Rosenthal is right -- there is more than one way to judge players
by Ed Valentine on Sep 17, 2009 12:11 PM EDT
in Analysis
39 comments
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote a great piece the other day taking the Sabermetric community to task. At the risk of angering the Sabermetricians among you, I am going to agree with Rosenthal (and yes, I am already seeking places to hide).
Rosenthal's argument relates to this year's American League Most Valuable Player voting. Here is some of what he said.
I'm inclined to agree with the choice of (Minnesota's Joe) Mauer, but that's not why I'm writing. No, I'm writing because of the cyber-shoutdowns of anyone who offers dissent, anyone who dares suggest Derek Jeter, Kevin Youkilis or whoever is a legitimate alternative to Mauer.
There is more than one way to look at this. I can argue for Mauer. I can argue for others. Taking a contrary position does not make me just another unenlightened member of the MSM (translation: mainstream media). But it will subject me to a certain level of scorn for rejecting SGT (translation: sabermetric groupthink).
Don't get me wrong. Sabermetricians have significantly broadened our understanding of baseball — and by "our," I mean fans, media and club personnel, virtually everyone in the game. Advanced statistics reveal not only tendencies, but also greater truths. Smart teams effectively combine sabermetric principles with scouting orthodoxy. Very few, if any, disregard the numbers entirely.
Here's the problem: Sabermetricians were ignored for so long, they had to shout to be heard. Now they are getting heard — properly heard in the highest levels of baseball media and front offices. But some continue to shout, dismissing those who disagree as ignorant dolts.
Last I checked, it's a free country. Last I checked, the MVP is a subjective choice. Yes, voters from the Baseball Writers' Association of America occasionally screw up. But the beauty of the award, as outlined by the instructions given to voters, is "there is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means." Which, of course, drives sabermetricians nuts.
The award is not for highest VORP. It is not for most win shares, most runs created, most wins above replacement player. It is for something that no one can quite define, and — goodness gracious! — voters sometimes apply different interpretations from year to year.
As a diehard Yankee fan, of course, I would love to see Jeter win the MVP. I think he got robbed in 2006 when Justin Morneau was voted the winner.
That's not why I am siding with Rosenthal here, though. I am siding with Rosenthal because I think he is right.
In politics, you simply cannot debate with anyone on the far right or far left of the spectrum. They are right. You are wrong. Because what they believe is right and what you believe is wrong. Why? Because they said so.
It is kind of like that entering into an argument with a Sabermetrician (which, I know, I have stupidly just done). Because a certain set of mysterious statistical calculations says something, you're often judged an idiot if you voice a different opinion.
As Rosenthal has said quite well, I believe, all statistics are useful. What happened to watching the games and using your eyes to form opinions, though?
And now I enter my super-secret hiding place.
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rosenthal, as a card carrying member of
the MSM is bound by narrative. for example, the yankees are good because they have great chemistry. or, the boston red sox are good because they’re tough and gritty. or, the mets suck because they are soft, and don’t care about winning, etc, etc. that’s what sells papers.
the boring truth is that the former two teams are good because they have good hitting and pitching the latter team does not. its quite simple. however, no one wants to read article after article about good hitting and pitching. rather, people seek humanizing stories, and the MSM obliges.
however, he is right in that there are things that cannot be measured. the sabermatrician’s response is to continually try harder and harder to quantify them. science as a whole is about obtaining truth through rigorous experimentation and trial and error. for example, sabermatricians realize that UZR and RZR arent perfect defensive metrics, which is precisely why we are looking into the new batted ball data to come up with something better.
rosenthal’s opinion is that there are some things that can’t be quantified and we should try to because that will take away from the enjoyment of the game. there is an ideological rift here and recognizing that it exists is part of the solution. some people believe that everything, in due time can be quantified. and some people would rather not try. i don’t blame them but i strongly, strongly disagree with that view point. i’m deeply dissatisfied when a writer says player A is better than player B because A is perceived to be a better leader or a gutty, gritty hustler. qualities that are not only based on assumptions but also crafted to sell papers, not win baseball games.
by tombradylikesdudes on Sep 17, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There is no mystery
I imagine the frustration being felt from the sabermetric community results from people with differing opinions claiming, as you do, that advanced metrics are the result of some computer program that is spitting out numbers based on a mysterious formula.
That’s a fallacy based on ignorance – the idea that sabermetricians are computer nerds that don’t actually watch baseball or understand the game.
