Free Agent Portfolio: Cliff Lee
by Brandon C. on Nov 7, 2010 11:00 AM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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Cliff Lee is the biggest name in free agency this winter, and the Yankees are of course interested in signing him. Here is some information about him followed by pro and con arguments.
Simple Facts
Age: 32
Throws: Left-handed
2010 Stats: 12-9, 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 185 K's, 18 BB's, .240 BAA.
2010 Best Month: June, 4-1 1.76 ERA
2010 Worst Month: August, 1-4 6.35 ERA
2010 Vs. 2010 Playoff Teams (Regular Season): Vs. TB: 0-3, 4.56 ERA, Vs. MIN: 0-1, 4.15 ERA
Career Stats:
102-61, 1085 K's, 350 BB's, 1.26 WHIP, .260 BAA.
Vs. Boston: 2-4, 4.06 ERA
Vs. TB: 6-5, 2.87 ERA
At Yankee Stadium: 2-0, 2.40 ERA
In Pitches 1-15: 6.18 ERA
In Pitches 106-120: 5.44 ERA
Why the Yankees Shouldn't Sign Cliff Lee, by Duggan (Taken from his 10/14 piece) -
By merely maintaining the status quo, the Yankees are already close to a lock for making the playoffs in the next few seasons (or as close to a lock as you can be, assuming 2/3 of the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays trio makes it every year). As such, I have to really question the marginal gain in adding Cliff Lee (especially when Cliff Lee in and of himself does not guarantee a playoff spot). If we are already likely to make the playoffs and if the playoffs are a celebration of small sample size randomness, is it worth putting another major dent in the Yankees future finances? Again, I would contend that it is not.
If another starting pitcher is needed for the 2011 season, I think there are plenty of cheaper and more cost effective ways for the Yankees to maintain a high probability of reaching the playoffs. Firstly, Joba Chamberlain needs to be given a full year of starting. One truncated season of mediocre results (4.56 xFIP, 1.8 WAR) in the AL East at the age of 23 is nowhere near conclusive proof that Joba can't/won't/shouldn't start.
In addition to Joba, Ivan Nova has shown flashes of brilliance, and in the pile of Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances, Manuel Banuelos, D.J. Mitchell, and Adam Warren, I have to think we have some potential 2012/2013 starters and 2011 bullpen contributors. In addition, I would have to guess that this off season, the Yankees start moving their glut of catching depth.
Personally, if I were Brian Cashman, I would already be trying to build a package centered around Austin Romine to acquire a starting pitcher. Romine is likely to attract a lot of suitors in the National League due to his sterling defensive reputation, and I don't think his trade value will ever be higher than it is now. I have never been of the opinion that Romine will hit enough to take away playing time from guys like Jesus Montero or Gary Sanchez, and in my view, he represents a redundancy of Francisco Cervelli.
Another year of league average hitting at AA (99 wRC+) will only diminish his value as a prospect, and as the Yankees have a surplus of catching prospects, I think they would be advised to flip Romine as quickly as possible.
In addition to acquiring a starter via trade, I think there are also cheaper, "reclamation" type free agents available at a much more manageable price: Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, or Brandon Webb will all be free agents this off season, and if I'm Brian Cashman, I look at each and every one of them before I think about Cliff Lee.
Why the Yankees Should Sign Cliff Lee, by Travis -
I'll try to make this short. Cliff Lee is no-doubt the best pitcher on the free agent market. You can't argue that. He would give the Yankees the best 1-2 starting duo in baseball. Not only is he the best available pitcher, but he's one of the best in baseball. The only pitchers with higher WARs over the last three years are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Tim Lincecum.
- He should age well as he relies more on command than stuff. His fastball averages just 91 MPH, so when his stuff inevitably declines, he'll still be a successful pitcher. Quick aside: his FB velocity has actually increased every year since 2006.
- For comparison, two of the best pitchers of the past decade, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, changed teams in their early 30's and continued their dominant ways, pitching at least as good as they had previously. Cliff Lee will be 32 next year, younger than either RJ or Schilling when they changed uniforms.
- Lee has been a phenomenal postseason pitcher, racking up a 2.13 ERA in 76 innings with 80 strikeouts against eight walks.
- What if Andy Pettitte decides to retire in January? Now that we know Joba's staying in the bullpen, it would leave the rotation as Sabathia, Hughes, Burnett and... and what if injuries happen? It's a scary scenario.
- What if CC opts out of his contract after 2011, as is his right? Another scary scenario.
- Left-handed pitchers tend to fare better in Yankee Stadium. In its two years of business, LHP have a .754 OPS Against while RHP have suffered an .803 OPS Against. (FYI, those are the career OPS's of Mark Loretta and Torii Hunter, respectively. That's a big difference.)
