FanPost

Yankees Go Farming! Part 1: Pitching

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via www.calliebowdish.com


I'm sure everyone is familiar with our remaining top prospects, those that have received the most press, usually as part of an article about replacing someone who is going on the disabled list or perhaps is struggling in some manner and may need to work on a particular aspect of his game. There are also many Pinstripe Alley community members that are quite knowledgeable about the Yankee farm system and may mention someone as a possible call-up or replacement for a player on the 25-man roster.

I am not so knowledgeable about the Yankee farm system, and in an effort to educate myself (and possibly PA readers), I sought to learn more about the players who are developing their talent in the Yankee minor league teams. After the jump, I present part one of my exploration of all the levels of the Yankees farm system, beginning with the pitching.

Scouting Reports provided by River Avenue Blues (links provided at each player). Also note, the scouting reports are from before this season, so some numbers have changed, as seen in my assessments.

Ivan Nova RHP (AAA):

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via web.minorleaguebaseball.com

Age: 23

7- 2 / 3.21 ERA / 17 starts / 103.2 IP / 101 H / 39 R / 37 ER / 8 HR / 40 BB / 78 K / .259 BAA

Telling stats: Bases Empty ERA: 1.06 / Runners On ERA: 6.14 / RISP ERA: 11.35

Looks like he's good at getting batters out, but once their on base or in scoring position, he gets rattled. I'm also not excited about his 101 hits in 103.2 IP, as that comes out to 8.77 H/9, a below average hit ratio (if average is 6-7 H/9). His K rate is 6.77/9 which is about average. It looks like he could be relief material if he can learn to buckle down when runners on on the bases, especially in scoring position. If he loses composure against any MLB hitters, they'll more than likely come around to score. His performance under pressure may be a reason for the Yankees to let him develop more before bringing him up. If he can control his composure under pressure, he could be an asset in the future, as a starter or reliever. I'm inclined to think reliever, as the Yankee front office likes to put strikeout guys in the pen to shut down offenses in late innings.

Scouting Report

A big bodied righthander (6′-4″, 210 lbs) with a classic pitcher’s frame, Nova works with three average pitches that have shown flashes of developing into more. He parks his fastball at 92-94 mph consistently, and he’s able to drive it down into the bottom third of the strike zone to generate plenty of groundballs (career 50.6% ground rate). He backs it up with a good fading changeup, and a trademark Nardi Contreras curveball serves as his third best pitch, though it remains inconsistent. When either of his offspeed offerings is working, Nova has a legit put-away pitch. When both are working, he can be unhittable.


Nova has proven to be very durable in recent years, which stems from his fluid and easily repeatable delivery. However, that delivery is a double-edged sword. It allows him to command the ball to both sides of the plate, but at the same time he completely lacks deception, so hitters get a good look at the ball before he releases it, hence why he’s allowed almost ten hits per nine innings pitched in his career. A good athlete, Nova fields his position adequately and generally does a good job holding runners.

Zachary McAllister RHP (AAA):

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via web.minorleaguebaseball.com

Age: 23

7-6 / 4.82 ERA / 18 starts / 97.0 IP / 117 H / 59 R / 52 ER / 13 HR / 23 BB / 58 K / .298 BAA

K/9: 5.38 (very low) H/9: 10.86 (very high)

His BAA is the most telling statistic and is evident in his total hits and H/9 ratio. Comparing him to Nova, he's given up 15 more earned runs in one more start, and has pitched 6.2 fewer innings. In his last 10 starts, he's gone less than 5 innings 4 times (with 2 starts with less than 3 innings). On the upside, he could be an innings eater, as he's pitched 6+ innings in 6 of his last 10 starts. His inconsistency and hit ratio may be why the Yankees are letting him develop some more before bringing him up to the majors, even for a relief role.

Scouting Report (from a post about AAA prospects)

Z-Mac has had an up-and-down in his first run at AAA. Arguably the Yankees’ top pitching prospect, McAllister ran into some issues in late April, early May, giving up over 6 runs in two of three starts. Still, he’s sprinkled in some good games and has strung two consecutive 7-inning performances of good ball. A polished groundball pitcher, McAllister may wind up trade bait or perhaps in the rotation as early as next year. He, like Nova, has back rotation or possibly #3 starter potential, but he’s going to need to get that groundball rate up again. A 34% GB ratio is not going to work at the big league level for a guy with his skill set. It wouldn’t hurt to develop a true out pitch, either.

