Yankees Notes: Winn, Damon, Projections
by Brandon C. on Jan 29, 2010 5:00 AM EST
in News
35 comments
Let's check out what has been said around Yankee Universe lately:
-Bronx Baseball Daily talks to a couple of Giants bloggers about Randy Winn.
-Josh Alper argues that the Yankees are definitely Brian Cashman's team now.
-Pecota is predicting that the Yankees will come in 3rd place this season.
-TYU has the transcript and the video from Brian Cashman's appearance on the YES Hot Stove Show.
-Jim Edmonds has signed with the Brewers, but Rocco Baldelli is still available.
-Apparently the Yankees are still somewhat interested in Baldelli, as well as Marcus Thames, and Johnny Gomes.
-The Brandon Laird situation has apparently worsened.
-We are planning an interview for Frankie Piliere (minor-league guru) so if you have any questions send them to the official PA e-mail address!
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The beasts are in the east
I thought it was gonna be a 3 team race
Why is it
That the Yankees are always predicted to be third now? No love.
predicted to be third now?
1949-53 the Yanks were never the preseason favorite. In ‘54 they were and finished second, with more wins then in any of the five previous pennant winning years. Don’t let the predictions concern you, it is the games on the field that matter.
PECOTA had them last year
as the Wild Card team.
Is it all that ridiculous to think that some people might like the Rays and Sox more? No one’s denying that the Yankees are an elite team.
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
those rankings make no sense
how do the yankees lead the AL East in Runs score, batting average, OBP, and only win 93 games? I dont see the Rays rebounding to 2008 form either.
I mean sure, Bostons pitching is a bit stronger, but i would project the yankees for 97-98 wins, Boston for 95-96 wins, Rays for low 90s, high 80s if anything. No way the yankees win 10 less games this year than last year
on closer observation
they make even less sense
-three 90 game winners and they are ALL in the AL East?
-Nationals winning 82 games????
-Only one team winning less than 70 games (KC)???
- Marlins plunging to the NL East cellar?
It just doesnt make much logical sense to me, but i guess thats why im stuck in a cubicle every day
Depth Charts
The way BP does their predictions is by projecting all the individual players, guessing at playing time and then essentially calculating what a team of that calibre is likely to win when compared to the teams they’ll play.
So if you disagree with the predictions, you should point to players you think are over or under projected. The Yankees are expected to win less based on regression by Jeter and smaller drops by a few other players coupled with the loss of a near career season by Damon. Mostly it’s pitching though. They expect Pettitte to start hitting a wall and others in the rotation to regress from last season too. On the other hand, for some reason, Pecota loves boston pitchers. Especially their top three.
The nationals’ number is primarily based on the expectation that a full season of Strasburg will do wonders. That and the fact that they were incredibly unlucky last year. The reason for so few really bad or really good teams is because these are essentially over under numbers. Like top home run hitters. Someone will hit near 50 hr next year but you can’t peg any individual at 50. Instead, you get a number of top hitters in the 35-40 range.
Those projections are a joke
I mean, I know that the Angels had a bit of a rough offseason, but seriously, does ANYONE think that they are coming the last, and the A’s are WINNING the division? Nationals winning 82 games? Yankees completely missing the playoffs? These projections really are ridiculous.
I’d love for the Yankees to make a run at one of the OF still available. Obviously Johnny Damon is out of the mix now, but I still think that Baldelli, Reed Johnson, Dye, Thames, and Gomes are all potentially better than Randy Winn is. Maybe sign one more, and have Gardner, Winn, another OF, and Hoffman compete for the LF job, with the top two platooning and the other two in the minor leagues? I could live with that. I’d rather have Damon, but, thats not an option now.
Baldelli/Johnson
Would be a better platoon with Gardner than Winn
Not set in stone.
Thats why we play the game, But I’ve been saying it will be a three team race and I think Bos will take the Div.
NY-I Expect some drop from Jeter (had a great 09), Posada and a drop from what Damon and Matsui gave to what Granderson and Johnson will give. Arods the only one I see improving over last yr. Pettitte may lose a little & Vazquez’s AL #’s are more in line to what should be expected.
Bos- Top 3 starters should be highly regarded. Beckett & Lackey are proven Aces and Lester has surpassed both of them. Their Def could be crazy good and their Off with be as good as last yr.
TB- 08 wasnt a fluke thay are solid all the way around Off, Def, pitching. Very good young talent that could take it all
Sox offense won't be as good as last year
I think the loss of Jason Bay will hurt them. I mean, didn’t they replace him with Mike Cameron? Thats a big drop between them offensively. Plus, Ortiz is just getting worse.
It’ll be close. Thats for sure. Thats why I wanted Damon back so much. It would have widened that gap a little between the Yanks and the rest of the division.
Cameron wont replace Bay's bat
Combination of things will: Pedroia slipped last yr and @ 26 should rebound to 09 #‘s
Martinez all yr takes away AB’s from Veratek who was horrible
Ortiz may or not be done, But from Jun 1 on he lead the AL in HR’s and RBI
Beltre hurt last year but has been real consistant b4 that 25 hr 3 years with sea. Away from sea hit much better. In fenway in contact year. Scutaro is better then the mess they had at SS last yr.