- Lee is especially effective against the running game, even before 2008 (the first year of Lee as a dominant pitcher). In his nine seasons, there have been 2129 ‘stolen base opportunities' against him. Guess how many players tried to steal?... 69 (1 in 31). For comparison, Andy Pettitte, known for his great pickoff move, sees an attempted steal once out of every 18 opportunities (and the 2010 Yankees pitching staff overall saw an attempt once in every 14 opportunities). With Jorge Posada turning 40 in August and the defensively challenged Jesus Montero coming up behind him, Lee would be a great asset in stopping the running game.
- Against the Yankees' division rivals, he's been almost universally superb since his ‘resurrection' in 2008. 1.45 ERA vs. TOR (31 ip), 2.73 ERA vs. TB (52.2 ip including the playoffs), 2.63 ERA vs. BOS (24 ip), and a 2.31 ERA vs. NYY (66.1 ip including the playoffs). The only AL East team he hasn't shut down is, ironically, Baltimore (6.14 ERA in 22 ip). So not only would we acquire a pitcher who's shut us down time after time, but he would be doing it for us against our rivals.
- More disturbingly, what if a rival team signs him? Not only would we have to face him countless times over the next several years, but the desire for a frontline pitcher could cause a drastic move like trading Jesus Montero and other top prospects. And that was the whole reason many of us wanted the Montero-for-Lee deal to fall through in June: If we were a bit more patient, we could have both players. That time has (hopefully) come. And really, could you stomach seeing him in a Boston uniform facing us 3-5 times a year?
- As for the money, Jeter is likely to take a pay cut while Javier Vazquez' and Nick Johnson's salaries are coming off the books (not to mention Kerry Wood's and Lance Berkman's). That will free up at least $20 million (not counting Andy's potential retirement). Would five years, $100 million do the trick? I'd reluctantly do six years, but that's pushing it.
So much for keeping it short.
There you have it: Every stat (non-sabr, that is) and two opinions about Cliff Lee. Should the Yankees sign him? Vote.
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Sign him.
If we lose Pettitte we basically have 4 unreliable pitchers in the rotation. Hughes is still a bit unreliable and he would be the 2nd best pitcher in that rotation if we don’t sign Lee.
Did you see my fanshot from SI Fannation?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
Great numbers against the playoff teams
This slobbering love affair over this guy is, quite frankly, embarrassing.
There's always next year
He is one of the best post-season pitchers in recent memory.
His 47/2 K/BB ratio is simply outstanding in this years past playoffs. Its human nature to want the best player on the market. Some people want to rebel and believe we don’t need him. In reality we probably do.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
We need a good solid pitcher.
I doubt we win the World Series with a rotation of
CC, AJ, Hughes, Joba, Nova
Doubt it.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
Pettitte's not gone yet
But why wouldn’t we make the Series with our rotation? We mad it without Lee in ’09 with pretty much the rotation you mentioned plus Pettitte, and won. Give our guys a chance, save some money for mid season upgrades.
There's always next year
AJ is not the AJ he once was.
Joba and Nova are shaky.
Pettitte is a year older who knows. You can’t rely on that. I would love to feel at ease with keeping the team the same, but I can’t. I want Lee because he gives us the best chance to win. Its not harming anyone at all. We’re not losing Montero or Romine or Sanchez for him. So why not?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
We'll see
I’m all for bringing up our young talent and giving them a shot. If we could get him for 3 years I’d feel more comfortable. A long term contract, imo, is not a prudent move for a pitcher who ain’t no Spring chicken and has had an injury keeping him out for a spell every season. My stance is known, as it was with Vazquez and NJ…
There's always next year
Well if you don't want Lee because hes old (32)
then Andy is certainly not on your wish list.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
Pettitte's only a one year deal
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Much cheaper.
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What is mind? No matter. What is matter? Never mind. -- Thomas Key
And Lee is probably 3-5
And he’ll be younger than Pettitte when he finishes the contract. Your point?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
probably is not is.
as in he probably won’t be. and 5 years is too damn long
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
You can't be probably about age.
Say a 5 year deal. Hes 32 currently. Andy Pettitte is 38. If Lee finishes his 5 year deal he’ll be 37.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
too old to be paying that much for that long
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Less risk
Less money=ability to get more players to fill other needs.
Lee is NOT signing for less than 5 years. Get real.
There's always next year
3-5...
5 is in there. The money isn’t really a big issue for the Yankees as it is for other teams though. I know its not good to lock up money for long periods of time, but Lee is worth it.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
Yea.
But I see your side of the story.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
If we sign him
I hope he wins 20 every season. I just have my doubts about signing him. Gut feeling I guess.
