Saturday News: The Tools of Ignorance

by jscape2000 on Jan 2, 2010 6:00 AM EST in New York Yankees Analysis

Brandon and Gerald Laird were arrested after a fight following a Suns-Celtics game. Not sure who they were rooting for (they're from California), but I'm mildly relieved that Brandon, a minor league infielder, has only been charged with disorderly conduct rather than assault like his brother.

So long as he's not hurt, he can put it behind him.

I kept thinking I'd do a longer post with it (and maybe I still will), but on a slow day I want to share.

Nick Steiner took a look at Good AJ and Bad AJ. What he found was that while Good AJ boasted a 1.06 ERA and bad ERA bore a 9.13 ERA, even though the pitch selection and pitch movement data was all nearly identical. It's actually a little freaky how close to identical the individual pitches of Good and Bad AJ are.

For location, Bad AJ threw only 2% more pitches down the middle than Good AJ, and (counter intuitively) that 2% comes from pitches that Good AJ threw outside.

And it's not the sequence either. Steiner broke down AJ's pitch selection based on whether it was a pitcher's count, a hitter's county, or neutral.

via www.hardballtimes.com

I'm stumped on why there's so little difference between what AJ produces (in the quality and arrangement of his pitches) and the outcome of those pitches.

I've been thinking about why the Tigers seem so willing to punt a division they nearly won in 2009.

I think it comes down to the White Sox starting rotation: Peavy-Buehrle-Floyd-Danks-Garcia. Add the White Sox to the tickets to be interested as you consider which games to attend at the Stadium in 2010.

AOL Fanhouse thinks that the Yankees' New Year's Resolution should be to move Joba to the bullpen for good.

I think a better resolution would be to make sure that both Joba and Hughes get 130+ innings of work in 2010 so that there are in-house options for 2011 in case Andy Pettitte retires and Javy Vazquez leaves via free agency.

Anthony McCarron reports that El Duque is pitching winterball. I hope that when I'm 64 I'll still be driven enough to do the things I love and capable of doing them well.

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Scary...

It is frightening how close that is. You would think that if it was his curveball being hammered it would be thrown more in bad starts or something… but good lord its nearly identical. I think the only thing that would make this more comprehensive is the average versus each individual pitch in good vs bad.

by ZigKitsune on Jan 2, 2010 6:27 AM EST reply actions

AJ Burnett

AJ’s delivery motion is complicated (classic as it may be) and dependent on rhythm. When the rhythm is off, the control is off. Pitch selection consistency tells us nothing about control.

by jfromhrly on Jan 2, 2010 7:58 AM EST reply actions

Contol, concentration, whatever it is...

Hope he does something different….

-Announcemen Forwarded To The Following: Boston Blowsox, New York Pets, Philadelphia Phonies, And Any Other Team Who Ain't The With The Empire.................

Getcha' Fuccin Rings Up........

by NYYWinsRings27 on Jan 2, 2010 10:09 AM EST via mobile reply actions

64?

Why El Duque is not a day over 52!

I love the fact that this guy’s birth has been variously placed between 1957 and 1969. That’s a pretty wide swath.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Jan 2, 2010 10:45 AM EST reply actions

I know you guys might flame me

but I read that Nick Steiner article, and was thinking while reading how it was a case of an author arriving at the issue already having made his decision and looking for evidence to support his foregone conclusion rather than the other way around. The difference does appear in the data but the author chose not to see it… and beyond that, never bothered to explore another piece that could have explained the puzzle. In no particular order…

1. There are differences shown in the data. For one, Bad AJ kept pitches a little higher in the strike zone. There was also evidence that Bad AJ didn’t have the same command of his pitches, and changed the pitch selection to compensate.

2. At the elite level of a major league pitcher, very small differences can and do have a big impact on results. Even a 2% difference in effectiveness can be the difference between pitching six innings of shutout ball and giving up a 3 run homer in the second inning. The same is true at the highest levels of other sports.

(As an aside, consider this: 2% in velocity alone is the difference between a hittable 93MPH pitch and a nasty 95MPH pitch. Same goes for a long fly ball hit to the edge of the warning track vs. the same fly ball just clearing the fence for a home run.)

3. The data on pitch selection and placement doesn’t take into account the situational context behind those pitches. Was AJ throwing that fastball because he had no confidence in getting his curve over for a strike, or because he had the batter guessing curve due to its effectiveness? The data don’t even examine that aspect, but it is potentially a critical part of the analysis… a critical part glossed over.

The difference is there, just seems Steiner either cannot or does not want to see it.

by pinstriper on Jan 2, 2010 10:49 AM EST reply actions

While I don’t think think it’s fair to charge Steiner with willful ignorance, you raise good points.

There is a difference, but I don’t think these numbers show the difference (especially considering the small sample size).

I think we need to go even farther inside the numbers.

The work of evaluating what was thrown in pitch v hitter’s counts is a good start. The next step is probably weighing pitch patterns, and then evaluating pitch location in contrast to hitters’ hot and cold zones. A low outside fastball to Alex Rodriguez will clear the fence, but the same pitch to Jerry Hairston Jr would produce a very different result.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jan 2, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

You're right that Steiner has a foregone conclusion

In fact he admits as much in the introduction of his artlcle. However, his point isn’t that there is no difference between how Bad AJ and Good AJ pitched, but rather that stats, which are cumulative in nature, aren’t a good way to distinguish between the two. Once you start providing a lot of situational context, you’re no longer in the realm of statistics.

That being said, he doesn’t really give any measure as to whether the small differences in his numbers are statistically significant or not. I’d have liked to see standard deviations on the fastball speeds. (Interestingly, Bad AJ’s mean fastball speeds seem to be 0.5 mph higher than Good AJ’s.)

(I don’t really see the differences you point out in item 1. Steiner does analyze pitch location in much more detail and ends up showing that Bad AJ’s location was statistically better than Good AJ’s. And the only pitch selection difference I see in the data presented is that Bad AJ threw fewer changeups and more two-seamers in pitcher’s counts than Good AJ.)

Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?

by Q-TDSK on Jan 2, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

Once you start providing a lot of situational context, you’re no longer in the realm of statistics.

Pattern recognition is at the heart of statistics.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jan 2, 2010 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

I agree, but so is sample size.

Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?

by Q-TDSK on Jan 3, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

I see your point.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jan 3, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

I think if you looked at any pitcher

You’d get similar results. I doubt the main difference between a good start and a bad start is pitch selection but rather pitch execution.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 2, 2010 10:58 AM EST reply actions

Its the pitch movement

AJ’s stuff is filthy when he has command and movement on his pitches that makes him good Aj and when he doesn’t it makes him bad AJ….if you are throwing a pitch that hangs over the plate or is like a flat fastball expect the pitch to be hammered this is MLB those guys can hit and pitchers have to pitch around most of them because there that dammn good

by rishirichr on Jan 2, 2010 11:57 AM EST via mobile reply actions