Money Makes an Offseason
by jscape2000 on Jan 29, 2010 11:00 AM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintI was poking around my three favorite sites (Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and Cot's Contracts) while thinking about the Yankees' offseason.
The 2010 WAR and Value are based on the Chone projections.
| Granderson | Winn | Johnson | Damon | Matsui | Melky | |
| 2009 WAR | 3.4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 2010 WAR | 4.4 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 3.4 |
| 2009 Salary | $3.5M | $8.25M | $5.5M | $13M | $13M | $3.1M |
| 2010 Salary | $5.5M | $2M | $5.75M+$1M | ? | $6M | $1.4M |
| 2010 Value | $19.9M | $3.6M | $9.8M | $14.5M | $4.7M | $15.1M |
| Age | 29 | 36 | 31 | 36 | 36 | 25 |
Chone sees a big rebound for Granderson. It's Melky project is off the charts: 2009 was a career high in value, and it calls for him to double that production. The projection system is also confused by Johnny Damon because his numbers have improved the last three years. Winn posted a 1.7 last season when he was awful- to be worth only .8 wins in 2010 he would have to be putrid, then cut in June.
The non-Yankee trio contributed 7 wins to the championship season, and they are projected for 7.7 wins next season. The newcomers gave 7.5 wins to their teams last season, and are projected for 7.4 wins this season. I think our guys will collectively beat their projects, and I'll be stunned if the other 3 meet theirs.
For value, it's not as big a drop off as people want to make the change in personnel out to be.
Now, about the money.
Assuming Johnson hits all of his incentives (the first comes at 400PA), for a little more than the cost of 2009 Hideki Matsui, the Yankees brought in 3 players. In fairness, it cost them Phil Coke and Austin Jackson, too.
CC's contract went up $9M. Jeter's went up $1M. Cano went up $3M. Swisher went up $1.5M. That's the 2009 cost of Melky and Damon.
The nationally overlooked move of the offseason belongs to the Yankees, though. With all the ink spilled about Halladay and Lee, Holiday and Bay, Matsui and Damon, I don't think enough attention has been paid to the addition of Javy Vazquez ($11.5M) for Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. For the price of hope and spare parts, the Yankees acquired a pitcher who averaged 5.5 WAR over the last 3 seasons.
The important part of that is that Vazquez is not a replacement, he's an addition. Remember in September talk of would you start Aceves, Guadin, Joba or Hughes in the postseason? That's done.
I would have enjoyed having Damon or Matsui back- they are both incredible hitters. But the Yankees got younger, cheaper and better this off-season. I can't help being happy with that.
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Didn’t you see? The Yankees aren’t making the playoffs this year.
Gotta love Baseball Prospectus...
…here’s some of their projections from 2009:
AL Division winners: Boston, Cleveland, Oakland
NL Division winners: Mets, Cubs, D’backs
http://newyorksportsjerk.blogspot.com/
by New York Sports Jerk on Jan 29, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
To be honest,
I also thought the Mets were going to totally rock out in ’09.
by YankeesPWNu on Jan 29, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Why?
The Phillies were always better. The Mets rotation last year wasn’t all that good to begin with. Johan and then…Pelfrey was supposed to be good, but that never happened. I can barely recall anyone else outside those two.
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
OIiver Perez, John Maine, and Livan Hernandez. Perez was noneffective and I think he got injured, and Maine got injured too. They were supposed to be a pretty good rotation, though, and offensively they were expected to be very good. I expected them to make the playoffs at least.
Oliver Perez
there’s someone I completely forgot about. Good Lord, he was awful in ’09.
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 29, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
And we’re primed up to make a big splash in next year’s offseason. This offseason was all about staying #1 while cutting costs and getting ready for next year. Cashman did that magnificently.
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
Souldn't Melky's 2009 and 2010 salary be switched?
I don’t think he took a pay cut
by Monotonousblob on Jan 29, 2010 12:16 PM EST reply actions
Yea
The numbers are switched. The Yankees are paying $500k of his $3.1M this year, though.
by YankeesPWNu on Jan 29, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
2010
AL: Yankees, Twins, Mariners…WC Boston
NL: Phillies, Cardinals, Giants…WC Dodgers
Let it be known I picked the every team correctly last year. “Thank you, thank you very much”. Also let it be known that was the first time ever.
Agreed
I agree with your picks, but watch out for the resurgence of the Red Sox. Their pitching this year will be wicked, and pitching wins games. Plus, the Yankees are losing Damon and Godzilla who between them generated some 300 runs in 2009, and that will be hard to replace.
Plus I think that their
pitchers are going to benefit from a better fielding Red Sox team next season.
Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.
by Edwantsacracker on Jan 29, 2010 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
Freddy's 2010
AL East: Yankees, still think Red Sox are gonna be right in it till the end, Red Sox will typically lead the league in the first half then lose in the second half and make the wild card.