There's always next year
My gut feeling is
we go up 2-0 in the World Series. haha
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
what “other needs” do we really have? Starting pitching is the largest glaring weakness of the team, everything else is fine. Cliff Lee is the guy who best shores up our biggest weakness, so we should get him.
Montero will be our savior in 2011.
I think we'll
need another pitcher at some point. We can get 2 for the price of one at much less risk
There's always next year
We have options if someone gets injured and we need another pitcher. Nova is there, and I’ve heard some say that Brackman could be called up at some point this year. And I wouldn’t be against giving Joba another chance if Andy retires or someone gets hurt.
Montero will be our savior in 2011.
Everything you stated
is exactly why I don’t want Lee. CC, AJ, Hughes, Pettitte (perhaps), Nova, Brackman, Betances, Joba, etc. We have signed many a free agent pitcher to high dollar long term contracts which have not panned out. Pavano, AJ to this point, are the most recent. CC has been a good one, but he has always had an iron arm. Lee, imo, is too risky and will be another bad signing.
There's always next year
Your details are not welcome here.
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And if you forget our names, just tell them we were Yankees
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Nov 7, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Excuse me?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
Wasn't talking to you.
***Free FreeBradshaw***
And if you forget our names, just tell them we were Yankees
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Nov 7, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Oh okay.
I thought I said something wrong.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
If you press the up button beside reply you can see what comment was replied to.
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And if you forget our names, just tell them we were Yankees
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Nov 7, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
I never knew that!
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What is mind? No matter. What is matter? Never mind. -- Thomas Key
"AJ is not the AJ he once was"
Why not? Because he had a bad year?
Just because he had an off year this year does not mean that he’s guaranteed to be bad next year. Lets not act that way. People were writing off Mike Mussina in 2008 and look what he put up. There’s a bigger chance that Burnett reverts back to 2009 form than there is of having another 2010. The stuff is there.
Believe it or not I’m actually not all that concerned with him. I think he’ll be a solid #3 for the Yankees next year. They do need another mid-top rotation starter though, because AJ isn’t totally reliable and they can’t have one sure thing in the rotation. I’m going to feel a lot better if they sign Lee and/or get creative with a trade that doesn’t include Montero to get a starter over here.
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"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
Same way they're writing off Jeter
Some fans we have…No loyalty and appreciation.
There's always next year
loyalty has nothing to do with declining peripherals . Lower velocity, lower strike out rates, higher walk rates does not bold well for a pitcher like AJ. he can rebound but the signs are not pretty.
Oh, believe me
my loyalty and appreciation comment had nothing to do with AJ, just DJ. I know he ain’t what he used to be, but he;s not just any aging Yankee. He’s in a class with Joe D, Mickey, Gehrig, etc as far as great Yankees go.
There's always next year
Signs are never pretty after a bad season
It is possible that AJ was hiding an injury throughout part of the season or that he had personal issues. I mean, he showed up in the middle of the season with a black eye. He threw a good game that day if I remember, but you don’t just show up with a black eye and pretend it’s nothing.
The velocity was there in Game 4, whether it’s adrenaline or whether he was finally healthy or whatever. But the velocity isn’t gone. It’s not like Moose who’s velocity was gone and he needed to reinvent himself.
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"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
Thanks for answering lololol
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
Seriously, the love affair is half the reason I don't want him.
***Free FreeBradshaw***
And if you forget our names, just tell them we were Yankees
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Nov 7, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but if they don't I wouldn't be too upset.
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Don't sign him
His back problems will hurt the Yanks more then Cliff.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Benefits of Cliff Lee.
Cliff Lee isn’t a guy who is going to lose MPH off his fastball over night. Hes a location pitcher. A 92-93 MPH fastball on the corners is nasty. He also didn’t throw a ton of innings his career yet because hes a late bloomer. 1409 IP. Hes no fluke either.Hes 32 years old and a 5 year deal until hes 37 years old isn’t bad. He wouldn’t regress a whole lot. He’ll probably post a low 6 WAR, then about the same in 2012. In 2013 it will probably be around high 5 in WAR and then by 37 (2015) it will be around 4.5-5.0. Just projecting the way he’ll degress. It is worth it. Having a 4-5 WAR pitcher at the age of the 37 will be solid. His total WAR is 30 right now by the time hes done with the Yankees he can double it or come near that and have a ring or two.
By then you might have CC, Lee, Hughes, Man Ban, and Joba being in the rotation pitching out of their minds. Led by older veterans who can still put up solid #’s late in their career and then others who are hitting their peaks of their careers. Do it.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
Damn I'm torn.
Great arguments on both sides. I’d say go for it – you can never have enough pitching. Remember how we had Wang pencilled in as an anchor in the rotation for years? The rotation has two very solid starters, three IF Pettitte comes back, and then hope for some development of the farmhands or the second coming of Aaron Small. Too many question marks. If it’s money, again, I’m sure there’s some money to be freed up. (Bring back Kerry Wood though.)