Rosenthal is right in his point that those who have a vote can vote for whomever they want. He can vote for Brett Tomko for AL MVP if he so chooses. But doing so wouldn’t make him a champion of “voting by subjective opinion” – it would make him a fool.
by DK Jr. on Sep 17, 2009 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Advanced Metrics are great
Because they tell so much more than the traditional stats do.
But you don’t need a stat like WARP3 to tell you that Derek Jeter has been really, really good this year. Or that Joe Mauer is having a phenomenal year. And so the best approach is to use both the new-school and old-school approach. Balance is a wonderful thing.
by 3460kuri on Sep 17, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
I think that is what Rosenthal is saying. And that is my only real reason for jumping into this whole quagmire.
by Ed Valentine on Sep 17, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no you don't need VORP
to tell you that their both having great years.
but, what do you suggest we use to decide that “really, really good” > “phenomenal?”
by tombradylikesdudes on Sep 17, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A mix of
WARP3 and Watching.
Everyone gets to decide his or her own mix.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on Sep 17, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
do these awards mean anything?
If they do, why should we trust subjective opinions? No one can watch every inning of every game, so just “using your eyes to form an opinion” is too subjective. If they don’t mean anything, then why bother writing articles about them?
To take it a step further: Ed, you compared it to a political debate. Clearly, there are many different views on healthcare. Whether the government should be involved in healthcare to the extent proposed by any of the plans currently being floated is, to a certain extent, a moral decision that is subjective. Either you think the government should take a bigger role or you don’t, and no amount of arguing is going to convince you. But whether a particular plan is going to wind up saving money is not subjective – it can be proven or disproven. The MVP debate should be closer to the latter debate. What Derek Jeter has accomplished this year has been outstanding, the Yankees are lucky to have them as their shortstop, and he’s a huge component of the success they’ve had. But by any objective measure, Mauer has been the better player this year. Doesn’t that matter?
by long time listener on Sep 17, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
That’s exactly it, entirely subjective. 20 years from now, could Derek Jeter be thought of as "less of a player’ if never wins the MVP? Probably, and that’s too bad. He has been immeasurably valuable to the club this year, but how can you vote against a line of .374/.441/.610 while playing catcher? Well, people make the case that Mauer missed a month and his team is in second place and likely won’t make the playoffs.
In the NBA the MVP award seems like it now just goes to the best player on the best team, but that just turns into penalizing players for not being surrounded by as quality of players.
by Leviticus6688 on Sep 17, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Furthering that thought,
I feel like voting for an MVP goes from being a win-win situation to a lose-lose situation. Instead of there being now wrong answer, there’s no RIGHT answer. Voters get chastised for voting for everyone because there’s always another guy that ranks ahead in some particular category.
In 2007, when Alex Rodriguez won the MVP with 54 hrs, 156 rbi and line of .314/.422/.645, he received every vote except two. Those two writers both voted for Magglio Ordonez of the Tigers, and they both wrote for the Detroit Free Press. Had the vote been closer and those two voted for Ordonez simply because they watched him every day and he got the award instead of A-Rod, years later Rodriguez might be ranked lower in baseball’s all-time greatest players because of one fewer MVP award.
by Leviticus6688 on Sep 17, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sabermetrics
Are awesome for helping me choose my fantasy baseball team or who to “Force Trade” for in MLB the Show. But to me using the metrics as gospel would be like hiring someone based solely on their resume without meeting the person. Because something is intangible doesn’t mean it is not vital.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Sep 17, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That approach makes sense when you’re building a team – the guy with the best stats may bring enough negatives to the table that it makes sense to go with another player. But the MVP award is supposed to go to the best player, isn’t it?
(As an aside, I’ve never heard anything bad about Mauer. At some point, aren’t you comparing Mauer’s intangibles to Jeter’s? And how do we – or the sportswriters – know who’s a better guy in the clubhouse, for example?)
