Hold your horses on Aroldis Chapman

by 3460kuri on Sep 21, 2009 5:16 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

Baseball Prospectus wrote an excellent article about him a few months ago:

Money quote:

By comparing the statistics of players who have left Cuba and come to the US—such as Yuniesky Betancourt, Kendry Morales, and Alexei Ramirez—in terms what they've done there and then once they reach the majors, we can get a good idea of the level of play in Cuba. The changes in their statistics suggests that the Cuban level of play is similar to the Low-A leagues here in the US (emphasis added), so something like the South Atlantic or Midwest leagues.

Ouch.

Look up the stats for Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman. Both have powerful arms, excellent "stuff"....and awful control. Both struggled in A ball this season. I wouldn't count on either of them playing a substantial role in the major leagues any time soon. My guess is that most organizations have one or two guys that fit this profile.

How is Chapman any different? Because he's Cuban? Because he throws lefthanded? If you can't throw strikes, it doesn't matter if you're an extra-terrestrial superbeing from Mars who can throw 150 MPH. Even hitters in AA will sit on your pitches and wait until you throw strikes.

International scouting is important, but very few of the big-name signees over the past decade from either Japan or Cuba have ultimately lived up to the hype. My hope is that the Yankees see Chapman for what he is - a young power pitcher with absolutely no control - and realize they already have two of these guys.

0 recs | Comment 12 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Fair

this is a reasonable view. I have heard that the Cuban league is somewhere between A and AA (so a bit higher than you suggest but not close to MLB) and below Japan (somewhere around AAA). With a guy like this it is hard to say-he is reported to be 21, and posted good numbers in Cuba at “19.” I guy with those numbers in A ball at 19 would be exciting to watch if he was in your team’s system. Problem here is that Chapman has not progressed much and has control issues. Not something that you would bet a whole lot of money on.

by Buzzy on Sep 21, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They seem to be saying his age is accurate, or at least “accurate” compared to other Cuban immigrants.

But you said it best: “A guy with those numbers ins A ball at 19 would be exciting to watch”. At 21, though, with those control problems pitching at A ball….not as exciting.

by 3460kuri on Sep 21, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would believe that

every major league baseball team would put a whole lot of money on a guy that reportedly throws 102 MPH and is left handed. That you could bet on. The question is, does he have the ability and work ethic to correct his wildness? Once his mechanics are tweaked and he works hard at his instruction, then I believe he could become something special. Ala, Randy Johnson.

I wonder how much it is going to cost to sign this guy. 75 million? I feel that it will be outrageous.

by BigDanz2000 on Sep 21, 2009 7:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No sure thing

The problem is, though that for every Randy Johnson who eventually gets it together and becomes a legend, there are 10 guys with great stuff who either never learn to throw strikes or get injured. I’m not guaranteeing that Aroldis Chapman won’t be a great pitcher but there’s just no way of knowing which makes throwing 50+ mil at him a bad decision.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Sep 22, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

im not sold on this chapman guy. i just don’t want another jose contreares. i can’t think of many international pitchers who lived up to there name. the closest one might be Dice-K, and even he isn’t as good as he was in japan. but hey, i have a bad memory.

whats a signature

by GTWYankee on Sep 21, 2009 7:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and i hate to use dice-k as and example

whats a signature

by GTWYankee on Sep 21, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"How is Chapman any different?"

1. yes, part of it is that he is lefty.
2. his FB is that special.
3. he’s only 21, so unlike Irabu, Contreras, DiceK, Igawa, he can be refined in the minors with no rush to get him to the Bronx. it’s like drafting a college pitcher.

by Travis G on Sep 22, 2009 12:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Because

You miss the fact that players develop. the low A ball comparason is the general level of the league, but some players that went through the Sally ended up as hall of famers , others never even made it to double A.

Ichiro Suzuki was a very very good player in Japan. so was Hideki Matsui they’re both legendary players in the NPB, which is “only” AAA ish level . yet one of them is now a sure fire no doubter first ballot hall of famer with still many years to go. while the other had a very good but not truely great career in the US that is about to end.

Chapman if he signs is a prospect. just like Jose Contreras was a prospect, Morals / Betancourt etc were all like that. yet Kendry Morales is having a year where he is in the MVP discussion, while Betancourt is one of the worest everyday regulars in the majors. these things are not the same.

prospects that turn out good are the most valuable assets in the majors. Hanely Ramirez IS more valuable than Albert Pujols. because he’s only costing them a couple of M instead of 15+ . but one just have to accept the fact that for every prospect that turn out well, a lot more will bomb into oblivion, that doesnt’ mean you shouldn’t go for every good looking prospect out there at the right price.

by RollingWave on Sep 22, 2009 4:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think the risk

is that his numbers (albeit just ERA) have actually gotten worse the last 3 years, and he has major control issues. Sure, he has an electric arm. The question is-how much would you pay for a guy that appears to not be progressing through the jump years and that likely will require a reworking of mechanics? Team payed upfront for the Contrerases, Matsuzakas, etc because they thought they were getting a close to finished product. Chapman is a different and more interesting story. Posting fee included look for Chapman to cost significantly more than Strasburg. Strasburg throws just as hard, and was/is easier to scout. Strasburg has better command and secondary stuff. Is he worth more than Strasburg? Can’t be just because he is left handed…

by Buzzy on Sep 22, 2009 8:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Side note but..

He’s worth more than Strasburg because he’s not American. I don’t mean to go off on a tangent but it is an absolute farce that major league baseball doesn’t have an international draft. If Steven Strasburg was a free agent he’d have gotten every penny that Boras asked for. It’s hard to feel bad for a guy who just got a $16 mil bonus but I’m sure Strasburg would have rather been a Yankee or Red Sox or Angel or Dodger than a National. The draft is designed to keep the top teams from always getting the top prospects, which is good for baseball, but the way it is now it basically punishes kids for being born in the US.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Sep 22, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs