The real bad new about failing to get Lee
by Cbeck3 on Dec 14, 2010 3:23 PM EST
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I spent some time looking at the numbers in the Cliff Lee pursuit. In my opinion the Yankee offer was not the "knockout" type of offer you cannot refuse. I can make the arguement that the offers where close enough to each other to let the decision be made on intangibles.
We lost on intangibles. Leaving the decision to be made on intangibles is courting disaster. We should have bid more and we failed to.
So, there are 3 possible scenarios. 1) The Yanks didn't think we needed Lee as much as Pinstripe Alley thought we needed him. 2) Cashman didn't really have the money available to make that "KO" offer. This could be because of a budget number from ownership or a self imposed idea of some sort. 3) Cashman misjudged the other offers and misjudged the negotiation. He said "final answer" too soon.
I think the likely answer is a combination of 2 and 3. What that means to us is that the days of dominance are behind us. These are no longer George Steinbrenner's big spending Yankees. They have been holding the Yankee payroll down as others, Boston LA Philly etc, creep closer to us in total dollars.
Is it true the Yankees are prepared to be OK with competing? Is it true we no longer mean to dominate? Will we be OK with a WS every decade or so? It looks to me like we will need to be OK with that unless our inexperienced owners get a lot looser with the FA budget. We won't get the results we want bidding "market price plus one dollar.
With the Phils willing the go 5 yrs at $24MM per year we would have had to go $29 or $30 MM per to get to the "How can you turn that down?" level. I bet 5 years $150MM would have done it. Or 7 at $203MM? Don't you think George would have done it?
I know this is the kind of offer the haters hate us for. Face it, they'll hate us anyway, why not get our man. Paying big for Arod did upset our relationship with Jeter. Not every player is as good a team player as Jeter. I guess I'm willing to deal with those problems.
We needed to blow the others away for Lee, just like we did for CC. The real bad news is that we didn't. We do not know if we could have. We only know we didn't.
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The difference in now and when George was around is we actually have a farm system. With all of the talent, we could certainly have the second coming of Jeter-Posada-Pettitte-Rivera tandem. The talent is there, it’s just whether it will pan out or not.
If we had no farm, then i’d be concerned. But i’m actually excited to see what these kids can do.
Section 203 Row 15 Seat 1
I really loved George as a GM
but when he was in charge, the Yankees were filled with over-payed aging stars. When he was banned from baseball the Yankees kept the core of the 90’s dynasty instead of trading them away. He came back, enjoyed the success, and we were filled with aging stars again through the 00’s. As he got older he turned the team over to Cashman, who got us a WS. He was a great owner but not the best evaluator of talent.
We would have no farm but most likely Lee and a few other contracts that would haunt us in 3-4 years. Right now we don’t have the best team in baseball but we got 5-6 guys with really high upside, and even if a few of them come through it would be amazing.
by Monotonousblob on Dec 14, 2010 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
How about that was as much of a crazy offer they wanted to risk. How much more should they have thrwn at him, 8 years 29 million a year? I don’t see it as a failure not getting Lee. 7 years is to long with the contracts this team is already on the hook for.
In an Ideal world I would have all ten fingers on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
Those 3 possible scenarios
are 100% Yankees centric and most likely false. Cashman made an offer as much or more then anyone else. What else can he do aside from tell him all about NY and yadda yadda?
Most likely it was 4) Lee wanted to pitch in Philly where he loved it so much and never wanted to be traded from when he was there the last time. Maybe he left some money on the table, but its not like he’s going broke any time soon.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
IMO
the offer was not good enough to get it done.
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
"Lost on intangibles"???
The Yankees’ offer included the most money and guaranteed years. Your three assumptions are incorrect. I can’t even read the rest of your post.
Yankees conract was
the most in overall value, and in years, but Phillies contract was above and beyond our offer in dollars per year.
What is so complicated about that?
Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.
by Edwantsacracker on Dec 14, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Lee would’ve signed with the Rangers if they had offered seven years. The Phillies positioned themselves well and swooped in at the last moment. This clearly wasn’t just about the money.
by Scooby Snacks on Dec 14, 2010 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
Five years for 120 MM. is $24,000,000 per year
That is about as good as any of the other offers.
Five at 24 per year is better in my eye than 6 at 23 per. The money was pretty close, so the choice was made on other things.
Result, Philly has a new lefty.
I don’t buy there was no way to change that.
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
or cashaman realizes that our core is getting old
and soon just about all of our players are gonna be past their prime soon. we have over a 200 million $ payroll, we are not out of contention yet. maybe the plan is to keep compete while not mortgaging the future, (which is what paying a 39 year old pitcher $29 million would be) maybe we sit back, try to compete this year, and keep growing and developing young talent. that way we wont be a team dependent on FA.
עם ישראל חי
Do dollars equal dominance?
I reject your reality and substitute my own. I’m going to put the IP by the Yanks’ top 4 starters next to the payroll as a percentage of the #2 team.
The ‘96 Yankees’ payroll was 107% of the 2nd place team. 669IP, Champs
’97 108% 798IP WC, ALDS
’98 2nd place, 90% of 1st 803IP Champs
’99 108% 785IP Champs
’00 103% 758IP Champs
’01 102% 768IP WS
’02 117% 747IP ALDS
’03 130% 846IP WS
’04 145% 670IP ALCS
’05 168% 620IP ALDS
’06 162% 760IP ALDS
’07 132% 665IP WC, ALDS
’08 152% 612IP
’09 135% 788IP Champ
’10 127% 756IP WC, ALCS
Those numbers hardly suggest to me that the rest of the league has caught up, but that the Yankees’ resources have been unsuccessfully distributed.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
The league has started catching up the past few years. As you can see it has slowly declined from 152% in 08 to 135% in 09 to 127% in 10 and is likely to come closer in 11 with as much money as Boston has dished out this year.
Which is fine
The Yanks went to the WS 5 of 6 years without topping 108%.
There are 5 SP spots and 9 batters.
Better to have 5 great and 9 mediocre than 5 mediocre and 9 great.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I wasn’t arguing that point. I was just saying that some of the higher payroll teams are slowly creeping up on us in terms of payroll. But as it is now I don’t think we’re in any big trouble yet. We may have a few question marks at SP but if guys like Hughes and AJ step up and perform like we’ve seen them do in the past we can be more than set.
If the Yankess had to have Lee, they wouldve had him
I believe that Cashman did the right thing here. The Yanks could have made him an offer he couldn’t refuse but they were smart enough to put a cap on how much they wanted Cliff Lee. I really believe that Lee would be a Yankee today if he came here in that trade last year. Lee isnt going to be a Yankee in 2011 and its time to move on to guys who will be.
Should you choose to test my resolve in this matter, you will be facing a finality beyond your comprehension, and you will not be counting days, or months, or years, but milleniums in a place with no doors.
The only problem with your theory is that signing
Lee for 7 years at $30MM would have been absolutely stupid.
Obviously
7 years wasn’t required. He took more money per year and less years.
However I think my point is valid. If we needed this guy we failed to make the bid which would get him. We let ourselves be outbid by Texas and Philly. They do not have more money than we do. They do not need him more than we do. What’s up with that?
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
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