by long time listener on Sep 17, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well let's consider
Most VALUABLE Player. The name itself is open for interpretation. Is a guy making 400K a year who wins 16 games the most VALUABLE? Is a guy on a team that is not making the playoffs really valuable? What is the definition of valuable? Is it best combination of offense and defense? So a DH can never be the most valuable, or a pitcher? Can a LFer ever be the most valuable player since it’s the position with the least need for defensive skills? What about a guy who hits .350 but hits .250 with RISP vs a guy who hits .250 but hits .350 with RISP? This year the main candidate is Mauer and it should be, he is having a HOF season. But there are legit contenders out there, would the Yankees be in this position to win the AL East if Tex signed elsewhere even if Jeter put these numbers up? I don’t know. But I disagree that stats alone are the only quantifiable factor when determining MVP or Cy Young. I remember posting on Overthemonster when one of the mods said Tex is an AVERAGE fielder. That was a ridiculous statement, as anyone who WATCHES the Yankees every game can attest too. His defense is so good that he increases everyone elses defense around the infield. Last nights pop up catch and rocket throw from his knees to home plate to keep the runner at third is a prime example. What stat exists to define what that single play had on the effect of the game? Hell you could make a case that next to Tex the most VALUABLE player the Yankees have has been Swisher this season. He is no Mauer, Tex or Jeter but what he has done for the Yankees with his bat and walks and the intangibles he has brought to the team have made him extremely valuable.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Sep 17, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the end...
It’s up to the individuals who vote on the award to decide who they want- and they probably have their mind made up at this point. I am not sure what Rosenthal hopes to achieve with this article.
I think Mauer is the MVP but not because somebody else is telling me that… blah blah blah…
Good for you Rosenthal, here’s a cookie.
by NumberSeven on Sep 17, 2009 3:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
But don’t tell me that baseball value — like porn and art — is something you know when you see. That has been the problem for years, this idea that we can just invent our own standards and yardsticks and touchstones because … well, who is going to stop us? No. Value is value. Saying an eight is more valuable than an ace in poker doesn’t make it so.*
That last statement is stupid plain and simple and basically ended any semblance of credibility Posnanski has in my eyes. Saying an eight is more valuable than an ace is a lie. Plain and simple. There is a set structure and a linear progression with no room for interpretation. This has no bearing what so ever on this case. When you say Value is Value but have no concrete, universally agreed upon metric then you basically are using catch phrases with no merit to back you up. You can NOT have a stringent definition of VALUE when it comes to an athelete in comparison to another athelete especially when comparing players against other players in 1) other teams and 2) different positions. There are so MANY stat metrics that for someone to say THESE stats mean Most Value is ludicrous. What is MORE valuable? A hitter who hits .320 and drives in 100 runs on a team who leads all of baseball in runs scored, whose contribution in important but not vital? Or a pitcher who wins 19 games on a team that has mediocre rotation, but his wins get that team into the playoffs? No one is denying Mauer, he has been putting up an INCREDIBLE season. But lets remove him from the equation because he is SO good this season. Who would be the MVP front runner? What would have Tex be ranked higher or lower than Jeter or Youkillis? And with one basis would you use? BA? RBI? HR? Fielding stats? It then has to become a more feathered judgement call with less defined boundaries. Because you are then comparing apples, oranges, potatoes, bacon and trying to determine Most Valuable Food. Each one has a strong case for consideration but there is no specific metric that can make an indisputable claim as being THE metric. So with all things being equal you have to use intangibles. Does this guy make the other guys around him BETTER? Is he clutch? Has he come up in BIG games? None of these have stats. Hitting with RISP doesn’t mean clutch, clutch means getting a run in when it matters the most. Stats seem to be on a per game basis and do not take into account all the myriad of x-factors and big picture situations. Whats more clutch? Hitting with the bases loaded and driving in 3 runs when your team is down in the 5th against a weaker team? Or hitting a tying run in the bottom of the 8th against a playoff contending team while your team is vying for the WC or Division? To try and remove the human element of perception and simply use mathematical analysis to determine worth is useless. Stats should be the bedrock in which cases can be made for each player in contention, but then it is up to the writers to see the forest for the trees.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Sep 17, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check out
Neyer, Posnanski, Driveline Mechanics, and Crashburn Alley for a different and better take on this.
by James Kannengieser on Sep 17, 2009 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
WAY OFF TOPIC
But did anybody catch sportsnation today on ESPN2? Our friend Skip was ripping the yankees bascially the whole show.. and of coure by my suprise placing the RS on a pedistal.. ridiculous
by Yankz09 on Sep 17, 2009 7:51 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
i dont agree the tje mvp award goes to the best player...
