Lots to Look Forward to in 2011
by nyyrocks29 on Dec 31, 2010 7:18 PM EST
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Print2010 is almost over. Now, it wasn't a bad baseball season for the Yankees. They won 95 games in an intense AL East battle with the Tampa Bay Rays, and then came within two games of the World Series. They had a few walk off wins, some special moments, and got their annual beating of Jonathan Papelbon early in the season. Alex Rodriguez made history with his 600th home run and continues to climb the home run list and build his legacy as one of the greatest offensive threats ever to play the game. And perhaps best of all, Robinson Cano and Phil Hughes had breakout seasons and should continue to improve as the years go on.
However, 2010 is coming to a close, and the calender is about to turn back to January. It's a day closer to baseball season for Yankees fans. As usual, people question the Yankees chances, and perhaps even more so this offseason as the Yankees lost out on Cliff Lee and did not have really any major acquisitions. But there's still a lot to look forward to going into next season. Here's the top five things I'm looking forward to with regards to the New York Yankees upcoming 2011 season.
1. Young Kids in the Starting Rotation
It may turn out that losing out on Cliff Lee may be the best thing to happen to the Yankees in a very very long time. They don't have to deal with giving 20 million a year to a pitcher who will throw out his back in 3 years, and now actually have money left over to go after a big fish later on, or as a step to lose payroll in the future. Also, no Lee means the Yankees are going to give at least one rotation spot to a young rookie from the farm system. I'm excited about this. It means a battle in spring training for at least one spot, maybe two if Andy doesn't return. We may get to see young homegrown pitchers like Ivan Nova, David Phelps, and perhaps even Andrew Brackman or one of the Killer Bs in the rotation this year. I look forward to seeing young starting pitchers grow out of the farm system and help the big league club.
2. The Emergence of Jesus Montero
Jesus Montero is one of the best prospects in the league. He's projected to have the offensive talent to be a number three hitter on a championship team, and so long as he isn't traded he's going to be the Yankees future catcher. Whether he starts the year behind the plate, gets called up during the year because Russell Martin stinks, or because Russell Martin gets hurt, we're going to see Montero next year. If he hits anywhere close to how he did in the second half of last year in AAA, he'll be up by June. I really want to see this kid hit in the majors. If he hits like he's projected, he could be the Yankees answer to Adrian Gonzalez in the future. Difference is, Montero is younger, plays a more premium position, and isn't going to cost over 20 million a year for a while.
3. Rebound Seasons
I'm sick and tired of people doubting A.J. Burnett, doubting Derek Jeter, doubting A-Rod, and any of those guys who had off seasons in 2010. I'm sure all of them are incredibly motivated to improve in 2011. Burnett is going to be working with Rothschild before spring training even starts, and I think the new pitching coach is going to be good for him. I think Jeter should revert to form, and as long as A-Rod is healthy I think one more run at the MVP isn't out of the question. Is it likely? No. Much more likely is another 30 HR and 100 RBI season. But people are even questioning if he can still do that. I'm optimistic with them as well as guys like Posada and Teixeira who also had off years, and I'm looking forward to them having a big role in next years run. Will they all rebound? Maybe, maybe not. But they all have the ability to and I look forward to them getting a new season.
4. Continued Improvement of Robinson Cano
Cano emerged as an MVP Candidate last year. He's one of the best second baseman in the league, right up there with Utley and miles ahead of Pedroia. He's entering his prime, and he's a good bet for 30 HR, 100 RBI, a .320+ BA and Gold Glove defense at second base. He's a Yankee prospect that came up through the organization, earned himself a starting role, has gone through growing pains and is becoming a star right before our eyes. I think he should hit third next year with Teixeira fifth. He's earned that. He's becoming one of my favorite players to watch and I'm excited to see him play again.
5. One Last Run for the Core Four
This is one of the biggest reasons I want Andy Pettitte back, and I really hope he returns. He never got a proper sendoff, first of all. He would be a great addition to the rotation. And most of all, I want him to make one last run with the other members of the Core Four. Mariano Rivera is probably retiring after 2012 and Posada probably after next season. Andy is definitely gone after 2011. This upcoming season (should Andy return) will be the last opportunity for the Core Four that have been together for so many years to win one last ring together. Even if Andy doesn't come back I'm still looking forward to one more for Jorge, and overall just another ring for anybody on the Yankees. Bottom line is I'm looking forward to the Yankees getting back on the field for another run at Championship #28.
Thats the top five for me. I want to ask, what is everyone else looking forward to on the Yankees next season?
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I'd really like
Pettitte to come back for about the same reason. First of all, we need him. But I would really like him to come back and receive a proper farewell in his final season. He’s earned it and deserves it.
There's always next year
yup
I really hope he comes back.
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
Weren't you the one that told me the Yankees don't owe anyone a proper farewell?
