How Good Is Brett Gardner's Arm?
by jscape2000 on Jul 29, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintBen Spigel of the NYTimes must have read the comments of the recent fanpost comparing Brett Gardner and Johnny Damon, because he immediately wrote an article exploring one of the skills that make Brett Gardner one of the most valuable outfielders in the league.
Thomson, who works with the team’s outfielders, said he had spoken with coaches around baseball who have noticed that Gardner’s arm strength and accuracy have steadily improved. His eight assists — six as a left fielder — are tied for third in the major leagues...
Gardner spends his time in the outfield during batting practice practicing his throws to the bases, so give the sophomore credit for not getting comfortable despite a stellar season.
But when I flip to Gardner's page on Fangraphs, I see a different story: GGBG has posted a (slightly) negative arm rating on the season. Arm rating measures the rate at which runners advance on an outfielder. While GGBG has caught an unusually high number of runners trying to take the extra base, a higher number of baserunners have been trying to take that base and succeeding.
There are two ways to rack up a lot of assists: catch a lot of guys with extraordinary plays (Ichiro) or watch a lot of guys run and catch a lot with ordinary plays (Gardner).
Taking nothing away from Gardner, whose 3.5 WAR is second on the team and 10th among position players in the American League(!), but while he has a quick release, I don't see any reason for baserunners to be fearful of his arm. Respectful, certainly, but never fearful.
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Does anyone here really want to see Crawford THAT much more than Gardner?
I really don’t want him to be moved from the team to make way for Crawford… a 3.5 WAR is ridiculous considering not many people expected much out of GGBG.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
So true
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 29, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I want Crawford over Granderson though
and put GGBG at his rightful position in CF
or crawford in LF, GGBG in center and grandy in RF with swish as the dh? i love swish but he’s an average right fielder at best, its his hitting and obp that we need. i have no idea what if curtis have ever played right or would be willing to, but those 3 would cover more ground than any outfield in baseball. just a though
by BronxBeliever on Jul 29, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
improved yes. has he become average fielder? not exactly
by BronxBeliever on Jul 29, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
average? No.
Above average, absolutely. Swisher’s good in RF. Playing someone with Grandy’s speed in RF makes not much sense.
Go New York Go!
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 29, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
haha i meant to put: ‘is he above average?’- no not ‘is he average- no’
i gotta disagree with you bradshaw. i think that that he has improved this year and become an average right fielder. i dont think you can say he is absolutley an above average right fielder by any means. i could be proved wrong with some advanced stats as i havent taken the time to fully review them.
by BronxBeliever on Jul 29, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
advanced stats don't matter to me...
the dude is solid out there in right. Has been all year and you’d either have to be infatuated with a burned image in your brain of him last year, or just completely enamored with a stat that says he’s merely average.
He’s been absolutely solid, above average, in RF for the Yanks this year.
Go New York Go!
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 29, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree here, Free. Swisher is a solid outfielder in general, but if you’re playing right field, he gets compared to other right fielders, which is where teams tend to put great outfielders with great arms.
Swish patrols a pretty tiny right field at the stadium, and is rated negative in overall fielding and arm. You can discount the advanced metrics if you want, but I have never seen anything that points to Swish being anything above average in right field.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
You can't disagree
don’t you know that already?
"Unless your drink is expecting rain, you should probably reconsider.
STAY THIRSTY my friends".
by Great Gatsby on Jul 29, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
eh...I tried.
you got it pal
Go New York Go!
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 29, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
really?
I guess if every team has a Clemente out there, they’re all better. But I’ve seen nothing from Swisher this year that points to him being anything less then above average. Maybe its cuz I didn’t think Abreu was as bad as the metrics say, maybe its cuz while I think the metrics are semi-useless for infielders, they’re completely a waste of time for OFers….
I just don’t see what the knock is on Swisher. the guy is a solid OFer. I thought he was inconsistent last year, a bad play for every great play (which amounts to average).
This year he basically hasn’t had those mental lapses out there but still makes a lot of good plays. Can’t see anything other that points to him being above average and a solid RF, nothing that merits being a DH unless you got him stereotyped already.
Go New York Go!
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 29, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
He tends to make the plays on the balls that he gets to, but doesn’t have a ton of range. Again, he is somewhat helped by playing in a tiny Yankee Stadium right field for 50% of his games.
And, there certainly have been some adventurous plays out there where he botches balls that he certainly should get. As far as his great plays, I have always got the impression that a faster outfielder could make them much more routinely, but he does tend to pull a gem out every now and again.
I’m not saying this to try and trash the Swish, I love the guy and think he’s a great player, I just happen to think the metrics coincide with my watching of him. He’s not a butcher out there, but he’s certainly not lighting up the field either. And when you compare him to some of the good RFers out there, he definitely comes up short.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
Yeah ...
But….. the Swish Salute reigns supreme! What metric measures that? ;o)
by NY on Jul 29, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand what you're saying
Free, in no way is Duggan throwing Swisher under the bus (as I write this I see Duggan explaining how he’s not trashing Swisher… but I’m too lazy to delete) but rather that there are just younger, faster RFs than Swisher that make more plays.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Can't be done
unless someone is moved, Grandy’s salary is 8.5 mill next year, 10 mill in 2012.
