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Our bold predictions for 2010

This isn't about being dead-on-balls accurate; it's more about the 'bold' part.

Travis -

Jesus Montero becomes the #6 hitter by the All-Star break. It goes down like this: Montero tears up Triple-A, to the tune of .310/.370/.520, and is showing enough on defense to make the experts believe in him as a long-term catcher. Meanwhile, Nick Johnson breaks his wrist when he plays first (to give Tex a day off) in late April, and misses the rest of the season. Granderson takes the #2 spot (as he's hitting lefties better), and the Yanks rotate the DH spot between Posada, Tex, Swisher, Jeter and Arod. Jesus' great half-season forces the Yankees to promote him; there's no reason to keep his bat in the minors when he could help the ML team, so he comes up in mid-July and quickly becomes the #6 hitter and DH (and occasional catcher). He posts a solid .270/.330/.440 line with the Yankees.

jscape -

I picked Mike Mussina in 2008, and he pitched 200 innings for the first time in 4 years, with 150 K and a 1.22 WHIP. Oh, and he won 20 games.

I picked Robbie Cano in 2009, and he posted a career high 129 OPS+ in the first 200 hit campaign of his career.

I've spent a lot of time this offseason thinking about Curtis Granderson, though I haven't quite clearly distilled my thoughts before. 

I've been worried about his splits, though the 70 point drop in 2009 BABIP against lefties precisely covers the gap between his 2009 and 2008 splits. So there's 1 cause for hope.

I've worried about his pull tendencies making him easier to pitch to and easier to shift against. Grand Central walked a career high 72 times in 2009, besting his 71 in 2008. That's a positive trend. 

And all of Granderson's homers would easily clear the walls in New Yankee Stadium. He had basically the same number of extra base hits in 2009 as 2008, so while he'll never approach his 23 triples of 2007, he's basically traded some doubles for homers. Loft a couple more flies over the short wall, and we're in line for a treat.

My bold prediction: Curtis Granderson - .290/.370/.520, 32 HR, 15 SB, 3 CS

Ed -

At 39, Jorge Posada shows his age. Francisco Cervelli ends up starting more games behind the plate.
Nick Johnson takes advantage of Yankee Stadium and hits more home runs than Johnny Damon.
Brett Gardner hits at least .275 and steals 50 bases.

Star-divide

3460kuri -

Recognizing that Javy Vazquez is unlikely to return in 2011 and Andy Pettite may retire or begin to decline at any moment, Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi will cast aside conventional wisdom about defined pitching roles and find ways to give both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes the opportunity to each pitch 150 innings in 2010. The NY Post will cry foul, Goose Gossage will tell us why he thinks an 8th inning setup guy is more valuable than a starter, and Pinstripe Alley's readers will engage in a debate that exceeds the Posada vs. Molina argument in fire, scope, and intensity. The experiment will work, though, as all five starters and Phil Hughes will qualify for the ERA title and post sub-4.10 ERAs, leading to a repeat World Series matchup versus the Phillies. This time, Joba Chamberlain will outpitch Roy Halladay in the decisive Game 6, striking out 14 Phillies hitters in 8 innings on 112 pitches, while only giving up three walks, all of them intentional to Chase Utley (who winds up hitting .435 for the season and .735 for the Postseason). In the aftermath of victory, Mariano Rivera will announce his retirement effective immediately, and a reporter will remind us that Joba posted a 0.37 ERA in relief in 2007. Joba will find that reporter, kick him in the groin as hard as he can, and nobody will be able to blame him for it.

Brandon -

I had to think long and hard about this one. I have a few bold predictions for the 2010 season. First, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain both have set roles that do not change during the season. Hughes in the rotation, Joba in the pen. Joba ends up competing with Dave Robertson for the main set-up man role. Second, Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson turn out to fit in the lineup perfectly and the offense doesn't skip a beat. Jesus Montero comes into the Yankees lineup midseason after an injury and proves to be an MLB ready top player. Finally, the really bold prediction. Alex Rodriguez wins MVP hitting .325 with 48 HR. Not really the boldest predictions, but the Yankees do repeat, winning the World Series over the Giants.

CYC -

The Yankees' pitching may be one of the only areas that didn't ignite heated off-season debate and dissension. While some questioned the ability of old friend Javy Vasquez to successfully transfer his NL dominance over to the unforgiving AL East, most have to agree he's a worthy #4 starter. My prediction? The rotation will be more than fine, but in terms of the bullpen, the disintegration of the young mini-alliance from 2009 is going to take its toll. While none of our relievers were superstars in them of themselves, they formed a kind of camaraderie and unity over the season that effected a Megatron-type force. Our 2010 pen is perhaps stacked with more individual talent, but the motley crew of Chan Ho Park, Joba, Boone Logan, and a handful of other also-rans, is going to need some time to gel before making an impact. As long as a.) Mariano stays healthy/stable and b.) Girardi doesn't flip out and start concocting weird pen sequences like he's ordering off a Chinese menu, then there won't be any great implosion. But I predict that there might be a little roughness in the heart of the rotation at first (Andy, AJ), but that this will be eclipsed by the mild embroiling in the pen. It'll get there, but not seamlessly. Kind of like trying to get a bunch of kindergartners to line themselves up against the wall according to height.

