Jeter and Pete Rose
by Travis G on Jan 25, 2010 3:15 PM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintInspired by an excellent post at LoHud, I wanted to ask you whether The Captain will break Pete Rose's hits record.
Through Rose's first 14 seasons, he played in 61 more games than Jeter and accumulated only 15 more hits. For the sake of argument, we can pretty much say that Jeter is about in the same position that Rose was at this point of his career.
Rose went on to play 10 more years. He played in 1,378 games in those seasons, slapping 1,494 base knocks to give him a total of 4,256. Simple math tells us that Rose averaged slightly more than 149 hits per season on the back end of his career. Rose played until the age of 45, and his production didn't begin to drop off significantly until the last four years of his career. The six seasons prior to that, he failed to have more than 170 hits only once (in 1981 when MLB experienced a work stoppage due to a player strike).
Let's assume Jeter plays 10 more seasons to give him the same amount as Rose. Let's go a step further and assume two of those seasons will be plagued with injury (let's be honest, he is getting older). In eight healthy seasons, Jeter would need to average 157 hits to reach 4,000. Should he be healthy every season, he would only need 125 per season.
This leads us to the final number to discuss - 4,256. Again, let's assume Jeter has eight healthy seasons left. He would need to average 189 hits per season. Should he remain healthy for 10 more years, he would only need 151 per year. With a current average of 196 hits per season, it is statistically possible.
So I'm asking you to speculate on Jeter's desire to play another decade. If he does, I think he breaks the record. But will he want to?
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I don't see Jeter declining
And yet I don’t see him playing for 10 more years. It’s something nice to speculate about, but I think that the first Yankee with 3,000 hits is what’ll make him legendary. I’d be really surprised if he passes Rose.
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
The last bit is important
He might not be interested. I honestly don’t think he’ll do it, but you never know.
+1
Especially if the rumors of his pending marriage are to be believed, if Jeter is ready to shift his #1 focus from baseball man to family man it will become increasingly hard for him to continue to play.
Just my impression, but I think he has a bit of DiMaggio in him. He won’t want to play at less than his best, and I’m sure he won’t be willing to bounce from team to team the way Rose did just to keep racking up ABs.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I just don't think
he’ll play that long. He’s not an egomaniac as was Rose and I think when he feels he’s declining to the detriment of the team he’ll hang ’em up.
I don't know...
…the Yankees aren’t going to pay for Jeter to be unproductive for four years, and I can’t see him hanging on if he’s not at or near the top of his game.
He’s not an absurd, record-obsessed egomaniac like Rose.
http://newyorksportsjerk.blogspot.com/
by New York Sports Jerk on Jan 25, 2010 3:35 PM EST reply actions
Paying
You’re right on. I have faith in Jeter that he won’t try to stay in the game after he’s stopped adding good value by his playing. I have even more faith that the Yankees won’t play him if he isn’t providing good value. He could do it if he didn’t play for a contender but Jeter will retire a Yankee.
If he plays long enough
then he certainly has the ability to do it. That would be really cool to see, wouldn’t it? I think he’s gonna play for a LONG time. I don’t see him as the type of player who will retire before he is finished. I think he has 10 more seasons in him, and if he plays that long then he has a good shot at it. I’m rooting for him.
Ask this question again a year from now.
When I see the length of Jeter’s next contract, I’ll have a better idea of how long he intends to play. (I voted ’can’t decide’). Can you really assume that Jeter will know when he’s declined to the point that he should hang it up? So many stars in all sports can’t. Ask MIchael Jordan fans. We all assume that Jeter is financially set and wouldn’t play just for the money, but we don’t know the state of his finances or how much more he would like to make. Ask Antoine Walker. We’re all assuming he will have a few more years around his career averages (195 or so hits per year), but he could suffer a catasrophic injury, or could simply begin a steeper decline sooner.
If he asks for, and gets, a 7 year contract then I would say he’s thinking about making a run at Rose’s record. If he signs for 3 with options, then forget it. That said, it’s probably a little less crazy to pay out Jeter nto his 40s than it is ARod.
by designatedquitter on Jan 25, 2010 3:49 PM EST reply actions
not too sure about that
A-Rod is better than Jeter, and has more talent. Although power hitters tend to have more of a decline than singles hitters like Jeter, so you can’t really tell.
