Recapping the Red Sox
by Brandon C. on Jan 5, 2010 9:00 AM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
Email
PrintThe Boston Red Sox agreed to a one year deal with an option for a second year with Adrian Beltre last night. Later last night, we also heard from Jerry Crasnick of ESPN that the Red Sox are considering trading Mike Lowell to the Mets for Luis Castillo. The obvious question is: where would all of these newly acquired players play?
So far this offseason the Red Sox have acquired the following players: Tim Wakefield, Jeremy Hermida, Marco Scutaro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron, and Adrian Beltre.
Lets say the Red Sox don't trade Lowell for Castillo. Where would Lowell play? Would Mike Lowell really accept a possible benching? How about the outfield? Is Jeremy Hermida going to end up as a fourth-outfielder?
What if the Red Sox do acquire Castillo? Then what? Castillo certainly won't want to play off the bench, either, and it is pretty obvious that he won't be playing 2nd base in Boston, as that position is currently held by Dustin Pedroia.
The Red Sox have re-shaped their offense this offseason. Take a look at the opening day line-ups:
OPENING DAY 2009
1. Ellsbury CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Ortiz DH
4. Youkillis 1B
5. Drew RF
6. Bay LF
7. Lowell 3B
8. Lowrie SS
9. Varitek C
PROJECTED 2010 LINEUP:
1. Ellsbury CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Martinez C
4. Youkillis 1B
5. Ortiz DH
6. Beltre 3B
7. Drew RF
8. Cameron LF
9. Scutaro SS
The line-up is certainly improved. The pitching looks to be improved with the addition of John Lackey. While the Yankees are still the favorites in the AL East and the AL overall, the Red Sox are a close second.
42 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I see how the Lowell/Castillo deal makes sense for the Mets, since they lack a first baseman and Lowell could slot in nicely there.
But what would the Red Sox do with Castillo? He’s played 2,043 games a professional ballplayer, and 2,041 have been at second base. Unless the Red Sox think he can recapture the magic of his 1994 Rookie League season, where he played two games as a shortstop, I highly doubt they are considering him for utility infield duty.
My Question exactly
Spin him off to another team?
Writer for Pinstripe Alley.
"Today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of this earth."
"So I close in saying that I may have had a tough break, but I have an awful lot to live for."
There were Pedroia to SS rumors
That could be the direction they’ll go if they were to make a Lowell/Castillo trade.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
by George E. Ays on Jan 5, 2010 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Oops
Forgot they signed Scutaro.
Yeah, that doesn’t make sense then.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
by George E. Ays on Jan 5, 2010 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I’m still not sure it’s a believable rumor
Writer for Pinstripe Alley.
"Today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of this earth."
"So I close in saying that I may have had a tough break, but I have an awful lot to live for."
I think the Castillo
idea is to save money. I may be wrong, but the Sox want to dump salary and perhaps come in below the luxury tax limit. By trading Lowell (who the Sox want to dump at all costs), and finding any taker, they lose part of Lowell’s 12 million. So, say they get Castillo, then basically Beltre+Castillo cost 4 million total, while Beltre alone is 10 million. Then, Castillo at least is a decent off the bench pinch hitter/pinch runner (high OBP, totally no power and some spead).
This year is gonna be crazy. Right now, by projected WAR, both the Sox and Yankees are basically 100 win teams. The Sox may be a bit worse offensively than last year, but their defense and pitching will be much tougher. Over the last few years Cameron, Beltre, Drew, Pedroia and Youkilis have been near or at the very top of their positions by WAR, and Ellsbury’s limited numbers in LF have been great. The will also get Lackey, a full year of Dice-K and an improving Buchholz. Pen might be worse. Yankees have made a ton of good moves to improve an already great team. And the Rays are no slouch. It’s gonna be very very interesting.
