offenses behind them that are capable of scoring a boatload of runs every day. Other pitchers (Felix Hernandez, Ted Lilly) have mediocre or flatout terrible offenses behind them that just aren't formidable or dominant. Therefore, run support plays a huge outcome on the game.
Here's a common situation: Zack Greinke tosses 8 innings against the LA Angels on May 9, 2009 and allows 1 run on 4 hits, 0 walks while striking out 5. Greinke was awarded a loss because the Royals could not score a run for him. He pitched an excellent game, but his offense couldn't do their part... so he was given the L.
2) Defense - Other than homeruns, strikeouts and walks... a pitcher has little to no effect on how the game unfolds. Theoretically, every position player should be able to make plays on balls hit to them. Some players aren't fast enough to balls scorched down the line and that can be the difference between a single, double or triple. Misreading hits leads to the exact same thing. Are all misread plays listed as errors which, in turn, lead to unearned runs? Absolutely not. Having a great defense behind you, as a pitcher, is also key to picking up wins.
My main problem with the misconception of a pitcher's record is that it is not an individual accomplishment. Most of it depends on the rest of the team. There are many statistics that also are dependent on the performances of other players, but W/L takes the cake. Take, for example, Roy Oswalt. He had 20 starts this year for the Houston Astros before being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies. His record was 6-12 when he was traded, despite a relatively great ERA of 3.42 and a ridiculous 8.37 K/9 (2.3 BB/9). I wonder why his record was so poor... maybe because the Astros only scored 3.22 runs per game behind him? That's worst run support in MLB. Oswalt has lost wins left and right during his career in Houston due to the fact that they have never really had a good offense to support him. Those wins that never were could drastically affect whether or not he makes the hall of fame one day. Vice versa, not-so-special pitchers can possibly win more games and their statistics look better.
Lets take a look at run support around the league and how many wins pitchers have...
Most run support behind them. Min 160 innings pitched.
1) CC Sabathia. Yankees average 7.11 runs when he pitches. His record is 15-5. ERA is 3.14.
2) Chris Carpenter. Cardinals average 6.63 runs when he pitches. His record is 13-3. ERA is 2.89.
3) Adam Wainwright. Cardinals average 6.48 runs when he pitches. His record is 17-6. ERA is 1.99.
4) Bronson Arroyo. Reds scored 6.13 runs when he pitches. His record is 12-7. ERA is 3.94.
5) Carl Pavano (yes, Pavano). Twins score 6.07 runs when he pitches. His record is 14-7. ERA is 3.28.
Least run support behind them. Min 160 innings pitched.
1) Felix Hernandez. Mariners score 3.85 runs when he pitches. His record is 8-9. ERA is 2.71.
2) Johan Santana. Mets score 4.16 runs when he pitches. His record is 10-6. ERA is 2.89.
3) Zack Greinke. Royals score 4.39 runs when he pitches. His record is 7-11. ERA is 3.99.
4) Cliff Lee. Mariners/Rangers score 4.69 when he pitches. His record is 10-5. ERA is 2.57.
5) Matt Cain. Giants score 4.89 when he pitches. His record is 9-9. ERA is 3.11.
Due to run support, Carl Pavano looks just as good as, if not better, than Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana, and Matt Cain. A pitcher's record is a foolish way to compare pitchers. Do I have an idea for an alternative? Not really. It just doesn't seem fair that some pitchers are awarded more wins than others due to the fact that they are on a better team, so they themselves are not necessarily better than the pitcher on a poorer team.
I truly believe that, when it comes time to vote for Cy Young recipient... a pitcher's record should not be weighed heavily at all.
Random: Phil Hughes garners 9.72 runs thanks to the Yankee offense. No wonder he's 13-5.
Thoughts? Suggestions?
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Yes and No.
No in that it doesn’t measure individual success. Felix Hernandez is NOT a “.500 pitcher” but his record says so.
The one thing it shows, for the most part, is that a pitcher is getting deep enough in the game to ear a decision. Of course there is the Dice-K effect; throwing 100 pitches in 5 innings, but the offense and bullpen are good enough for it to add up to 18 wins.
It does show team success tho. The Yanks have all these guys in double digit wins cuz the team is good.
But its funny that idiots like Joe Morgan go and judge a pitcher’s success by their record. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s never even heard of Zach Grienke or he’s never thought that bad teams can have a good pitcher or 2 with bad records.