---------------------------------------------------------------

There you have it. Who's boldest and who's right?

0 recs  |  Comment 38 comments |

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kuri you made my day

and def the boldest. jscape yours is the most believable i think, although i gotta hand it to Travis for the Nick Johnson injury pick. Would love to see jesus crushing HRs by the end of the season.

by GriffMan on Feb 24, 2010 11:10 AM EST reply actions  

is there any chance that he

Can make a move to LF. Because his bat sounds awesome and there is a open spot there for him.

by imyrick on Feb 24, 2010 11:40 AM EST reply actions  

reports are he lacks the foot speed to shag balls

much less play the outfield.

"Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake!"-Daniel Plainview

by yankee come lately on Feb 24, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha!

ha! Broken wrist. ha! Megatron.

I predict that every prediction in this post will come true, including any in the comments section.

by 209209 on Feb 24, 2010 11:57 AM EST reply actions  

Those picks aren't bold- here are some bold picks, which I stand by-

1. Deficient concrete problem at the new Stadium is much worse than originally thought. 714 structural cracks open up, forcing the Yankees to play their first 81 games on the road. They go 50-31.

2. Wendy’s triple burger sponsors a giveaway to charity for every triple the Yankees hit. Gardner and Granderson combine for 65 triples, although Gardner stops at third on a couple of obvious inside the park home runs.

3. Pettitte and Burnett injure their arms during insanely cold and wet opening series in Boston, forcing spot starters Igawa and Park to carry the staff through mid- June.

Those are bold picks.

by designatedquitter on Feb 24, 2010 12:37 PM EST reply actions  

Wendy’s triple burger sponsors a giveaway to charity for every triple the Yankees hit. Gardner and Granderson combine for 65 triples, although Gardner stops at third on a couple of obvious inside the park home runs.

Now that is a prediction I like.

by 3460kuri on Feb 24, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I predict the Yankees will do a 2 man rotation

and use the bullpen for the rest.

In an unfathomable effort of retardation, it works…Girardi’s the man of the year…and the Bullpen Cretins get their wish!

"I got a team that even Hakeem couldn't dream!"

#88 ya'll

by FreeBradshaw on Feb 24, 2010 12:40 PM EST reply actions  

Heck yes!

Sabathia and Vazquez will have ERAs of like 0.05!!!!1111 (In 65 innings of work).

Every1 to teh pennnnnn11

by Leviticus6688 on Feb 24, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Why do we even have starters?

by YankeesPWNu on Feb 25, 2010 12:50 AM EST up reply actions  

I think we should have a 1 pitch starter then

bring in the RELIEF!

"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa."
-- manager Casey Stengel

by McDaniel on Feb 25, 2010 8:27 AM EST up reply actions  

I predict

That this season, the bylaws of this blog get officially changed to read that none of us are allowed to insult each other EXCEPT FOR FreeBradshaw, who is to be congratulated for describing his intellectual superiors as “cretins.” I regard this as a safe prediction, not a “bold” one.

by 209209 on Feb 25, 2010 9:03 AM EST up reply actions  

That 's stupid

and how does shit taste cuz your eating freedb’s shit right now. LOL

"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa."
-- manager Casey Stengel

by McDaniel on Feb 25, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

What?

“distilled my thoughts before”…You are in the wrong state to be doing distilling my friend.
Hahahaha! I don’t recall the last time I distilled my thoughts.

by Great Gatsby on Feb 24, 2010 12:56 PM EST reply actions  

Hughes and Joba

will both be in the starting rotation by June 1. Posada cedes catching duties to Cervelli because Cervelli says so. Gardner hurts his ego and Winn and Thames platoon in left by mid-June. Granderson hits .295, has 15 trips, 33 HR, and scores 121.

by david d on Feb 24, 2010 1:12 PM EST reply actions  

ed

i echo each and every one of your thoughts… thanks for giving Gardy some props. Feel like everyone is waiting for this guy to fail, just cause he doesn’t hit the ball 450ft. Do some damage with your legs Brett

by Flynner on Feb 24, 2010 1:19 PM EST reply actions  

+1

Some people only find value in crushing the ball like Jesus. While that’s important, there’s plenty more to the game than that.

by Leviticus6688 on Feb 24, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Kuri

that was just a piece of pure genius.

This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.

by Lord Duggan on Feb 24, 2010 1:31 PM EST reply actions  

Here's mine ...

Johnson does get hurt, but he does so driving a Porsche and getting a — Oh, wait. That’s already been done. …

Here’s my top three:
—Much to the chagrin of just about everyone on PA, Kei Igawa makes 3 brilliant starts for the Yankees …
—Melky Cabrera wins a starting job for the Braves and posts .310/16/81 and makes the NL All-Star team where is joined by his buddy Robinson Cano. The two pose for pictures before Robbie wins the MVP slugging a two – run double in the 10th.
—AJ Burnett posts his first 20 win season and wins the Cy Young Award

Okay, one more … Jesus Montero debuts at the stadium and rips a foul ball that catches Nick Johnson in the leg … clearing a starting spot in the lineup for himself.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Feb 24, 2010 1:43 PM EST reply actions  

I like ’em all.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Feb 24, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Cervelli hits for the cycle against Pavano

FreeBradshaw’s head explodes out of awesomess.

