Yankees Notes: Winn, Damon, Projections

by Brandon C. on Jan 29, 2010 5:00 AM EST in New York Yankees News

Let's check out what has been said around Yankee Universe lately:

-Bronx Baseball Daily talks to a couple of Giants bloggers about Randy Winn.

-Josh Alper argues that the Yankees are definitely Brian Cashman's team now.

-Pecota is predicting that the Yankees will come in 3rd place this season.

-TYU has the transcript and the video from Brian Cashman's appearance on the YES Hot Stove Show.

-Jim Edmonds has signed with the Brewers, but Rocco Baldelli is still available.

-Apparently the Yankees are still somewhat interested in Baldelli, as well as Marcus Thames, and Johnny Gomes.

-The Brandon Laird situation has apparently worsened.

-We are planning an interview for Frankie Piliere (minor-league guru) so if you have any questions send them to the official PA e-mail address!

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Why is it

That the Yankees are always predicted to be third now? No love.

by DarthRichter on Jan 29, 2010 7:39 AM EST reply actions

1949-53 the Yanks were never the preseason favorite. In ‘54 they were and finished second, with more wins then in any of the five previous pennant winning years. Don’t let the predictions concern you, it is the games on the field that matter.

by RobertG on Jan 29, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

PECOTA had them last year

as the Wild Card team.

Is it all that ridiculous to think that some people might like the Rays and Sox more? No one’s denying that the Yankees are an elite team.

by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

those rankings make no sense

how do the yankees lead the AL East in Runs score, batting average, OBP, and only win 93 games? I dont see the Rays rebounding to 2008 form either.

I mean sure, Bostons pitching is a bit stronger, but i would project the yankees for 97-98 wins, Boston for 95-96 wins, Rays for low 90s, high 80s if anything. No way the yankees win 10 less games this year than last year

by GriffMan on Jan 29, 2010 7:39 AM EST reply actions

on closer observation

they make even less sense

-three 90 game winners and they are ALL in the AL East?

-Nationals winning 82 games????

-Only one team winning less than 70 games (KC)???

- Marlins plunging to the NL East cellar?

It just doesnt make much logical sense to me, but i guess thats why im stuck in a cubicle every day

by GriffMan on Jan 29, 2010 7:54 AM EST up reply actions

Depth Charts

The way BP does their predictions is by projecting all the individual players, guessing at playing time and then essentially calculating what a team of that calibre is likely to win when compared to the teams they’ll play.

So if you disagree with the predictions, you should point to players you think are over or under projected. The Yankees are expected to win less based on regression by Jeter and smaller drops by a few other players coupled with the loss of a near career season by Damon. Mostly it’s pitching though. They expect Pettitte to start hitting a wall and others in the rotation to regress from last season too. On the other hand, for some reason, Pecota loves boston pitchers. Especially their top three.

The nationals’ number is primarily based on the expectation that a full season of Strasburg will do wonders. That and the fact that they were incredibly unlucky last year. The reason for so few really bad or really good teams is because these are essentially over under numbers. Like top home run hitters. Someone will hit near 50 hr next year but you can’t peg any individual at 50. Instead, you get a number of top hitters in the 35-40 range.

by metric on Jan 29, 2010 8:47 AM EST up reply actions

What is Pettitte's projection anyway?

Mid 5 ERA?

by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

Those projections are a joke

I mean, I know that the Angels had a bit of a rough offseason, but seriously, does ANYONE think that they are coming the last, and the A’s are WINNING the division? Nationals winning 82 games? Yankees completely missing the playoffs? These projections really are ridiculous.

I’d love for the Yankees to make a run at one of the OF still available. Obviously Johnny Damon is out of the mix now, but I still think that Baldelli, Reed Johnson, Dye, Thames, and Gomes are all potentially better than Randy Winn is. Maybe sign one more, and have Gardner, Winn, another OF, and Hoffman compete for the LF job, with the top two platooning and the other two in the minor leagues? I could live with that. I’d rather have Damon, but, thats not an option now.

by nyyrocks29 on Jan 29, 2010 9:07 AM EST reply actions

Boston definitelly isn't better than the Yanks

It’d be nice to argue who upgraded more, but we won that division by 8 games, even with the 0-8 start against the Sox and the not so good early months. Cashman knows we’d be favorites, even by keeping this team. We upgraded, got ourselves a CF for the future, and most importantly did it within our budget so we can be major players in next year’s offseason. Can’t wait to see Crawford in pinstripes.

I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.

Vince Lombardi

by moose35 on Jan 29, 2010 9:59 AM EST reply actions

How is that relevant?

It’d be nice to argue who upgraded more, but we won that division by 8 games, even with the 0-8 start against the Sox and the not so good early months.

That was in 2009. These projections are for 2010. 2009 doesn’t matter anymore, when it comes to that stuff. Both the 8-0 start for Boston and 9-1 finish for the NY are unlikely to happen again, so why is it relevant?

by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

After reading the projections for next year,

I can’t really take the whole thing seriously. Aside from us finishing 3rd, the Nationals are 3rd in their division, the Giants are finishing after the Diamondbacks with the Rockies after them, and Oakland is winning the AL West. Did this guy follow the Majors last year or did he randomly pick the teams?

Vince Lombardi

by moose35 on Jan 29, 2010 10:03 AM EST reply actions

Just to pile on

It’s a joke. I don’t see the Rays winning more games with no signficant roster additions outside of Rafael Soriano – unless you think Pat Burrell will improve at 33.

Chalk at bugsandcranks.com seems dumb enough to buy in it though:
http://www.bugsandcranks.com/davidchalk/baseball/you-pecota-be-exactly-right-this-time/

by coops2001 on Jan 29, 2010 12:04 PM EST reply actions

Grateful for the Brandon Laird update inasmuch as:

1) I didn’t know who Brandon Laird is; and
2) I didn’t know there was a situation.

Why is this important to Yankees fans?

by designatedquitter on Jan 29, 2010 2:19 PM EST reply actions

Yankees Highly-Touted Prospect

Well known scuffle at a Suns game.

Writer for Pinstripe Alley.
"Today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of this earth."
"So I close in saying that I may have had a tough break, but I have an awful lot to live for."

by Brandon C. on Jan 29, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

My biggest problem

with those projections are that the Nats are slated at 82-80, and the Angels at 76-86.

And I wouldn’t take the projections for the standings all that seriously. The three teams are separated by 3 games. In other words, they are pretty damn closely matched.

So a projection system doesn’t have the Yankees winning the division. Who frigging cares.

by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 2:59 PM EST reply actions

Is Pecota personally going to injure players ?

because that is the only way they finish 3rd.I mean cmon,Boston has a good team but the Rays are never going to overachieve and all have career yrs again.That is why it is called a career yr.I’m not saying they suck but they are going to need a whole lot of things to go rite to jump the Yanks and Sox this yr.

I feel like a clown without my funny nose

by cashman bashman on Jan 29, 2010 10:28 PM EST reply actions