What's the deal with 100 pitches?
by Travis G on Mar 1, 2010 11:00 AM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintWhile pitchers back in the 50's and 60's would average about 100 pitches per start, they would go longer on 'good days' and shorter on 'bad days.' In other words, when the starter was pitching well, he would be allowed to go past 130 pitches. And if he wasn't, he'd rarely go beyond 70. In the modern game, managers often force starters to continue pitching, even when they're ineffective, and even when they are, won't let them go much past 110.
I'll let Keith Woolner sum up:
Pitchers in the 1950s came out of the game when their performance dictated it; pitchers today come out of the game when their workload dictates it.
Why is this the case?
There seem to be several reasons:
1. Specialization
What's happened to the long reliever in MLB? They're practically extinct. What used to be a vital cog for winning ballclubs has given way to more pitchers pitching fewer innings (e.g. the LOOGY and the 8th-inning guy). For example, Al Aceves, the closest the Yankees have to a long reliever, averaged less than two innings per appearance last year. Perhaps managers don't have enough confidence in said relievers to let the opposing batters see them more than once.
2. Offense
While pitchers are averaging about the same number of pitchers per start as they did in the past, they don't pitch as frequently (the five-man rotation began in the early 70's) or as efficiently. The DH, lower mound, smaller ballparks, smaller K-zone, juiced balls, PEDs and an appreciation for walks have all contributed to making life tougher on pitchers. While Sandy Koufax averaged 19 complete games per year (from 1961-66), CC Sabathia has never had more than 10 in any season. Though I'm not sure why this means managers have to force struggling starters to stay in the game; perhaps they feel a need to 'get their money's worth': since they won't let them go 130+ pitches on a good day, they need to get more on a bad day.
3. Longevity
There is certainly more thought and care put into extending pitchers' careers. It's not just 'what can you do this season?', but 'what can you do five years from now?' Managers and executives realize that taking precautions with pitchers can extend their careers (which is also sound fiscal management). And nowadays high-pitch games are seen as more detrimental than, say, more games at lower pitch-counts. (Two 100-pitch games are easier on the pitcher than one game of 50 and another of 150. Anyway, that's the thinking.)
Any other reasons I'm missing?
Slightly off topic...
In 1988 (the first year full league pitch data is available) we saw 134 pitches/game/team and 21708/year/team. And in 2009 we saw 147 pitches/game/team and 23814/year/team.
So 2009 teams threw about 2100 more pitches than 1988 teams (though nowadays it's spread out over slightly more pitchers). What's perhaps more interesting (than why is there such a difference between the usage of modern pitchers vs. 50 years ago) is why there is such a vast difference in only the last 20 years. The DH, lower mound and PEDs all existed in 1988, just as today. What could make for that 2100 pitch difference?
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Concerning your last point:
Could it just be that 2009 has, on average worse pitchers and better hitters than in 1988? Or is it truly a trend? Could we get year by year data, perhaps in graph format?
Also, while you’re at it, could I get a double shot of espresso and a tuna on rye? kthnx
:)
MLB changed the mound height
in 1969, lowering it from 15 inches to 10 inches. Studies have indicated that such a change has led to increased stress on pitchers, particularly in the shoulder area ( http://www.sportsmedicine.com/node/37 ).
I think the biggest factor more than anything else is money. 40 years ago, top pitchers were lucky to make $100,000 per season. Today’s elite pitchers nearly make that much per start. It’s the same reason why you don’t drive your Porsche back and forth to work every day in the rain and snow.
Medical science has evolved as well, and we have a better idea (or maybe we’re just less clueless) about how harmful throwing a baseball overhand really is to somebody’s arm.
+1
Free agency is definitely the cause of this.
Starting pitchers getting big salaries means that teams feel the pressure to use them, but not overuse them, on every start.
Also, free agency lead to the creation of bullpen positions like “closer”, “set up man”, “specialist”, “long man” etc, and into scamming teams into thinking that these were important.
I have no hard statistics to back this up, but it would seem to me that more specialization would lead to more pitchers being used, and when a pitcher comes into the game fresh, knowing that he will likely only face a few batters, he is more likely to waste pitches.
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
Holy shit
I agree with both of you,Darth Duggan and make my noodles kuri3460
I wish I were an Oscar Myer wiener.I farted in the bathtub and the bubbles messaged my pee pee.You can not kill what you did not create.There is a brown snake in the toilet so look out.
by cashman bashman on Mar 1, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
Delicate Machine
My wife was taking Yoga classes and I decided to join the group a day. (I promised not to make her laugh, but I wound up making everyone laugh and had to leave) Her instructor showed a video of athletes using Yoga, sometimes without knowing it. That’s the first time I saw the in depth medical pictures of a pitchers arm actually seperating and extending from his body when he throws. It really opened my eyes to how technical all these ‘mechanics’ of pitching have to be. They really are like delicate machines. During the juice era, I thought the mound should be moved back up to help prevent injuries, but not as much now. I think it would be a lot better for the game and the athletes, but moneyball probably wound never let something like that happen either.
Global domination, bizarre experiments on youth, our best player squatting in buildings drinking Bacardi, what you call the Evil Empire, I CALL HOME!!!!
by SteveBalboniHOF on Mar 1, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Could be any number of factors...
…umpire strike zone has changed; teams/pitchers willing to throw more balls to get hitters to chase (the waste pitch); with the “diluting” somewhat of pitchers talent, accuracy is not as good.
