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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

New York Yankee notes: Beckett a Yankee?

How would you feel about seeing Josh Beckett in pinstripes next season?

Dan Shaughnessy figures the price tag for the soon-to-be 30-year-old right-hander will be too rich for the Boston Red Sox. That, of course, would put the Yankees in play.

Beckett is always an injury risk. But when right he is better than anyone the Yankees have other than CC Sabathia. And we have seen first-hand what kind of big-game pitcher a healthy Beckett can be. If the Yankees were willing to give A.J. Burnett $82.5 million over 5 years, my guess is they would go higher than that for Beckett.

At the least, it is worth serious consideration. Especially since the Yankees might need to replace both Javy Vazquez and Andy Pettitte next season.

Star-divide

  • If you are not tired of reading about how Phil Hughes will be the fifth starter, check out Joel Sherman's column today. As Sherman explains it, the choice is all about upside. And it was Hughes' job to lose all along. Speaking of Hughes, check out this video of Hughes showing off the grip on all of his pitches. Kinda cool.
  • River Avenue Blues follows its look at the best trades of the Brian Cashman era with its take on the worst deals ever made by the Yankee general manager. It really is based on players lost, not guys who flopped once they got to New York.

A few notes today about some former Yankees.

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Beckett has slipped for the last couple of years and his propensity to be injured is an issue.

by jessie1 on Mar 24, 2010 8:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Beckett

Lee and Crawford would be a good start. Beckett not so much, injury prone,leave him in beantown.

by Blackbag on Mar 24, 2010 8:54 AM EDT reply actions  

lol

a good start. What is the finish then?

by yankeechaser on Mar 24, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Absofuckinglutely NOT.

And that’s putting it nicely.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Mar 24, 2010 9:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Why beckett when cliff lee is on the market

Lee is a lefty, just as good of a pitcher if not better than beckett, only slightly older AND is good friends with CC. (easier clubhouse fit) Not to mention lee’s numbers in recent years have been much better than beckett’s who’s numbers are getting worse.

by lololol on Mar 24, 2010 9:05 AM EDT reply actions  

+1

Forget Beckett and go after Lee if he hits the market next year. Lee has been more consistent over the last 2 years and even when Beckett is on Lee is right there with him in terms of dominance.

by Datcon on Mar 24, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hang on a minute

Both Cliff Lee and Josh Beckett are going to be looking for far more than 5 years/$82.5 million as free agents. They are both, inarguably, better than A.J. Burnett, and Josh Beckett will be two years younger than Burnett was when he signed his deal (Lee will be the same age, 32).

Let’s say the Yankees get extremely lucky and manage to sign one of them for 5 years/$100 million.

They will then have $87 million comitted to four players for the 2013 season – A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, AJ Burnett, and whichever pitcher they signed. And then remember that Jeter’s contract is up after this season and CC has the right to opt-out after 2011. Assume that Jeter’s annual salary will be at least $20 million per season. CC is even more troubling; if he pitches poorly the next two seasons, he won’t opt out, and if he pitches well, he will, and the Yankees obviously won’t want to lose him. So it’s reasonable to expect those to to earn at least $45 together in 2013.

So, six players, who are all over the age of 30 (3 or 4 of them (depending on which of Beckett or Lee they sign) over 35) will combine to earn something like $140 million on 2013.

I’ll pass on that.

by 3460kuri on Mar 24, 2010 9:19 AM EDT reply actions  

wow

great analysis

makes the longer term emphasis on Joba AND Hughes as starters even more important

If we keep CC, AJ and Vasquez then having less expensive #4 and #5 starters could be required.

Tex, Jeter, ARod, Mario and Posada is a costly core already. Add the pitching staff and then add Crawford and even the Yankees have to pause.

by MSP Giant on Mar 24, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's a Red Sox

That’s true. But through our hate against Red Sox players we have to realise that Beckett is going to be the 2nd best pitcher on the market next offseason. He’ll probably fetch more than he’s worth, but didn’t we overpay A.J? Yes he’s injury prone, but that’s mainly blister problems that make him skip a start. AJ’s also injury prone, a lot more so than Beckett. Say what you want, but I’d be excited if we signed him.

I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.