I agree with everything you said
I wanted to portray how overrated W/L is though so I didn’t really say much good about it.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 13, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree with everything you said Yankees2
The same can be said for saves. A closer comes in with a 3 run lead, gives up 2 runs and still gets a save. Very overrated stat.
"Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier, the cigars taste better. The trees are greener."
Good point sir
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 13, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Win *
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 14, 2010 11:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
13-5 looks prettier than 8-7
Yankees all day.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
"If you're not doing it right, you're doing it wrong. And there's no in between." ~Mark "Lunch" McKenzie
wins/losses
are the worst stat in baseball and I find it funny people refer to a stat formulated in the 1800’s just because.
Although the good pitchers over time do achieve good W/L records as things normalize.
RU RAH RAH
RU RAH RAH
you want alternatives?
look at ERA, WHIP, K/BB and K/9, HR/9, innings pitched and quality starts.
to me whip is one of the most underrated pitching statistics in baseball. same with quality starts. baserunners per inning and how many times you throw 6 IP while allowing 3 ER or less can generally give you a pretty good estimation of how well a pitcher can keep you in a game.
idk, W/L are stupid. a pitcher could technically not allow a hit, not walk anybody, and have the other team score 1 run or more if the defense makes a few errors. if the opposing pitcher throws a shutout, the guy who just threw a no hitter takes a loss. thats absurd.
I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Aug 13, 2010 7:55 PM EDT reply actions
Wins matter
Sure, it’s not a great stat to use (unless you are a fan of wagons/wagoning/wagonization) but wins matter.
The pitchers goal every game is to pitch so that his team can win the game. Sure, getting a good ERA is an advantage, but the goal is to win the game. Wins are an indication of whether or not you kept your team in the game and made it possible for them to win. Simple enough, I know, but I don’t think you can say that wins aren’t important because every game you win your team wins. Every game you lose your team loses. In the end, that is what matters, winning ballgames.
If we were to talk about which is the best indicator of a pitchers talent, wins isn’t relevant.
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Wins matter AS A TEAM, yes
They aren’t alway indicative of a pitcher keeping his team in the game.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 14, 2010 12:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Pitcher A: 19-7 record, 4.23 ERA
Pitcher B: 11-10 record, 2.87 ERA
I will take B every time.
Did you know Joe Morgan thinks Cano will win a batting title one day?
You really have to look at the whole picture of it though
There’s much more to a pitcher than a record and ERA. So much more that this is just not a good comparison.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 14, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll take the "W"s every time
A pitcher who is 19-7 with a 4.23 ERA may have a higher ERA for the fact that obviously he’d be pitching with run support and is probably throwing more strikes and doing less nibbling. I can’t make sense of someone saying they’ll take an 11-10 pitcher over a 19-7 pitcher. I want to win, regardless of a pitcher’s stats. I don’t want to be Greinke and the Royals.
so if A is Carlos Silva and B is Roy Halladay, you take Carlos Silva?
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 14, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I know you're just trying to defend your point now
So I won’t even bother saying how ridiculous that is.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 14, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
That doesn't make sense
Roy Halladay is a much better pitcher than Silva. Clearly with an ERA that low he has done his job to keep his team in games… why would you NOT take him?
So,
let me get this right. You guys want our team to be 11-10 when a guy pitches, because his ERA is lower, than have our team be 19-7 with a pitcher with a higher ERA…OoooooooKaaaaaaaayyy.
Ok, let's use your reasoning now...
Which of the following pitchers would you take ?
Pitcher A: 5-0 35 saves
Pitcher B: 3-1 33 saves
Pitcher C: 6-2 29 saves
Pitcher D: 4-2 26 saves
Pitcher E: 4-2 25 saves
Pitcher F: 3-2 24 saves
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 14, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me list ERAs too.. this part should give it away
Pitcher A: ERA 1.78
Pitcher B: ERA 2.10
Pitcher C: ERA 1.74
Pitcher D: ERA 3.17
Pitcher E: ERA 2.24
Pitcher F: ERA 1.06
But… ERAs don’t matter to you.. so using your metric, Pitcher A is overall the best.. because his team is 5-0 when he’s on the mound and he has the most saves… right?
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 14, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
that's not the point
unless we’re talking about the NL, the pitcher other then pitching doesn’t help himself win (although its usually marginal anyway).
And I’d think that the A vs. B thing was talking about 2 pitchers on different teams.
Tho even if they’re on the same team, pitcher A is not an ace although his 19-7 says it. It says he’s got a ton of run support (or a couple of atrocious starts that bumped up the ERA).