it wouldnt save them money
The money would be even in such a deal. Lowell is owed $12MM in 2010, while Castillo is owed $6MM in each of the next two years. – MLBTR
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 5, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
But I think for the LT cap
it is year by year. Meaning they cannot exceed it in any year. Castillo distributes it so that it is 6 million for each of the 2 years, and in doing so they stay below (by about 1 million) the threshhold for this year. The Sox have a lot of money coming off the books after this upcoming year. I could, however, be wrong in the way the LT is applied, it is so damn complicated.
the luxury tax
is based on the average salary for players throughout their contracts. so say someone has a backloaded contract, it doesnt matter what their first year is worth or their last year, all that matters is the annual average
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 5, 2010 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
color me confused
then wouldn’t it be a 6 million difference? The life of Lowell’s contract is for 1 more year at 12 million. Castillo is an average of 6 million a year for 2 years. So…in 2010 it would be 6 mill vs 12 mill, and in 2011 it would be 6 mill vs 0 mill. However you cannot exceed in any given year. 12 million puts the Sox over. 6 million does not. In 2011 the Sox are way under as of now, so the extra 6 in that year is not an issue. Is that not the way it is done?
It would in a way
It would give them $6 mil more to spend in 2010, although it would give them $6 mil less to spend in 2011. But maybe they figure with other money they have coming off the books in 2011 they’d be less pressed up against the luxury tax.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 5, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
Scutaro
They signed Scutaro
Writer for Pinstripe Alley.
"Today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of this earth."
"So I close in saying that I may have had a tough break, but I have an awful lot to live for."
Prediction
Lowell sees time at DH (platoon with Ortiz- especially if Ortiz has another slow start) and backs up 1B and 3B once a week. Youk can play 3B or LF on days Lowell is at 1st.
Also, I expect Cameron in center because he has the better arm and (probably) better range.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Is it just me
or does Theo look like he wants Marcos cock in that pic.
Anyone who mentions salary caps as an answer is unemployed. Say Hello to my little friend,Al Pacino-Scarface
by cashman bashman on Jan 5, 2010 10:45 AM EST reply actions
They're starting to resemble
the Yankees of the late 80’s and early 90’s, signing a bunch of older pieces who just don’t seem to fit. Their pitching will be good.
It’s also worth noting that every single player who’s ever suffered a fractured testicle on the field has played for the Red Sox.
That’s the new curse of the Bambino. Maybe we’ll call it the Ball-bino.
Granted, Adrian Beltre was the only guy that ever happened to, but it still sounds bad….
Didnt Eric Davis get one in the pills years ago.
Anyone who mentions salary caps as an answer is unemployed. Say Hello to my little friend,Al Pacino-Scarface
by cashman bashman on Jan 5, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
how so?
Beltre is 30 (much younger than Lowell). Lackey is younger than Vazquez or Burnett or Pettitte. Cameron and Scutaro are 2 year deals and the Sox have a lot of OF depth in the system (Westmoreland, Kalish, Reddick). Thus, Cameron is a stopgap, and to some degree Scutaro is because the Sox want to see if Lowrie can stay healthy. The Sox are younger than the Yankees (all infield positions except 1b where Teix is marginally younger than Youkilis), catcher, Ellsbury is a tad younger than Gardner (and a whole lot younger than Damon). Swisher/Granderson are a fair bit younger than Drew/Cameron. So basically the Sox are younger at 5 positions. As for pitching, the Sox starters average much younger-Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Dice-K, Buchholz average to be 28 with Lackey the oldest at 31. The Yankees rotation averages 31 (the same age as the Sox oldest starter) and have 3 guys 33 or older with Pettitte 37.
While the Yankees are still probably a bit better, all of the Sox moves have made sense. They have systematically improved their run prevention via pitching and defense while basically maintaining their offense, and not signing the older guys past 2 years.
If you incude Wakefield, the Sox average age goes up to like 42 or something
So HA!
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
Eh
They certainly have cornered the market on ugly. Congrats, Beantown. See you in the playoffs, mofos.
"I'm just tryin' to be the great, tryin' to get a piece of cake
Take it offa your plate, eat it right in your face" --Lil Wayne
no question.
