Do throws to first do anything?

by Travis G on Sep 4, 2009 1:00 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

Based on actual data from 2002-09 the stolen base percentage of a runner decreases if at least one throw is made over to first by the pitcher:

Stolen Base
Percentage

No Throw Made 75%

At Least One Throw Made 64%

In fact, it even makes a difference if he makes more than one throw:

Stolen Base
Percentage

One Throw Made 66%

Two Throws Made 65%

Three or More 64%

Both of these conclusions match what we found last time. If it's your pitcher making the throws, cheer him on. But if it's the opposing pitcher, it's your job as a fan to let him know that you don't appreciate all those throws!

So the more throws, the worse chance the baserunner has of stealing second.

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Comments

Not sure I understand

From what you posted, one throw = 66%, 2 throws = 65%, 3+ throws = 64%. So, I don’t see what you mean when you say that continuing to throw over is less effective than one throw. Certainly, the biggest jump is from zero to one throw, but there still seems to be a measureable gain from additional throws.

by waw on Sep 4, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions

you're right

i misread it somehow.

by Travis G on Sep 7, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the chart is backwards

The first graphic shows 64% with 1 throw and the second is 66%. I assume the 2nd chart was acidentally reversed although I wouldn’t call 1% significant unless there is a lot more data here than I think.

by GeneB on Sep 4, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions

Not a great study.

This is an interesting subject. I’m not sure that this study is very conclusive though. MGL was frustrated by this article in particular over at the book: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/another_stat_of_the_week/

Before that even, Dan at BP posted an article that concluded throws to first didn’t have a measurable effect, at least not through the types of investigation that have happened so far. His article is at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9431

For those without accounts, the study controls for prolific base runners over the last 4 years and splits the stats up for right and left handed pitchers. If you do that, it’s not clear throwing to first has any positive effect. In fact, the numbers show the opposite. But that might just be that throws to first are made more often in scenarios where runners are more likely to steal successfully and more likely to steal in general.

If you’re interested in this topic, it’s worth checking out those articles.

by metric on Sep 4, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions

Its not a stat.....

To liveby………… pitchers don’t do it cause statistically there is a 10% chance less of them stealing.

They do it to get in the runner’s head….. Just like a runner when the pitcher is facing a tough batter will do everything to make the pitcher think he is going to steal….. try to break his concentration and make a mistake.

by Gangsta Yanksta on Sep 4, 2009 7:00 PM EDT reply actions

....

exaclty? THey get in the runner’s head, and they are less successful on their steal attempts. What you are saying and the stat is saying are the same thing.

GODZZIIIIIRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!

by FreeBradshaw on Sep 5, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Unless the pitcher is Andy

Throws to first don’t mean a damn thing unless your picking them off at times. Andy has over 90, runners think twice about taking a big lead at first on him.

by Tricon11 on Sep 4, 2009 7:52 PM EDT reply actions