The Tools of Ignorance: Monday News
by jscape2000 on Dec 13, 2010 6:00 AM EST
in New York Yankees News
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PrintWhile the Yankees continue the Cliff Lee vigil, it seems every other team in baseball is making moves:
- The Red Sox re-signed Jason Varitek, and the remain active on a number of relievers plus catcher Russell Martin.
- The Orioles have redesigned the left side of their infield.
- While the Rays haven't held on to any of their big names, they're doing their best to move on.
- The Blue Jays have been linked to Martin and Zach Greinke.
Outside the AL East, the A's are closing in on Hideki Matsui, the Angels signed Scott Downs, and the White Sox added Adam Dunn to the core of veterans returning to the squad.
Frankly, I'm not terribly thrilled to see the Yanks' offseason hinge so completely on one signing. It's not because of what I think about Cliff Lee, but because of what I think of our favorite loudmouth: Hank Steinbrenner.
Unlike Cashman, Hank seems like the kind of guy who is swayed by the media narrative, and if Lee signs with the Rangers or a mystery team, the narrative is certain to be "The Yankees failed to get their man." If this puts pressure on Cashman to spend too much on importing a starter, or to commit too much to a mediocre free agent, this quickly becomes the worst case scenario. There are a few pitchers rumored to be available that I would trade for at the right price. There aren't really any free agent starters (after Lee) who have a chance of fulfilling the contract they'd likely sign.
But I worry about narratives, because it's all to easy to fall into their spell for the people who spend their time listen, reading, and writing about the Yankees and baseball (myself included). Pavano was a pansy, RJ was lousy in pinstripes, Greinke only had one good year. There is evidence to disprove each of those positions, but I hear them all on a regular basis. Sometimes, when I'm upset or in a hurry, it's hard to resist the lure of a strong narrative. But that doesn't make it any more true.
The success or failure of the Yankees' offseason does not depend on the signing of any one player. Say it three times, and click your heels together.
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I could totally see Hank panicing and going...
GIVE BRAD PENNY A 100 MILLION DOLLAR CONTRACT!
"Son, Nobody is half as good as Mickey Mantle"
yea I don't like it either
I mean there really aren’t a ton of players out there that I’d like to see here, but it seems Russel “can’t call a game” Martin and Cliff “I don’t even like NY” Lee are the only ones we’re going after. Crawford was just to drive up the price to the Pissants and Angels (successful) and for some reason I didn’t hear anything about Adam Dunn going to the Bronx.
I have a bad feeling that we’ll be trading some spects for a starter as well. Hopefully its more in line with the Vazquez and Granderson trade i.e. players that don’t matter.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Players that don't matter?
Okay, but I think Coke may have mattered and the jury is still out on AJax. We are going to make a trade regardless of what Lee does, unless the front office is finally going to be willing to give Nova, Betances, and/or Joba the opportunity to start.
There's always next year
Coke didn't matter in 2009
he was good at times, but more of a hinderence then anything important.
AJAX didn’t matter since the reason they traded him was since he wasn’t going to make the MLB roster.
THAT…is all.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
ZZZzzzzzz ZZZZZzzzz ZZZZZZzzzz
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Good to hear form ya!!!!!!!!
I was jsut kiddin. I havent talked to ya in awhile so i figured i should remind you of your talent.
Gardner for President.
Also, why does Cliff have such a 'OMG HES THE BEST PITCHER EVAR' reputation?
Hes pretty much had three good years, preceded by 4 really mediocre ones.
"Son, Nobody is half as good as Mickey Mantle"
Yeah, really
This WILL be the worst signing/contract “evar” for a pitcher…just sit back and watch it unfold…
There's always next year
Only if...
He becomes Carl Pavano or Barry Zito
by lololol on Dec 13, 2010 10:56 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree, he is decent in my mind, not great.
All we are saying , is give NOVA a chance!
Gardner for President.
After some thought.....................Eff Lee ....................if he doesnt sign with the Yanks
Yes Lee will improve our rotation drastically, BUT tied up to another big contract for that many years just means one thing for me……………… my Guiness beer will go up another couple of dollars in a couple of years!!!!
Pretty soon we will be paying $16 for one stinking beer.
Gardner for President.
Lee we'll have to make a trade with prospects
and with no prospects we’ll just replace their role with more older players before new prospects can take their place. you have to draw the line somewhere and keeping prospects in order to get lee is that line i think. 1 roster spot > trading 4 top prospects
Be
hoove?
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
by Lord Duggan on Dec 13, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
The Yankees would be competitive without Lee
they just wouldn’t be dominant. For them to win out, players who had bad years last year would have to have good years. Players from the farm system would have to contribute, perhaps significantly. There would have to be clutch performances in key games.
In other words, they would be like other teams.
There would be the risk of a 1965-type collapse, when a team of high-paid declining stars suddenly went from the World Series to below .500 (77-85, 6th in an 8-team league), but if that happens, signing Cliff Lee wouldn’t save the season, just make it more expensive.
