How long can Derek Jeter continue to defy the effects of aging?
by designatedquitter on Mar 19, 2010 2:47 PM EDT
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PrintBig League Stew's Alex Remington blogs on this subject today.
Using the 3 main sabermetric prediction models (meh) and his own experience and gut, he provides an answer that "Is Jeter the Greatest Shortstop Ever" posters may not like. First of all, he says Honus Wagner is the greatest shortstop, possibly the greatest player period, an opinion shared by some, but not all on the Jeter/Greatest post.
The predictive formulae all have Jeter barely hitting .300 this year, and regressing seriously defensively as well. BLS sees things a bit more brightly, agreeing with Bill James that a .317 batting average appears to be more in the cards, but that the big slip is coming fairly soon.
Given Jeter's work ethic, both offensively and defensively, and his opposite field hitting style, I think Jeter is as a good a bet as anyone to confound the historical norms for shortstop, but those norms are against him.
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HOW DARE THEY.....
Well, Eventually an article like this will be true.. I mean, the Dude cannot play forever.
But Hey.. Jeter will get 3000Hits as a Yankee, thats in about 2.5 years, or Four if you listen to this guy.
Jeter hits a lot of balls on the ground
and I think that his average is going to dip when he loses some foot speed.
I think very soon we will start seeing infielders playing him a lot deeper, not worried about him beating out an infield hit, and that could very well take away a lot of seeing eye singles.
I don’t think we’re there yet though. I think he still has one, maybe two, years left in the ~.320 range.
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
Considering his lifetime average is only ".317", I'd say
one or two years in the .320 range may be optimistic. On the other hand, I hope you’re right.
Jeter's weighted average for the last 3 years has been .319
And would probably be considerably higher without the slump that he went to in the ’08 season after he took a pitch on the hand, but refused to miss games.
I don’t think it’s overly optimistic to think that he’d keep up those numbers for 1-2 more years, especially with the move to New Yankee Stadium which he seemed to like last season.
His defensive range……I can’t say I’m as bullish there….
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
Jeter still has something left in the tank
His speed has barely slowed down, and everything that makes him a good player are things that decline slowly. He has very little power and relies on the in-out swing to go along with a great eye to hit singles. Single hitters seem to play well into their 40’s, so I’d say Jeter has 3-4 years of this type of production.
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
+1
That late swing allows him more time to get the bat on the ball. That’s all Rose did after 4,000..don’t think he pulled the ball once. As good as Jete’s legs have been he has never been quick out of the box…he’s probably the easiest ‘top of the order 20 steals per season guy’ to double up. Loosing a step won’t hurt the average more than 5 points. Agree with all about the defense, let’s hope Jete doesn’t return to ’08 form. Note: Jete is the All-Time Yankee leader in hits, AB, singles and HBP; assuming he can play 273 games, score 386 runs, 1168 TB, 96 2B, and 24SB he will be the all-time leader in those categories as well. Question: How long does the Yankee captain, a 10X+ all-star, 5+W.S. rings, the yanks all-time leader in hits, SB, runs, singles, doubles, HBP and the only Yankee to ever amass 3,000 hits play? Answer, as long as he wants. Prediction: Jete plays 300 games @ SS in ’10 and ’11 while accumulating 400 more hits.
by steelerwheeler on Mar 22, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
At least a few more good years
His speed has not declined at all. Last year his SB went back up to near his max for a year (30). As stated before, the type of hitter he is, it would be hard for him to take a big drop. A down year would be .290 avg and .360 OBP which is still better than half the leadoff hitters.
I honestly love reading this stuff....
Jeter just gonna put his head down and work harder…and go even harder for another ring.
People love to throw rocks at the thrown….
"If you don't know what you're doing... just rush the quarterback" - LT
+1
Yankees all day.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
"If you're not doing it right, you're doing it wrong. And there's no in between." ~Mark "Lunch" McKenzie
He has a secret weapon that allows him to stay steady until he is 45
VIAGRA,and that penile male enhancement stuff you see on all the free porn sites.
Oh boy I can't wait,there is going to be a Ho Park in the bullpen.I wonder if we can use the bullpen phone to order condoms with our pizza that will sit next to the keg?I already bought my spurs and chaps.Nevermind my wife found out about the bullpen,who's the Judas?
by cashman bashman on Mar 19, 2010 11:06 PM EDT reply actions
I feel like you do a line of coke and watch an hour of porn before every time you come on here to post comments.
Am I in the ballpark?
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
by Lord Duggan on Mar 19, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
MLB on Yayho.com
There goes another knock on Rafeal Palmeiro if it happens. Hey perhaps CashBash is just following the winning formula of Steve Howe, LT, Ron Washington, and the ’86 Mets.
Global domination, bizarre experiments on youth, our best player squatting in buildings drinking Bacardi, what you call the Evil Empire, I CALL HOME!!!!
by SteveBalboniHOF on Mar 22, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem with these projection sites
is that they cannot take into account historically great players aka statistical outliers.. Basically they look at stats and career arcs of every player to have ever played a position and compile them to create a statistical average The problem is when you encounter guys like Jeter and Mo who are bucking those trends and producing well into their late 30’s. History doesn’t have a tremendous precedent for those types of player’s therefore the statistics are likely to be skewed.
Yes, I know it is a lot more complicated than that, but the gist is that great players don’t have any comparable peers throughout history. therefore trying to compare them to all other players is an exercise in futility.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Mar 20, 2010 2:18 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
+1
Great players are by definition “great”, and so projecting them on the same scale as “average” ballplayers is by definition wrong.
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
by Lord Duggan on Mar 20, 2010 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yes, but-
Are we comparing him to the average player, or as a 36 year old shortstop with a .318 career average, to the “average great player?” I don’t know how these models work, but I suspect that the set of players they look at includes the Ripkens, Aparicios, and Ozzies and the very few others still shortstopping at this age. Then again, it may still be that Jeter is the “outlier” who messes up this statistical set, or at least moves the norm.
by designatedquitter on Mar 23, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
Totally agree with you, rec’d
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
More to the story
Great english here. But you’re seriously right. I’d also like to add training methods aren’t what they were during the Great Depression or even the Seventies when players were seen in the dugout with bottles of whisky and smoking. Granted, Wagner might have been home with the family plowing the fields in the offseason, but he didn’t have high tech muscle isolating machines or nutrional specialists (some worse than others…). Sabermetrics fails to take into account evolved training or medical science. Miserably.
Global domination, bizarre experiments on youth, our best player squatting in buildings drinking Bacardi, what you call the Evil Empire, I CALL HOME!!!!
by SteveBalboniHOF on Mar 22, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Alex Remington?
I’m sorry, thought you meant Remington Steele? Anyway the real question for Yankeeland is how long should the length of his new deal be? Regardless of the fact, that he is the face of the franchise, I would not go longer than 4 years. For those who might say, well they gave A-Rod a 10 year deal, very true, but if you saw the rocket he hit over the scoreboard yesterday, that is reason No.1. Reason No.2, they would love to see him break the homerun record wearing pinstripes, and I mean LOVE.
That might've been
the farthest home-run I’ve ever seen. When I saw the swing, I just though “Wow, that’s waay gone”.
The Jeter situation will get worked out like this:
Jeter says how long he wants to play and how much he wants to get paid doing it. Cashman negotiates it for a 1 or 2 million dollar lower contract and they shake hands. Jeter’s earned the right to get paid whatever he wants. He’s also the type of guy who won’t stick around playing when he feels he can’t give 100%, so I’m thinking this gets negotiated really fast.
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
Actually...
I only mentioned length of contract, not dollars, that is the real issue. Jeter or not it’s sill a business, and I would not go that far to say “Jeter says how long he wants to play and how much he wants to get paid doing it.”
by Great Gatsby on Mar 20, 2010 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree length is the main issue with Jeter, which is somewhat tangled up with what position he will play toward the end of that contract.
I think, though, that the “it’s still a business” standpoint is a little tricky. Since the point of business isn’t actually to win games but to make money, they’d have to weigh how much revenue they’d stand to lose by angering fans if it were perceived they weren’t treating Jeter fairly against how much they’d recoup with a stronger/cheaper team.
Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?
If we care about the difference between .300 and .317
it would mean that Jeter’s walks and slugging have gone down significantly. Basically, we’re talking one hit a hit a month difference between those two averages.
Having said that, I would expect to see Jeter’s production fall this year, along with most of the team’s production, if only because opposing teams are going to have a better idea of how to play the new stadium. And a year from now we’ll be hearing that Jeter is washed up because he hit .017 points below his lifetime average.
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