March 31st can't come soon enough.
by Chris McKeown on Jan 1, 2011 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
No
You know I’m not one of the “win only and screw you if you haven’t hit for me lately” guys. Bernie was treated badly and Andy should let us fans say “adios”.
There's always next year
Didn't mean to say that you were
I can’t remember who it was… let me look back at my fanpost to check. I’m agreed with you 100% though
March 31st can't come soon enough.
by Chris McKeown on Jan 2, 2011 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
Did Cashman purposefully leave a spot for Andy?
After losing out on Lee (Thank God) it was very uncharacteristic of the Yankees to not get someone else. I know the pickins were slim, but there were (and are) options. Wouldn’t be at all surprised if Cashman and Petite have a deal in the works. This gives me hope.
Rothschild?
Why is everyone so high on Rothschild? Last time I checked the Cub’s pitching was nothing to write home about. Don’t get me wrong. I want to share your optimism.
Maybe he just wasn't a good fit there
I don’t know. But he’s been in the league a while and knows how to work with strikeout pitchers. Thats a match with AJ so I hope it works out well.
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
Cano isn't even close to Utley.
Utley is a +10 to +15 fielder at 2B.
Cano is a -2.5 to +2.5 fielder.
Utley has five 6+ WAR seasons and it would have been six if he weren’t injured this year. Cano has one 6+ WAR season.
Cano is a great player, don’t get me wrong, but Utley is on a different level, especially when you regress them both. Utley is both better and has a much longer track record of success.
Cano is entering his prime
as far as his defense goes, you need to watch Cano everyday to know how good he is defensively. He never bobbles the ball, has a very strong arm, and turns a DP as good as anyone. He’s great on those pop flies behind 2B and he’s incredibly smooth. I don’t trust any of the UZR stuff or whatever stats say that Cano is a bad fielder. They say that Tex is a bad fielder too. I watch these guys play every day, and I can tell you that they are two of the best defenders in the game at their positions.
You do make a point by saying that Utley has a longer track record of success, but thats what I mean when I say I look forward to Robbie continuing to go. Last year he established himself and had just as good a year as some of Utley’s best. He’s still young and I hope he keeps doing that.
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
WAR graphs comparing Cano, Pedroia, and Utley: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=8370&playerid3=3269&playerid4=1679&playerid5=
Cano’s best season, this one, was about as good as Utley’s 5th best season. Cano is a much better comp to Pedroia than to Utley in terms of value. They’re both accrued equal amounts of career WAR, though Pedroia rose faster.
And I’ve talked about the Cano defense thing endlessly here. He has good hands, has very consistent and smooth fielding, but he gives back most of that value because of his sub-par range, resulting in about an average fielder. You say that you watch Cano play every day, but I watch Pedroia play every day, and almost every time I see Cano I notice how many balls he helplessly watches go by that I’m accustomed to Pedroia getting to and making a play on. I’ve noticed this since before I even knew what UZR meant.
This isn’t me blindly following metrics. It’s a case of the metrics agreeing with what my eyes see. I see Cano as a good fielder with sub-par range. That’s exactly what UZR tells me, that he’s decent with the double play and doesn’t commit very many errors, but that his range just isn’t very good.
Bad place to put the link.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?
playerid2=8370&playerid3=3269&playerid4=1679&playerid5=
Cano being smooth and graceful and having a strong arm makes us overlook his lack of range to the 1st base side. It’s not BS and it’s got nothing to do with “metrics.”
Still say BS
But regardless, that strong arm makes up for a supposed lack of range, thus throwing out baserunners that many a second baseman would not. Try looking at other aspects of defense. My “BS” was in response to anybody trying to tell me the garden gnome is anywhere near the talent Cano is. BS.
There's always next year
At 3B a strong arm will make up for range, and maybe at SS, but at 2B range is the most important factors
And Pedroia is a true plus fielder. He has probably averageish hands and an average arm, but his phenomenal range makes up for it. As I’ve said before, going from watching Pedroia every day to watching Cano (or most other 2B), it’s very easy to see the balls go by that you’re accustomed to seeing Pedroia at least make an attempt at a play on.
Also, if you look at WAR, Pedroia and Cano have had pretty similar values. Pedroia is younger, and if he hadn’t been injured this year he would have had his third 5+ WAR year in a row, while this year was Cano’s first 5+ WAR year. Pedroia has accumulated 17.9 WAR in 556 games, while Cano has 18.7 WAR in 894 games. Pedroia gains more of his value from his defense, while Cano has a better bat.
Joba to teh rotaeshun
Sign Ozwalt & Bergman for the bench
Rothschild hiding Girardi’s binderz during games
I don't think 1 is something to look foward to.
Nova hasn’t shown much but also isn’t expected to from the numerous scouting reports on him. His delivery has no deception and that’ll be hard for him.
If Brackman is in the rotation before July something bad happened and if the other B’s are in the rotation at any point something really really bad happened.
I'm not really looking forward to any of the 5 things mentioned here.
1. Young Kids in the Starting Rotation = Young kids learning to pitch and ghetting hit;
2. The Emergence of Jesus Montero = I think he’s trade bait for a starting pitcher, but maybe I’m wrong.
3. Rebound Seasons. None of these players will rebound to their previous peak season, or anything near it.
4. Continued Improvement of Robinson Cano. How much better can he get? Again, maybe I’m wrong, and he could put up a line of .325, 35 homers, 120 rbi with accompanying OBP and SLG%, but I wouldn’t want to have to bet money on it.
5. One Last Run for the Core Four. One of the worst mistakes in sports is not realizing when the core of a great team isn’t that great anymore. Look at most dynastties and you’ll see players releases or retiring from the team before their dimished performances weigh it down. Of the Core 4, (assuming Pettitte comes back) I don’t expect any of them to have an injury- free season, and all 4 to have some overall drop-off, varying in severity.
In 2010, the Red Sox bit the bullet with a rebuilding year, the Yankees are going to have to do the same.
by designatedquitter on Jan 3, 2011 2:47 PM EST reply actions
If he's trade bait.
Then this offense in 3 years will be lacking a power bat. They need Jesus and thankfully Cash knows this.
And the 2010 plans for the Red Sox was never to rebuild.
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
Thats a lot of pessimism lol
I’m optimistic about next year. Montero isn’t going anywhere- there’s no pitcher on the market worth trading for. Cash knows he’s the future at the catching position.
I don’t understand the pessimism about the rebound seasons. I’m not expecting A-Rod to have another 2007 season and AJ to repeat 2008. I’m not expecting MVP and Cy Young campaigns. But the expectation for AJ to repeat last year or for A-Rod to hit 20 home runs like some people think is going to happen, in my mind is laughable. But expecting Jeter to hit .300 again, A-Rod to stay healthy and play well or AJ to repeat 2009 isn’t out of the question.
You may not like it, but I look forward to seeing the young kids like Nova or Phelps getting a shot. I think they could do well. I do NOT mean Sergio Mitre.
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
Yea, 2010 was never a rebuilding year.
Without the crazy amount of injuries, it would have been an amazing 3-team race for the AL East. Between Pedroia/Youkilis/Beckett/VMart, there was easily another 6-7 wins in there. That would have been exciting.
Also, I agree about Cano. The vast majority of the time, breakout MVP seasons are followed by regression. I think Cano’s a great player, but I wouldn’t bet on him having another 6+ WAR season (though I wouldn’t be entirely surprised by it). I’d project 5 or so WAR.
The only difference between Cano’s 2010 and Cano’s 2009 was some extra walks and better defense. The AVG and SLG were almost identical. He walked more because of IBBs and getting pitched around by batting 5th in the lineup and his defense has improved every year.
Cano’s 2010 was only a “breakout” year to people who weren’t paying attention. He really is this good and he’s going to keep being this good.
people think it was a breakout season because he had a .370 BA for a couple months
So I was sitting on the couch, watching Brief Encounter...
by Brian5517209 on Jan 3, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
and im really excited about the walks, Robbie is turning into a complete hitter
So I was sitting on the couch, watching Brief Encounter...
by Brian5517209 on Jan 3, 2011 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
I do think he's a great player, and I've said that before.
Projecting someone as a 5 WAR player is not a bad thing by any means. Over 2007-2010, only 11 players averaged 5+ WAR. They were Pujols, Utley, Holliday, HanRam, Wright, ARod, Mauer, Zimmerman, Cabrera, Chipper Jones, and Teixeira. That’s a pretty elite list, and I’m pretty sure Cano would be happy to be projected along the lines of those players.
If you’re going to project him as a true talent 6+ WAR player, then there’s only 4 players who managed that over 2007-2010: Pujols, Utley, Holliday, and Hanley. Cano is good, but he isn’t that good.
The fact is that true talent 6+ WAR players are extremely rare. Even though every year there are going to be quite a few 6+ WAR players, most of them got there by playing above their true talent and will regress. There are very few players I would project as 6+ WAR players. Pujols, Utley, with borderline cases for Longoria, Zimmerman, and maybe 1-2 others.
If it makes anyone feel better, I'm excited about 2012.
by designatedquitter on Jan 4, 2011 2:20 PM EST reply actions
Rec
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
at this point i dont know if the Yankees will get to 90 wins
but Cashman has some time left…sort of
CRAWWL MEAT!!
it's the same team as last year
you know, the one that won 95 games? Pettitte will be a big loss if he retires, but chances are Nova is better than Vazquez and that Burnett rebounds so that cancels it out a little bit.
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
Please come back Andy!
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