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Around The Yankees Galaxy - 11/14/10

River Avenue Blues states the obvious about Bill James' projections for Jesus Montero in 2011:

I’d say for Montero to approach his AAA line (and James' projection) in the majors in 2011, he’d have to be pretty consistently awesome for 6 months (with the expected normal peaks and valleys) as a 21 year old rookie catcher, in New York, playing on a team that expects to win the World Series (emphasis added).   Good luck with that.

James is predicting a .285/.348/.519 for Montero, and if he did that he'd be in historic territory. 

He should, however, easily eclipse the AL average line for catchers - .245/.312/.374 last season - and if he can manage to combine that with just slightly below replacement level defense, he should be a pretty good major leaguer in 2011.

I just hope we don't give him the Joba treatment........

Star-divide

  • ESPN has a great post about the success (if you want to call it that) of long-term free agent contracts for pitchers over the last two decades.  Sure, you can argue technicalities a bit, for example, the Red Sox traded for Pedro Martinez in 1997 and signed him to an extension, thus avoiding free agency altogether.  But the point still stands - long term contracts are risky, and you can probably count on both hands the number of 5+ year deals that have worked out for teams. 
  • Andy Pettitte may or may not pitch in 2011, but he's announced he definitely won't pitch in 2012.  All the more reason to give Joba a shot....

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I agree they should give Joba a shot.

What sort of year does Joba have to have to say he’s succeeded as a starter? Nobody was worried about Hughes after a pretty huge decline in the last month or so since it was his first full season as a starter. Does Joba get that same leeway at the end of the season?

Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?

by Q-TDSK on Nov 14, 2010 8:37 AM EST reply actions  

Really excited for Jesus next season

In his rookie season, I’ll honestly be happy with a .260 average and 20 home runs. If he does that I consider his rookie season a success. If he exceeds that it’s just a bonus, but from what I’ve heard about him I won’t be surprised if he hits like he did in AAA next year. The key with him is patience. If they are serious about him being their starting catcher next year and in the future, then they need to have patience with him. Not write him off as a bust if he struggles for a few months like he did in AAA.

I agree, Joba deserves a shot. It’s time to put him in the rotation and see what he can do. A full season without an innings limit. Let go of the leash and let him pitch. Even if he’s just a back-end starter, thats more valuable to the Yankees than a mid-reliever. And Joba has great stuff with a ton of upside, so I think if the Yankees give him a real opportunity he’ll be better than a back-end starter.

"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant

by nyyrocks29 on Nov 14, 2010 9:56 AM EST reply actions  

The projections should for Montero should make any Yankee fan happy.

Whether he lives up to those or not is a different story. I hope he does.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. " ~Rogers Hornsby

Get Off My Mound

Follow me on Twitter! @YankeeCountry2

by Jeterian 2 on Nov 14, 2010 10:16 AM EST reply actions  

Fantastic River Ave quote haha

While we all hope for ridiculous numbers out of young Jesus… we’re not going to see them. All we can hope for is him to develop a bit this year and progress toward superstar status.

**FREE FreeBradshaw***

by Chris McKeown on Nov 14, 2010 10:46 AM EST reply actions  

If Montero starts the season in the Show

I’d expect 15-20 Home Runs with decent average and obp, but I’d figure around August he’ll start being fatigued and his production will decline rapidly. Of course if Girardi is smart he should figure out how to keep him fresh.

by andrew21 on Nov 14, 2010 11:19 AM EST reply actions  

Jesus hit like .360 in the second half in AAA. I would expect him to maybe have a period of adjustment like he did last year, but if he rebounds and hits around .300 for the second half of the year, I wouldn’t be surprised.

Montero will be our savior in 2011.

by Wraithpk on Nov 14, 2010 11:30 AM EST reply actions  

i'm predicting

.210/.240/.290 from Jesus… (that way Yankee fans will be pleasantly surprised rather than disappointed and won’t boo the barely-able-to-drink catcher).

as for the FA pitchers, Mussina only just missed the cut. he averaged 31 starts but his ERA+ was 117 rather than 120.

by Travis G on Nov 14, 2010 11:59 AM EST reply actions  

a .240 OBP would make yankee fans pleasantly surprised?

typo?

I believe in the Church of Baseball
Free FreeBradshaw!

by Frank Campagnola on Nov 14, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I think he is setting the bar ridiculously low so that Jesus will easily eclipse it.

Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com

by Lord Duggan on Nov 14, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I doubt Baby Jesus is gonna pull that off.

Which will lead to Francessa and the like saying he’s not ready and other grabage, and me throwing something through my tv at his face.

#hullbird
***FREE FreeBradshaw***

by MattF15 on Nov 14, 2010 12:01 PM EST reply actions  

Shoulda traded Jesus fo a numbah five stahtah bettah dan Jawba Chambalin. He throws hahdah in da bullpen.

And then everyone watching his show loses 10 IQ points.

Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com

by Lord Duggan on Nov 14, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Hell, I'm all for Jesus...

and I’m an atheist.

Could he lead the team back to the top of the Montero? Montero – that’s Spanish for mountain isn’t it?

by Mylegacy on Nov 14, 2010 2:52 PM EST reply actions  

According to Free Translation, Montero actually means “Hunter” which is even more badass.

Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com

by Lord Duggan on Nov 15, 2010 1:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Looking at another young catcher...
James is predicting a .285/.348/.519 for Montero, and if he did that he’d be in historic territory.

Looking at a certain other rookie catcher, that’s not an entirely unreasonable projection. Posey hit .305/.357/.505 this year. He didn’t play a full season, he was a little more polished than Montero (being a little older and a college guy), and I don’t know how well Montero will adapt to big-league pitching, but I don’t see any reason why he couldn’t put up similar numbers.

As for the ‘being in New York and expecting to win the World Series’ part… yeah, that’s a lot of pressure. But Jesus will probably be hitting eighth. If he doesn’t succeed, the rest of the lineup will pick him up. Posey was hitting cleanup most of the time, in a lineup that wasn’t necessarily going to be able to succeed if he didn’t do well.

Again, I have no idea how Montero’s temperament stacks up against Posey’s, but given his talent level, I don’t think it’s at all unlikely that he could put up numbers that good this year.

by Big Americans on Nov 15, 2010 11:37 PM EST reply actions  

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