Why New York will beat Boston in 2010
by Ronster22 on Mar 16, 2010 3:09 PM EDT
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Say what you want about SI's Tom Verducci. For me, he's kind of hit and miss -- but mostly miss of late. However his latest effort caught my attention -- no not because he mentioned Curt Schilling (a guy a thoroughly despise), but because he actually wrote about something so simple, yet so overlooked that I found it completely fascinating.
He writes that while teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and other top tier clubs spend gazillions to assemble formidable lineups, benches and rotations, favor almost always falls to those teams whose rotations make the most starts.
It is a compelling read, and I must give credit to Schilling (the hump).click her for the full story
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Here is the real reason.
Because if they don’t I will withhold Papis steroids again,and quit giving Wakefield his Viagra and there doomed again without me having to lose to much money on my sales.
Oh boy I can't wait,there is going to be a Ho Park in the bullpen.I wonder if we can use the bullpen phone to order condoms with our pizza that will sit next to the keg?I already bought my spurs and chaps.
by cashman bashman on Mar 18, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
How much did it hurt to type out "I must give credit to Schilling"?
I’m guessing “quite a lot.” Oddly enough, the World Series has often been decided not by having a bunch of starters, but 2 good ones, since you only need 4 wins. 2001- Schilling & Johnson. 2003 Beckett & Burnett. Even in 2009 the Yanks only used 3.
The theory makes sense, since fewer innings from starters equates with beat up bullpens. Also, since most teams ride their starters as long as they are healthy, it’s another way of saying “if we stay healthy we have a shot,” which every manager says every February. How often does a healthy pitcher come out of a rotation for ineffectiveness alone? Not that often, especially on a good team.
Last but not least, starting pitching is the hardest part of the team to replace, particularly in the middle of the season. If Schilling’s remark is looked at in this light, it seems fairly obvious. Verducci’s prediction that the Yankee rotation seems more likely than the Red Sox rotation to hold up the whole season should not be controversial, either.
I hope that this eases some of the pain of having to credit Curt Schilling with amazing insight.
by designatedquitter on Mar 16, 2010 4:50 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah I didn't find Schilling's insight to be amazing
it seems like kind of an obvious point; however, you rarely hear it discussed.
The starting pitchers are the most valuable asset to the team. If those assets are effective and healthy, they will make a lot of starts. If your most important players are effective and healthy, you will win a lot of games.
It’s not earth shattering stuff, but it seems to get overlooked. I don’t think that’s because we’re “wasting our time breaking down every tiny detail of the game”, or whatever he said in the article. I think it’s because this kind of gets lumped into “injuries.”
Like when CMW went down in 2008, we didn’t say “Well now our top starters will make fewer starts”, we said “There goes our best starting pitcher” but the conclusion of “We’re fucked” was still the same.
I think it does a great job of giving a name to something that people already knew.
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
hey not trying to be a dick, but Burnett got hurt early in 2003 and didn't pitch in the playoffs.
just clarifing. but the Marlins had a crazy rotation that year.
Section 203 Row 15 Seat 1
Don't worry, you're not a dick.
I go from memory and it often fails.
by designatedquitter on Mar 17, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I had shrinkage, and vomited in my mouth ...
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
What if you have five Livan Hernandez’s starting all season for your team? Does it make that team playoff-bound? Above .500 autimatically?
by Scooby Snacks on Mar 16, 2010 6:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
You may have a point
But I’m gonna throw a few projections out there for the sake of argument.
CHONE projections of GS for the pitchers he mentions:
NYY:
Sabathia (30)
Burnett (30)
Vazquez (30)
Pettite (29)
Hughes (22)
(Total: 141)
BOS:
Beckett (30)
Lester (29)
Lackey (29)
Matsuzaka (24)
Buchholz (28)
(Total: 140)
I couldn’t get my hands on any other projections, so feel free to argue with me if you are more successful. I agree that the trend is hard to ignore, but to say that the Yankees will most certainly get more starts from their front five than the Red Sox is subject for debate at the very least.
well...
lackey has been hurt two springs in a row…so a 31 year old with health problems at 29 and 30 is definitely cause for some concern. matsuzaka isnt starting the season on the ML roster. buchholz has never thrown 100 IP for the sox and wakefield is like 43 or 44. its not too much of a stretch to say the yanks will get more starts.
I think you could also easily add a few starts to CC and Hughes. Even Joba started 30 or so games last year under restrictions. no reason to say hughes wouldnt do the same.
I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Mar 17, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
This bothers me
This is like a John Madden statement. “The team with more points usually goes on to win.”
"I'm just tryin' to be the great, tryin' to get a piece of cake
Take it offa your plate, eat it right in your face" --Lil Wayne
No it means you don't win with just offense
Offense wins games, defense wins championships.
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
Well, it'll probably decide
the pennant because of the fact that we’re so tightly matched against the Red Sox. I think we have the better team, but it’s going to come down who gets the least injuries during the season, which means let’s be glad we don’t have the Met’s medical staff.
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
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