Does the Home Run Derby adversely affect hitters?
by Travis G on Jul 12, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintThe immediate reaction most of us had to hearing of Robbie Cano's entry into the Home Run Derby (and now Nick Swisher's) was that of consternation. We've heard horror stories about it messing up swings and making hitters pull-happy, especially after Bobby Abreu's 2005 season. Abreu hit 18 homers in the first half and six in the second. Many attributed his let-down to the Derby.
So I set out to determine whether the HR Derby truly affects its participants. I took every Derby participant from 2000 on (79 in total*) and compared their first half to their second. The results were not entirely surprising:
Overall, hitters fared worse after the HR Derby. The average participant entered the All-Star break with a .993 OPS. The average second half OPS was .951, a drop of .042. Not huge, but not insignificant either.
A few, though, fell off a cliff. In 2001, Todd Helton entered the All-Star break with a 1.252 OPS. His second half OPS (.977) was still excellent, but represented a .275 drop off. Some others include:
Paul Konerko, 2002: .949 vs. .734
Jim Edmonds, 2003: 1.066 vs. .864
Hank Blalock, 2004: .941 vs. .743
Justin Morneau, 2007: .944 vs. .702
Dan Uggla, 2008: .978 vs. .739
Lance Berkman, 2008: 1.096 vs. .821
Brandon Inge, 2009: .876 vs. .542
However, not every player declined. Of the 79 seasons/hitters, 34 (43%) actually improved in the second half, but there were only two extreme examples:
Sammy Sosa, 2000: .962 vs. 1.138
Ryan Howard, 2006: .923 vs. 1.259
Overall, most hitters declined, a few "fell off a cliff," and the vast majority of 'improvers' only did so moderately.
Before coming to a definitive conclusion, I needed to find out whether hitters in general declined in the second half (perhaps due to fatigue). They did not. The average major league OPS (from 2000-'09) entering the break was .760. The second half average was .759. (The exact difference is -.00092.) That slight difference is essentially meaningless, and may have more to do with September call-ups getting a chance than any kind of decline among ML 'regulars'.
So - our initial reaction is backed up by evidence. But don't judge Swisher's decision just yet, because (1) even if he does decline, it probably won't be all that much, and (2) Swisher is traditionally a better first half hitter (so a slight second half decline wouldn't be out of the ordinary).
My advice is: Try to enjoy the Derby and pray Swisher doesn't get hurt.
*79 rather than 80 because Ivan Rodriguez, a participant in the 2000 Derby, only played in 10 games the second half, so I discounted that season.
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I think it depends on the hitter.
If a player has a natural home run swing, I don’t think the derby would be a problem. However, a more natural line drive hitter might see a problem changing their swing to hit more home runs. It might mess up their natural muscle memory. I think this was the case with Abreu.
by upstateNYYFan1984 on Jul 12, 2010 11:09 AM EDT reply actions
sorry, but Swisher being in it is a joke
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 12, 2010 11:24 AM EDT reply actions
um, ok….
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 12, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
and before you come on here, and speak Boston BS...
this is Nick Swisher…not Dustin Pedrioa (which WOULD be a joke if he’s in this). Swisher hit 35hR as an Oakland A. 17 of which came in his cavernous home stadium.
He had 29 HR last year, and 15 already this year.
Swisher is a HR hitter, whether you like it or not. He’s actually the type of guy you want in a HR derby cuz he’ll probably be great for the camera and most likely…is not getting shut out of this.
Bye, Lee :(
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 12, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Swisher is made for TV Events like this.
He will make this watchable if you ask me.. and I know you were going to.
Statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything.
If Pedroia was on it, that would be awful
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"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
by bestbostonsports on Jul 12, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't cry
becasue Youk didn’t make the ASG, in fact he wasn’t picked as a replacement either, Konerko
was picked instead.
His mother has a tattoo that reads, "Son".
Sharks have a week dedicated to HIM.
"It doesn't take more than one person, to talk to a woman.
Stay thirsty my friends."
by Great Gatsby on Jul 12, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Just explain that comment for us.
Instead of just saying something dumb, why don’t you tell us why it’s a joke?
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Jul 12, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
“Swisher being in it is a joke” isn’t enough?? You mean making half sentence negative posts would be considered annoying? How dare you ask someone to actually put thought into their contributions!
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
look dude, Im just stating an opinion.