If you want Crawford, somebody has to go, cuz you know they are going afrer Lee.
"Unless your drink is expecting rain, you should probably reconsider.
STAY THIRSTY my friends".
by Great Gatsby on Jul 29, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you
"Unless your drink is expecting rain, you should probably reconsider.
STAY THIRSTY my friends".
by Great Gatsby on Jul 29, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Crawford over Granderson in a moment ...
Speed at the top and bottom of a lineup of professional hitters is devastating. Tex, Arod, Cano will likely drive in 120 each with Crawford, Jeter and Swisher consistently on base.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
GGBG's arm strength has definitely increased from last year.
But remember, Johnny Damon had a lot of OF assists last year. Sometimes it just depends on chances. He’s got an accurate arm, its kinda like Matsui’s arm when he was out there.
Not too concerned with what fangraphs says on this, my own 2 say that GGBG’s arm is pretty good. He’s not Rick Ankiel, but it shows you that a strong OF arm is really not a big deal.
And yes…keep the entire OF the way it is. Screw Crawford, Werth…anyone who’s out there. GGBG is the type of player that should retire a Yank. Leave it alone. I really don’t think Gardner’s a fluke as basically last year he was very similar but was injured.
Plate discipline is something that really doesn’t go away. It may dip a bit here and there, but his approach seems the same every game, every AB.
Keep Gardner, re-sign him when the time comes.
Go New York Go!
Gardner's arm
has been much better than advertised. He’s quite accurate and his strength has obviously increased, but what I think really helps him with his outfield assists is his speed. He’s able to close in on balls much faster than base coaches and runners think thus he’s occasionally able to round ’em up.
+1
you beat me to the punch – totally agree on the speed factor. It fools enough base runners and makes the occasional weak throw or throw via cutoff man still work.
If you're a real Yankee fan, please do the rest of us a favor and splurge the extra cash on a replica jersey without a last name on the back. Frankly, it's embarassing.
by total hermination on Jul 29, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Putting it into perspective ...
Gardner’s arm will never be mentioned as what got him to the show.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
word
not to mention the dude pulled a Rudy and was a walk-on at the College of Charleston
If you're a real Yankee fan, please do the rest of us a favor and splurge the extra cash on a replica jersey without a last name on the back. Frankly, it's embarassing.
by total hermination on Jul 30, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn't know that ...
Funny, after last season, I kinda’ wrote him off as a .220 slapper with wheels. Again he proved me wrong. He can play.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
and look at Swisher at the other corner....
Before coming here, a perennial .250 hitter with power being his only constant, kinda overweight and slow, not really known for his defense….now we have one of the best outfields defensively in baseball. Funny how these things happen.
If you're a real Yankee fan, please do the rest of us a favor and splurge the extra cash on a replica jersey without a last name on the back. Frankly, it's embarassing.
by total hermination on Aug 3, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep
He charges well, gets rid of the ball quickly, sometimes more important.
"Unless your drink is expecting rain, you should probably reconsider.
STAY THIRSTY my friends".
by Great Gatsby on Jul 29, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
2009
Wasn’t his arm component of UZR good in 2009? This could be a sample size issue we’re looking at.
I also think he got a great arm rating from the FANS in the off-season.
RU RAH RAH
RU RAH RAH
His rating was a couple runs positive in 2009.
Obviously, any time you look at defensive stats sample size is an issue. To the best of my knowledge, it takes about 3 years of data to make a solid conclusion.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
still waiting
for some “flipping forward through the air” throws ala Chad Curtis from GGBG. Should we expect anything less from the guy?
If you're a real Yankee fan, please do the rest of us a favor and splurge the extra cash on a replica jersey without a last name on the back. Frankly, it's embarassing.
by total hermination on Jul 29, 2010 11:47 AM EDT reply actions
Bill Hall with a web gem at 2nd base yesterday?
Huh?? Don’t see that often
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
LOL
Looking at Bill Hall on wikipedia…
His career awards…
Brewers Good Guy Award
Unsung Hero Award
Michael Harrison Award
Toed the Rubber (1-2-3 inning)
By the way, why does it say Hall is on the Blue Jays and Red Sox on wikipedia?
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 29, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
it says that he was traded from the Sox to the Jays today (for Delgado), but I have not been able to find any confirmation
Delgado hasn't been on the Jays in years.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Jul 29, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
wiki
2010 season
On Thursday July 29 2010 Carlos Delgado was signed by his original team the Toronto Blue Jays in a sign and trade deal that immediately sent the first baseman to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Bill Hall.
Going for #28
Baseball has sign and trades?
That’s news to me. Why wouldn’t Boiston just sign Delgado outright? Looks like a load of bull.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Jul 29, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Since I was one of the posters alluded to in the Gardner/ Damon comparison, it is appropriate to point out the following:
Neither I nor anyone else said Gardner’s arm was a cannon, only that it is better than Damon’s, and by a lot.
