Jeter Resurgent
by jscape2000 on Jan 21, 2010 11:00 AM EST
Email
Print
Dave Allen of FanGraphs broke down Jeter's 2009 hits in an interesting way:
Since Jeter's basically a groundball singles hitter, keeping the ball away from the SS and 2B is the difference between a good and great season. He hit 36% of his batted balls at those positions over his career, but that number dropped to only 30% in 2009.
It's as sure a bet for regression to the mean as anything I've seen, and a great insight by Dave.
So my question for you: What do you expect from Derek Jeter in 2010?
28 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I picked 09 Redux...
I don’t see Jetes declining cause he’s not human and an amazing athlete. 3 Year average is misleading cause of 08’s stats were skewed by the fact Jeter more than likely played with a broken or at least severely bruised wrist for a large chunk of time. At the time he was hitting .314 before the 96 MPH pitch on the wrist. Then proceeded to go 4-44. Dropping his average to .270 range. Hence why I think he’s gonna be a .320+….But I am a Jeter Homer soooo, I may be biased.
I expect
his hitting to remain consistent, around what he did in ’09, if not even better. His range at short is where I expect a bit of a decline.
He walked 20 more times in ’09 than he did in ’08. I expect some regression there. But his Stadium aided power should remain pretty consistent.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Jeter
I don’t care what his batting average is. So long as he doesn’t pull a Tiger Woods on us, he will still be a hero.
That and steroids might be the only thing
that would keep him from the HOF.
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
No way Derek is ever linked to steroids, and even if he pulled a Tiger, still wouldn’t stop him. Half the Hall is full of “Tigers”.
by DarthRichter on Jan 21, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Don’t really see him going down that road.
During the (too) many years of myself being a regular fixture in the NYC party scene while co-owning an events promotions company for three, I’ve seen a fair share of ballplayers out partying hardcore. For a period of time, some of them were even my company clients.
While at various clubs, I’ve been fortunate enough to see Jeter out about a dozen times and “hang out” twice with him at his private booth/table. Not once have I seen him anything close to being drunk, as he doesn’t even drink much (a slow sipper), and always appeared very self-aware. The few NYY players I’ve talked to pretty much consider that Jeter a “homebody”. FWIW, I’ve got a lot of dirt and griminess on players — namely David Wells and Roger Clemens — but I can’t honestly say anything negative (or press print-worthy) about Jeter.
/BRAG
by Scooby Snacks on Jan 21, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
If you think Jeter's a family man.....
you probably haven’t been a Yankee fan since 1996…..
Jeter’s outside life (like it matters…) should never be lumped into Tiger category (like it matters…)
If Jeter pulled a “Tiger”….it would just be just another day in the life…
It gets late real early out here....
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 22, 2010 7:36 AM EST up reply actions
Can't really expect him to get better due to age
and will probably drop off marginally. But then again he’s DEREK friggin JETER! so I hope I’m wrong like the many others that have inaccurately predicted his decline the previous season.
I voted for 3-yr avg...
but a 2009 redux or a slight improvement wouldn’t shock me. The guy just keeps hittin’ ‘em where they ain’t… His swing is such that I don’t see his BA declining all that much due to age.
I can see it declining slightly as his foot speed diminishes. He was never the fleetest guy on the field to begin with, and those grounders in the hole will get harder and harder to beat out.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
i can see the SLG% taking a hit for that reason...
…but you have a point. Makes me wonder what pct. of his hits are of the infield variety?
now i'm inclined to agree with you...
It looks like he’s had 363 infield hits in his career- which breaks down to about 24 per season. Taking away just half of those hits takes him just below .300 (based on his 162 game avg. of 656 ABs though out his career). But I’m not sure he will face that kind of drop off this season, at least.
That said— I still wouldn’t be shocked by anything he does. He is Derek friggin’ Jeeter, after all.
Its too late, but
I would be curious how your words effect the poll. If you just put up those lines what would people have picked? I would bet that there would be more optimistic answers.
Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.
by Edwantsacracker on Jan 21, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Probably. Which is why I added the words.
Sometimes in looking at numbers in a vacuum it’s easy to forget what they mean. The drop from a .415 OBP to .385 doesn’t seem like a huge amount, but for Jeter it’s the difference between a career year and a good year.
.350 OBP doesn’t seem that bad until you remember that he’s only dropped below .370 twice in his career (2004 and 2008).
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
That and that Toxic Avenger Character Lackey
Likes to throw at him and is going to get more chances now.I wish someone could fix that ugly face but plastic surgery is not that advanced just yet.
