Pennant Caliber Teams

by jscape2000 on Sep 18, 2009 9:00 AM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

Wednesday was the Yanks' 14th walk-off win of the year, and they've had a ton of come from behind victories this season. To some people that speaks to the team's character, their camaraderie, their chemistry. To others it speaks to a strong offense and weak pitching.

I'm just thinking about what it takes to win the American League Pennant.

Team	RS/G rank	RA/G rank
Rays '08	9th	2nd
BoSox '07	3rd	1st
Tigers '06	5th	1st
ChiSox '05	9th	3rd
BoSox '04	1st	4th
Yanks '03	3rd	3rd
Angels '02	4th	1st
Yanks '01	5th	3rd
Yanks '00	6th	5th
Yanks '99	3rd	2nd

In 7 of the last 10 years, only 3 teams have overcome competition that ranked ahead of them in both offense and defense. The 2000 and 2001 Yankees went into the post season the 3rd best team (trailing the Mariners and the Athletics in both categories). The 2005 White Sox beat the Angels.

The Yankees' offense ranks first in 2009, with the Angels and Boston at 2 and 3. Detroit ranks 10th.

But Yankee pitching only ranks 8th (a tick above league average). Boston is second, Detroit is 5th, and Los Angeles near Anaheim ranks 11th.

If anybody but Boston wins the pennant, it will be at least the weakest pitching (relative to league strength) since the 2000 Yankees, and possibly longer. I know that Mitre and Gaudin won't be getting the ball, that CMW is nowhere near the roster, that Phil Hughes has transformed the bullpen.

But let's not blind ourselves to reality- the Yankees are not as far above the rest of the league as their record suggests (19-14 in 1 run games, 52-23 at home).

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Team ERA is really misleading

Here are the four likely playoff teams ranked by average runs allowed per game:
Boston – 4.4 r/g
Detroit – 4.6 r/g
Yankees – 4.7 r/g
Angels – 4.8 r/g

It’s fun to rank teams, but I’m not sure how big of a different a tenth of a run per game is. Furthermore, team ERA is pretty misleading. Mitre, Wang, and Anthony Clagget have combined to pitch 7% of the team’s total innings yet have given up 15% of the teams total earned runs allowed.

I think it would be better to look at the ERA of only the guys on the playoff roster, as opposed to everyone who’s put the uniform on this year, when sizing up a team’s chances based on it’s pitching.

by 3460kuri on Sep 18, 2009 9:26 AM EDT reply actions

I used r/g.
You’re right about comparing just the top 3 or 4 starters (which you were doing brilliantly in your fanposts). That can be a post for the weekend- I was just looking at some numbers and wanted to share.

On the other hand, the rank within the league does tell us something about the quality of the league. Would it be fair to say that the playoff caliber teams don’t seem as far above their opponents as they have previous years?

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Sep 18, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I haven't run the numbers but...

if you factor out CMW’s crappy starts and the lousy April and May, the r/g is probably much closer.

by django48 on Sep 18, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree

Esp in the ALDS, where it might only be the starting 3, perhaps 4. So perhaps looking at the 4 SP, the closer and 3-4 middle relief/setup men. Maybe that’s a better comparison?

But the overall point of the article is valid. Pitching is key to winning in October, just like defense is key to winning in the NFL post season (for instance, 18-1!)

by coops2001 on Sep 18, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

yanks

this is the best yankee team since 1998,they seem together go places after games. not like when carl i have a hospital wing pavano.and kevin home on the range brown

BIG YANKEE FAN,FROM MASS. HAVE TO PUT UP WIYH ALL THESE HOLE SOX FANS

by JEETS on Sep 18, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions

1-Run Record

It is true that the Yanks are 19-14 (.576) in 1-Run games, but they are 56-25 (.691) in games decided by three runs or less. Many media talking heads use the 1-Run stat as a blanket to cover “close” games. However, “close” games can be defined as ones that can be decided with one swing (grand slam).

Did not wish anyone to think that our Yanks are just above .500 in “close” games. We’re still pretty good. Go Yanks!

by ficktdichjoe on Sep 18, 2009 5:08 PM EDT reply actions