Depends on what your definition of better is?
If you mean hits a ton of home runs but have very little to show for it until this yr then yes Alex is better.My definition of better is always a clutch hitter with a whole hand full of rings to show for it.There is more to it then just talent alone.Not trying to be a jerk but I totally disagree Arod is better then Jeter.Thats not to say I dont want him playing third especially after he has supposedly figured it out.But Jeter has far and away produced and had more important moments.
Let the Panic bloom
by cashman bashman on Jan 25, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
uhhh...
Jeter is not better than A-Rod. Since 1996, the first full year for both, their stats have been the following:
A-Rod: wRC+ = 167.4, WPA = 3.6 wins per year, Clutch = -.548 per year
Jeter: wRC+ = 134.6, WPA = 2.3 wins per year, Clutch = .136 per year
What this means is that A-Rod is the better overall hitter, and contributed more to his teams winning than Jeter did, but Jeter performed slightly better than his average in high pressure situations while A-Rod performed slightly less than his average in high pressure situations. This doesn’t really mean a whole lot, though, because Pujols and Bonds both have/had negative career Clutch ratings too.
Saying Jeter is better than A-Rod because he has more rings and more important moments is like saying Robert Horry is better than Lebron James because he has a lot of rings and clutch shots.
It's not just this year that A-Rod has been clutch
In 2007 as well, the Yankees do not make the playoffs without the season that he had. Didn’t he hit like, 9 ninth inning home runs that year? In my lifetime, I have NEVER seen a player carry a team to the playoffs the way A-Rod carried the Yankees in 2007. He literally, single-handedly, won the Yankees 5-10 games. So it’s not as if last season was the only year he was clutch.
Jeter is a great player. Very clutch. And has rings. Thats true. But to say he’s better than Alex Rodriguez isn’t right. A-Rod is one of the greatest hitters of all time. He’s at Pujols level. Jeter, while he is a great player, is not in that category.
Jeter is not really a singles hitter
although he’s hit a bunch of them. He’s hit approximately the same number of doubles as ARod (438 to 445) and more triples (54- 27). Jeter also has 224 career homeruns. I fully understand that ARod has 589, which is a truly elite number, and that it pays dividends in selling tickets when he gets near 600, 700, etc..
Jeter’s extra base hit numbers place him a category higher than singles hitter, even though he isn’t in the slugger category.
by designatedquitter on Jan 25, 2010 4:04 PM EST reply actions
I meant 58 triples for Jeter
The point is that he has over 600 extra base hits in his career, which is not a small number
by designatedquitter on Jan 25, 2010 4:10 PM EST reply actions
No way.
Jeter just couldn’t play for an extra 10 years, especially not at SS. Until proven that he’s willing to move to a less demanding position, there is no chance of Jeter playing, (and playing well) for another 10 years.
Sorry, but no chance on reaching 4256 hits.
I doubt it!
Granted, nothing is impossible, but I don’t know if Jeter will play 10 more years. But here’s rooting for him to do it!
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Jan 25, 2010 4:12 PM EST reply actions
Credit to Rose
He had some great seasons at an advantaged age-
.311/.377/.432 in 162 games at 36.
.302/.362/.421 in 158 games at 37.
.331/.418/.430 in 163 games at 38.
.271/.345/.338 in 162 games at 41.
Sort of like Griffey’s chase of Aaron, the first 4/5 of the journey is the easy part.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I see him retiring before he approaches that number, in 10 years he will be 45, which pretty damn old for any sports player. Hes won championships so its not like he would be hanging on to win one, and he doesn’t seem obsessed over any records.
by BadMisterFrosty on Jan 25, 2010 4:25 PM EST reply actions
Rose hit .302 at age 37?
