Black Cats, Broken Mirrors, and Joba Chamberlain

Huh?

By and large, people who deride the “luck argument” aren’t going to be swayed by this or any other post. The truth is that Joba has had some bad outings, but he’s also been unlucky. Given his past performance and his underlying numbers, we can expect him to pitch better for the rest of the year. That’s not to say he doesn’t have some problems – it does seem like he has trouble putting guys away. It seems like he gets to 0-2 a lot, but can’t get the hitter out and winds up going to 2-2 or 3-2 and winds up giving up a hit or walk. I wonder if that’s true, though, or just our perception. Is there someplace to look up how often pitchers get to 0-2 and wind up letting the guy get on base? Or even how often they get to 0-2 and wind up getting to full counts?

AND he only allows solo home runs and his ERA is still over 4? Two things that almost certainly never happen and he still is just an average reliever? I guess at that point you can take his truly “unlucky” stats (the BABIP) and drop it down to a more reasonable level…say .300. Where does that put his ERA? 3.0 or so (I’m guessing, I haven’t crunched that numbers). So, assuming my guess is in the right ballpark it would take the damn near impossible Good Luck of having no runner you leave on score, never give up a homer with a man on base, AND have a perfectly normal BABIP to make Joba a typically effective reliever.

Also, I like how we only think his bad stats are the ones that will regress. Why won’t his good HR/9, K/9, and swinging strike % regress to the mean? It is almost certain his BABIP will drop, but it’s also likely his stats at the positive end of the spectrum will regress somewhat too.

…it would seem to me that anyone who argues luck as a major factor is leaning on dubious logic and factual evidence. How long can you just be unlucky? Does that mean that next season it will swing back around and he’ll strikeout everyone?

If statistically he is giving up more HRs when there are runners on base, then in my mind it would follow that he has problems (whether with focus, confidence, mechanics, whatever) pitching with runners on, not that he’s having bad luck. Yes, maybe it’s “unlucky” that the hits given up are HRs, but the fact is opponents are hitting the ball hard off him with runners on base. Maybe it’s a mental thing, maybe it’s not, but I don’t think I’d qualify it as luck.

And ultimately, does it matter anyway? The bottom line is that he hasn’t been able to perform consistently well in the role he’s been assigned. If he continues to be unable to produce results, then will it matter if his ineffectiveness is the result of luck, psyche, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster? He’s still ineffective, and that’s going to be a liability, especially in the playoffs.

http://www.venuing.com/voices/

How many inherited runners did Joba let cross the plate? Probably close to 4, right? So that should even out.

The BABIP argument is a better one.

Apparently Moseley will start Thursday, with Mitre going back to the pen.

This is the big leagues, not second grade! If he is too fragile to pitch in clutch situations, then demote him or put Robertson in. Geez, the argument that he is “too sensitive” to be switched out of the 8th inning spot is ridiculous. And the argument that he has pitched in bad luck is b.s. He is a relief pitcher for Pete’s sake; not a mop up pitcher in blow out situations. His job is to pitch aggressively and intelligently. Imagine Mariano getting upset and wanting understanding for blowing a save (or a hold in the case of Joba). I see Joba as inconsistent and that will not cut it in the playoffs. You don’t get two or three shots in the post-season to do a get job - you get ONE. In a short series would you want Joba taking the ball with a one run lead on the Angels or Rangers? He seems to walk the first batter and then it gets into keeping runners close to the base. If he is fragile, then don’t put him in a pressure situation. Trade for Soria or get Robertson ready to go. I will never understand any excuse for a relief pitcher not being AGGRESSIVE. He is not a starter anymore: he doesn’t have to think as much as attack. I hate those four or five pitch walks he does. This is not a get acquainted time to explore the umps strike zone or the hitter’s tendencies. CONNECT THE DOTS THE FIRST TIME AND HIT THE ZONE! Do you think Steinbrenner would accept bad luck and fragility for non-performance? He is a big boy now and I expect him to produce. The Doc

But he isn’t, so it’s not time to panic or resort to crimes of violence.

Having said that, he shouldn’t be pitching the 8th inning right now. I have always been a Robertson fan, going so far as to posting during the World Series that I wanted more of him, less of Joba. The fact that Cashman won’t trade Joba must at least suggest that the underlying talent is still there. I’m wondering if he wouldn’t be more effective starting games right now. If he were no worse than last year, he would still be a better #5 than Mitre or Mosely.

As for Kuri’s argument in his post, I agree with those who point out that even if he regresses to the mean, it’s high mean. A 4.04 ERA from your set up man is still an unacceptably high ERA.

Joba needs to just pitch……getting this guy in form is the big issue…..he’s all over the mound…..it’s like a bad dancer…………….herky jerky nothing smooth……..