Romulo Sanchez RHP (AAA):

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via web.minorleaguebaseball.com

Age: 26

7-7 / 4.27 ERA / 20 G / 86.1 IP / 73 H / 45 R / 41 ER / 7 HR / 51 BB / 74 K / .234 BAA

Most of Sanchez's stats are skewed because he began the season as a starter (14 games started) and was converted to relief in his last 5 games. In light of the change in his role, his most telling stats are now his total Ks and his K ratio (7.71 K/9). I am ignoring his situational statistics as well as his overall ERA due to his shift from the SWB rotation to the bullpen. Further analysis of the games in which he came in as a reliever provides a picture of a middle relief or situational pitcher, as he has zero earned runs in 7 innings of relief work, with 6 Ks, 4 walks, and 3 hits. Although this screams "small sample size," if he can excel in short relief situations (he pitched 2 innings in 2 appearances and 1 inning in each of the remaining 3 appearances, he could also be an asset to the MLB team as a late relief or even set-up pitcher. We've seen Sanchez up in the MLB since Aceves went to the disabled list.

Scouting Report (from a post about AAA prospects)

Sanchez has a great fastball, occasionally hitting the high 90’s with his 4-seamer, but he likely profiles best as a reliever in the future due to his erratic control and fringe-average off-speed pitches (a changeup and slider). If he can locate that big fastball and keep hitters off balance with one of the off speed offerings, he could definitely stick with the big club over the year. His numbers in Scranton are a bit misleading. In April he gave up 10 earned runs in only 2.1 innings. Otherwise, he’s been among the better pitchers in the upper minors.

David Phelps RHP (AAA/IL):

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via web.minorleaguebaseball.com

Age: 24

Phelps was recently promoted to the International League team, and has had 3 starts, going 1-1, with a 2.04 ERA. His loss was a product of getting roughed up for 5 runs (3 earned) and 10 hits while only getting 4 Ks. He's pitched at least 5 innings in each start (going 6 in his last 2), and most likely caught a lot of attention with his 10 Ks in his last start. He's given up no home runs, but his weakness is in his hit ratio (thus far, he's given up more hits, 21, than innings pitched, 17.2). The sample size here is very small, but promising. Looking at his minor league career numbers, there's more to be excited about. He's only given up 16 HR in 58 games (a total of 329.2 IP), has amassed 277 strikeouts, and has a career ERA of 2.35. If he can maintain those numbers, especially the low HR totals and K rate (career 7.56 K/9), he can be a valuable part of either a trade or the Yankee's bullpen/rotation plans in the future.

Scouting Report (from an AA status report)

Not considered one of the team’s high-impact pitchers down the farm, Phelps has continued to throw up really impressive numbers. A groundball-inducing extraordinaire, Phelps isn’t afraid to throw any of his pitches in any count, keeping hitters off balance, according to a scouting report at Yanks Daily. He doesn’t give many walks, issuing only 11 in 42 innings, and has pretty good strikeout rates for a finesse pitcher with 37 in 41.2 innings. A 14th round pick out of Notre Dame in 2008, Phelps has been one of the best players of the class (a class that includes Jeremy Bleich, David Adams, Corban Joseph, Kyle Higashioka and Brett Marshall), and 2010 is no different.


Hitters have been stymied by an FIP of 2.80 (and a corresponding ERA of 1.73), a groundball rate of 46.5%, and as already mentioned, an improved K-rate. Unfortunately, Phelps is outpeforming some of his peripherals. Hitters are unlikely to continue hitting only 2.8% of flyballs for home runs and his .256 BABip is significantly lower than last year’s mark of .317, though there’s certainly a correlation with his grounball rate from a year ago being 52%, compared to this year’s 46.5%. Phelps will need to work on his off-speed pitches to compliment his low-90’s fastball and some of his peripherals seem unustainable, but he’s been a very good find and hasn’t had any problem with AA hitters.