Even as a Sox fan it is going to be damn hard watching Lackey on the mound. And we already had Youkilis…
Lowell to the Mets?
that won’t help them much. Lowell is helped a ton by that stupid wall. Put him in Citi Field where the walls are a mile away, and watch him revert to his old form with the Marlins.
And Castillo with the Sox? I’d like to see that.
“Castillo….. DROPPED THE BALL!!!!! HE DROPPED THE BALL!!!!!”
Michael Kay
One of my favorite regular season games. The heartbreak on the Mets fans after that was hilarious!!! Although seriously, Castillo won’t have anywhere to play if he’s on the Sox.
The Red Sox sure are better, but the Yankees are better than them still. I’d say equal rotations. The Yankees blow them away with their bats. And the Yankees have the best closer of all time. The Yankees (unless you are talking to Skip Bayless) are, once again, the favorite to win the AL East.
It's strange to see...
the Red Sox building around pitching and defense. The lineup they’ll be fielding in 2010 is NOT a classic Boston Red Sox lineup, but at the same time they have the best starting rotation in baseball on paper and they have a very good to great defender at every position except catcher.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 5, 2010 8:48 PM EST reply actions
while true
that it is not a classic Sox lineup, they might not have some of the “automatic outs” the Sox have had in recent times (Varitek of 08/09, Nick Green, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp of 07…). This depends of course on how Beltre hits (awful in 09) as well as if Cameron can keep up what he has done for the last few years. By projections (never close to a sure bet) the Sox should still score as much as they did from 07-09. Interestingly, it is possibly the polar opposite of the 06 team that had two monsterous years from Ortiz/Ramirez (both over 160 OPS+) and absolutely nothing else. That team scored fewer runs than any Sox team since 2001.
I think the Yankee rotation is better actually
CC>Lester- They are both great, but CCs durability and his ability to pitch 235-250 innings a year gives him the edge in my book.
Burnett<Beckett- Both are dominant when on, but Beckett is a bit more consistent.
Pettitte=Lackey- Lackey is very good, but Pettitte is not bad either. Pettitte is one of the best big game pitchers in baseball. He stays healthy- something Lackey sometimes struggles to do. Pettitte gives more length as well. However, Lackey is more dominant when on (see Game 5, 2009 ALCS), and that gives him some points. Plus he’s younger. I’d say they’re even. Lackey may have a small edge, but I’d say even.
Vasquez>Buchholz- Vasquez is a borderline ace. He had a better ERA than any pitcher on the Yankees staff last year. Buchholz is unproven.
Joba=Matzusaka- I’d say they’re even because neither team is sure what they are going to get out of either of them. Joba was awful the last time he started. Dice-K hardly pitched last year. Both are coming back healthy. We’ll see what happens.
Overall, they are very close, but I actually think that, because of the addition of Vasquez, if he pitches like he’s capable of, then the Yankees may actually have the better rotation. Pitching wise these teams are very close to even. The Yankees lineup has the edge though, and thats why they’ll have the edge going into the season.
Beckett
was as consistent as Burnett last year……..
they still have Papelbum….? I thought they were going to do something when he said he didn’t care that he blew the game for them
by Gangsta Yanksta on Jan 5, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
Wasnt beckett hurt last year?.....No?.....
The red sox said pedroia desires to play ss…..W/e…..
They’re still not taking the AL East back..let along the Chip….
-Announcemen Forwarded To The Following: Boston Blowsox, New York Pets, Philadelphia Phonies, And Any Other Team Who Ain't The With The Empire.................
Getcha' Fuccin Rings Up........
by NYYWinsRings27 on Jan 6, 2010 12:38 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Alone...*
-Announcemen Forwarded To The Following: Boston Blowsox, New York Pets, Philadelphia Phonies, And Any Other Team Who Ain't The With The Empire.................