Jeter will be 37 this year, and people would be disappointed if he .302. If he had an average Jeter year of .318, that works out to 15 or 20 extra hits compared to Rose right there. I’m still saying “can’t tell” until he signs a new deal, but if he plays for as long as possible, Rose’s record could be within reach. Maybe. I don’t know. Leave me alone.
by designatedquitter on Jan 25, 2010 4:52 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I’m more impressed by his games played at those advanced ages.
Yes, people will be disappointed if Jeter has that same season, but I think people are setting themselves up for disappointment.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Jeter could get the record
if he accepted a diminished role, took less money, and gave up playing short stop.
Do you see the Prince of New York doing any of those things??
He’ll get his 3,000 hits and retire not long after with a fist full of rings, a storybook career, and no regrets.
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
Jeet vs Rose
Jeter is about to get married. That will change a lot of things in his life, including his desire to play another ten years.
Jeter jewels
The days of freeballin’ will be over once he’s married, and as fan since ‘41 says it will change his desire to play. Jeter’s got a very strong sense of who he is in Yankee lore, and like DiMaggio, I can’t imagine for a second he would do anything to tarnish it—including sticking around when his skills are in decline.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
I hope he at least gives it a shot
If Jeter plays 10 more years, wins a few more rings and breaks Rose’s record, he could conceivably be the second greatest Yankee after Ruth surpassing :gasp: DiMaggio and Mantle. Blasphemy!
One of the great What Ifs...
What if Ichiro had spent his entire career in MLB?
Assuming 1000 hits before his Age 27 season, he’d be at 3030 hits at 35.
He’s got enough ego to want the record, and he’s in the right field position to do it.
Jeter’s just not going to play enough or insert himself into the game when he’s not productive anymore. I see him retiring with 3600 at 40.
Jeter would have manage
and play himself after he no longer deserves to like Rose did for his last few years. I think Jeter ends up 3rd all time behind Rose and Cobb. Too bad because it would be nice to have the hits record both away from Rose and with Jeter.
Jeter defense
Will Jeter be willing to shift positions as did Rose and Paul Molitor? I don’t know. He played excellent defense last year, but even Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith slowed down eventually on defense. Jeter is not quite in their class on defense but is much better offensively and therefore overall. But I think any shot at the Rose record would involve a change of position. Having the DH slot available may help. Overall, I doubt it because Jeter wants to play at the highest level.
There are too many factors.
Yankees all day.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
"If you're not doing it right, you're doing it wrong. And there's no in between." ~Mark "Lunch" McKenzie
Jeter should just convert himself to a power hitter
and aim to reach 500 homeruns. That all-important, AL MVP award will always elude him as long as he remains a singles-gap hitter. If he adopts this approach, I would happily settle for him to have a .270-.280 BA for the next ten years.
Derek, please hit 35+ HR next season and you’ll also end all raging speculation (while saving my sanity) on who should play LF in 2011. Brett Gardner is a chump and always will be.
i don't see it happening
don’t get me wrong, i’ll be pulling for him but i simply don’t think it’ll happen. for one thing he’ll have to play long enough and he is getting old by athlete standards. for another, we don’t know how his production will be in the future. maybe he keeps producing at around his career average, but he could also decline steeply due to circumstances such as injury. also if his engagement rumors are true then being a married man could have an impact on his competitive fire. i don’t see Jeter playing so long that he’s a detriment to the team, i think he has too much pride and respect for what he represents to do that, and he doesn’t really seem concerned about individual accolades.
"When my time on Earth is gone, and my activities here are past, I want they bury me upside down so all my critics can kiss my a**"- Bob Knight
by JumpinJackFlash on Jan 26, 2010 2:53 AM EST reply actions
Can't see it..
only way he does it is if he still loves the game and his skills don’t decline. If he retired today…he’d be in the hall.
He’ll play out his next contract, and that’s probably it.
You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you are going, because you might not get there
P ete Rose vsJeter
I said, No! Rose was made of pure iron, plus in toda’y market it take a lot of money to keep Jeter.The Yankees won’t give Jeter the money to stay in Yankee uniform.His ego won’t allow him to play for another team.But you never know,hopefully he will stay long enough to try to pass Rose.P.S. Rose was a tremendous player he will be a HOF some day.
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