Bold Prediction Update

by jscape2000 on Sep 29, 2009 9:00 AM EDT in Analysis Comment 18 comments

Doncha know?

Update: I wrote this before Robbie beat the Royals last night.

Last year, I picked Mike Mussina to have a great year. He did.

Back on March 6th, I picked Robbie Cano to have a break out season. I looked at his abnormally low BABIP against his high line drive rate, and I predicted he'd hit .325/.375/.500.

2009: .321/.352/.518.

His slugging is phenomenal (17th in the league, and the highest ranked up the middle player not named Joe Mauer).

He came up short on the OBP, which I figured would go back up towards his 2007 career high 5.9%. After posting a 4.2% in 2008 and a nearly identical 4.3% this season, it looks like 2007 was the outlier.

There's been a lot of attention given to his terrible hitting with RISP, and while he might have been putting extra pressure on himself early, for it to stay this low some bad luck has been involved too. Just like Edwin Jackson of the Tigers out performed his peripherals and now is coming back to earth, we have more to look forward to from Robbie in the playoffs.

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I think I'm gonna repeat this in every Cano related post....

If Robbie fixes that whole not hitting with RISP thing…say at least he moves towards normal Robbie average.

Yankees will not lose a game in the playoffs.

What the f$%k is the internet?

by FreeBradshaw on Sep 29, 2009 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

bold prediction

but if he did hit with RISP he would be the best 2B in the game

by Brian5517209 on Sep 29, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess so...

but its true. He’s the Lamar Odom of baseball. I’ve said that before too (and that I hate the Lakers…)but Lamar is a lazy bastard, but the guy has all the talent in the world and can take over games when he wants too.

Just like Cano. All the talent in the world, but its that whole hustle on everything he does, like a Chase Utley, in order to get everything out of his talent.

He decides to leave on the switch, they are unbeatable. He’s that good.

What the f$%k is the internet?

by FreeBradshaw on Sep 29, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is tired criticism

He learned from last year. He and Melky have worked hard and hustled. In a few years we’ll mention him with Jeter and Mattingly.
If there’s criticism this year its that he’s tried too hard and pressed with risp and he makes it look too easy.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Sep 29, 2009 11:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

if he can do that

then we are talking MVP caliber
which he is capable of

by holycowboy on Sep 29, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

i do think he’s a future MVP— especially in this lineup.

by NumberSeven on Sep 29, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

got his jersey

3 yrs ago,if he hits in the playoffs with runners on I might just wear it?If he doesn’t I will put it back for next yr.Would really like to wear my Cano jersey please.

by cashman bashman on Sep 29, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He has excellent hitter,

that being said, he doesn’t belong anywhere in the lineup higher than 6th. Not because of his low RISP this season, but because of the poor OBP. He’ll likely have a career with a high BABIP which will leave his average around .315 or .320 through his time spent year. However, a .350 OBP is just not not good enough to bat 3rd (where I and many others expected he’d eventually move to). Usually we see large enough improvements in walk rate through the arb. years, but not so with Robbie. Not to say that he’s an awful player, he just has a weakness than can be greatly exploited if he’s batting behind the high OBP guys.

by Leviticus6688 on Sep 29, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He has one of the prettiest swings I have ever seen

It is so natural, nothing forced or jerky. The polar opposite of Damon’s swing. The RISP problem exists between the kid’s ears. Hopefully he can get that worked out. If he does, this kid is gonna drive in 120 one day.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Sep 29, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the RISP problem is bad luck

’09 BABIP — .326
(Career BABIP — .322)

’09 BABIP with RISP — .213

I don’t think the problem is psychological, I think he’s just not hittin’ them where they ain’t.

by NumberSeven on Sep 29, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes the RISP is chance, but the OBP is a fundamental flaw

Cano is a hacker. He swings at anything he thinks he can hit and pitchers exploit this. He would be better off being more selective and waiting for his favorite. All his averages would go up. Often, players like this do poorly in the playoffs where every pitcher is good and none of them will throw him a strike unless he makes them. He has to know this but it appears he has chosen to ignore it. Or maybe he’s just been holding out and will take advantage when it matters.

by Peter Lacock on Sep 29, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no way it's bad luck

he frequently swings on the first pitch with risp, and when he doesn’t you can tell he’s trying to work the count and let’s hittable pitches go by.

by GMan83201 on Sep 29, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

go ahead to basball reference and check Robbie's

BA on that first pitch. Go head, dare ya.

actually…. .436/.436(obviously…)/.726…..

.726 slugging on the first pitch. That’s 1.162 slugging on the first pitch.

I initially had a problem with the first pitch thing too. Then I saw that, and proceeded to shut up about it.

But go ahead and check his splits anyway. Some of the stuff is mind boggling.

What the f$%k is the internet?

by FreeBradshaw on Sep 29, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you meant 1.162 *OPS

by pinstriper on Sep 29, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is something

about Cano that makes me not like him. I can’t explain it. But if he keeps playing this way, I could learn to love him.

"Don't let your fears of striking out keep you from playing the game."

by Lizza on Sep 29, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Had no idea you were a psychic ...

Tell me … is the $88 million dollar lottery winning ticket in my wallet?
Sure, predicting Mussina’s great season and Cano’s resurgeance certainly set you apart from the common man, but JScape, I got’s to know …

My eldest kid needs braces …
My middle kid needs a tutor in math …
My youngest needs a new bike …
My wife needs new cans …

Help me out, man. Tell me if I need to drop another $100 on the lottery or not. I’m countin’ on you, Kreskin!

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 29, 2009 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs