Of Sample Sizes, Batting Averages, and the Derek Jeter

by jscape2000 on Nov 4, 2010 1:00 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

I was re-reading an old article about sample sizes by someone much smarter than me. And I was thinking.

Here's what we know:

A season worth of OBP is a good indicator of talent because a batter controls most of the activity involved (to swing or not).

A season worth of SLG is a good indicator of talent because a batter's talent dictates the majority of the outcome (power and speed mean more Total Bases).

A season worth of BA is not a good indicator of talent because much of BA happens outside the hitter's control (is the ball caught or not).

Here's my thought: Batting average affects OBP and SLG.

From 2009 to 2010, Derek Jeter's batting average fell 64 points. His OBP fell 66 points. That 19% drop in BA corresponds nicely to the 20% drop in his SLG. I'm not sure about the impact of these observations, but the symmetry is striking.

Now, I have every reason to be confident that the 2010 Derek Jeter hit .270/.340/.370 for a reason. This was not bad luck- this was way too many groundballs and fewer line drives. A late season session with Kevin Long gives Yankee fans hope that Jeter's early season malaise is not going to be a lifetime condition.

And in projecting Derek Jeter's future, I'm more inclined to look at his .300/.363/.408 2008 and the average of his 2009 and 2010, .301/.372/.416. Isn't it eerie how closely the numbers line up when we take the larger sample? I suspect they're telling us something.

Jeter is in decline, make no mistake (how does a shortstop hit .337/.413/.505 with 71SB over three years and never finish higher than third in MVP voting?). We expect his performance to decline as he gets older. But I think 2010 was a low point lower than could have been expected, and lower than should be expected again.

*Thanks to my friends at Beyond the Boxscore for helping me straighten out some of my thinking.

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4 yrs and two club options thats it

by Pa Po on Nov 4, 2010 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

Jeter isn't falling off a cliff

Next year he’ll be Jeter again.

I think this season was a combination of things: age, injury and a refusal to ask for help/belief that he can figure it out himself

If he went to Kevin Long when Granderson did I think we’d be looking at this differently, Jeter did hit pretty good the last few weeks of the season and into the postseason.

I think what happened was that due to age and injury, either his bat slowed down or his approach was different and he was never able to right himself and finally need Long to help him out.

That being said, I don’t get the idea of a coach or manager having to “wait” until a player comes to them for help. He’s a multi million dollar investment, if he’s not living up to his worth and someone can help him fix himself then it shouldn’t be an option of whether or not he chooses to ask for help. This isn’t spring training, the team doesn’t have time for you to figure things out. He needs help? fix him or bench him. Kevin Long is a resource that shouldn’t be wasted

sigh, needed to get that off my chest.

by jetanumba2 on Nov 4, 2010 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

JETERS END SIMILIAR TO CAL RIPKEN

I have no doubt Jetter will bonve back next year. It is the years after that I worry about. Signing him to anything beyond 2 with a nice retirement option is insane. OH! By the way Jeter is not a DH in any sense of the word as his power days are long gone.
Now lets take a look at Ripkens end.
Ripken in 98 at the 37 hit 270 while finally being forced to move to third base full time. Brodderick was signed to play short.
Ripken in the next two years while playing third averged over 300..THE PROBLEM…He only played in 81 games one year and 86 games in the next year.
THIS BRINGS US TO 2001 AND CAL FINALLY REALIZES ITS OVER!
Still want to sign Jeter for more than two years???? That means 30 million dollar Arod will be your DH and you will now need a full time SS and backup third baseman to make it work.

by jfk69 on Nov 4, 2010 4:27 PM EDT reply actions