Another Angle on Joba
by jscape2000 on Sep 22, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintCan we agree that Yankee fans are spoiled?
We are, and we feel we deserve to be.
We get pissed off with every reliever who blows a lead because we're used to the most automatic closer in history. We get impatient with every league average position player because we're used to fielding 9 of the top 20 hitters in the league (see Spencer, Shane; Ledee, Ricky).
And we get frustrated with 23 year old starters who struggle in their first full season starting (3rd professional season overall).
The problem:
Joba Chamberlain (23): IP, 1.5 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 7.6 K/9
The possible 4th starters for the other teams in the playoff hunt:
Matsuzaka (28): 46.1IP, 2.0 WHIP, 69 ERA+, 8.5 K/9
Buchholz (24): 77.1IP, 1.4 WHIP, 135 ERA+, 5.8 K/9
Washburn (34): 176IP, 1.2 WHIP, 115 ERA+, 5.1 K/9
Bonine (28): 22.2 IP, 1.6 WHIP, 98 ERA+, 5.2 K/9
Twins (Holy cow! Good luck figuring out who the Twins 4 starters would be)
Liriano (25): 130.2 IP, 1.5 WHIP, 71 ERA+, 8.3K/9
Blackburn (27): 184.2 IP, 1.4 WHIP, 95 ERA+, 4.0 K/9
Baker (27): 182.2 IP, 1.2 WHIP, 93 ERA+, 7.5 K/9
Pavano (33): 57.1 IP, 1.3, 115 ERA+, 6.8 K/9
Duensing (26): 72.2 IP, 1.3, 128 ERA+, 6.1 K/9
E. Santana (26): 122.2 IP, 1.5 WHIP, 84 ERA+, 7.0 K/9
Kazmir (25): 136.1 IP, 1.4 WHIP, 89 ERA+, 7.3 K/9
Granted, these are season averages, so they don't reflect how terrible Joba has been recently. They don't account for how Dice-K might rebound from his injury, how Kazmir likes his new home, or how using a guy at home or away might give a better match-up.
But, if you believe that Joba can be the Joba we've seen all season (rather than just the guy who has inspired dread in August and September), then should they just hand Joba the ball with the confidence that he's as good or better than whomever he matches up against?
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The problem
that I see is that Joba hardly looks like he can throw like he used to. I don’t just mean reliever Joba. Joba last year and at times early this year had a sharp slider and a fastball that could touch 96 as a starter. When I watch him pitch now he looks damaged. Sort of like Kazmir has since 2008 but even worse. He will occasionally show flashes but more and more there looks like something mechanically or physically wrong. I don’t know if it is fatigue or an injury, but the issue right now seems not to be the usual starter/pen question. The issue is if there is something wrong with him.
Also
a minor but interesting point-I doubt the Twins will make it, but if they do, Pavano should pitch. He has actually been really good this year, and his standard stats don’t tell the whole story. His FIP is 3.96 and he has been unlucky by BABIP. By FIP he and Baker are the best pitchers on the team. His FIP is also better than all Yankee starters save CC, and all Sox starters save Lester and Beckett.
I've tried looking deeper at the statistics
And may post something later in the week. But for all intents and purposes, putting aside things like H/9 and ERA, which are at least somewhat influenced by factors outside the starter’s control, Joba = AJ Burnett this year, at least in terms of peripherals: K/9, BB/9, HBP, HR rate, etc.
I don’t know. One the one hand, he’s throwing well enough to strike out nearly 8 batters per 9 innings, which is solid. Yet on the other, he struggles with everything that’s been talked about before.
Sometimes
young talented pitchers have misleading K/9s. There is no question that Joba can still strike guys out. Young pitchers who have excellent K rates can sometimes struggle and place too much emphasis on trying to K everyone they face. Last season Buchholz had this problem-he K/9 was nearly 9 but he threw tons of pitches and relied way too much on his curve to do it. This was a major part of his issues (although he also had a very high BABIP). It is possible that this is part of the problem with Joba.