Join the Lacrosse community at theprolaxblog.blogspot.com
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
by bestbostonsports on Jul 12, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Then you should prefact that opinion by saying "I think"
Because there’s a big hearty difference between:
“I think Swisher being in it is a joke”
and
“Swisher being in it is a joke”
One implies an opinion, one implies a statement that can be backed up by facts.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Jul 12, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
*preface. Durr I can type good and stuff.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Jul 12, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
You are stating an opinion very poorly because you need facts, or something to give your arguments legs. Half sentence posts are SO annoying. For example:
Had you said, I don’t think Nick Swisher should be in the HR Derby because Player X, Player Y, and Player Z have better power credentials, here are their stats, etc, we could have a real debate about it.
Saying “sorry, Swisher being in it is a joke” is just stupid, pointless, and drags the level of discourse down into “yes he should”, “no he shouldn’t” type drivel, or even worse, if someone has to do a post like this explaining what should be obvious.
If you want to make a point in one of these type of threads, half a sentence isn’t enough. And if you’re going to come and say negative things about Yankee players, half a sentence isn’t even CLOSE to enough.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
wow
How bout you explain why it’s a joke. This comment is dumb. If you wanted Uterus in the ASG maybe you Blow Socks fans should’ve voted harder.
"We're only going to score 17 points?" - Tom Brady
"Well played, Mauer." - Guy from PS3 commercials
for your info I voted like, 30 times
and I just dont see Swisher as a home run hitter, sorry
Join the Lacrosse community at theprolaxblog.blogspot.com
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
by bestbostonsports on Jul 12, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait, wait. I think I know this one.
It’s called bias, right?
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jul 12, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
and I just dont see Swisher as a home run hitter, sorry
Then you’re an idiot, sorry .
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Jul 12, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
then thats your opinion
Join the Lacrosse community at theprolaxblog.blogspot.com
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
by bestbostonsports on Jul 12, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
No it's a fact.
Because not seeing someone who has hit 20+ HR every year of his career as a home run hitter, is stupid.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Jul 12, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair
Swisher is a “home run hitter” in that he has decent power and yes, does hit home runs from time to time. He’s never going to contend for the league lead, though – he’s a “middle of the pack” kind of guy. Even in what may turn out to be a career year, he’s tied for 31st in HRs. When you think of premier power hitters, he’s not on the list, and I assume that is what BBS was driving at. Of the derby contestants, only Hanley Ramirez has fewer homers than Swish.
That said, “Swisher being in it is a joke” is clearly ridiculous fan-biased hyperbole, and therefore I have no trouble discounting it. :-)
I think Swisher has a Shot..
I guess with Ortiz and Miguel being main Competition. I think he will have the Longest Round, Time Wise… cause he is gonna Take alot of Pitches.
Statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything.
Cabrera will win.
Im rooting Ortiz though.
Join the Lacrosse community at theprolaxblog.blogspot.com
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
by bestbostonsports on Jul 12, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
of course you are... understandable.
not to be mean. But I am rooting for Ortiz to pull a muscle in his back.
Statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything.
thats fine, Im rooting for Swisher to
Join the Lacrosse community at theprolaxblog.blogspot.com
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
by bestbostonsports on Jul 12, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that is mean. I’m definitely a Yankee fan, but I think Ortiz is absolutely amazing. He’s a fierce competitor and a great guy. In the end when the Yankees crush the Red Sox, I want it to be against the real Red Sox, healthy and at their best – not some hobbled pathetic half-pawsox nonsense.
well, I definitely dont care...
I was just stating the obvious. I am mean, and my Hate has no ethics. I will be conscience of that, but will not apologize.
Statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything.
There's nothing to this "theory".
It’s nothing more than regression to the mean. Really, who could have expected that Helton’s 1.252 OPS would regress? That seems totally sustainable.
There was an interesting piece on Fangraphs this morning, here’s the most telling piece:
Most of these guys are playing over their heads and are expected to regress in the 2nd half, including Swisher.
I do somewhat agree with your point
The season is 162 games long. Although none of us realize just how grueling it is, I’m sure it takes a toll on all players. Nice chart rcpratt
"If you're a Yankee fan, or if you're not a Yankee fan - you have to admit, we're winners." -Paul O'Neill
by Chris McKeown on Jul 12, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
The diarist is confusing causation with correlation.
Who gets picked to be in the home run derby? Guys who are hitting well; guys who’ve had a good first half; guys who perhaps have over-peformed in the first half. It is entirely reasonable to assume that those guys won’t hit as well in the second half.
That has nothing to do whatsover with actually participating in the home run derby, but rather their selection to participate, based upon their good first half performance.
by HilltopPark on Jul 12, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
+2
This was my first thought as well. The hot hitter or pitcher who is outside their normal performance curve will almost always regress by season’s end.
