Will Alex Rodriguez Catch Barry Bonds?
by Chris McKeown on Jul 29, 2010 11:33 AM EDT
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As Alex Rodriguez continues his pursuit toward the magical 600 home run mark, it got me thinking about how much longer it would take to get to 763 home runs. I understand that I'm coming across as getting way ahead of myself. However, this fanpost is for fun because there isn't a whole lot more to talk about today on PSA. With that being said, let's break it down.
In order to get a good grasp on this topic, I will examine Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds... regarded as the greatest home run hitters in baseball history.
George Herman Babe Ruth, at the age of 35, had 565 career homers. He would go on to average 114 games played in the next 5 seasons while clipping 149 homers (30 homers per year). He hit homers at a ridiculous rate of 1 per 12.66 ABs. The Sultan of Swat was truly the Home Run King of his day.
Hank Aaron, at the age of 35, stood at 554 homeruns. Over the next 7 seasons of his career, he hit another 201 homers to bring his grand total to 755. He averaged 125 games played per season in those 7 seasons and 29 homers per season. So... after the age of 35, Hank Aaron hit a home run about once every 4.3 games (1 homer every 14.6 ABs).
Barry Bonds, at the age of 35, stood at 494 homers. Bonds is a special case because he did a devastating amount of damage after turning 35 in 2000. Every knows his unbelievable 73 homer season came in 2001 so he launched himself into discussion of possibly catching Hank very quickly. Barry also only played 14 games in 2005 after suffering a knee injury that sidelined him virtually the entire season. So, Bonds averaged 120 games played over the final 7 seasons of his career. During that time period, he hit 268 homers (yes, 38 per 120 game season). Bonds hit homers at an alarming rate of 1 per 8.9 ABs (that's absolutely FILTHY).
There are multiple similarities between all three of these giants.
1) They all played at least until the age of 40.
2) Although they all played a different amount of games in their final 5-7 seasons, everyone averaged between 29-38 homers per year after the age of 35.
3) They were all consistent home run hitters.
So, where does all of this leave A-Rod? Well, let's say (for argument's sake) that A-Rod finishes off the 2010 campaign with 16 more homers to get to 615. To catch Bonds, I figure A-Rod is going to have to play at least 5 more seasons. So, 763 - 615 = 148 more homers during those 5 years.
If Alex plays 5 more seasons, he will need to average 30 homers per season.
If Alex plays 6 more seasons, he will need to average 24.6 (25) homers per season.
If Alex plays 7 more seasons, he will need to average 21 homers per season.
Now, is this all possible? Sure it is. Is it probable? Now that is the question. Barring no big injuries, Alex has a legitimate shot at becoming the All Time Home Run King. However, his hip is nothing to joke about. This season, it already seems like he isn't playing the same as he did last season. He's had some trouble fielding grounders at times and he can't quite turn as quickly on that hip as he used to be able to. Also, keep in mind that Ruth, Aaron and Bonds averaged 114, 125 and 120 games played per season in their final 5, 7 and 7 seasons. Alex has played a majority of this season and could struggle to surmount 30 homers.
Do I think Alex will catch Bonds? I don't see it. His hip worries me a bit and I'm not sure he has 5-7 seasons left in him that will be nearly as productive as his past. The key to becoming the Home Run King is having longevity and consistency from the age of 20 through one's early 40s. I think the steroids will end up breaking down his body. That combined with the hip injury are not good ingredients to longevity.
I wish Alex the best of luck in his pursuit of Bonds as long as he helps the Yankees win more championships along the way.
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Yes he will pass it
In fact, I think he will blow it away and put it out of reach.
He’s the youngest to 400, 500, 600, and he’ll end up being the youngest to 700 too. Lets say he averages 30 HR a season for the next three seasons after finishing with 32 this year (like you said, for arguments sake he gets 16 more this year). That will put him at 705 at the start of the 2014 season, at the age of 38, with 4 years left on his contract.
First of all, A-Rod will play seven more seasons. He signed a 10 year contract, and he’s going to play through that seven year contract. I’d be really surprised if he retires and leaves money on the table. You said that if he plays out his contract he’ll need to average 21 home runs a season to make the record.
Now, he’s going to pass 21 this year easily, and he’ll probably get close to or pass 30 HR this year and the next few years at least before we see a really noticeable decline. Unless you are predicting the complete breakdown of Alex Rodriguez and that he will turn into a shell of his former self before his 40th birthday, then he should have no problem passing it.
Also, there’s a possibility the Alex passes 30 HR this year, and maybe a few years in the future. Not every year, but maybe he has one or two big years left in him where he reaches 40 home runs. That will put him even ahead of schedule.
Barring a career ending injury, this guy is going to be the All-Time Home Run King. You say you don’t see it, but I personally don’t see him completely breaking down so much that he can’t do it, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t catch him.
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot"-Kobe Bryant
You make good points
I don’t necessarily disagree with your assessment. I would love to see him do it. If he puts up a 50 homer season, he’ll thrust himself into the record books as long as he averages just a few homers the seasons afterward. We’ll see over time…
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 29, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
i dont think there are any 40 seasons left for him
YOU CAN PUTITONTHEBOARD YES! mercy
by yankeepanda44 on Jul 29, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
He's driving in Runs
that’s all I care about and apparently so does Alex. He’s still hitting while sitting 599 and doesn’t seem to be “trying” to hit it, which is great for the Yanks and for Cashman. He must be loving this with all the incentive $$ Alex would receive with each milestone.
The Yankees sure do a great job getting on base for Alex
He finishes the job by driving them in… good stuff.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 29, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
If he can continue to hit home runs at the post- 35- year- old rate that Ruth and Aaron did, then yes.
His contract certainly runs out plenty long enough to get him the at bats. The question is, as you have identified it, will the hip or possibly other injuries prevent him from playing at his career levels.
Bonds’ post-35 numbers are a testament to his pharmacist.
Based on the fact that the Yankees have played exactly 100 games as I write this, nearly 2/3 of the season, he appears to be on track for about 25 home runs this year. Unless his hip recovers completely, that is likely to be his season total going forward as well. That would translate into six more full seasons to reach Bonds.
by designatedquitter on Jul 29, 2010 12:13 PM EDT reply actions
If I understand this correctly
He has 7 more years (and 2 months) to hit 163 home runs. That translates into 23 a season to tie if he doesn’t hit another homerun the rest of this year. At this point its almost inevitable that ARoid will be the career homerun leader. Its not like he’ll hit less then 20 home runs a year even without steroids.
“A-Roid???” I’ve never heard that before! You must be some type of pundit or artist of rhetoric to come up with something so clever and original! If you say something clever about the Yankee payroll giving them an advantage over other teams, I may just faint.
For a second it just sounded like you were just doing a poor job of whining, but no, that couldn’t be right.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
by Lord Duggan on Jul 30, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll give IanJ a break
He’s a Blue Jay fan.. that blows.. sorry sport!
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually
I’ve been feeling pretty good about being a Jays fan lately.
I suppose now that I have said that we can cue the insults.
Why insult?
You’re a .500 team in a division that you need to win a minimum of 95 games to take the division. Insults aren’t necessary.
Let's cut through the crap, Vaughn. I only got one thing to say to you: "Strike this mother f*cker out."
Meh.. 98
But +1
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 4:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Actually I was just conceding that Alex Rodriguez will catch and likely surpass Bonds
Would you have commented on my cleverness and originality if I had called him Arod? Do I need to justify which of a particular player’s nicknames I use?
We simply don't appreciate your usage of the nickname for him
Fairly immature. If you wish to discuss baseball, we are most definitely open to your opinion and your contributions to the discussion. Show some class though, chief.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 1:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Now I'm confused.
Are ARod and Aroid the same person? If so, then who is Alex Rodriguez?
Are these people like the Molinas? I’m all messed up.
by designatedquitter on Jul 30, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Where does the Centaur fit in?
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot"-Kobe Bryant
i agree with nyyrocks
i cant see him not breaking it, unless he gets seriously hurt. 7 years left on his contract to hit a little less than 160 home runs.
plus as much as he has turned into a team first guy, i still think he wants that record more than anything else now that he has a ring. however winning more rings is still his priority
I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Jul 29, 2010 12:43 PM EDT reply actions
sorry that last statement was very ambiguous.
winning the world series is obviously the number one priority. for alex, i think his agenda is to win as many rings as possible over the remainder of his contract and to break the record.
for example, if jeter plays till hes in his mid-40s he can break rose’s record. i dont see him doing that.
i think arod will play at least until he breaks the home run record.
I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Jul 29, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow
Interesting stuff david d.
"That's what you're in business for. You try to make a success."
Quotation of George Steinbrenner
R.I.P Boss, you made Yankee fans proud.
by ReggieARodJeter on Jul 29, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
61 to tie Mays....
Thats all I got, thanks.
"That's what you're in business for. You try to make a success."
Quotation of George Steinbrenner
R.I.P Boss, you made Yankee fans proud.
by ReggieARodJeter on Jul 29, 2010 1:25 PM EDT reply actions
Only time will tell
If A-Rod can make it to 700, then it will be time to start serious discussion about this.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
For now I am waiting for that #600
It sure is testing my patience. I do not have enough excuses left for my wife so that I can watch complete games.
"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."
- Denver rookie QB John Elway, on Jack Lambert, after Lambert and the Steelers knocked Elway out of his first game as a pro (1983).