Adam Warren RHP (AA):

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via web.minorleaguebaseball.com

Age: 23

Drafted by the Yankees in 2009, Warren graduated from the University of North Carolina and "went 32-4 with a 3.42 ERA and 240 strikeouts in 65 games (49 starts) in his college career." (MinorLeagueBaseball.com) That means he's been able to develop before entering the minor league system. His success appears to have carried over. In 2009, he posted a 4-2 record with a 1.43 ERA in 12 starts. He only pitched in 56.2 innings, but amassed 50 Ks and only allowed 1 HR. In addition, he had a respectably low BAA with a .236.

In 2010, he's continued his excellent performance. His time this year has been split between Tampa and Trenton, but overall he's posted an 8-5 record with an ERA of 2.20 in 16 starts. He has only allowed 2 home runs and amassed 72 strikeouts. He has even posted a complete game shutout, albeit in Tampa.

If he can maintain this type of performance as he rises to AAA, he may be a dark horse of a prospect. The most exciting statistics are his low HR totals (which, without SABR data, would lead me to believe he's not a fly ball pitcher), and his strikeouts (minor league career K/9 is 7.7).

Scouting Report

Every bit as polished as you would expect from a player with his pedigree, Warren legitimately throws five pitches, three of which are fastballs. His four-seamer has some arm-side run and sat in the high-80’s for most of his college career, though he was throwing in the low-90’s as a senior and reports from Staten Island had him touching 96 and sitting 94. More than likely, he’ll come back down to Earth a bit and settling into the low-90’s long-term. Both Warren’s two-seamer and cutter sit around 90 mph, and he spots all three pitches well. The fastball trio affords him a tremendous amount of deception, because he has one that moves to the left, one that moves to the right, and one that goes down.

Warren’s best secondary pitch is a strong circle change, and he’s toyed with both a curveball and a slider in the past. The Yankees, as you probably guessed, had him scrap the slider and work exclusively with the curve. He stays tall in his simple delivery, making his 6′-2″, 200 lb frame seem just a little bit bigger. Warren’s pick off move to first is as good as it gets from a righthander; he picked off 17 (!!!) batters in his final three years at UNC. With four years of experience at a major program and in the College World Series, Warren is as advanced and refined as you could ask a college pitcher to be.

Jose A. Ramirez RHP (A)

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via web.minorleaguebaseball.com

Age: 20

In 2010, Ramirez has posted a 3-4 record with 75 Ks in 84.2 IP (8 K/9). He has a low walk rate (2.76 BB/9) and has not allowed a HR. In spite of a low BAA (.234), he has allowed 33 earned runs in his 84.2 innings. He made 15 starts and one relief appearance, and has varied greatly in endurance in games. For example, in his last 10 games, he's gone 8 innings, then 5.2, then 3, then 5, then remaining in the 3-5 range until his second-to-last game where he went 6 innings. The last game was his relief appearance of 3 innnings.

I see him as a middle relief pitcher, especially with his excellent K rate. If he can maintain that and overpower hitters late in games, he could be a viable set-up man in the future. Obviously, since he is still in single-A, he will have to make progress in the future before breaking into the big leagues, either for the Yankees (who seem genuinely excited about his potential) or for another team if he is traded.

Scouting Report (from a post about single-A prospects)

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007, Ramirez made his professional debut in 2009, where all he did was earn Pitcher of the Year honors out of the GCL. Yeah, his stock definitely rose. Armed with a fastball known to hit 96 and a very developed changeup, Ramirez has again largely impressed, if a bit inconsistent. The one thing that jumps out at you is that he has yet to give up a home run this year. Like, not even one. His K/BB rate is quite nice at 2.83 and the K/9 is close to 9. As I mentioned, consistency is key. He’s really struggled in June, posting an ERA of 6.75 with 14 hits and 10 walks in a shade under 15 innings. I’m not all that concerned, but it sure would be nice to see him hit his early season performance and possibly hit Tampa later in the year.

Conclusion

All in all, our pitching prospects across the board seem pretty solid, in terms of endurance, K rates, and keeping the ball in the park. The biggest weakness, from the limited situational data I had access to, is being able to finish the offense off with runners on base and in scoring position. Only Phelps and Warren have ERAs under 10 with runners in scoring position and under 5 with runners on base.

Stay tuned for my next post, continuing a look at the farm system in: Yankees Go Farming! Part 1A: More Pitching with Starters and Relievers.

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