+3
Things happen, and sports journalists look for explanations simply to make headlines. Saying that the Home Run Derby messed up Bobby Abreu’s swing makes for a nice easy read, and is a lot less boring than explaining the variance inherent in any rate stat.
This falls into the same category as saying a reliever needs to know exactly which inning he’s pitching, or that a starter needs exactly 4 days rest, no more no less.
There’s a lot that goes into playing baseball well, and a big part of it that we often overlook is muscle memory. Nick Swisher has swung a bat maybe 20,000 times in his life, the fact he’s holding down a job in the majors is testament to his ability to successfully executve the same type of swing over and over again. If one home run derby is going to throw him out of whack, he probably belongs back in A ball.
+4
cus I want to continue the chain
"We're only going to score 17 points?" - Tom Brady
"Well played, Mauer." - Guy from PS3 commercials
-10
Because I wanted to bring balance to the discussion.
+11
to cancel out the last and add my vote :)
The example of Helton is beautiful for this point. The guy had a 1.252 OPS…where was he going to go, up? It was possible, but as a matter of statistics (not baseball) he was much more likely to regress toward the mean.
Also, the correct “control” is not the average player, who unsurprisingly will, on average, play average.
IMO Alex Rios hasn't been the same since he participated in the HR derby
It might just be a coincidence but the year and a half after he participated in it, he was just effing terrible. Looks like he bounced back this year. For this reason, Jays fans aren’t too upset about MLB HR leader Jose Bautista not even being invited. Seriously, how does he not even get invited?!?!!? I guess I’m kinda upset.
I'm on a horse.
by craig in calgary on Jul 12, 2010 11:55 AM EDT reply actions
he should be ther over Wells at least
Bye, Lee :(
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 12, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Have to be
a member of the All Star team to participate, it’s not an “open” competition.
His mother has a tattoo that reads, "Son".
Sharks have a week dedicated to HIM.
"It doesn't take more than one person, to talk to a woman.
Stay thirsty my friends."
by Great Gatsby on Jul 12, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
My bad
didn’t think he made it.
His mother has a tattoo that reads, "Son".
Sharks have a week dedicated to HIM.
"It doesn't take more than one person, to talk to a woman.
Stay thirsty my friends."
by Great Gatsby on Jul 12, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Not all HR Derby experiences are created equal. Abteu hit
41 homeruns in the 2005 derby. That is insane. I could see how that kind of effort might affect his swing, health, etc. Most participants will only hit 3,4, or 5 hrs and go off quietly with just 12-15 swings. I can’t imagine that that will affecft them The risk comes when they do well.
+1
"If you're a Yankee fan, or if you're not a Yankee fan - you have to admit, we're winners." -Paul O'Neill
by Chris McKeown on Jul 12, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we have to consider
many of the derby participants had a hot first half, thus their selection for the derby, and thus a drop in production during the second half the the season.
ultimately
only the participants could tell us if it really affected them.
A-Rod said it messed up his swing. Maybe Abreu over-exerted himself hitting 41 that year, just like Josh Hamilton did another year? Maybe it’s a tiring contest overall, because they may be swinging harder with every swing (because they know they’ll get a nice easy fastball right in their zone). And don’t they have a side award for longest HR?
Maybe looking at total at bats pre- and post-ASB, or other factors such as position played? I know you had a game threshold. It’s a long season, and sometimes it’s still unfair to even look at 1st half against 2nd half numbers when what really matters is the season numbers at season end. A-Rod has hit 14 HR so far, but that doesn’t mean he’s only going to hit 12 for the rest of the season. He can wind up hitting another 20-25 home runs by season’s end.
I’ll just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.
A-Rod has said a lot of things in his career.
Some true, some not. I put far more stock in the numbers than what comes out of some ballplayer’s mouth.
that's nice and good for you
To borrow Shadrack’s signature:
“Statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything.”
I put more stock in what the people who are actually working and playing the game and how they actually feel rather than a fan’s or columnist’s opinion of the situation. I trust former players and coaches and managers more than I trust anyone who has never played the game on a serious competitive level. It could be Chad Huffman telling me that hitting in the HR derby is tiring and exhausting and can affect the rest of his season, and I’d believe him because he’s out there playing it and doing it.
Sure, but ballplayers have an agenda.
If someone participates in the derby and then sucks the second half, more than a few guys are going to use “the derby messed up my swing” as an excuse. I’d trust some players more than others, rightly or wrongly, but (I’m trying not to be a dick here) I don’t give a whole lot of weight to what A-Rod says.
fair enough
and I don’t disagree with the theory that it’s just a regression to the mean. I just think it’s possible, in some cases of a severe drop-off, other factors may be involved that cannot be “easily quantified or categorized.”