Getcha' Fuccin Rings Up........
by NYYWinsRings27 on Jan 6, 2010 12:38 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
at this stage
the Sox are a significantly better fielding team. The only other teams close are the Rays and Seattle. This means that the Sox will prevent significantly more runs than the Yankees regardless of what you think the pitching ability is (and you are correct, it is close). Last year already this was true-the Sox allowed 736 runs to the Yankees 753. This year the Sox have massively upgraded their defense at 4 positions (including the 3 most important ones) and added Lackey and get Dice-K back. The Yankees have upgraded their defense in LF (the least important position) and acquired Vazquez. So it is easy to see that the gap in runs allowed will grow, perhaps significantly. In fact, the Sox had the best AL ERA in the first half. In the second half they lost Wakefield and did not have Dice-K, and the team ERA went up by almost one run because they relied on Smoltz, Penny, Tazawa…I would not be surprised if the Sox only allow 650 runs this year. Last year the Yankees only scored 42 more total runs than the Sox. The gap should be about the same. That likely means the Sox will have a better run differential, and a better run differential usually (but not always) means more wins.
Except that..
While the Red Sox should allow less runs they should also score less. Even though they’ll have V-Mart for a full season, and Ortiz presumably won’t have as bad a first half, they’re still replacing Jason Bay with Mike Cameron and Mike Lowell (who hit when he played last year) with Adrian Beltre (who’s had a .800 OPS once in the last 5 years).
Meanwhile the Yankees assuming they make no move for a LF should score slightly fewer runs than last year, however they, too should allow less runs, if only because they hopefully won’t be getting 21 starts of legendary ineffectiveness from Wang and Mitre. So while the Red Sox have a better rotation, the gap between the two lineups has gotten bigger so I wouldn’t expect the run differential to flip.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 6, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Not true.
You should go over to OTM and look at the analysis. Again future performance is hard to predict, but here is how a projection would predict it to be. Ignoring what players last year did (eg Ortiz and his bad and good months, etc) there are basically 4 new players to consider: C, SS, CF and 3b. All projections have Beltre/Lowell a wash-in part because Lowell actually was not that good, and because he missed a ton of time. His line last year in limited time was worse than Beltre’s 06-07-08 road lines. It is a wash. Scutaro is a 10-20 run upgrade over the completely random slop the Sox put on the field in 09, even if he does not come at all close to what he did last year. Projections have him as a 12 run upgrade. VMart is a 10 run upgrade over Tek, if only becuse Tek was decent in the first half. This means you wan’t to compare Cameron+22 runs to Bay. Bay is predicted to create 105 runs next year. Cameron is predicted to be 75 (he has been 82, 71, 84 over the last 3 years). That is a net loss of 8 runs from last year, without adjusting for the good hitting confines of park, etc.
Of course this comes with big ifs-can Cameron keep it up at 37? Can Beltre hit like he did in 06-08 and not 09? But the same can be said for the Yankees-can Arod, Jeter, Pettitte, and Mariano all perform like last year? The are all 35 or older. Who knows…
Hey Buzzy
You are a Sox fan I assume? The stats are what they are, the Yankees have the better team. We have a team that won the championship, improved. I dont feel the additions of Cameron and Scutaro mean anything, the only significant move they made was Lackey. Beltre since coming off steroids has not been good, and I highly doubt that will change this year. Sorry to tell ya buddy, you guys are slightly behind us this year, again.
Yes
I am a sox fan. Have posted here occasionaly for a few years. I think your conclusion (overall) is not incorrect-they Yankees might have an ever-so-slightly better team. I think the Yankees made good moves this off-season. The Granderson move (except that you will hate how he hits lefties), the Johnson and the Vazquez moves were all good. Hoever you don’t really understand the logic of the Sox moves. In some ways the Lackey move was the worst, because it cost a lot in year and $$, and he is not that great a pitcher. He will help in the short run for sure. What you (like many traditional fans) don’t properly appreciate is the value of good defense, and I am not talking about errors. That is how the Rays got to the WS in 2008 while only scoring 780 runs. Run prevention matters more for good teams than runs do. The 2007 Sox won the series and were the clear best team in baseball that year because of run prevention-653 runs allowed. Beltre’s value is in his glove, not his bat. He may be among the best fielding 3b ever, and is certainly the best 3b since UZR was introduced. Any offense he gives is a plus. The combination of Cameron’s bat and glove and position make him more valuable than Jason Bay, despite being much much cheaper. Signing Cameron allows Ellsbury to play left, where in limited time he has been an elite fielder, while in 09 he was among the worst fielding CFs in baseball. These would be good things to learn about. If you don’t get it yet, check back when the season is over and reconsider.