He’s pretty good in the postseason as well.
Also, he’s got great stats against us – better to have him on our side than facing him 3 times in a ALCS…
However – five years scares me. Three with option for four, or even four with option for five I could live with.
I'm torn here
I like Duggan’s argument but Travis’s argument makes it tough to say no. I ended up voting no, but I will say this.
The Yankees need another starting pitcher, especially if Andy Pettitte doesn’t come back. Sabathia is a lockdown ace, but after that they have only Hughes and Burnett under control. I don’t consider each of them really #2 starters. Hughes is solid and young, but I look at him as a #3 right now. He’s on his way though. Burnett is a #3 with #1 type stuff, but I’m hoping the Yankees go into next season with Burnett as the third starter and Hughes as the fourth starter. They need another guy to slot into the #2 spot. If it has to be Cliff Lee, so be it. If the Yanks don’t sign Lee it means they’re going to start shopping Montero, then sign him.
But if they can get a starter by getting creative through a trade and getting someone younger and cheaper to fill the number 2 spot I’d much rather go that route.
**FREE FreeBradshaw***
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
I must add
that I’m actually okay with starting Nova and/or someone else from the farm. I know there would be growing pains possibly at the expense of a playoff appearance and this “just is not acceptable” to most Yankees fans, not to mention the brass.
There's always next year
How about Joba as the fifth starter?
I think it’s time to give him a shot.
**FREE FreeBradshaw***
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
I'm not sure
what to think about Joba any more. I’d let him try to win a spot in the Spring, but that decision should be his. The Yankees have jerked him around enough.
There's always next year
I agree
but I feel that his chance will come with Pettitte’s retirement. I think this may be it. Nova is way to untrustworthy to just be given a rotation spot. He needs to work a lot out first
No to Cliff Lee...
I’m against Cliff Lee because I am afraid he’ll catch Allan James Burnett disease. The fear the Yanks would have two near mid 30s pitchers who used their best days to get a big contract and do very little once acquired by the Yankees. Yes Cliff Lee can be dominating but is he injury away from not playing, can’t get healthy and stay healthy. I afraid he’ll be another Carl Pavano who could not stay healthy. There wasn’t a Yankee fan happy when he left the Bronx. If the Yanks do sign him. 4 year deal tops. Nothing above 4 years. That way if Cliff Lee deal goes bad, the Yanks can let him go without a lot money tied up in the future.
If Yanks pass on Lee, then find some serviceable pitcher(s) who eat innings to fill out the rotation. We still have Nova and then find a serviceable pitcher.
AJ = no control and swing and miss stuff with 2 good pitches
lee = control pitcher, catch you looking lefty with 4 good pitches…completely different pitchers
Lee and Burnett are two very different pitchers
Lee is a control pitcher with 5 plus pitches that he can pinpoint almost as well as Rivera can. Explain to me how he can “go bad”? I suppose anything can happen, but are we really going to worry about Cliff Lee if he signs? I’m not.
And also how did Burnett do very little once acquired? He helped the Yankees win a championship last year. It’s truly amazing how one bad season can make people forget so much.
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"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
to add a bit more
- Lee is not as injury prone as some are making him out to be. He’s thrown at least 200 ip in every season but one since 2005. and the only season he didn’t (‘07) is because he was ’re-tooling’ himself (ala early 2000’s Roy Halladay) and threw 50 MiL innings.
- the Phils traded their best prospects for a 32-year old Halladay last off-season and that worked out decently for them, yes? Lee is 32 and would only require money (and a draft pick).
- re: Joba – Girardi has already said he sees Joba as a full-time reliever in 2011. so forget about him being in the rotation.
by Travis G on Nov 7, 2010 6:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
+1.
And he doesn’t rely on power. He relies on location.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby
Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2
well that settles that
what’s next on their agenda, robbing Fort Knox on elephant back? That’s the dumbest plan I ever heard.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Elephants didn’t work for the Tunisians when they tried to invade Rome, apparently the Yankees didn’t learn from history.
Montero will be our savior in 2011.
Does that make Brian Cashman Hannibal?
They’d probably have an easier time with the Appalachians than they did with the Alps.
Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?
The only reason not to get him is because of the concern that the rest of the league will think the Yankees are spoiled and just buy championships. And that, of course, is no reason at all.
I give up. Sign him and get the whining and speculating over with. That's it. No other reason.
I’m already steeling myself for posts before he pitches entitles “Cliff Notes” and “Off the Cliff” after he loses. Also, “Cliff Lee? More like Sara Lee!” etc….
by designatedquitter on Nov 8, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions
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