Sportswriters and fans are in a never-ending search to try and explain why slumps and losing streaks occur, even though the answer is right in front of their noses. Deep down, they know this, but the alternate stories they come up with are far more interesting than the hard statistical truth.
The fact is, hitters go through hot and cold streaks regardless of their mental toughness, grit, or participation in a derby. It’s a part of baseball. Citing statistical variance is less interesting than blaming the mechanics of his swing, but it’s true. Being a .300 hitter doesn’t mean you get exactly 3 hits every 10 at bats.
Yes, Bobby Abreu had a great first half and comparitively poor second half in 2005. But “first half” and “second half” don’t really mean much statistically. Look at his OPS by month that year:
Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 105 0.261 0.371 0.341 0.712
May 127 0.396 0.535 0.792 1.327
June 120 0.282 0.383 0.495 0.878
July 116 0.214 0.319 0.316 0.635
August 117 0.32 0.419 0.510 0.929
Sept/Oct 134 0.243 0.388 0.388 0.776
Does this really look like somebody who messed his swing up during the Home Run derby? How do you explain the .929 OPS in August?
The most accurate way to describe Abreu’s 2005 season would be to say that he was on fire in the month of May, and beyond that, he had months in both halves of the season that ranged from good to average to poor. But that’s a long, boring headline, so people come up with alternate explanations that are interesting.
by 3460kuri on Jul 12, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
fair
but maybe you need to look even closer.
the 10 July games for Abreu leading to the break in 2005: .739 OPS.
the 17 following the break: .572 OPS.
what i should ask you is: is it 100% coincidental? is there absolutely no connection whatsoever?
what i should ask you is: is it 100% coincidental? is there absolutely no connection whatsoever?
You’re looking for a simple yes/no answer when there isn’t one.
Sure, it’s possible that the Home Run derby throws off a hitter’s swing. My issue is people talking about it like it’s a foregone conclusion, rather than just a possibility or one of dozens of causes.
I’m beating a dead horse. Just because somebody participated in the Home Run Derby and then went through a rough stretch doesn’t mean that one is the sole cause of the other.
Why can’t people accept slumps as a normal part of a stastically-based game, instead of doing mental gymnastics to try and explain them away?
agree with you 95%...
But would like to add a further comment. As statheads we can cite statistical variance as an explanation for the ups and downs of a season, but it’s sort of a cop out.
There are so many fluctuating variables at play that, rather than futilely and disingenuously claiming that we know the exact formula that produced every past event, we admit that it is actually most practical to model a big chunk of almost any source of variance as random noise.
You clearly belong to the same cult as I do, that acknowledges that perhaps the most intellectually shallow thing we can do is to shoehorn past observations into overfit ex post facto explanations. So I’m 95% in your camp.
But, 5% of me also acknowledges that, although it is convenient, useful, and indeed somewhat mature intellectually to model perceived streakiness as random noise, a lot of what we model as noise is not truly random. Mechanical issues in a swing, for instance, or fluctuations in health—-these things are real and will have a real effect on performance. While their onsets and offsets may be random and unpredictable (except, of course, after the fact), that doesn’t mean there aren’t cause and effect relationships at play somewhere in the equation. I mean, you know all this already, so not like I’m giving you a lesson so much as a reminder: Don’t let yourself start mistaking the map (or model) for the territory.
i consider
myself in that camp too, but i believe we too often look only at the macro picture of baseball and chalk too much up to randomness and forget that little details affect how the game is played. from an entire season to one AB.
baseballers are human beings, and are susceptible to everything that affects the rest of us at our jobs, for good and bad.
Here’s something else that I think needs to be mentioned, not sure if it’s been said before. People who are in the home run derby had All Star quality first halves. So you’re comparing their second half against a truly excellent first half, so it’s not necessarily that surprising that the general level of hitting slightly decreased.
Most of the guys who make all star teams, especially before the rosters got huge, crushed the ball in the first half. So it’s not very likely that they would repeat such a high level of success, home run derby or no home run derby.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
How do you get into the HR Derby? Be willing to participate.
I know I haven’t been the same since the 2003 HR Derby, and all I did was watch it.
by designatedquitter on Jul 12, 2010 2:51 PM EDT reply actions
ha ha, THIS made me laugh
Statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything.
This Home Run Derby can't come soon enough.
Yankees all day.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
"If you're not doing it right, you're doing it wrong. And there's no in between." ~Mark "Lunch" McKenzie
I think Swisher.........
Should run for president…. I’d vote for him
by Gangsta Yanksta on Jul 12, 2010 5:54 PM EDT reply actions
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