BTW
one thing that cracks me up is how traditionalist fans deride modern statistical analysis and yeat the best teams and GMs are the ones that use it. Cashman has learned this (while Torre stupidly called him a “stat head” in his book) and that is why he made the Swisher, Granderson, Johnson, Vazquez and Teixiera moves. The Sox and Epstien have been very successful doing this, and the Rays too with their limited payroll, while teams like KC (Moore), the Mets (Minaya) and SF (Sabean) don’t get it-it is why their teams such big time every year. The moves the Sox have made are completely in line with the winning philosophy that has helped the best teams be better than the rest. And you will now see the same thing in Seattle where a good new GM has already made a bunch of these moves. Let’s see who wins the west.
Here is a “modern” stat for you-WAR (wins above replacement). If you take the WAR all the players on a team, and add it to 42 (the number of wins provided by a team of replacement players) that is an estimate of a teams wins. Last year, if you do it for the Sox and the Yankees you will fin that it was a very good predictor of the W-L, for example the Sox had a War W-L of 93.7 and 95 real wins. By projections of WAR, after the moves the Sox and Yankees have made, the Yankees project to be 101 wins, the Sox 100. And the Sox have improved more in the offseason. Let’s see how it plays out.
Recapping
The reason that the season is actually played, besides allowing beer ads to be televised, is (per Yogi) that it’s hard to make predictions- especially about the future.
Older players- Pettitte, Ortiz, A-Rod, Cameron, to name a few, can lose it all at once. Rookies can perform well above expectations, players can have injuries, and new players may not be able to handle playing in a big market like New York or Boston. Similarly, July trades can turn the first half results on their heads. That’s why I read this stuff for laughs and then forget it ten minutes later.
What were the SABR- type predictions for wins for 2009 based on the 2008 performances? I suspect they were utter garbage.
by designatedquitter on Jan 6, 2010 12:05 PM EST reply actions
really?
they pegged the Yankees as the best team in baseball. And in 08 they pegged the Rays for one of the biggest single season improvements in recent history…and everyone laughed. You are correct that you can’t predict injury, and declines are hard to gauge, but come on now.
Buzzy- yes really
I Binged (it’s better than Google) SABR predictions for 2009. (United Leagues.net was the result). The SABR predictions, expressed as votes by participants, for last season were BOS 215, NYY 115, TB 42. The PLAYER (whatever that means) predictions were BOS 105, NY 103. The plurality had the Red Sox as World Series champs.
My recollection is that with Matsuzaka, Penny, and Smoltz the Red Sox’ chief problem was going to be finding slots in the rotation for all their excess pitching talent. I don’t remember Nick Green or Alex Gonzalez coming up in the analysis of shortstop. Many people felt that Jason Varitek’s numbers would bounce back somewhat from his poor 2008 season, and Victor Martinez was not even a gleam in anyone’s eye.
Likewise, no one foresaw Phil Hughes becoming the 8th inning set- up man, nor was the emergence of David Robertson prominent in any preseason discussions that I can recall. Nick Swisher was going to be a placeholder firstbaseman pre Teixeira signing and midseason trade bait afterwards.
If sabermetric analysis accounted for any of this in March ’09, then I tip my hat to it.
by designatedquitter on Jan 7, 2010 12:16 PM EST reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Community Guidelines
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Photo: Padres fan regrets letting mother capture moment with Trevor Hoffman
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