Doesn’t it go to the most valuable?….oh wait…there no real set definition of most valuable in sports anymore. I understand the concept of having people debate opinions and there own subjective thoughts on the matter I mean…..that’s the beauty of being a fan or for that matter…..even a play. But if something should be defined in my opinion….it should be the most valuable player. Lebron james got the mvp award last year…..I personally felt dwayne wade should have gotten it, but I think 2 main factors had a lot to do with him getting it…number 1…media attention…number 2…..better team with the better record….this same thing goes on with most sports…only one who has it right is hockey and football. There no dbt derek jeter., the future hall of fame and legend that he is…is have a great year…..but let’s not do to maur what the nba fans did to d wade. Maur is clearly more valuable to his team then jeter. Without him it would be a one man morneau show. By the way speaking of skip bayless….that man hates us…..it gonna take us stuffing a championship down his throat to shut him up. My giants shut him up for a while. So I’m happy about that lol
by NYYWinsRings26 on Sep 17, 2009 8:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
valuable
Isn’t the player who helps his team score the most runs and and prevent the other team from scoring the most runs the most valuable? Because there are stats (somewhat flawed, of course, but still useful) that measure these things.
Some people want to go with the intangibles argument – but how much do they really matter? There are a lot of guys out there who are praised for their intangibles, leadership, clutch hitting, work ethic, etc., who are not good players on the field. Does their personality in the clubhouse really inspire everyone to be that much better?
I do agree that everyone’s entitled to an opinion, as long as they can back it up reasonably well. Derek Jeter is not a completely unreasonable choice for MVP, although I still think mauer deserves it.
On another note, regarding rosenthal’s argument: he says how the award is not for the statistically best player. Well, who is it for? Sure, scouting and watching the game can tell us some things, but it is limited – I kind of doubt that many people have seen every inning played by mauer, jeter, and the other mvp contenders. That means that the number of hits, home runs, etc. they see each player get is not necessarily reflective of how good they are – the difference between a .300 hitter and a .350 hitter may not show up very clearly in fractions of their playing time, and it certainly won’t remain in your memory after those games pass.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
And celebrating the achievements of others' adoptees, Joey Martinez and Nate Schierholtz
by raisingcain on Sep 17, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I give the most valuable player to the guy who helps separate his team from the other playoff contenders.
The Hank Aaron award goes to the most prolific hitter.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on Sep 17, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But is that Jeter
or Tex? Or A-Rod? Or Sabbathia? Or Rivera?
For ex., A-Rod is going to get close to 30/100 this year, and the Yankees have played >.700 ball since he got back…wouldn’t you have to say he’s the team’s MVP?
by PortlandYankee on Sep 17, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup.
With out a shadow of a doubt, A-Rod is the MVP of the Yankees.
We don’t know what the team would be like without Tex or Jeet…but we do know what they were without A-Rod (and Tex himself for that matter).
That doesn’t mean that way of thinking isn’t flawed…it is. But to me, you cannot argue with the way the team has played once he came back.
His individual stats of course don’t match up, but that whole .700 ball thing? That’s an insane winning %.
What the f$%k is the internet?
by FreeBradshaw on Sep 18, 2009 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you automatically rule out all players on non-contenders? Players on bad teams can make their teams much better, they just can only move them up from absolutely horrible to mediocre. It’s not their fault if the other players are bad.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
And celebrating the achievements of others' adoptees, Joey Martinez and Nate Schierholtz
by raisingcain on Sep 19, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sabermetrics...MVP
First of all…I’ll take the opinions of Rosenthal who actually speaks with teams everyday over McCarver & Morgan who don’t & have lost touch of today’s game.
However, the saber stuff has some relevance, but not to the extent everyone believes it does. Bottom line, some it’s concepts are built from “regular” stats. Yes, it helps with fielding & a couple of secondary hitting stats. Other than that, it’s overhyped. And the hardcore proponents of it claim that everyone in the front office uses it as a Bible. I know for a fact that it’s not true. I have several friends that work for a handful of organizations plus I’ve also been fortunate enough to work with a couple of announcers at the beginning of my radio career that are now #1 guys calling games for a couple of different teams.
MLB front office people at most….use the saber stuff to help with about 10% of the decision making or stat using part of any player or team discussion. The rest is based on what they see on the field, coaches notes, regular stats, & how that info works with their views & beliefs in creating a successful team.
Stats or not…here’s my top 3:
Jeter…one of the best years of his career at age 35, batting leadoff for the entire year. Hits over .330 with near career highs with power numbers, good number of steals, runs scored, best fielding pct. among SS, & carried his team on 2 separate lengthy stretches from June thru late August from 5 back to 9 games up (at one point). He played hurt with foot & leg injuries & still kicked ass!