+1
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 29, 2010 3:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Haven't watched a complete Yankees game in a while
I settle for tuning into mlb.com for live look-ins during the game when A-Rod is at bat or during games on ESPN. I’m hoping he gets 600 soon.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
I appreciate that a lot
Thank you
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 29, 2010 5:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sadaharu Oh would object to that
He was the first. He hit 868 of them. Granted, it was NPB, but that record will never be broken.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
Actually
The claim is “almost 800” and not 800. I don’t think anyone knows the actually tally that Josh Gibson hit when you combine his totals from the Negro Leagues, Mexican League, etc. As far as having accurate tallies for professional home runs, Bonds hit a grand total of 782 professional home runs when you count his time in the minor leagues.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
I didn't really intend to get into the Bonds debate
I was just mentioning the numbers. And I might be one of the few here that likes Reggie Bush, but I speak with the bias that only a Saints fan could have.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
Yeah,
I just don’t like Bonds. I’ve been a USC fan since back in the days of Anthony Davis, so I too like Bush.
I despise, with a burning passion, USC.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 1:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
same here
Especially with all the violations that they were recently punished for, including Reggie Bush’s under the table deal with the marketers.
I have no respect for that school or Reggie Bush, for that matter.
Nope
Not with his hip issue, and the fact that he never had the 2nd surgery, which as he ages,
may have to be done.
"Unless your drink is expecting rain, you should probably reconsider.
STAY THIRSTY my friends".
I think another interesting question
is if he gets there, which position will he be playing when he does it, my guess is DH.
Here's another question, though..
I know none of us can say for sure, but A-Rod a Hall of Famer? I happen to believe so. Steroids or not, he is the greatest homerun of hitter of our generation. I’ve always said that Bonds, Palmeiro, Rocket and A-Rod all belong. McGwire is on the precipous though, 500 homers, but only 1600 or so hits?
Steroids or not, how can you keep these all-time greats out of the hall?
Let's cut through the crap, Vaughn. I only got one thing to say to you: "Strike this mother f*cker out."
If Arod gets to 800 homers then I don't think there is any way you can keep him out
He doesn’t just hit homers, his batting average has been high throughout his career too. If he gets to 800 then it gets to the point where you can likely say he would’ve broken the record without PEDs.
He is one of the All time greats
the best of this generation. I know people will say it’s Pujols, but I’m sorry, A-Rod hit home runs and drove in runners in his prime (Texas years-2007) at a lot faster and higher rate than Pujols is right now. And it’s not like he’s done yet. A-Rod is the best of the generation.
And I agree with Edg, if he gets to 800 home runs it’s a crime to keep him out. They could elminate his numbers from Texas completely. Even eliminate his Seattle numbers if you want (although he wasn’t likely doing steroids then either), and leave just his Yankee numbers. He’s STILL a Hall of Famer.
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot"-Kobe Bryant
Points
There are position players in Cooperstown with less hits that Mark McGwire.
It is a crime to keep some of the best players of this generation out of the Hall of Fame. And I’m not just talking about the juicers.
If A-Rod gets to 800, I think they still find an excuse to keep him out. I think we’ll know how things are judged soon because Rafael Palmeiro will become eligible for the first time.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
the biggest test will be Bonds and Clemens
both of whom will be eligible before A-Rod is even done playing. If the Hall keeps Bonds and Clemens out, then it may be tough for A-Rod (even though I think Alex was better than Bonds).
To be honest, it’s a crime to keep Bonds and Clemens out too. Clemens is the third best pitcher of this generation (I put Maddux and Johnson ahead of him) and Bonds is one of the best hitters of this generation. Those are two off the best players of all time. It’s a crime to keep those two out of the HOF as well.
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot"-Kobe Bryant
I voted the first option but now that I think about it
…he’s probably gonna get to 761 and then get this whole crazy nerves thing. Then he’ll develop the whole Chuck Knoblauch thing except about hitting home runs. BOOK IT
687
That’s my bet on how many A-Rod will finish with.
He’ll average about 23 homers a year over the next 3 years, then drop off badly. He’ll finish up being a DH struggling to hit .270. As he gets close to 700 the pressure will suffocate the 38-39 y/o A-Rod. He won’t make it to 700……sadly…..and I hope I’m wrong and I hope blasts right by Bonds!!!!! But I don’t think so. :-(
We'll know next year at this time
Al is experiencing a stunning dropoff in production this year: OPS of .808 in 2010, compared with .965 for his career through 2009; one HR per 27 PA in 2010, compared with one per 16 PA through 2009.
If 2010 turns out to be an aberration, then he’s got a legitimate shot at the record. If, as I suspect, he is on the “back 9” of his career, and this year is an indicator of things to come, I doubt if he will even finish off his contract.
What we all don’t want to see is Al just hanging on the last few years ala Willie Mays.
I have noticed several
comments worrying about the hip – what about moving him to DH – that certaintly would take the pressure off of his body that would allow him to play the remaining 7 years and surpass Bonds(even if he loses one due to hip surgery).
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
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