Lance Berkman trade analysis
by Discofever on Jul 30, 2010 6:41 PM EDT
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PrintIt appears as though a Lance Berkman to New York trade is all but done. The biscuit is cooked and all they need to do is spread the butter.
As a Yankees fan, I am PUMPED about this trade. We are reportedly not giving up any significant “prospects” up to acquire Berkman, in exchange for eating his remaining salary. He will strictly be a two (err three) month rental, meaning the Yankees will buy him out for $2mil after the season and receive a draft pick- Berkman is a type B free agent- after he declines their arbitration offer.
Berkman is not the hitter he once was. He has been on the decline for the past couple seasons and it shouldn’t come as a surprise since he is getting up their in age. But he still has a line (BA/OBP/SLG/wOBA/wRC+) of .245/.372/.436/.356/123. A far cry from his prime, but a solid addition to any teams lineup.
In 214 more PA, ZiPS believe his line will be .268/.386/.486/.383. I will gladly welcome that production from our DH spot, which has been a rotation of Juan Miranda, Marcus Thames, Colin Curtis, and occasionally Jorge Posada. Berkman provides a relatively big upgrade in our DH spot, so counting the playoffs, lets assume he produces 1 WAR as a Yankee. That may be optimistic since his value will be limited as a DH compared to a first baseman, but I am including October along with August and September. So he will produce $4mil-$5mil in value (depending on how much you value his upgrade over the current DH rotation the Yankees have). He will be about $5mil for the rest of the season, and $2mil when he is bought out. The Yankees will also receive a compensation pick once Berkman leaves. So Lance Berkman’s total net value to New York is about $0.0. That might seem bad for New York, but that’s only because he is being paid a decent amount for only three months of work. But as stated, he will produce and that is what makes Berkman a good addition.
Meanwhile, Ken Davidoff says the Astros will get a no-name prospect. That makes sense Berkman has a break even net value. So the Astros shouldn’t really expect anybody of worth in return. Rather, Houston should be glad they could unload his contract from the payroll.
Overall, it’s a win-win and I am doing circles in my mother’s basement.
UPDATE: IT'S OFFICIAL!!!11111!!1
UPDATE II: Astros are pretty much picking up the contest. We used just Houston as toilet paper.
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i do not believe we will get a compensation pick
seeing as Cashman would never offer him arbitration after the season
because if accepted we would have to pay him 15 mil next season
Berkman is a good player but hes not worth that much
by Brian5517209 on Jul 30, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely isn't worth that
Might be worth half
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Makes sense...
Berkman and Cash both are on board as to not coming back in 2011. Unless Berkman is a dick he won’t accept arbitration.
RU RAH RAH
RU RAH RAH
I think he wants to go back to the Astros
He is mandating that is option is declined
i believe so
i believe we get a pick if he signs elsewhere before the arbitration window ends, and we can offer arb to any player that is leaving. he is leaving.
RU RAH RAH
RU RAH RAH
That'd be nice
Idk though if that’s true
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 31, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Often, agents negotiate a no option/ no arb clause for their pick free agents, to give teams further incentive to pick up the expensive option.
I haven’t heard Berkman’s status.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Berkman’s 2011 $15m option was a club option but it was changed into a mutual option after the trade.
by Scooby Snacks on Aug 1, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I think part of agreeing to be brought here was that no Arb and no option would be added.
by Michael Uhlhorn on Aug 2, 2010 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Not a big Berkman guy, but he makes us better and he doesnt cost much
Either the change of scenery will do him good or you guys are going to kill Cashman and Berkman. I saw earlier this being compared to the Yanks bringing Sexson, that is a joke. Berkman isnt a scrap heap guy.
.351 OBP
Who are we giving up or him?
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I just hope
he doesnt revert back to his 08/09 version and that the player to be named later doesnt turn out to be good
defense
good hitter?
As always, depends on who…but I’d assume he’s better then Thames and Colin Curtis
Go New York Go!
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 30, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
sure as hell got a strong bench with Kearns and Berkman now
Go New York Go!
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 30, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Well, Johnson… if he ever comes back
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Although I'd love to see the Yankees add a speedy man to the bench.. but let's not get greedy
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
And Austin Keans too
The Yankees also acquired Austin Kearns from the Indians tonight for a PTBNL I believe. They’re replacing Colin Curtis and Juan Miranda with Keans and Berkman basically which is an improvement.