Mauer…killer avg., his power numbers are equaled or surpassed by as many as 3 guys on his team & was not an overall dominant player on the field. Yeah, it’s a little special for a catcher to hit .370. A lot of it’s hype though…no question. Based on the stats not being overwhelming & how his team has played…he’s not gonna get it.
Tex…could even finish 2nd. Obviously, his lineup presence & quality hitting gets him a lot of mention. Clearly the best def. 1B in the Bronx since Mattingly, I love watching Tex pick hard one-hoppers out of the dirt & stepping on the bag.
Last…I think the players should count for 75% of votes, managers 15%, & one elite media member from each market gets the other 10% of the vote. It becomes a more valued award from their peers instead of a media-hyped semi witch hunt!
by JustinS1 on Sep 17, 2009 10:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Your anti-Mauer argument is a little ridiculous
1. You’re killing Mauer for having less power than three other guys on his team…but Jeter has less power than SEVEN other guys on his team!
2. You say Mauer’s stats aren’t overwhelming???? In addition to having the best offensive season in the AL, Mauer is having the best offensive season at his position…EVER. Jeter isn’t even the best shortstop in the AL by OPS this year…that would be Michael Young.
3. Mauer plays average to above average defense at the hardest position in baseball.
4. If you took away Jeter, how many wins would the Yankees still manage with Tex, A-Rod, Matsui, Sabbathia, and Rivera all having huge years? If you took away Mauer, how would the Twins be doing with just Morneau, Kubel, and Joe Nathan?
by PortlandYankee on Sep 17, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeter got screwed in 2006
No doubt. That doesn’t mean Mauer should get screwed in ‘09, considering he’s having an absolutely historic season at his position.
by PortlandYankee on Sep 17, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anti-Mauer is ridiculous???
Portland…
First of all….Michael Young plays 3rd! Next, there’s been other catchers with better power numbers.
Lemme breakdown my POV a little more:
(By month…avg./HR/RBI)
Mauer
May .414/11/32
June .353/3/11
July .309/4/14
August .391/8/23
Sept. .423/1/7
Overall .374/27/87
Jeter
Apr. .287/4/12
May .321/3/13
June .310/2/7
July .357/2/11
Aug. .377/6/17
Sept. .295/0/4
Overall .330/17/64
Jeter hits .368 with 8/28 in July & August, Mauer hits .354 with 12/37. That’s important since it correlates with the Yanks drive to the pennant while the Twins treaded water. That is a MAJOR point when the voters break down each guy’s body of work for the season.
Jeter by position is:
1st in avg., runs (over 100), hits (6 away from 200), HR’s, steals, OBP,
2nd in RBI’s by 1, walks, OPS, SLG
3rd in doubles
Mauer by position is:
1st in runs, hits, OBP, OPS, SLG., & avg.
2nd in RBI, walks
3rd in doubles
So…overall, it’s pretty much a wash by position. But Jeter wins this award because of this important factor, his performance in the lineup as the leadoff guy & how it affected those below him (Damon-career year, Tex-monster year, Alex-good year, Matsui-good year, Swisher-good year) in the order. His defense leads the league. He led his team to an incredible run from June-early Sept. which brought them to 40 games over .500. If he still posts the same numbers and the race is closer, it’s even more of an edge for him!
Mauer’s supporting cast of Cuddyer (.274/26/78), Morneau (.274/30/100), Kubel (.302/23/84) doesn’t help him separate himself from them in the power number sense. It makes his avg. standout more in the overall work.
You claim that Mauer is having the best season ever as a catcher? Wrong! I-Rod has AL record for HR’s by a catcher (35 in 1999). Javy Lopez has all-time with 42 in 2003. If he finishes above .362, he will have the avg. for catchers. Roy Campanella set the RBI record in 1953 with 142 RBI’s.
Take away Jeter overall….might be a 5 win difference. Take him out of leadoff spot, a little more than that. Take away Mauer…his team would be even at best.
Finally…as I finish typing this…Mike Franseca is talking with Bert Blyleven who does all the Twins games on Fox Midwest. BB says that Jeter is the favorite because of his overall body of work & that the Twins need to make the playoffs in order to help Mauer’s chances. In addition, he details how Morneau & the other guys have protected Mauer in the lineup all season.