The Yankees are acting as though the only real problem they have is a lack of starting pitching. If Pettitte doesn’t come back they still have a lack of starting pitching, and they haven’t dealt with the longer-term problem of the aging stars.
Their big run in the late 1990s started when they brought up a lot of talent from their farm system. As a fan, I would be willing to watch the Yankees try Montero, Nova, Nunez, and others from the farm to see if they can provide some future answers.
Mickey C
Me too
I’ve stated over and over that I’m willing to give the youngsters a place on the team for the chance to gain some experience and show what they can do, even if it means missing the playoffs for a year. So many here are so spoiled by the recent success of the Yankees, their youth shows. I remember ‘79-’95 and like you said, it was the opportunity afforded Jeter, Mo, and Posada that started this long reign. So let’s stop being spoiled brats and look to the long term future of our team. F*ck Cliff Lee and don’t make any rash trades. Let’s see what the Killer B’s and Heathcott and Nova and Montero can do. But we all know a big trade is coming and half the farm will go along with it…sigh.
There's always next year
If we did that, the best we could hope for would be fighting toe Orioles for third place... Not for me!
by YANKEES FOREVER on Dec 13, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
We don’t know what would occur. If Pettitte comes back that would perhaps leave Nova the fifth spot. Without Pettitte we could let Betances get some starts. We all know we will be clearing some of these guys out in the near future for a number 3 or 4 type starter, so the point is moot.
There's always next year
You realize Betance has had 14 innings in AA… Jumping him to the MLB would be dumb at this point.
by lololol on Dec 13, 2010 11:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Trading him along with Montero or Banuelos or Heathcott and Joba would be even dumber.
There's always next year
I never said I would… But on that topic I have said if we can trade him plus more w/o ManBan or montero for a guy like Grienke I would…
by lololol on Dec 13, 2010 11:52 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I feel a trade is coming…but I’m not convinced it will be Greinke. I think if the Lee deal falls through it will be more a 3 or 4 type starter. We already have an ace, no sense in giving up so much potential for a guy who may not be comfortable pitching in New York.
There's always next year
What is the potential
for Betances or Brackman or Banuelos?
Is it to win a Cy Young award in their mid-twenties, because that’s the guy we’re talking about trading for.
As with Granderson-Ajax, if the guy you get back is the fully developed version of the guy you give up, why not?
Now, you could get me to agree with not trading all of them, but I’m flabbergasted by the sudden rise of this idea that a guy who has only made a couple starts in AA is now untouchable.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
agreed
As this article points out…the % of top prospects becoming above avg major leaguers is near 50/50. For them to become elite players(great + franchise) the chance become 25%. those odds are stacked against a young prospects to become a top player.
We have an ace
No sense in giving up the farm for another one who may or may not even want to or be able to pitch in NY. Trade for a #3 or 4 type, fine, but don’t give up our top prospects to get one. One of the B’s and one of our catchers should suffice for a 3/4 guy.
We don’t know the “potential” of these giys sans perhaps Brackman, who will undoubtedly end up a reliever. And that’s why you just don’t trade them away before knowing whether or not you may be trading away a potential star.
There's always next year
I understand your concern but...
Their success in the last 15 years has been because the team has been built around a core of players, and that core is vanishing. Signing a 32-year-old pitcher to a 7 year contract won’t change that. My concern is – who is going to be the core five years from now? They only have three starting position players – Cano, Gardner, and Granderson – under age 30, and the only starting pitcher under 30 is Hughes. They have to start looking at their younger players.
The Yankees have had a great deal of success over the years patching around the core, but you can’t patch around nothing.
Mickey C
The rate of every top prospect working out is pretty low. We’d be lucky if one of the 3 killer b’s work out to be starters and that’s in like 2 years at best…Plus in the next few years the team will be older and the window is closing so if they can win now they should take every chance to do so.
by lololol on Dec 13, 2010 11:25 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I am 100% with you, david
There’s just the little problem of money. Winning (and the playoffs) make money, which make the Yankees able to afford this team, which becomes a pretty vicious cycle. Of course I understand why the Yankees do it – if you can be the winningest franchise AND make money, you do it. I just hope they don’t run into a wall when they have the farm development philosophy imposed on them.
I’m getting tired of Lee’s act too. How hard can it be to decide between two 100 million+ offers?
by pkyankeefan on Dec 13, 2010 11:59 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sounds like you want a repeat of 2008 and we were pinning our hopes on the "Three Amigos"
by YANKEES FOREVER on Dec 13, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Nah it'll be worse since 2 of the killer B's won't even be ready
That’ll be in 2 years… Next year w/o lee or another picther we’ll be like the sox last year…in terms of having a high scoring offense but lack of pitching outside of a dominant lefty and a young guy.
by lololol on Dec 13, 2010 11:17 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
The way I see it is
Signing Lee is saving the youth. We all know that if we don’t get Lee the Yankees are not just going to say “ah oh well, lets give the kids a try.” They’re going to trade the farm for someone. If we get Lee we can hold on to these guys and hopefully give them a chance. I know it’s another long expensive contract to an aging player, but by the time the youth is ready to come up there will be other spots to take (Pettitte, Burnett) So i’d rather have one less roster spot than no prospects to fill it
I understand this
We’re kinda hamstrung either way but I’d rather not sign Lee and suffer the consequences for a year than deplete the farm. We are not going to see the end of the world if we don’t make the playoffs for one year, which may or may not happen.
