Only 3 teams with over 90 wins…all in the AL East???

I think simulating MLB The Show might be more accurate. There has to be better things to post about.

They put the Nats in last place, where they belong. I don’t agree with the D-Backs winning the NL West, or the Rangers in the AL West. The Angels got worse, Oakland didn’t do much, and the Rangers just added an aging Guerrero (don’t recall if they signed anyone else). The Mariners added Lee, Figgins, and as crazy as he is, Milton Bradley is a great hitter. I don’t know if they’ll win the division, but saying they will win fewer games than last year when they clearly got a lot better and everyone else in their division is either the same or worse is just dumb.

I thought PECOTA was a one-time projection; what was originally projected was what their projection was.

Oops.

we already know exactly what’s going to happen.

Someone find HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1’s email address and send this to him. I feel like I could use a good anti-simulator rant.

There are a ton of FA out there that will make a difference.

It looks more like I would pick it now, even though I still don’t like the way they played the NL West out. The Dodgers might not win, but they won’t be that far back. The rest looks just like it should.

Two things go into winning games: talent and luck. Projections address the talent part, but you just can’t predict luck. And luck’s the thing that causes the standings to spread out over 162 games.

Same for leader boards. Predicting Pujols to hit 38 HRs and everyone else below him doesn’t mean the system thinks nobody will hit 40 HRs. Somebody will, with Pujols having the best shot. But if you were to make individual bets about under/over 40 HRs, you’d take the under for every player (if that’s what the “conservative” projections say). Again, luck and uncertainty cause the HR lead board to spread out compared to pre-season projections. But to project it to be as wide as the actual finish makes the projections less accurate overall.