Vince Lombardi

by moose35 on Mar 24, 2010 10:15 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't think the Yankees should sign another 30-something starter to a long-term contract.

The Yankees will have CC and Burnett leading the rotation with Hughes and Chamberlain to follow in the near future. The Yanks will probably offer arbitration to Javier Vazquez and if he re-ups, then that’ll work out well for the Yanks on a one year contract. If that doesn’t happen, I’m sure the Yankees can find someone on a one year deal instead of doling another huge contract.

by E-ROC on Mar 24, 2010 11:01 AM EDT reply actions  

What about Gary Matthews Jr.

I heard the Mets are shopping Matthews Jr. I would much rather him in LF than BG and at 2 Million doesnt seem like a bad deal.

by imyrick on Mar 24, 2010 12:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Mets

I really don’t want any rejects from the Mets. He is another steroid case whose production has gone down. I’d play a kid from the minors b4 that washed up bum

by RollingThunder on Mar 24, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Horrible player.

Matthews Jr. doesn’t bring anything to the table except an inflated ego because he’s made a ton of money on one spectacular catch. I’ll take Gardner every day over this guy.

by andrew21 on Mar 24, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

2 million

for a guy that’s been having a WAR of -0,5? Stick me in there, I’ll even take a pay cut.

I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.

Vince Lombardi

by moose35 on Mar 24, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Bronx Poo

We should probably grab Matthews Jr., Milton Bradley, trade for Manny and immediately replace Joe G with Ron Washington because things just aren’t exciting enough.

Global domination, bizarre experiments on youth, our best player squatting in buildings drinking Bacardi, what you call the Evil Empire, I CALL HOME!!!!

by SteveBalboniHOF on Mar 24, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Meh...

depends on the contract, what Jobs and Huuoos do this year too.

I’d much rather see that bottom of the rotation be Joba, Hughs and Zach McCallister.

But if not, Beckett is a former Pissant, but so was Johnny Damon. We got over it I think.

DWTDD

by FreeBradshaw on Mar 24, 2010 12:19 PM EDT reply actions  

This is Stupid...

One word….NOOOOOOO!!!!! I don’t want any players on this teams whose guts I hate. Really…I would have to say I would feel really dirty as a fan to have to root for another Red Sox ahole. We went through this once with Clemens. It wasn’t as bad though since he came from the Jays.

by RollingThunder on Mar 24, 2010 1:47 PM EDT reply actions  

him being a Red Sock

doesn’t necessarily bother me, lest we forget Damon and even Bellhorn and Embree.

but i’d much rather sign Lee. if Pettitte retires, who better to replace him than perhaps the second best LHP in MLB.

by Travis G on Mar 24, 2010 2:14 PM EDT reply actions  

There is no way Cliff Lee is the 2nd best lefty in MLB

Sabathia, Santana, and Lester are all better. He’s probably fourth best.

This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.

by Lord Duggan on Mar 24, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

a cy young award

says he’s better than Lester, in my book.

by phonty on Mar 24, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

WAR over the last 3 years

CC: 20.6
Lee: 14 (missed most of ’07)
Santana: 12.2 (missed part of ’09)
Lester: 11.6 (missed most of ’07)

weighting by ‘recentness’ (e.g., 5-4-3) =
CC: 6.8/year
Lee: 5.2/year
Lester: 4.4/year
Santana: 3.9/year

rest my case… (and i never said he is the second best, only that he’s perhaps the second best).

by Travis G on Mar 24, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well then I think I overreacted to your verbage

there is definitely a case for him being the second best. I would file Lee under “solid” and Lester and Santana under “potentially dominating.”

I realize that this is the subjective type of argument that I always hate, but I feel like Lee isn’t going to get any better, whereas Lester definitely will, and if he is healthy and can return to top form, Johan is a top 3 pitcher in MLB.

As this thread was about free agency, I kind of went the route of, “which lefty would you want to become a Yankee”, in which case I would rather have both Lester and Santana.

This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.

by Lord Duggan on Mar 24, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

solid?

did forget game 1 of the WS? That was down right dominant

by lololol on Mar 24, 2010 3:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah it was

but he’s 32, throws the ball 90 MPH, and is only two years removed from not being able to keep a job at the big league level. A 5-6 year deal for Cliff Lee would be a mistake.