Look at it this way dude
Yeah they didn’t bring Damon back but it leaves a little more room for a deal at the break when you know for sure what you need.Would Damon help?YES but could they get a player later through a trade with more impact?It is definetly possible.Two recent good trades bring Swish and Granderson.And atleast this way they will get a real idea what GGBG is capable of,good or bad there should be an answer of some sort on Gardner.Remember if McDaniels numbers on Brett are achieved i’m buying him a Hooker.And a good one to.
I feel like a clown without my funny nose
by cashman bashman on Jan 29, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
Boston definitelly isn't better than the Yanks
It’d be nice to argue who upgraded more, but we won that division by 8 games, even with the 0-8 start against the Sox and the not so good early months. Cashman knows we’d be favorites, even by keeping this team. We upgraded, got ourselves a CF for the future, and most importantly did it within our budget so we can be major players in next year’s offseason. Can’t wait to see Crawford in pinstripes.
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
How is that relevant?
It’d be nice to argue who upgraded more, but we won that division by 8 games, even with the 0-8 start against the Sox and the not so good early months.
That was in 2009. These projections are for 2010. 2009 doesn’t matter anymore, when it comes to that stuff. Both the 8-0 start for Boston and 9-1 finish for the NY are unlikely to happen again, so why is it relevant?
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
it is relevant because
we have upgraded out starting pitching with Vazquez and defense with Granderson.
Oh yeah Florida sucks.
Gardner for President
"we have upgraded out starting pitching with Vazquez and defense with Granderson."
Yes.
And also downgraded the offense.
Is that some sort of ridiculous comment? I’ve never disagreed with those who say the pitching and defense are better.
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree
I think our offense will be better.
I would rather have Granderson and Johnson for this coming year than Matsui and Damon.
I know you disagree with me regarding the offense and we will see in a few months.
Gardner for President
Matsui and Damon
are both very possible candidates to have years where they hit a sharp decline. This is the exact reason why I have no problem with letting Matsui go. His knees are a ticking time bomb. When they go, they’ll go. All things equal, Matsui > Johnson and the Yankees opt to keep Matsui, but they couldn’t do things like that. Matsui signed early.
I will offer a single retraction from my previous claims, and that’s that it would appear even 1/6 didn’t suit Damon, if that offer was actually proposed to Damon. Damon has no market, so the fact that he’s still holding out for as much as he can get is ridiculous. There are three keys for any team that wants him:
Interest, finances, and need.
The Yankees were the only team I saw that fit all three. Detroit? No. Atlanta? No. Cincinnati? No. Oakland? No.
Rays?
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
Even if I am a "Damon lover"
at least I’m not taking it to these levels of douchbaggery (h/t RAB).
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
After reading the projections for next year,
I can’t really take the whole thing seriously. Aside from us finishing 3rd, the Nationals are 3rd in their division, the Giants are finishing after the Diamondbacks with the Rockies after them, and Oakland is winning the AL West. Did this guy follow the Majors last year or did he randomly pick the teams?
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
Just to pile on
It’s a joke. I don’t see the Rays winning more games with no signficant roster additions outside of Rafael Soriano – unless you think Pat Burrell will improve at 33.
Chalk at bugsandcranks.com seems dumb enough to buy in it though:
http://www.bugsandcranks.com/davidchalk/baseball/you-pecota-be-exactly-right-this-time/
Rays are for real
Not saying they will win, But they shouldnt be overlooked. Burrell should improve over last yr.
Upton should def improve. 2 young pitches Price/Davis could be very good. Shields/Garza already real good. Crawford/Longoria/Zoberist/Bartlett/Pena (Spelled some wrong) Pretty good team
Grateful for the Brandon Laird update inasmuch as:
1) I didn’t know who Brandon Laird is; and
2) I didn’t know there was a situation.
Why is this important to Yankees fans?
by designatedquitter on Jan 29, 2010 2:19 PM EST reply actions
Yankees Highly-Touted Prospect
Well known scuffle at a Suns game.
Writer for Pinstripe Alley.
"Today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of this earth."
"So I close in saying that I may have had a tough break, but I have an awful lot to live for."
My biggest problem
with those projections are that the Nats are slated at 82-80, and the Angels at 76-86.
And I wouldn’t take the projections for the standings all that seriously. The three teams are separated by 3 games. In other words, they are pretty damn closely matched.
So a projection system doesn’t have the Yankees winning the division. Who frigging cares.
Cairo Prediction just came out
Has NY winning div with102 win, Bos WC
Hard to envision any team in this division winning 100+
but then again, the Yankees did that just last year.
Yanks/Sox seems to be the conventional picking. Which is why I’m taking a combo with the Rays. Contrarian train of thought.
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
Cairo
Cairo has NY giving up less Runs than both Bos & TB. With Bos Pitching & Def I dont see that happening. Same could be said for TB. NY scoring more runs, fine. I think its a tight 3 tm race.
TB- Burrell & Upton should be better. Bartlett,Crawford,Longoria,Pena,Zobrist. thats 7 pretty good offensive players. Their Defense & Pitching are pretty good to. They could surprise both NY & Bos
Is Pecota personally going to injure players ?
because that is the only way they finish 3rd.I mean cmon,Boston has a good team but the Rays are never going to overachieve and all have career yrs again.That is why it is called a career yr.I’m not saying they suck but they are going to need a whole lot of things to go rite to jump the Yanks and Sox this yr.
I feel like a clown without my funny nose
by cashman bashman on Jan 29, 2010 10:28 PM EST reply actions
These projections are a complete joke.
All you have to do is look at where they put the Angels and the A’s and that will show you how ridiculous this is.
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