Presumably, after a number of assists are registered, people will stop taking liberties with Gardner and his assist total will go down, the same way that Andy Pettitte’s pickoff totals are down in recent years. The move is the same, but people stay close to the base and keep their heads up.
I have no idea how Carl Crawford got into this discussion.
by designatedquitter on Jul 29, 2010 12:00 PM EDT reply actions
Gardner’s arm is probably fair for a left fielder but weak for a center fielder. I’d compare his arm to Jacoby Ellsbury’s.
I would agree
However, I forget what Ellsbury looks like he’s been out so long. One thing is for sure.. they both have the speed to get to balls fast
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 29, 2010 1:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Jacoby Ellsbury's arm? Seriously? Really?
Jacoby Ellsbury’s arm is an order of magnitude weaker than Johnny Damon’s. Ellsbury would get the ball to the infield faster if he just ran it in.
by designatedquitter on Jul 29, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Ellsbury's arm is as bad as Damon's.
Go New York Go!
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 29, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Just goes to show you how useless some of the modern defense stats are
And that actually goes for a lot of the secondary hitting stats, as well. You can pretty much find anything on FanGraphs or similar sites to support whatever your theory is.
Do you agree that there is value in holding a runner at secondbase when he might advance to third otherwise?
Do you agree that it is useful to try to measure this value in order to compare players?
The defensive stats need a lot of study and a lot of work, but they’re a start. And they’re light-years ahead of just counting assists.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I don't disagree at all with anything you said
I just think that there is an awful lot of subjectivity in determining, for example, whether, when a runner holds at second base, whether it is because of something the fielder did, the runner’s speed, game situational concerns, or other factors. As you said, it is a start; that’s all.
I completely agree with you. I wish that Fangraphs made public more of their raw data so that we could go through it and figure out, how much is one really good or really bad play distorting the final number.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Need to get Nate Silver back to doing baseball Stats...
He would have that all figured out for ya…
by NY on Jul 29, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been use to not having an arm in the outfield since the 90's.
Either way, Gardner needs to retire a Yankee. Nuff’ Said.
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Jul 29, 2010 1:54 PM EDT reply actions
Absolutely. When Gardner starts being a $1M-$2M player, I suspect his trade value will be higher than his value.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Gardner needs to get paid whatever he asks for.
Plus fresh Belgian Waffles for before or after the game.
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Jul 29, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Much!
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Jul 29, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to bring up a sore subject around here, but Melky had a decent arm
You are right, thought, that the recent Yankee leftfielders do seem to have been plagued by amelia.
Ricky Ledee
LOL
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 29, 2010 2:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Decent, but not a cannon like some outfielders.
The Yankees haven’t had a cannon arm in the outfield for a long time.
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Jul 29, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
And the accuracy of a blind dart thrower
(with no offense intended to sightless persons anywhere).
don't forget Raul Mondesi in the 2000's
great trade by Cashman……errrrr
If you're a real Yankee fan, please do the rest of us a favor and splurge the extra cash on a replica jersey without a last name on the back. Frankly, it's embarassing.
by total hermination on Jul 29, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Sheffield?
no? Mondesi, in his limited time with the Yanks, definitely one of the better ones.
If you're a real Yankee fan, please do the rest of us a favor and splurge the extra cash on a replica jersey without a last name on the back. Frankly, it's embarassing.
by total hermination on Jul 29, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I always bring up former players with my buddy on the train home from the game
Mondesi is a favorite of ours to talk about
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
nice Friday morning tidbit...
From Wikipedia:
“Throughout his career, Mondesí exhibited obvious physical gifts of speed, power, and a rocket arm (one of the best in baseball history, often compared favorably with that of Roberto Clemente), which were offset by poor plate discipline and attitude issues.
“Raúl Mondesí is currently out of baseball and living in San Cristóbal, Dominican Republic. He was fined as a result of stealing electricity in 2006.”
? Stealing electricity? Really Raul I’m no expert, but I don’t expect the Dominican utility companies are throwing around Con-Ed style service and delivery charges. Maybe his time in NYC corrupted him.
If you're a real Yankee fan, please do the rest of us a favor and splurge the extra cash on a replica jersey without a last name on the back. Frankly, it's embarassing.
by total hermination on Jul 30, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Go Tigers
3-2 Rays, stop being clawless, win a game!
"Unless your drink is expecting rain, you should probably reconsider.
STAY THIRSTY my friends".
Miguel
is having a good game for the clawless Tigers, botched 2 plays at first costing them
3 runs, and has struck out twice, other than that a good day. Go Dustin Moseley.
"Unless your drink is expecting rain, you should probably reconsider.
STAY THIRSTY my friends".
That's the MVP front-runner
How tragic!
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I say.................... screw your Fangraphs....
I watch every game……. And Gardner is a defensive monster, easily.
And his assists have been crucial to every game
by Gangsta Yanksta on Jul 29, 2010 4:53 PM EDT reply actions
You'd be surprised if you paid closer attention
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 30, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
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