This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.

by Lord Duggan on Mar 24, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

true..

but he throws 90 which means age won’t affect him as much since he is a control pitcher. Guys like Aj or Beckett who are flam throwers have a higher chance if problems if their velocity dips. Lee is more about locating and pitching smart since his stuff isn’t overpowering. Even at a older age a dip in velociity wouldn’t matter, think 2007 mussina at an older age.

by lololol on Mar 24, 2010 4:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

He is a control pitcher, but he still works off his fastball

he said that the biggest improvement that he made from when he was banished to the minors to his comeback was in spotting his fastball.

And while location on a fastball is much more important than ticks on a radar gun, the pitchers who survive with velocities in the 80s really only use their fastball as a token showing.

In 2007 Mussina was all about change ups and different breaks on his curveball. I’m not so sure Lee has the secondary pitches to overcome the inevitable drop in fastball velocity.

This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.

by Lord Duggan on Mar 24, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting?

Using your logic, "And while location on a fastball is much more important than ticks on a radar gun, the pitchers who survive with velocities in the 80s really only use their fastball as a token showing.

How did Greg Maddux win 355 games then? By the way, Mussina sucked wind in ’07, and won 20 in ’08, if you recall.

by Great Gatsby on Mar 25, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wins are quite possibly the worst stat for evaluating pitching

but to answer your question, with control and breaking pitches far beyond anything that Cliff Lee has.

If Cliff Lee could throw a devastating two-seamer like Maddux then, believe me, I would be screaming that we need to sign him. Maddux revolutionized pitching with his two-seamer to lefties that starts out right at their hip and darts over the inside corner for a strike.

Maddux is a pitching genius and a once in a lifetime talent. He is the exception and not the rule.

And Cliff Lee can’t wipe his shoes.

This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.

by Lord Duggan on Mar 25, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're All Forgetting In-House Talent

Kei Igawa for instance….not sure if he’s a lefty or righty but I’m certain if he switched his ERA might come down.

by steelerwheeler on Mar 24, 2010 4:11 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

Cliff Lee is a f’n machine…ma-chine….

Yea we got to him in a game in the WS…had that been any other lineup he went against….Lee would be a champion right now…

Lester ain’t too far behind him..but he is defintely better then santana….

-Announcement Forwarded To The Following: Boston Blowsox, New York Pets, Philadelphia Phonies, And Any Other Team Who Ain't With The Empire.................

Getcha' Rings Up........

by NYYWinsRings27 on Mar 24, 2010 4:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I vote Lee too.

Living in Philly territory I saw just about everyone of his games.

Dudes a monster.

by Gelatin on Mar 24, 2010 4:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Not to old either

But I get the feeling he’ll sign an extension with Seattle. I know he said he wants to test the market, but I’ve got a feeling he’ll like pitching with Felix long term.

I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.

Vince Lombardi

by moose35 on Mar 24, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, Cliff Lee?

I have a sneaking suspision Lee will be an AL dud upon return. His injuries and his couple of descent years (one great one) don’t equal the 18+ and five years. AJ was worth it more for his dependability. Haven’t we seen this scenario before?

Global domination, bizarre experiments on youth, our best player squatting in buildings drinking Bacardi, what you call the Evil Empire, I CALL HOME!!!!

by SteveBalboniHOF on Mar 24, 2010 8:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Don't count Pavano out yet

He’s been pretty good this spring (TIC)

by david d on Mar 25, 2010 5:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd love it..

As you said about Beckett, he’s a big game pitcher. Maybe the best the game has ever seen. As much as I hate saying it, if I had to choose 1 pitcher to throw game 7 of the World Series—it’d be Beckett. The guy’s great. When healthy, he’s one of the best in the game. And like you said, we’ve seen it first-hand, 2003 W.S. The guy is a stud in October. And we’re going to need to spell the end of the Andy Pettitte era next year. I don’t think there’s going to be a better option the Beckett.

by tclaro on Mar 25, 2010 9:37 AM EDT reply actions  

I'd choose Tim Lincecum or Roy Halladay

but that’s just me……

This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.

by Lord Duggan on Mar 25, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

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