AL Central: i got the White Sox, nobody’s talking about that rotation with a full year of Peavy.
AL West: Angels. I still think they have too much hitting for the Mariners, and still have enough pitching even though they lost Lackey.
NL East: Phillies. Too easy.
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: I got the Rockies, they were the best team in the NL last year once that new coach got in and i think it’ll continue unless SF gets some sort of bat (Damon)
My WC will be the Cubs surprising everyone with their stars coming back to their avg.
LOL!
“Chone”.
You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you are going, because you might not get there
to be honest
I think the team is a lot weaker hitting-wise this season and they will need mind-blowing performances from a few of the hitters to have a season like last season. Nick Johnson, just like it says there, is not going to be as good this year as Melky Cabrera, let alone Matsui whom he is getting paid the same amount of money as to replace. Then he’ll get injured and hurt the team morale, possibly leading to other injuries etc. and so forth and all of a sudden it’s the Mets.
No matter what any of you are saying, the truth is that Cashman is gambling the improved pitching and defense will fill in for the OBVIOUSLY (no matter what sabre mathamagicians tell me) weaker hitting until he can get Carl Crawford next year.
In long term thinking, Cashman is probably right, and I’d probably take the same gamble were I in his shoes. But the rose-colored glasses about this lineup being the equal of 2009 seems a bit absurd to me, I’m sorry. I hope you’re right and that Nick Johnson’s walks and singles in April and May before his season-ending injury are truly the equal of last year’s World Series MVP. I would love for you to be right. I’ll cheer for the Yankees anyway. Hell, I cheered them in 1990. You know what I’m saying.
It's January
And we’re all just filling in time until pitchers and catchers report.
I can credibly say the team will be weaker, because they’ve lost power with Damon and Matsui gone and another year on the bats of Jeter & Posada. I can equally as credibly argue that they will be stronger offensively with Grand Central rebounding to his career norms AND taking advantage of the same right field porch that made a power threat out of JD in the twilight of his career, a full season of a healthy (and confident) A-Rod bringing both his and Tex’s stats up and with Nick Johnson scoring 100+ runs in a full season because he will be sheltered from injury at the DH spot, and Cervelli instead of “automatic out” Molina at the 2nd catcher spot.
I think the stats of the lineup are more likely than not to be better this year, although obviously we’re all guessing at this point. By and large I like Cashman’s moves, and you can’t be afraid to make moves and be a top flight GM. But what made the 2009 lineup so special wasn’t the stats, it was the pie. And that kind of walk off magic is tough to duplicate.
You are absolutely correct
about Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada being a year older. I am very careful for my expectations of the aging players. They may not show any signs of their age till one freak injury. Remember when Matsui was an iron man? It wasn’t that long ago. First the wrist went in a freak accident and next thing we knew he was having his knees drained all the time.
Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.
by Edwantsacracker on Jan 29, 2010 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
CHONE
is spectacularly bullish (like early 2007 stock market bullish) on Melky.
I’d HOPE he do that well, but I have some serious doubts.
CNNSI's Marksman
By signing Randy Winn, the Yankees continued with a quietly excellent winter. Winn, 35, might be a bit stretched at this point as a regular, but he’s an average hitter, a very good baserunner and a very good defender, excellent in the outfield corners and passable in center. He’s an ideal role player, and — money and sentiment aside — don’t be at all surprised if the team gets more production out of a combination of him and Brett Gardner than they would have out of Johnny Damon, who for all his many virtues isn’t much in the field and hasn’t been for a long time.
Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tim_marchman/01/29/hot.stove/1.html#ixzz0e7stMhRs
Makes sense to me. If Girardi uses them properly, the combo should make up for the loss of Damon – almost – at a lot less $$$$
Tim Marchman is a very good writer. I’ve been reading his stuff before he joined SI and WSJ and have exchanged e-mails with him quite a few times.
by Scooby Snacks on Jan 30, 2010 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Wait till next year!!!
Obviously the team is thinking about next year when some big contract come due. In that regard, not signing Damon makes a lot of sense. I can also understand that he wants one more big contract. I understand he lost some big money in bad investments, but the Yankees were never going to give him $30-45 million with the players they have to pay next year. Everyone should see that.
I’ve kept saying the Yankees needed a backup catcher so that Posada can DH more. It sees the Yanks think they can get by with Cervalis and maybe bring alone Montero and see what he’s got. But as each season ticks by the greater the need for a replacement at catcher.
Next year will be a more interesting off season for sure. For one thing you know they will keep Jeter forever, but as he slows down, where do you play him? Does he still start at SS? Then, there’s Crawford. The Yankees think the have their new CF and will look to go younger at both LF & RF. Gardner probable has this year to prove himself if for nothing else the 4th OF of the future. Winn and Johnson are 1 year contracts and if the right trade comes along Swisher, Winn, & Johnson may not be in NY in Aug.
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