Let the Panic bloom
by cashman bashman on Jan 22, 2010 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
A career year!!
Jeter has a career year b/c of the perennial last year of the contract career year stats!! The guy is in the last year of his deal and needs to justify why he is still worth close to $20 mill a year. He has a career year (what is that about 12 times I said career) and gets the dough as well! This up and coming contract is the one that makes him retire a Yankee!
" The Survivor"
Pauliecanes
Looks to me from the chart like Jeter's bat speed declined just a little...
…which in this case turns out to be an advantage.
Look at the spray chart from left to right…
The hits down the 3B line dropped from 8% to 6%… likewise the hits to SS dropped from 19% to 17%… and hits up the middle (both center bands) increased by the same 4% that was lost on the left side of the infield. Likewise, hits to 2B dropped from 17% to 13%, and the band to the right of 2B soaked up the difference (other than some roundoff error in the charts).
Point being, everything seems to have moved to the right a bit. In this particular case that turns out to have helped Jeter by moving some groundouts into locations where more of them could go through as hits.
Also, I’m wondering about your statement about groundball singles hitter. According to bbref (splits on hit trajectory), Jeter’s batting average on ground balls last season was only .244, but his average for line drives was .819. He also had his highest slugging percentage via line drives. Would that not classify him as more of a line drive hitter? Or am I maybe getting overly specific in the terminology? Maybe you were lumping line drives with ground balls on the basis that they’re not fly balls?
Anyway, if my hunch on bat speed turns out to be true AND he doesn’t suffer much more falloff in bat speed in 2010, then I’d expect him to come close to repeating his 2009 performance.
I think I follow your logic, but these are not hits. They’re groundballs and line drives, regardless of whether they became outs or hits.
Yes, about over specific on the terminology, only because all hitters are at their best when they hit line drives.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Yes, I know they're not hits.
Just reread what I posted and I was a little murky in the way I worded things. I was saying “hits” as in hitting the ball (making contact), not as actual base hits (1B, 2B, 3B, HR). Sorry for the confusion.
Anyway, the point was that the spray charts seem to show the, uh, balls in play moving to the right in 2009, which could suggest some very slight reduction in bat speed… and in this case, it worked to Jeter’s benefit. If my hunch on bat speed turns out to be true AND he doesn’t suffer much more falloff in bat speed in 2010, then I’d expect him to come close to repeating his 2009 performance.
Your mouth to the baseball gods’ ears.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I don’t think you can infer that Jeter may have lost some bat speed based upon comparison of the two charts. A bat speed radar and/or advanced video cameras could determine that. He could’ve dropped down in bat weight last year but we’ll never know.
by Scooby Snacks on Jan 21, 2010 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
I think Jeter
being in the leadoff spot as opposed to batting second has a lot to do with the difference in numbers from ’08 to ’09. His approach changed. It was commented that his walks will probably drop. I disagree. All part of his approach as the leadoff hitter. Batting second I think Jeter often swung at pitches he now takes because he felt “compelled” to move a runner up, part of your job batting second, thus often hitting into the dreaded double play. I really believe his average, if he stays healthy, will remain near .330 or better since he can be more selective and not be in the position of having to move a runner up as often as batting second.
As long as Jeter is the lead-off hitter
Joe Girardi made a big move by making Jeter (who normally bats 2nd) the Yankees lead-off hitter. That is the key to Jeter’s success as the captain was able to avoid double plays (which is a little disappointing if you hit those).
Someway it was able to take the pressure of Jeter. Good call Girardi!
I'm not expecting it...
I’ll hope he’s at his career average….anything below will be a surprise at this point…but anything above really wouldn’t be…I don’t put it past him to have an above Jeter average year…especially if he’s healthy for a whole season.
In any single “bad” season Jeter’s ever had…it was always an injury that kept him down…like you know..getting a 95mph fastball flush on his hand…and of course still playing?
It gets late real early out here....
Or having a catcher hit him like a linebacker in 2003.
I think his 2004 start, when he struggled so dreadfully was a result of some bad luck and then pressing because of the added media attention around Arod’s arrival.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I think he does this stuff
to screw with all you sabermetrics and stats guys.Then goes home to read and laugh at us try to figure it out on these blogs.He will probably pull the ball out of the park into left a bunch and giggle knowing you have no idea what the hell happened.
Let the Panic bloom
by cashman bashman on Jan 22, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
I have to say
If Jeter could hit a home run in every at bat, and wasnt, just to screw with stat guys, I would find that pretty irritating.
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Community Guidelines
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
