How will the schedule affect the 5th starter?
I have a feeling all this talk about who'll win the fifth starter spot will be for naught, as these 'problems' tend to solve themselves, whether by injury or ineffectiveness. What are the odds that a 38-year-old Andy Pettitte and 33-year-old A.J. Burnett stay healthy all year? (Yes, they did last year but that seems more like the exception.)
Anyway, assuming everyone is healthy, how will Girardi use the early off-days?
The Yanks open the season on April 4th, then have an off-day, then play two, then have another off-day (really, schedule-makers?), then play three, then have a third off-day (after just six games). They don't play four straight until their first homestand (beginning April 13th).
Assuming Girardi doesn't skip pitchers with all the off-days, here's how the early schedule looks:
|
April 4 Sabathia |
April 5 off-day |
April 6 Burnett |
April 7 Pettitte |
April 8 off-day |
April 9 Vazquez |
April 10 5th SP |
|
April 11 Sabathia |
April 12 off-day |
April 13 Burnett |
April 14 Pettitte |
April 15 Vazquez |
April 16 5th SP |
April 17 Sabathia |
|
April 18 Burnett |
April 19 off-day |
April 20 Pettitte |
April 21 Vazquez |
April 22 5th SP |
April 23 Sabathia |
April 24 Burnett |
Sabathia pitches four times (with extra rest between all his starts), and the fifth starter thrice. In fact, every starter will pitch on extra rest at least twice in the first three weeks.
Now here's the schedule using the off-days to skip starters:
|
April 4 Sabathia |
April 5 off-day |
April 6 Burnett |
April 7 Pettitte |
April 8 off-day |
April 9 Sabathia |
April 10 Vazquez |
|
April 11 Burnett |
April 12 off-day |
April 13 Pettitte |
April 14 Sabathia |
April 15 Vazquez |
April 16 Burnett |
April 17 5th SP |
|
April 18 Pettitte |
April 19 off-day |
April 20 Sabathia |
April 21 Burnett |
April 22 Vazquez |
April 23 Pettitte |
April 24 5th SP |
So Sabathia still goes four times, but all on normal rest, while the fifth starter goes only twice. Is keeping the first four starters on normal rest more valuable than giving Joba or Hughes regular work? After all the talk we heard last year about how Joba needed to 'have the reins taken off' and 'get into a routine,' is it right to start him just twice in the first three weeks (if he wins the spot)?
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Sabathia is a horse
and we are paying him to be horse, so my gut reaction was immediately, send him out every 5th day and let our best pitchers take up the most innings.
On the other hand, it might not be a bad idea to let Sabathia and AJ ease into the season. The Yankees have already shown concern for the high innings total by their top 4 starters. It might be better to get everyone going, give a little extra rest at the beginning of the season. All these off days in the first month means there are going to be long stretches without a break later on.
Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.
by Edwantsacracker on Feb 19, 2010 11:41 AM EST reply actions
I say use all 5 starters in the early going for two reasons:
1) Between Joba & Hughes, the Yankees figure to have a pretty good 5th starter, and
2) The four other starters are all over 30 and while none of them were abused last season, they were all at or near their career highs for innings pitched.
This is the reverse of the argument we had during the postseason about using starters on 3-days rest, but the answer is the same – it doesn’t matter.
There is no evidence, scientifically, medically, or physiologically, to suggest a starting pitcher needs exactly 4 days of rest between starts. That interval of time is largely the coincidental result of the decision most teams made 35 years ago to use a 5-man rotation.
Just like occasionally pitching on 3-days rest won’t cause anybody’s arm to fall off, occasionally pitching on 5-days rest won’t cause a professional who’s thrown thousands of pitches to lose their focus, balance, or timing.
Depends on the pitcher
If Joba Chamberlain wins the fifth starter spot (as I believe he should), then no. Let the pitchers go out after the other four have pitched. Joba has no innings limit anymore. The leash is off. Let him go out and pitch. There is no reason to skip his turns. And it would be good if CC, A.J., Andy, and Vasquez all had some rest in between starts. It could help keep them fresh later in the season. It might not make a difference at all. Either way, if Joba wins, leave it the way it should be.
However, if Hughes wins the fifth starter spot, then I would go with skipping him. He has a limit of probably around 140-150 innings (I know what his career high was, but that was back in 2006- the innings he threw last year should be looked at). I do NOT want another episode of what Joba was last year- late in the season and him going out and getting bombed every time he pitched. I would rather have had the Yankees limit Joba’s innings in the beginning of 2009, and then let him go all out and just pitch in the second half. I would prefer the same thing with Hughes. I wouldn’t want him struggling in the second half when the Yankees will be in the thick of a pennant race (and Joba’s struggles would have been suicide for them last year if they hadn’t already locked up the AL East early with the 4 Game sweep). So skip him as much as you can in the beginning without using spot starters, take him out of games early, they should do whatever they need to limit his innings in the first half without the need to use Gaudin/Mitre as spot starters, so he can be fresh for the second half. I wouldn’t worry about the other starters going every fifth day. Thats their job, isn’t it? Especially CC. He’s a horse. There’s really no need to worry about him getting hurt or getting gassed by the end of the year.
So if Joba wins, then let them all go out. If Hughes wins, skip some of his starts in the beginning.
Also, I have a question. Any particular reason the schedule makers like to skip a day between the opener and the rest of the series every year? I mean, it really happens every single season. Play the opener in the season, skip a day, and then play on. Why?
Throw in a little rain and snow...
…and we get more unwanted off days.
I wish we could continue to just show up and play for no reason. No umpires, no scorers. Just show up and have fun.
-- Alex Rodriguez
Takin' it easy
After an average of 240+ inninIgs last year (including the play-offs) for CC, AJ, and aging Pettite I do think it would be a good idea to ease into the season with the five-man intact. Plus, it allows either Hughes, who finished in the pen, or Joba, who was under the bizzare Joba rules to slowly get used to starting regularly again. I don’t like these strange rules they have for these two, I like the old school philosphy of building a pitchers arm strength in the minors and then using him as a long reliever after reaching the bigs. I think we should let Hughes pitch as long as possible this year if he starts, but thats not going to happen. I think Joba got bombed not because of overwork (come on) but because of the fluctuating rules, its kind of hard to develop rythme with all that going on. Quit babying these guys Yanks, its going to wreck ’em! There might not be physical evidence to suggest a pitcher can throw every three days, but there sure is statistical evidence. We got lucky in playoffs last year with our starters, plus CC is a horse and Pettite is not unaccustomed to it. AJ looked a little burned out that last start. Five in ’10 seems like a good idea.
by SteveBalboniHOF on Feb 19, 2010 12:12 PM EST reply actions
be consistant
Girardi should pick a starter and stick to his guns. Stay consistant with all 5 starters. Start the season knowing who your 5 starters are, and stick to it. If Joba is your guy, keep him as a starter, rather than baby him and go back and forth with the decision. Reguardless of Joe’s decision, I just want to see the same guy on the hill every 5th day as long as they arent injured or not being productive.
I don’t think it would hurt to start easy on all the guys, find a way to skip each starter once in the rotation to give them some extra rest and work the other of Hughes/Joba into the rotation.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

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