Robbie's 2009 w/RISP
by Wraithpk on Feb 18, 2010 4:47 PM EST
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We call know about Robbie's struggles with runners on base last year. His batting average last year with RISP was a ridiculous .207. Fangraph's new splits feature sheds some more light on what happened. In low leverage situations, Cano's wRC+ was 148, which is superstar type production. In medium leverage, it was 121, which is still All-Star level. In high leverage situations, though, it was a paltry 52, which is monumentally atrocious.
What could possibly cause such horrible numbers from a guy who is such a great hitter? Some of his batting data is quite telling. First, his BABIP for the different leverage situations was .378/.274/.250. Is this just luck? For his career, his BABIP split has been .342/.302/.289. It's clear that there is some inherent difference in Robbie's approach at the plate when he's under more pressure, and last year he either exaggerated this difference further, or got unlucky in general.
Looking at his batted balls enhances the story.
|
|
Line Drive |
Ground Ball |
Fly Ball |
Popup |
GB/FB |
HR/FB |
BABIP |
xBABIP |
BABIP-xBABIP |
wRC+ |
|
Low leverage (2009) |
21.4 |
48.4 |
30.2 |
5.8 |
1.6 |
11.6 |
.378 |
.304 |
.074 |
148 |
|
Low leverage (career) |
20 |
48.3 |
31.7 |
6.5 |
1.52 |
10.4 |
.342 |
.303 |
.039 |
126 |
|
Medium leverage (2009) |
18.8 |
47.1 |
34.2 |
8.5 |
1.38 |
17.1 |
.274 |
.296 |
-.022 |
121 |
|
Medium leverage (career) |
18.9 |
51.4 |
29.7 |
9.3 |
1.73 |
12.9 |
.302 |
.299 |
.003 |
110 |
|
High leverage (2009) |
17.3 |
34.6 |
48.1 |
0 |
.72 |
4.0 |
.250 |
.294 |
-.044 |
52 |
|
High leverage (career) |
17.7 |
46.8 |
35.5 |
9.0 |
1.32 |
6.4 |
.289 |
.294 |
-.005 |
78 |
In low pressure situations, Cano has consistently outperformed his xBABIP. Certain players are capable of doing that: players with great speed, and players who are very good at hitting the ball to all fields. Cano's problems seem to be 2-fold: first, it appears he was unlucky to a degree last year in pressure situations. Secondly, he does seem to change his approach at the plate in general. His line drive rate drops, and his flyballs seem to raise. This was especially pronounced last year, where his flyball rate in high pressure situations was 13% higher than his career average.
Here are the facts so far:
1. Cano hits more flyballs under pressure
2. Cano's BABIP on flyballs is just .168 on his career, but was a career high .195 last year.
3. Cano's wRC+ on flyballs is actually very good at 136 for his career, and a career high 176 last year.
4. 1 combined with 3 should tell us that he actually hits better under pressure, but...
5. Cano's HR/FB rate in high leverage is about half that of his low and medium leverage rates for his career, and was about 3.5x lower in 2009.
Conclusions: Cano, in general, tries to hit more homeruns when he's in high pressure situations and looks to get under balls, but this causes him to get too far under balls and just flyout instead of hitting a homerun. This seems to be true in general for him, but it was very exaggerated last year. To fix this, he needs to go up looking to hit a line-drive instead of a homerun. This reminds me of after game 2 of the ALDS when A-Rod hit that big HR to tie the game off Joe Nathan. The reporter asked him something like, "Were you thinking homerun when you went up to the plate?" And A-Rod said, "You can't ever think that. I was just thinking wait for a good pitch and try to drive it somewhere." This seems to be the step in maturity that Robbie needs to make in order to fix his RISP problems.
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Great work dude
and I totally agree with all of your conclusions.
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
Indeed,
similar to how Swisher’s IFFB% was way higher last year at home when he batted left handed. I think the idea in Swish’s head was that he could and should be able to hit the ball over the short porch in right.
Obviously, with Cano it’s in a different context. The point is the same though, both players seemed to be looking for a specific outcome rather than keeping with the good ole cliche “not trying to do too much.”
Very nice
If you’re right that it’s mental, it makes me image the kind of season he robbed himself of.
It seems, though, that this argument is based on the assumption that his ‘natural’ line would be his low leverage line. I’d like to see what % of each pitch type Robbie sees in low, mid and high leverage spots. I suspect he sees more fastballs in low leverage.
Your info from Fangraphs?
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
To be honest...
I’ve been working on something over the past few weeks about Cano too that I may or may not get around to posting.
I’m convinced that Cano may truly be the most unorthodox, unusual hitter in all of baseball today. The fact that he struggles in certain split situations (1st half vs. 2nd half, RISP vs. bases empty) is far less surprising than the fact the he’s a productive hitter in the first place.
Cano rarely walks and rarely strikes out. Last season, even with a fairly high home run total, more than 80% of his at-bats ended with the ball being put into play. That’s highly, highly unusual. Most hitters who put the ball in play that much are either fast runners who can work bunt hits and infield singles (Ichiro), or terrible hitters (Yuniesky Betancourt).
A hitter like A-Rod or Mark Teixeira, who walks a fairly high percentage of the time, is probably more likely to have more consistent splits. A walk always produces the same, fixed outcome – the hitter winds up on first base – and is not subject to the ball taking an unlucky bounce and so forth. On the other hand, a hitter like Cano who almost always puts the ball in play could have a much higher variance in his splits due to the depth of the infielders or outfielders that will vary depending on the baserunners.
That’s my theory, at least, and I’m trying to see if I can find data to back it up.
I can think of a few other hitters
Who are similar to Cano in this aspect. Nomar Garciaparra in his prime was one – Don Mattingly in his prime was another. You’re right though it’s hard to think of many others.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Feb 19, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
If Cano can get over this mental hump, he needs to backup A-Rod for years to come
It’s gonna be fun folks.
Tex-A-Rod-Cano = deadly
Has anybody thought about how he'll be without his buddy Melky?
better (more focused), worse?
Section 203 Row 15 Seat 1
Manically depressed,
and most likely itching to put a video of him with a porn star up on Youtube.
Seriously though, that will be interesting to see. The two of them always kept each other loose, but perhaps too lose. Cano has been known to be kind of lackadaisical sometimes.
by Leviticus6688 on Feb 21, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
I think this is part of the reason...
that Melky is no longer with us. I have a feeling that if he’d wanted to, Cashman could have worked the Vazquez deal to not include Melky, but I think he liked the idea of Cano goofing around less. He may want to make Cano realize “hey if I don’t prepare for every season the way I did for 2009, I could be out, too.”
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Feb 25, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
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