"I'm just tryin' to be the great, tryin' to get a piece of cake
Take it offa your plate, eat it right in your face" --Lil Wayne

by Sgurd0187 on Feb 24, 2010 3:34 PM EST reply actions  

FB has to post pictures afterwards.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Feb 24, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ll make a note of it.

Hopefully the head on my shoulders is the one that explodes tho

"I got a team that even Hakeem couldn't dream!"

#88 ya'll

by FreeBradshaw on Feb 24, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Feb 24, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

dammit,

http://forumuploads.animutationportal.com/317_4649883ea1bd4.gif

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Feb 24, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa."
-- manager Casey Stengel

by McDaniel on Feb 25, 2010 8:27 AM EST up reply actions  

here we go

Posada gets hurt, Cervelli decides he’s going to take the reins and has Girardi catching. Burnett has trouble with Girardi catching so Jesus is brought up for the load. Jesus starts hitting moon shots. Pettite shows fatigue very early in the season so Swish takes his spot. Swish wins the Cy Young. Yanks beat the Natinals in 7 for the 28th championship.

by blevs4 on Feb 24, 2010 4:38 PM EST reply actions  

CYC’s predictions are so bold. The bullpen will be shaky, way to go out on a limb!

by Wraithpk on Feb 24, 2010 4:55 PM EST reply actions  

Pull the Other One, It's Got Bells

3460kuri: The day Joba strikes out 14 and throws 112 pitches in 8 innings is the day pigs fly! 112 pitches is FIVE innings for Joba, not eight, which is why he belongs in the pen. The bullpen looks shaky as it is and Joba wears it out with his high-pitch counts.

Speaking of the pen, Boone Logan and Damaso Marte? Oh lord, nooooooo….. Yanks need a LH pitcher.

by Ossian7 on Feb 24, 2010 9:32 PM EST reply actions  

Lefties are over-rated. MORE RIGHTIES!

by YankeesPWNu on Feb 25, 2010 12:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Ed wins

for most realistic prediction. (plus I have a lot of money on you know who)

"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa."
-- manager Casey Stengel

by McDaniel on Feb 25, 2010 8:30 AM EST reply actions  

Jsacpes I hope you are right.

My bold prediction: Curtis Granderson – .290/.370/.520, 32 HR, 15 SB, 3 CS

He may even hit more HR’s. Anything is possible if he is coming from Detroit!

"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa."
-- manager Casey Stengel

by McDaniel on Feb 25, 2010 8:32 AM EST reply actions  

CYC wins all because

She said “Megatron-type force”

Anyone who is able to put Megatron in an article, prediction, caption, score sheet, stats, jersey, ect. – They win every time. GO New York Megatrons!!! No?

"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa."
-- manager Casey Stengel

by McDaniel on Feb 25, 2010 8:35 AM EST reply actions  

I think she meant Voltron?

Or am I the one mixing up his ’80s cartoon robots?

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Feb 25, 2010 9:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Voltron would be correct.

But both words are equal. There was this big study at Yale and they weighed out the amount of emotion over power times raw energy over metal state of mind divided by time travel. The result: Voltron = Megatron

IDK WTF I said

"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa."
-- manager Casey Stengel

by McDaniel on Feb 26, 2010 9:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Team Stats

The team’s stats will be down this season compared to last.
.280
865 runs a drop of 50 runs
228 HR down from 244
830 RBI down from 881
126 SB up from 111
Pitching remains close to last a season but dips a bit
4.33 ERA
1421 H
560 BB down from a 574
 1230 K
48 SV

by dustproduction on Feb 25, 2010 11:15 AM EST reply actions  

Defense

Yanks will figure out that speed, a few reliable defensive players (Jeter, ARod, Cervelli), 6 more that are good to excellent (CG, Gardner, and Winn/Hoffman in the OF), quality starts and lights out pitchers in the pen equals lots of wins. George starts clamoring that the Yanks need a new Yankee Stadium with a deeper outfield fence. Posada loses a step and actually runs backwards while grounding out to center. Girardi plays him too much ‘cuz of some sort of catcher thing, but the last straw is when a fastball down the middle somehow eludes him and the batter circles the bases on a strikeout before Posada can run down the passed ball. Wikipedia coins the term “Posada” and it will forever be used in baseball to describe a lack of footspeed. “Get that Posada off your back” “You look like your running in Posada-sand” "You’re slower than Posada in January." Yanks put him on DL from a mysterious illness, avoiding the need to cut him, and Jorge makes plans to hang ‘em up only to realize his shoes are too heavy to lift because they’re made out of lead. No way he’s on the post-season roster…Thanks Jorge, your fine career will be remembered!

by steelerwheeler on Feb 25, 2010 4:30 PM EST reply actions  

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