But it must be a concern that his velocity alone is significantly down. Games I have seen he seems to sit 91 instead of 93-94. It seems to indicate something. It is true what you say about him being like Burnett but that says more about Burnett than Joba. Burnett’s FIP (measuring the things under his control) is 4.48 which is not good, but not terrible. Joba’s is
4.77, which is approaching terrible.
I posted on the previous blog.....
That I think there are TWO problems with Joba…..#1…..I do not feel his head is anywhere NEAR the game. His concentration is NIL. #2…..I have read in other BLOGS that he starts the day with several of those PATHETIC energy drinks. Those do nothing more than raise him up and when the bottom drops out he is toast. His conditioning/endurance is PATHETIC. I am 63 and could put him under the table. Get Joba a conditioning coach, maybe one or both of the two from “Biggest Loser”. Work his underconditioned butt off. That is my rant. I am just tired of hearing “he is only 23”…..
Rick
Goooooooooooo MSU BOBCATs
MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY
pathetic energy drinks?
I don’t like them…
But 95% of MLB drinks them.
And he is only 23. What the hell is wrong with saying that? He’s also never thrown this many innings.
Your #1 problem is somewhat a concern, I sometimes think the same thing. It might not entirely be his fault, cuz you know, he’s 23. When’s the last time the Yankees, in the media circus that is NY, had a 23 year old anything that was talked about as much as him. Not even Jeter was a focal point when he was younger, not even close.
Your problem #2 is completely baseless accusation and wrong. Conditioning? On a team that has CC Sabathia going 15IP every game with being as conditioned as he is….
And that’s the problem, Joba hasn’t thrown 250IP+ in a season whatever times in a row CC has. That’s the only way to get his conditioning up…..
Another reason to say he’s only 23……
What the f$%k is the internet?
by FreeBradshaw on Sep 22, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
only wondering.....
due to the fact he seems to tire WAY too quickly. It seems to me his conditioning is lacking or those energy drinks are his downfall, quick drop of blood sugar. Sure CC has never seemed to have a problem, but to me it is an individual thing. Just a thought that maybe they should attempt to see if his is a conditioning problem
.
And YES, playing in New York is certainly not easy, with every move being placed under a microscope
.
I just hope when he is 26-27-28 that they are not saying he is only ##.
I still feel he needs a conditioning routine. With fatigue/tiring comes lack of mental approach.
Thanks FB
Rick
Goooooooooooo MSU BOBCATs
MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY
I agree...
I believe some pitchers do not train with enough cardio. Sitting on a stationary bike doesn’t cut it. They should run 4+ miles to increase stamina. I do not know what the Yankee pitching training regime is, but I believe Joe G. will address any of these issues with offseason training plans.
The Yanks are in uncharted waters with Joba. They needed a full year as a starter to gauge what he needs to work on.
by ficktdichjoe on Sep 22, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
no doubt...
I think he does need to become mentally tougher, but its just that many kids aren’t Evan Longoria or whoever else was young and came in and dominated.
I know I’ll be more critical of him next year, yet he’ll still be merely 24 in his second full year starting.
Most pitchers have the start to their career that Joba has. He doesn’t have the best mechanics, he’s had arm surgery already too.
He may just need the entire offseason to get his mind right….but that does the team no good now.
I think the Yankees from here on out, just need to go hands off with him. Just hand him the ball, shut up and let Joba pitch.
Cuz if we had the even the mediocre, 5 2/3, 3 runs Joba right now, that would be fine with me.
If we had the 7 IP, dominant starter we saw after the AS break and a few time before that? WS is a lock.
Its happened before, Joba is in uncharted territory so that he’s struggles has a lot to do with it.
And this IS his conditioning. He has to figure out how to cope when he does tire out.
Maybe as he gets older he realizes those energy drinks aren’t helping tho…..
What the f$%k is the internet?
by FreeBradshaw on Sep 22, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Its gotta be fatigue....
he’s got ZERO command. I aint worried about the velocity. It seems that when he decides to use it, I see the 95+ that we remember.