Just my thoughts,
Wazoony
Lowering of the mound ... the great neutralizer
Dropping the mound height had as a profound and dynamic change to the game as any adding the DH in my opinion. There’s no question it sparked an uptick in offense, and added more stress and injury risk to pitchers due to the change in angle. Pitchers today are almost throwing level compared to the days of Feller and Koufax …
But here’s another. As an AAU/Little League/Pony coach, I’ve watched as league officials, parents manipulate pitch counts and innings pitched to protect young arms. I think it’s a good idea to a point. But I also believe too much coddling actually exposes the arm to greater injury risk.
As a kid, I would indulge in games of burnout, long toss, and pretty much anything else that encouraged me to launch a ball, rock or object. That’s how we strengthened our arms. So many of today’s kids arrive at the games with surgical tubing other stretching devices. I’ve listened to parents yell at their kids not to throw in the outfield, or at distances more than 40 feet. Are you serious?
I think some of the advancements in medicine and training have been amazing. But when it comes to strengthening an arm nothing beats throwing … a lot, and at incrementally greater distances. To be a great painter, one needs to paint. To be a great race car driver, one needs to drive. Same can be said for today’s young pitchers. Throw, throw and then throw some more!
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
I can't site the source,
but I remember reading in Time Magazine in the last couple years that the majority of people who get Tommy John Surgery aren’t professional athletes they are high school and college kids.
I knew two pitchers on my College’s team had the scars on their elbow.
I think awareness is good.
Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.
by Edwantsacracker on Mar 1, 2010 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
Here's another:
Kids concentrating on one sport only from the time they’re ten years old, and playing year round. Even though most little leagues don’t let kids throw more than every other game, or a certain number of innings per week, they’re still pitching all year, and often in more than one league. Once upon a time, most of these kids would have spent the winter playing basketball or hockey or running track. By the time teenagers turn pro, there’s already a lot of mileage on their arms- many have already had some kind of surgery.
by designatedquitter on Mar 1, 2010 2:33 PM EST reply actions
Re Woolner's statement
While I agree that that’s how it looks, I think the statement may lead people to believe that Pitchers aren’t being used efficiently with regards to their performance. There has been (anecdotal) research showing that in bad starts, pitchers aren’t pitching differently than in their good starts (I can’t think of the other article I’m remembering). That is not to say that differences in outings are all just luck. Rather, the the variation in pitcher performance is outweighed by other, stronger factors, like how number of times through the order.
A case can be made that pitchers aren’t being used less efficiently with regards to performance, their workloads are just being monitored more closely.
He may not be Koufax
But in a steel cage match to see who is first to the hogie i’m taking CC
I wish I were an Oscar Myer wiener.I farted in the bathtub and the bubbles messaged my pee pee.You can not kill what you did not create.There is a brown snake in the toilet so look out.
Pitch selection
Sliders (or the “nickel curve”) were still a new concept in the 60s. Splitters didn’t get popular until the late 70s and 80s. These are the tools of the power pitchers—guys who throw hard and develop arm problems. I don’t have metrics to back this up either but I’m always wary of the guy who throws 95+ with a split and a slider, and how long he’ll last before developing arm problems.
Hughes drops the slider and picks up a change. AJ is working on a change. Change-ups fell out of vogue for a while but they seem to be back. I don’t think this is coincidence. Same concept as a split (slightly less speed, ball drops out of the zone) but much less damage on the arm. Lots of organizations restrict the use of sliders for developing pitchers.
Just a thought.
"I'm just tryin' to be the great, tryin' to get a piece of cake
Take it offa your plate, eat it right in your face" --Lil Wayne
One more ...
I believe all of this plays into injuries — especially young kids who are still growing pitching year-round. There’s a difference between pitching and throwing. Kids can throw all day (long tossing) and suffer little more than a sore arm for a day. Pitching — especially when it’s unsupervised can be disastrous.
I’ve seen a number of kids pushed by their parents to pitch, only to suffer catastrophic injuries (including one Tommy John surgery).
I teach all of my pitchers three types of fastballs, and two different change-ups. I also stress changing speeds—adding and subtracting. That can turn those 5 pitches into 15 or more. I do teach them how to throw a proper curve (because I know when kids are with their friends they are going to experiment, and I want them to at least be throwing it properly). But I don’t call it in a game for kids under 14.
In all my years coaching (25+) I’ve had fewer than 5 arm injuries, none of them catastrophic (except one, but that’s because the kid fell off a skateboard.)
Certainly all of the things mentioned above are valid points … But I for one would love to see the mound raised to it’s original height.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
Specialization and the long reliever
I think the answer to your question is that long relief went the way of the long start.
Nowadays you have five starters, who are expected to go 6-7 innings per start with several days rest in between.
You have several pitchers – closer, setup man or men, middle relief, specialists (usually against lefties) – who are expected to pitch no more than one or two innings but train to do so frequently.
Because the starter is only expected to go 6-7 innings (unlike the 1950s, when he was expected to finish the game), the only time you need “long” relief (three or more replacement innings) is if one of your starters gets knocked out very early, say in the first 2-3 innings. However, instead of tying up a roster spot with another pitcher who has trained to pitch several innings at one time, but has no regular schedule for doing so, you have more flexibility if you train another middle reliever and use a couple of them to provide “long” relief when necessary.
Mickey C
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