Saturday News: The Tools of Ignorance
by jscape2000 on Feb 13, 2010 7:38 AM EST
in New York Yankees News
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PrintWith a little over 4 days until spring training, all is quiet on the Yankees' front.
Nick Johnson is getting his work in with Kevin Long. Long has proven to be a competent hitting coach, helping correct errors but not trying to fix what's not broken (remember when they wanted Jeter to pull the ball more?).
The boys over at NoMaas put together the ideal Sabermetric Yankee lineup, using Tom Tango's analysis from The Book and the Yanks' wOBP platoon splits.
vs. LHPs: Jeter Teix Swisher ARod Johnson Posada Cano Granderson Gardner
vs. RHPs: Johnson Teix Granderson ARod Posada Jeter Cano Swisher Gardner
Cano Granderson Gardner (all lefties) seems like a matchup mistake in any lineup, but especially against a lefty starter.
It's hard for me not to like the lineup against RHP, especially if we expect Granderson's home run numbers to jump in NYS. I know there's no speedy guy at the top of the lineup, but I've always thought that was overrated anyway- especially with the way our 3-4 hitters hit doubles and homers. Stealing a base is more important when the guy at the plate is more likely to single than hit for extra bases.
Fangraphs examines the free agent waiting game as a money making tool. Waiting is less likely to bring in big bucks than in the boom years when Boras perfected the strategy. Hank Blalock, Carlos Delgado, Normar Garciaparra, Gary Sheffield, Jermaine Dye, and (of course) Johnny Damon are former stars still searching for work. All except Damon had poor years last year.
Any one you'd like to bring in to compete for a bench role? I'd be happy to have a Chili Davis quality hitter on the bench, again.
With the retirement of Glavine and Thomas, the Hall of Fame ballot for 2014 got down right crowded. Since Thomas and Glavine didn't play in 2009, they'll join Greg Maddux and Jeff Kent as first-timers on that ballot. If all four got in on the first ballot (they should), it would be the largest class of first time inductees since the opening class.
My guess: the voters will give the middle finger to Thomas as punishment for doing as the manager told him and not hurting his team in the field.
Mike Mussina will also be in that class, and while I think he's a HoFer, I wonder if that will hurt his chances of ever being inducted.
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I understand what the lineup is supposed to do from
a statistical standpoint, but I disagree with it. The lineup against LHP is probably closer to something the Yankees would actually use. I just don’t think putting your best hitters in the 2-4 hole make sense in a baseball way. I understand why it makes sense in a vacuum.
But late in a game, or even any time in a game, if I were a pitcher I would rather pitch to Nick Swisher than Tex.
Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.
by Edwantsacracker on Feb 13, 2010 9:15 AM EST reply actions
I to have an ignorant tool.
I’m constantly being told to put it away.
I wish I were an Oscar Myer wiener.
by cashman bashman on Feb 13, 2010 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
Random Question
Does anyone know what Spring Training games will be on YES, if any? The schedule doesn’t say.
What?
The boys over at NoMaas put together the ideal Sabermetric Yankee lineup, using Tom Tango’s analysis from The Book and the Yanks’ wOBP platoon splits
vs. LHPs: Jeter Teix Swisher ARod Johnson Posada Cano Granderson Gardner
vs. RHPs: Johnson Teix Granderson ARod Posada Jeter Cano Swisher Gardner
This is a joke right, is it April Fool’s day already? If not, give them some more koolaid!
Winn?
Does this lineup assume Winn never plays.
by dustproduction on Feb 15, 2010 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
Damon To Lead Off
……just not for the Yankee this year. LOL
Thanks Scott!
by dustproduction on Feb 15, 2010 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
seriously that is an ugly lineup
why on earth would you EVER use Swisher as protection for Tex?
illogical and retarded.
that’s what that lineup is.
Weird lineup and Jermaine Dye
I think the problem with a lot of the advanced statistic-based baseball analysis is that if the results defy common sense, a lot of theorists are too quick to say “common sense must be wrong” instead of thinking there must be an issue with the formula. Without even getting into all of the issues with those lineups, not batting Tex and A-Rod back-to-back would be doing opposing pitchers a huge favor late in games.