There's always next year
things do or do not happen all the time
Well, sometimes at least.
"I'm just tryin' to be the great, tryin' to get a piece of cake
Take it offa your plate, eat it right in your face" --Lil Wayne
The problem with the 1964 Yankees was a top-heavy roster, both in age and player value. Mickey Mantle, Elston Howard, and Whitey Ford combined for 19.1 WAR that season – about 48% of the team’s total – and they were 32, 35, and 35 years old, respectively. The next season they dropped to 6.2 WAR, and the Yankees fell to 77-85
However, there is no parallel between that team and the 2011 Yankees, because the talent on this roster is spread out more evenly amongst players who are reasonably close to their primes. Most of the “aging stars” (i.e. Jeter, A-Rod) carry more perceived value than actual value.
The Yankees 4 most valuable hitters in in 2010? Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner. The oldest of the quartet will turn 31 next season. Jeter and A-Rod may be the faces of the franchise, but they were only the 5th and 8th most valuable hitters on the team last season.
I think the worst case scenario for this team is a repeat of 2008, where they battle injuries/ineffectivness form couple of regulars and they “only” win 85-90 games. Now, 2015 may be a different story, but I’m not worried about a freefall in 2011 or 2012.
Are the Yanks boxed by CC's contract?
The Rangers know CC’s contract amount. CC’s our no. 1 starter and we make that very clear to everyone. So can’t the Rangers be certain that our Lee offer does not exceed CC’s contract terms, deduct for the difference in income tax rates, and offer Lee that amount? Also, factor in the “country boy” effect, the bad fan experience of Mrs. Lee, and the distance factor. If we offer Lee more than CC, we will undoubtedly have to pay CC the difference, when his opt-out clause comes due. So I’m not real optimistic about Lee.
(Not that I want to be). His refusal, or lack of volunteering, to pitch on 4 games rest in Philly said alot about where his heads at. I’d rather go for Greinke and send Joba to the KC with others.
They're not willing to go 7 years
“Word” was that he preferred the Rangers but wanted the 6th year. Now that they’ve offered it, he still wants what only the Yanks are giving – more money and a 7th year. Looks like he wants his cake and wants to eat it too.
For his sake, I hope he picks Texas. He’s gotten them to offer their absolute maximum. What else can he ask them for? He likes the place, and they’ve made him a great offer. If it’s a Yankee offer from Texas that he’s after, he might be disappointed.
by pkyankeefan on Dec 13, 2010 12:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree
and it’s getting a little ridiculous. Sorry buddy, not everything works out like you want. First world problems…
Agree on Lee's offer... Garza & Jurgens instead of Greinke
Our 7 years/$160MM offer should be it for Lee. CC is our ace and should remain our highest paid pitcher.
Greinke would be too expensive in terms of prospects. I would rather have Garza & Jurgens/or Floyd/or Danks for roughly the same cost in terms of quality players exchanged. If we don’t get Lee and Petitte retires we will need two starters.
by YANKEES FOREVER on Dec 13, 2010 11:55 AM EST reply actions
If we don't get Lee
I;d rather them go after a Jurgens level pitcher or even another Vasquez type that theoretically is a steal but would actually need to perform
Buster is reporting
that the Yankees are “very interested” in Russell Martin and he would not be surprised
if they have a deal in place in the next few days.
except for the fact we don;t expect him to start or contribute too much offensively but mainly as a back up and a defender. Plus him being years younger than NJ…but other than that yea….another Nick Johnson completely.
Also
NJ was a pure luxury/ inconvenience- we had a better 1B already, and the DH spot could have just as easily been rotated among the vets.
Martin is being brought in to be a part of the solution to the Yanks’ greatest area of weakness (other than SP).
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Leave Jesus alone Cashman.
LEAVE HIM ALONE.
And if you forget our names, just tell them we were Yankees
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Dec 13, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
Just ready to be done with it
one way or the other. Maybe Lee can do a one hour special and “take his talents” to River Ave?
"That's what you're in business for. You try to make a success."
Quotation of George Steinbrenner
R.I.P Boss, you made Yankee fans proud.
by ReggieARodJeter on Dec 13, 2010 1:51 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Since we're just waiting around...
What did you think of the Lance Berkman acquisition last season? As an Astros fan,
I was devastated at first, then decided that if he had to be traded, at least he went to a
team where he had a chance to win the WS.
I thought it was a good pickup- I think Melacon can be a solid MLB reliever if given the chance (which, frankly, Joe G never would have given him).
It didn’t work out because of bad luck and an injury.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Berkman did not have an impact with us due to injury & new league... Can't imagine how he is going to play LF with the Cardinals
by YANKEES FOREVER on Dec 13, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
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