Berkman – it’s not a huge move, but for the price (only a couple mil for the rest of the season and Mark Melancon who they clearly do not like) it’s hard to argue with. Berkman can DH 4 or 5 days a week which would still give Posada a couple games at DH. He’s not the hitter he was but he can still add something out of the 7th spot where he’ll most likely hit for us. It would be nice if he could play some OF, but I doubt it since he hasn’t since 2007. He’d probably be even worse than Thames out there.
Kearns – Solid 4th OF. He’s a right handed bat which fits our roster better than Colin Curtis and he provides better than average defense at both corner OF’s. Against a tough lefty, Girardi can potentially substitute Kearns and Thames for Grandy and Berkman who are both hitting under .215 vs. lefties.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jul 30, 2010 10:52 PM EDT reply actions
Agreed
Kearns is at least a useful defensive corner OF with limited power. Put him on the bench with Pena & Thames it becomes a more useful bench.
by Iggy Poptart on Jul 30, 2010 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Yanks are trying to un-screw themselves against good LH pitching
and you do that by getting RH bats that can hit LHers well. Kearns and Thames can, so now they can put Grandy on the bench if need be in the playoffs against a tough LH.
YOu don’t have to worry about Kearns in LF, he can play, And DH Thames since Berkman apparently can’t hit LH well anymore.
Also, that leaves you with Lance Friggin Berkman and Curtis friggin Granderson off the bench for lefty pop when a RH does come in (TEH MATCHUPZ!)
Go New York Go!
Yeah Granderson could easily be given the day off against lefties now
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 31, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
and Romine.
and Montero.
and Man-Ban.
and Z-Mac.
and Brackman.
and Heathcott.
and G. Sanchez.
and Betances.
and Bleich.
and R. Sanchez.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on Jul 31, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 31, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
and the yanks dont have a deep farm system....
/sarcasm
I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Jul 31, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Well said
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 1, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
In fairness, most of those guys are still at A ball. The system is pretty thin of MLB ready talent (Nova, Montero and Romine, maybe McAllister if he gets it together).
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
But he still has a line (BA/OBP/SLG/wOBA/wRC+)
I honestly thought your cat stepped on your keyboard
Writer for Pinstripe Alley, MLB Daily Dish
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
DFA
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Aug 1, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
His swing
He’s got like a slow-pitch softball swing. His bat looks too heavy. He get’s a pass for last night, but I just don’t like his approach at the plate.
"‘cause he’s worried about everything, and he tries to win all the time."
-- Francisco Cervelli on Alex Rodriguez
His approach at the plate has made him one of the best hitters in the bigs during his career.
It was one game.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Aug 1, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
<a href="http://" >
"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time."
(Max McGee - American Football Commentator)
such a bad trrade, montero call up woulda been better and melancon would have been KEY to our bullpen down the stretch…gtgbye
by Hi imreallycool on Aug 2, 2010 12:28 AM EDT reply actions
Berkman said that he hasn't worked with a hitting coach in years, and that his swing has probably gone to hell.
Kevin Long said he would begin working with him when the team returned to NY. [Today].
I don’t know if they plan to rebuild his swing, or merely tweak it, but it would be nice if they could make a couple of small adjustments and have the ball start jumping off his bat.
At least Berkman is not prone to shattering on impact like Nick Johnson.
by designatedquitter on Aug 2, 2010 9:36 AM EDT reply actions
I’m indifferent when it comes to Kearns, although seeing Granderson on the bench against LHP wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen to the Yankees.
I’m, however, torn about the Berkman trade. My issue is that the big loser is Cervelli in all of this. With Berkman on the roster, we’ll see Posado behind the plate more often now, and Cervelli on the bench. I recognize that Cervelli doesn’t provide the offense the Posado or Berkman does, but he gives the team an element of youth that was missing in the 2000’s.
I’m just not a fan of trading away youth for declining stars.
Thats... George Posado
Waggon?
Statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything.
the Yanks really traded no one that has a future with the organization
even if Melancon become a 50 save per year closer, he was never doing that cuz he caved under the pinstripes repeatedly.
The Yanks gave up nothing.
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