As for the remaining free agents, if Jermaine Dye could be had for 1.5 mil or so I think we should bring him in. He’s better than Marcus Thames.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Feb 13, 2010 9:55 AM EST reply actions
I think Frank Thomas will get in first ballot. He’s one of the greatest hitters of all time, managing a career 158 wRC+. If he’s not first ballot, it will be a travesty.
Also, I don’t really know about that lineup. The way I’ve always seen it is:
1. Should be a player with good OBP and preferably good speed and decent power.
2. Should be your best OBP player, besides the players that go in 3 and 4 spot.
3. Should be your best overall hitter.
4. Should be your hitter with the most power, unless that happens to be the 3 hitter.
5. Should be a hitter with good power
6, 7, 8. Your lesser quality hitters, preferably staggered L-R-L or R-L-R
9. Your worst all around hitter.
Agreed on Frank
I think there are some idiot writers who won’t vote for Frank Thomas because he played more DH than 1b, but during his prime in the 90’s he was basically full-time 1bman. The numbers he put up from 1992-2000 are simply obscene and he had a couple of big years after that as well. I think Maddux, Glavine and Thomas will get in next year and Moose and Kent will not. Kent will probably get in eventually in a year when there’s less competition. I’m not sure about Moose.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Feb 13, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Kent
is a first ballot HOF’er. His prickly personality with the writers may be the only thing that keeps that from happening.
Wasn't Just the Writers
By most accounts I’ve read, his teammates weren’t crazy about him either. Not that he isn’t a HoF’er – goodness knows there are a lot of horse’s asses in there already. It’s not as much of a drawback in baseball as it is in other occupations.
Don't tell that to Pete Rose....
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
I don't even think his personality blocks him
Some of his stats suggest he was the best offensive 2nd basemen ever.He’s a dick but his stats say it all.
I wish I were an Oscar Myer wiener.
by cashman bashman on Feb 13, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
Agree on Frank as well.
That is a loaded ballot. My guess is that Maddux, Glavine, and The Big Hurt go in right away and Kent and Moose joint them within a few years.
Wake Up And Smell The New Dynasty, Yankee Faithful!
Great post, Jscape. I too can’t believe all this huffing and hyperventilating over Fangraphs and the need for more speed at the top of the lineup. Derek did just fine with all the multi-base hits and dingers behind him, and Johnson will only help by moving him further along the basepaths and setting up even more rbi plates for Arod and Tex to feast on.
The fact is Damon is done like dinner, and I’m getting fed up with all the ill-informed Yankee bandwagon jumpers whining and crying here and elsewhere about our Matsui/Damon geezer dump.
The hard reality and bottom line gut check is this: The Bombers jettisoned a cripple (Matsui) and an overrated paycheck player who throws like a girl (Damon) and traded in their bloated paychecks for a healthy young speedy All-Star stud with a bigger bat than either of them who’s all upside (Granderson), a #2 hitter whose 2009 on-base percentage was only topped by the NL and AL MVPs (Johnson) and a #4 starting pitcher who came in 4th in NL Cy Young voting last year (Vazquez), along with some very helpful support players that give Joe G and Cash lineup options and roster flexibility down the stretch.
The myth that Damon is still any kind of speedster is pure fiction perpetuated by casual fans, out of town writers who didn’t watch him play every day and Boras the Liar, his agent. Gardner had to cover left center all season for him. He only had 12 steals all last season — just two more than Melky who batted at the bottom of the order — and his infamous two-bag theft in the Series was the result of a double error; first a bad throw from the catcher and then the pitcher’s failure to cover third with the shift on. (His replacement Grandy had 30 HRS and 20 SBs last year anyway, btw)
Without the sweet right-field porch in the new Yankee Stadium and Arod and Tex protecting them in the batting order, neither Johnny Spoiled Rotten nor Hideki are going to see another season in MLB after this one, let alone another post-season. And their replacements will slot into their lineup spots just fine.
For even more Yankee fun, check out "Joe’s Job – The Ballad of Terry Francona" at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvVZQnELQ9s
It’s a must-see for Yankee and BoSucks fans alike! Go Yankees! 28 in 2010!!!
by nyyankeefanforever on Feb 13, 2010 3:59 PM EST reply actions
..
I cant help but notice jeter batting 6th in the projected rhp lineup? I strongly disagree
by Fluke on Feb 13, 2010 5:56 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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