I don’t know any other explanation than this screwing with him has messed with him, he’s tired (cuz he’s never thrown this many innings) or he’s injured.
I just don’t know. Every time he trots out there lately, he stinks. Will he turn it around in a playoff game? Nothing to say that he will, so who the hell knows (false hope…)
Is shutting him down gonna help him, the Yankees, anyone? I dunno….
I still kinda think that my idea of shutting him down for a month them building him back up would have worked, it they had this innings limit thing set in stone.
Cuz the Yankees idea sure is not helping, at least for this season.
What the f$%k is the internet?
Always amazed....
at the level of anger and bitterness towards young Joba. From what I read, Joba is a good teammate, works hard, and in driven to win. I am not a head-shrinker (no offense to any of you who are), but I believe it is mentally easier to be a reliever than a starter.
Joba the Reliever: sit back and relax as the games starts, enter the game in the eighth inning, throw heat, throw heat, drop a slider, next batter; make a mistake, next game perform better.
Joba the Starter: five day routine (eight-, ten-,etc.), study the full line-up (as opposed to letting your catcher call it as a reliever), mix and match three to four different pitches, go through the line up more than once, live with what you did until your next start.
Being a starter is much more challenging. David Cone/Al Leiter spoke on this earlier in the season. As far as fatigue goes, well, of course he is tired. Between pitching more innings than ever, the intensity of each of his starts, the offseason issues (DUI, mother, etc.), and the constant barrage of questions for almost every single pitch. I am sure that most 23 – 24 year old men might have a few problems along the way.
He’s a Yankee. Would you rather he be a Red Sox pitcher? He does need to step his game up, but, good or bad, he’s a Yankee.
True
but the issue seems not to be the old starter/reliever issue here. Sure it is easier to throw your best stuff for one inning. Last year before he got hurt in Texas he was effectively (if somewhat inefficiently) throwing harder and with more bite on his breaking stuff. That was as a starter. If he could throw that then as a starter, why can’t he now?
I agree...
Joba may be the only one that can answer that question. However, that won’t stop us from guessing, huh?
I see it in the same light as AJ’s problems – mostly mental. If AJ keeps his emotions under control, he is, most times, lights-out. But once AJ does the “Why, why, why did I throw that pitch???” thing, AJ and the Yanks are in big trouble. Emotion is great, but only when it is under control so it can be focused and channeled. Out of control emotion is nothing less than chaos.
by ficktdichjoe on Sep 22, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
If you believe that last part...
…you need your head examined.
Joba has given you no reason to suspect he has anything left in 2009.
by New York Sports Jerk on Sep 22, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions
You may indeed be correct...
I suppose we will find out in Boston.
by ficktdichjoe on Sep 22, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Bullpen Time
I think it is time to put Joba back in the bullpen after this season. I said he should be there in the beginning of this season. It just seems like that is his natural position to me. He should also be the heir apparent to replace Mo when he retires. These are all just my opinions but something needs to change. We need to lock down this playoff spot and get ready to roll!!
GO NY GIANTS!!
what was joba's record and era before they rested him?....
What was his win streak before they rested him?…how deep was he going into innings?…..joba strated the season struggling…and just as he got into his rhytm…just when it looked like he was going to be a very gifted starting pitcher….he was shut down for his innings limit. I still say the guy is just out his rhythm. I would have let him pitch….til he hit the limit and shut em down. But I’m not the manager. Everybody here has their own opinion which is respected. Mines would have been to shut him down and spend the rest of the season looking for aour 4th starter for the playoffs. But its easy speaking in hindsight bias.
by NYYWinsRings26 on Sep 22, 2009 4:01 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
After All Star Break...
I believe the Yanks may have done just that (shut him down) had Joba not spun off three extremely good games (19 Jul: 6 2/3IP, 8K, 3BB, 1ER; 24 Jul: 7IP, 6K, 3BB, 1ER; 29 Jul: 8IP, 5K, 2BB, 0ER). Then, Joba went south, and the Yanks may have thought “maybe one more start….”
by ficktdichjoe on Sep 22, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
indeed....