That’s why you can’t say pitcher A is better, and that’s the point of saying judging and comparing pitchers based on record is an extremely Joe Morgan thing to do. It makes no sense.
Taking the worse pitcher even tho his record is higher…you’re gonna lose if you actually have him face an ace. Cuz he’s not an ace.
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 14, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 for Morgan reference
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 14, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I get it. I am on your side. My point was it was stated that someone would take a pitcher at 11-10 instead of 19-7. ERA, to me, is the most important stat, but when put in the context of A vs. B and 11-10 vs. 19-7, I’ll take the wins.
I think Wins-Losses are more important for a team not a pitcher.
The pitcher could have pitched a a great game, but maybe got no run support and got the loss or he could have pitched horribly, but got a lot of run support so he got the win. A pitchers record is not as important as the ERA. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, statistics show a lot, but not everything.
"Welcome to the real world, JACKASS!"-Andy Samberg
The point I'm trying to make
Is that wins and losses are not always indicative of a starting pitcher’s performance. Roy Oswalt is the best example.. being 6-12 with the Astros when he could easily have been 12-6 with the Yankees.
To compare starting pitchers using W/L is somewhat foolish.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
It is silly to compare pitchers by only one stat...
no matter what it is. With that being said, a lot of baseball is just plain luck. If someone can pull off a 20 win season with a +4 ERA, I want that lucky motherf*er on my team.
That's still missing the point
But alright
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 15, 2010 1:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Greinke won the Cy Young, so at least some people must think that this is an obvious point.
Likewise, Robin Roberts made the Hall of Famous Guys with a barely above .500 record pitching for the crapulous Phillies of the fifties.
The examples of run support cited in the text are the 5 extremes. For pitchers with run support in the fat part of the bell curve, the ERA to win correlation is undoubtedly stronger.
by designatedquitter on Aug 16, 2010 2:46 PM EDT reply actions
So if you could pick a single stat to quickly eval a pitcher what would it be?
I keep thinking WHiP would be the single most useful stat since it basically show how many runners get on in an inning. But then again what if you have a pitcher who tends to give up a lot of walks but tends to work out of jams well? That WHiP isn’t very telling either. Hard to metric quickly, it is one of those aggregate positions.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Aug 16, 2010 5:58 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah it really is difficult to pinpoint the most accurate depiction of a pitcher through 1 stat
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 16, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I would certainly choose FIP or xFIP, but there’s really no reason to base anything on one stat and one stat alone. I like to look at as much of the statistical picture as I can, but the first place I look is FIP.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
I would agree with that
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 17, 2010 10:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wins aren't completely irrelevant
They’re one of the triple crown stats. Historically, good triple crown stats have always been seen favorably. They’re not the best metric for measuring a pitcher’s effectiveness, but there is no “best metric.” I happen to be pretty partial to WAR as a general stat, but I don’t tout it as a be all end all metric. With pitchers and position players, I look at the list in terms of career WAR and sometimes have the reaction, “Wow. I never would have guessed it was that high.”
Some pitchers have had godlike seasons in terms of WAR. Pedro Martinez had a 10.1 WAR season in 2000. Zach Greinke is the only pitcher in either league since then to post a WAR of at least 9.0. Of course, it’s tough to top seasons like those had by Bob Gibson in 1968 (the great 1.12 ERA season) and 1969. In the 20th century, only two pitchers had seasons that topped 12.0 WAR and that was Steve Carlton in 1972 (12.2) and Walter Johnson in 1913 (12.4). Of course, Johnson’s 1913 season was just flat out legendary.
But even I wouldn’t use WAR as a be all end all stat. Treat everything like an evaluation report, which takes multiple factors into account. Compressing everything into a single metric like WAR or win shares doesn’t always tell you everything you need to know.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
Free BLou
Understood
However, I still don’t feel that W/L are always credited fairly.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 17, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
triple crown stats are over rated
The triple crown stats are wins, strikeouts, and ERA. The only one of those three that is entirely within the pitcher’s control is strikeouts. Wins and ERA are both dependent on the performance of the rest of the team.
ERA can be indicative of a pitcher’s performance, but it doesn’t factor in a lot of variables that can contribute to earned runs: small ballparks, misplayed balls in play that are scored as hits, etc. Obviously errors would lead to unearned runs and not be included in ERA.
Wins, likewise, are more indicative of a team’s performance than a pitcher’s. Look at Phil Hughes this year. How many times has the offense bailed him out of games where he would have lost with no or less run support? The Yankees average 6.95 runs per game when he pitches, and he has given up (earned) 5 or more runs 5 times. Which means, he didn’t pitch particularly well in those games, but the offense overcame his pitching and allowed him to get a win. Conversely, if the offense hadn’t shown up for those poorly pitched games, he’d be sitting at 9-10 instead of 10-5.
Crazily, Hughes also had 5 games where the offense scored 10 or more runs. Give those runs to Vazquez or AJ, and we have two more 11 game winners.
I agree WAR doesn’t tell the whole story either, but that’s more about value to the team, and also factors in defensive ability and performance in high leverage situations. That’s a different ball of wax than this win record debate.
This.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 18, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Triple Crown stats are overrated
But there are not, however, completely irrelevant. Don’t believe me? Ask Bert Blyleven, who remains on the outside looking in despite many factors that would indicate that he belongs in Cooperstown simply because he fell 13 wins short of 300. That said, we have to try to look at the bigger picture here.
Why is a pitcher getting wins? You could investigate a lot of reasons for this. There are many team reasons, such as the quality of the defense, ballpark factors, and/or the quantity of run support. The quality of the pitcher’s performance also has to come into play as well. It’s a tricky statistic because not all wins and losses are created equal. A lot of factors also play into earned run average simply because like wins, not all earned runs are created equal.
There’s a reason I would rather do a full evaluation of the pitcher rather than just have a quick glance at the Triple Crown stats like some members of the BBWAA are guilty of doing. If you have further questions, taking a glance at how his teammates are doing during his games can give you more information. It’s not as easy as it seems, but not numbers are created equal. WAR is also a big help in these investigations.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
Free BLou
But all in all
I think we’re just making the same or similar points here.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
Free BLou
yeah, I think we're on the same page
I was just saying that just because it’s a triple crown statistic, that doesn’t make it a be-all end-all statistic, like you said.
It’s pretty sad that the BBWAA writers (and voters) don’t take the time to fully evaluate pitchers and teams, but I guess they have deadlines to meet and website hits to get (and papers and magazines to sell). It’s especially disappointing when the triple crown stats are all that’s looked at for HoF consideration, or Cy Young voting (which they did right last year with Grienke).
One last opinion of mine to share is that awarding a pitcher a win is like awarding the batter who hits a walk-off or game winning hit the win. It’s still a team effort to win the game. You can pitch a no-hitter but if the offense doesn’t score, you’re not going to win. It’s a team game. It’s not tennis or golf or bowling. It’s 9 starters, and 16 guys on the bench that play and win or lose games (along with the manager making decisions).
It’s completely different when, like last year Aceves was 10-1 after replacing Joba in the 3rd/4th inning and the team had a .909 winning percentage when he was on the mound. Of course, that was last year when the Yankees led the league in late game offense. But, still, the expression of “the team won 10 out of 11 times with Alfredo Aceves pitching” is more team friendly than “Alfredo Aceves won 10 out of 11 decisions in relief of Joba Chamberlain.”
Phil Hughes is 15-5. Is that important?
For whatever reason, the Yankees win when he’s out there. If Joba were making those starts, what would the Yankees record be in the same games? How depleted would the bullpen be coming in every time with one out in the 5th because Joba has thrown 110 pitches to get 13 outs?
Is Hughes’ 3.9 ERA a better indicator of how he has actually pitched? I think so.
by designatedquitter on Aug 20, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
See, you said it right
“the Yankees win when he’s out there” not “Hughes won the game.”
That’s the biggest contention that wins should not be part of a pitcher’s triple slash line, because the team has to perform around him, so it’s a team stat.
You could have put Vazquez or Burnett in that same question about Joba. Even Dustin Moseley gets more run support than Vazquez has. The Yankees have averaged 6.7 runs of support for Moseley when he starts versus 3.77 for Vazquez. Granted, Moseley’s sample size is small, but that’s a huge difference of run support that contributes to 3 of his wins (they scored 7+ runs in each of his starts that they won).
If the team is afraid that they will lose if they don't put up 7 runs, and that causes them to do so, that's a positive effect from that pitcher.
by designatedquitter on Aug 20, 2010 4:53 PM EDT reply actions
Let’s start Igawa then. The offense will never let up.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
+1
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 21, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
its more of facing 4th and 5th starters
then the team being “afraid”.
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 20, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
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