I can’t help but wonder……a 3 man rotation for the playoffs?…..cc andy a.j……?…or is that just a pipe dream?
by NYYWinsRings26 on Sep 22, 2009 4:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
For a short series....
perhaps, but I do not believe they could go with a three-man rotation for a seven game series. Especially, two seven-game series in a row (ALCS & WS). But, you never know. Stranger things have happened.
In 2001, it seemed as if the Yanks for Johnson and Schilling every game.
by ficktdichjoe on Sep 22, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
yea there arms would be done.....
Wonder what’s going on with ian kennedy…
Oh please….no mention of 2001 or 2004….like a vampire staring at the sunlight….it hurts….
by NYYWinsRings26 on Sep 22, 2009 4:31 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Ian K.
I think they may wait to pitch him a safe spot in a game (that is, if the bats wake up). He is to pitch in the AFL, I believe.
by ficktdichjoe on Sep 22, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
You still want to talk about things that don't or aren't gonna happen!
One last time…
There’s NO SENSE in discussing a Game 4 starter since Joe will only use 3 guys if the ALDS goes longer than 3 games! Joba will be a bullpen pitcher in Round 1. Stop this discussion of him being used otherwise…it’s worthless.
To address his other issues…he’s clearly messed up in the head on how to prepare since they’ve mis-managed his innings the whole year. He’s also putting too much pressure on himself as a result. When he came to the Yanks in 2007, he just threw & worried about the consequences later. It didn’t matter that he was an 8th inning guy. He just threw his best stuff & challenged every hitter.
Now he’s worried about being yanked after every hitter regardless of the result! Not a mental makeup you want him to have. Secondly, his mechanics are messed up as a result of these mental mindgames. Sometimes, he just throws & it works. Then when he gets into trouble, he modifies his mechanics since he’s led to believe that throwing the same pitches to different locations with different mechanics will get results.
Lastly…please don’t be ignorant about his use of energy drinks. I’m sure the Yankee trainers have been monitoring his conditioning, diet, etc. to prevent an energy crash.
Bottom line, his confidence gets shot by all the things I mentioned above, so he loses steam since he’s so worried. He’s afraid to throw his stuff with authority. Joba feels if he throws 92 and hits corners at times while getting shelled, how is throwing 96 gonna make a difference? That’s his mindset!
That’s why they need to adjust his mentality right now…forget stupid Eiland in the mentoring process. Let CC & Mo re-program him to feel strong & confident! Remember, he’s a Nebraska boy that’s been brought up to respect his elders in a certain way. That’s why he’s been listening so hard to Eiland & Joe. He had to be a man in his teens instead of growing up normally since his father was sick. He now needs a big brother figure to help him adjust mentally both personally & professionally!
Trust me….I know what I’m talking about!
Energy drinks causing him to crash & lose his velocity. LOL LOL LOL!
well yea...
but winning the ALDS is just part of the solution, its not the answer.
We all want this team playing a game 4 right? The ALCS has a game 4 as far as I remember, so does the World Series.
I don’t want to kill CC and do that, Id rather CC be 100% for the games he throws (and if it so happens…maybe to come in relief in a game 7….)
The ALDS, yea, you probably are right (as for knowing what you are talking about…….)
And if by accounts Joba is downing energy drinks, more than 3 or 4 before a start, he’s gonna peter out after a while.
Give yourself a little experiment. Drink 4 Red Bull’s then try to mimic what a pitcher does. Throw for a little while, sit, throw, sit.
You crash after a few hours drinking them. If he’s really doing 4 or more of them before a start…yea, its gonna affect him….
What the f$%k is the internet?
by FreeBradshaw on Sep 22, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I mentioned this before...
The ALCS has the same layout…4 days off in between Games 1 & 4. In a perfect scenario, we sweep the Central champs & the other series goes 4 or 5. This way, we lay CC up to start Games 1 & 4 of the ALCS. If the ALCS goes 7…he’d have to go on 3 days rest. That’s a quality risk to take.
I guarantee you he’s not drinking 1.5 liters of Red Bull or any other energy drink before a game…the trainers would have his a-s in a sling. He might drink one or 2, then balance it out with water or something else. Besides, drinking that much Red Bull on a consistent basis would lead to other issues they’d notice.
It’s mental & mechanics…guaranteed!
Wait a minute YOU ARE JOBA!!!!!!! JustinS1 my ass!
Joba Chamberlain ladies and gentlemen!!!——-LMAO
-I'm the straw that stirs the drink.........Then I drink the drink too.------You're Welcome.
by ReggieARodJeter on Sep 22, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont agree with the post that Joba is finished for good
I do think he is done this year though. You cant have this guy out there with the season on the line, when he fails, it might hurt him more than any arm problem could. I say the new Joba Rules should be to Rule him out for the rest of the year. He is the Starting pitcher version of Bruney. Every time I see him on the mound, I know bad things are coming.
let him pitch.
joba has only started sucking since hes been throwing 3-4 innings a start. if they let him pitch he is really good. but why dont they let him pitch? protecting his arm is it? why can linceicum pitch great his 1st & 2nd years without this innings limit and other guys like lester, all the guys in tampa and LAA. why cant they just let him pitch, he has superstar talent he just needs to be given the chance.
Schumer said: "Now the Giants aren’t just New York’s team, they’re America’s team."
"You forget about it whether it was 15-2 or 3-2. It's still a loss. It doesn't matter what the score was if we win tomorrow."... Derek Jeter.
by donnybaseball23 on Sep 22, 2009 8:19 PM EDT reply actions
That is a good theory and one I argued last month also
but everyone is different. Different mental makeup, different style, different skill set etc. I’ve personally stopped worrying about it all and just care about 11 wins in the playoffs.
What I mean is one day at a time.
-I'm the straw that stirs the drink.........Then I drink the drink too.------You're Welcome.
by ReggieARodJeter on Sep 22, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's try and remember
that this a kid trying to do one of the hardest things in all of sports.
I know we’re Yankee fans, but let’s try some “patience.” His nasty stuff has proven that he deserves it.
Facial LaFleur, total facial.
I think they should let him pitch....
just not this year.. he should be rested Girardi and cashman messed him up mentally.. imagine if your boss told you to come into work for 3 hours a day (3 innings for him) would you be productive ? or would you be thinking about that 4 hour. It affects the outcome no matter which way you look it.. this may not be the best example considering he only has 9 outs to go in 3 innings. I believe if they let him pitch after the 6 inning in the bullpen he may be lights out, but the time is now to let him loose, not in the playoffs.
Joba washes down corn and steak with Crown Royal
That is why he sux. I asked him,that’s what he told me.
But in all seriousness,I was a “Joba to the bullpen” guy,still am. But in his defense, he’s been twirked with so much that its crazy. Add the increase in innings and pitches thrown and there is your answer.
I just see him as a postseason liability at this point. We are just going to have to trust the brass that they do the right thing with everything at stake. How about we just get through the 1st round and then worry sports fans?
-I'm the straw that stirs the drink.........Then I drink the drink too.------You're Welcome.
by ReggieARodJeter on Sep 22, 2009 11:13 PM EDT reply actions
I don't understand
why anyone is worrying about the ALCS.The Yanks need to get out of the ALDS first,and that has been tricky in recent yrs.Teams get lucky for 10 game stretches and it always seems to be the yanks opponent lately.The question should be can Joba be an affective component in the pen for the short series?The Yanks get best record and they will choose the 2 days off so they can go with 3 starters.It is getting close and I hope all you Girardi lovers are correct and he has matured enough not to get out managed.Can’t hardly wait.
by cashman bashman on Sep 23, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions
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