YOU CAN’T PROTECT A LEADOFF HITTER, HE’S IN THAT POSITION TO BE AN OFFENSIVE CATALYST!!!
I rest my case…
by JustinS1 on Sep 18, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Young does play 3B...forgot about that
…admittedly, though this is a new thing.
As to the rest:
1. The main indicator for an offensive season is NOT HR, R, or RBI, it’s OPS or OPS+, which measure’s a player’s complete offensive production, independent of his team.
Joe Mauer, by OPS (1.051), has been the best offensive player in the AL this year. He beats Jeter by 150 points!
By position, Joe Mauer’s OPS+ (182) is currently tied for 155th all time…it is the highest EVER by a catcher…Johnny Bench’s best season (2nd among catchers) is 166.
It’s not all about HR.
2. We have a way to identify which player is the least replaceable, and hence the “most valuable”….it’s called VORP! It compares a player’s offensive performance to the average performance at that position.
2009
Mauer (1st) 84.4
Jeter (2nd) 60.2
Miggy Cabrera (3rd) 55.6
Compare this to 2006, when the case for Jeter was far more legitimate:
Jeter (1st) 78.9
Hafner (2nd) 77.9
Ortiz (3rd) 75.6
Morneau (13th) 52.7
It was ridiculous for Morneau to win that award…even if we throw out DHs, there were plenty of position players who had better seasons. You’re making the mistake that the writers made in 2006…you’re confusing HR, R, and RBI with offensive production.
There is no debate, statistically, Joe Mauer is the AL player whose offensive absence would be missed the most this year.
3. As for your argument that Jeter is “worth” 5 wins and Mauer is not…well that’s not supported by any evidence.
Batting Win Share: Mauer 5.2 (1st), Jeter not in the Top 10.
The evidence suggests that Mauer was worth 5 additional offensive wins for his weaker team this year…Jeter was not even worth 2 additional offensive wins to his loaded team.
4. The MVP is not, and should not, be a lifetime achievement award. That’s what the Hall of Fame is for.
by PortlandYankee on Sep 18, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Portland...you're a nice guy, but here's a reality check!
I’ll bet my entire family’s assets 10-1 vs. yours on the following:
1. 90% of the award voters will not significant factor in Sabermetrics in determining who they will vote for.
2. Nowhere in my argument did I focus on power numbers, especially HR’s in mentioning who was best. Did you not see the breakdown head to head by month not to mention position by position what each guy’s stats is?
3. For you to suggest that the ultimate deciding factor in this vote is OPS, is completely one of the most ridiculous things I’ve EVER seen written on any sports board.
4. To say that a career #2 hitter, that for the 1st time in his career bats leadoff for an entire season, while producing outstanding numbers doesn’t carry more weight than a #3 hitter that’s protected for 3 other guys behind him…is like saying a set-up guy doesn’t help a closer get saves.
5. Jeter batting leadoff in a specifically designed lineup that maximizes his hitting ability is far more valuable to a team’s day to day offensive productivity than a #3 hitter getting fastballs to hit .371 from with other guys behind him that have equal or better power numbers. If I took your POV on this, then Tex would be the frontrunner instead of Jeter. As you’ve seen, the media is focusing more on Mauer & Jeter since they’ve made the bigger impacts everyday. Tex’s great year is directly related to how well Cabrera, Jeter, & Damon hit before him and what pitchers have to deal with after him with A-Rod, Matsui, Posada, & Swisher.
6. Jeter needs 3 more bombs for 20, to make it 8 guys in that lineup with 20 or more homers….that’s never been done before. Another example of how the Yanks lineup with him leading off is so damn dangerous & how valuable he is in his slot.
7. I can make the comparison about wins based on what’s happened in the last 2 years with Damon & others leading off vs. what Jeter has done this year. Damon’s last 4 years have been more productive than what he did in Boston the previous 4. His stats this year are near the best of his career! Even if we go 7-8 to finish, this team’s win total will be the best since 2003 & 2004 when they won 101 in those years. It’s been 95, 94, 97, & 89 the last 4 years. This year’s improvement is due to lineup & better pitching.
8. The MVP is based on a single season body of work, mostly offensive, some defensive, & how a team finishes based on the productivity of the award contenders. Mauer matches up…but his overall affect (mainly overblown due to his batting avg.) doesn’t outweigh Jeter’s!
Sabermetrics does have some positive value in certain areas. But it’s widely considered to be a minority factor when it comes to measuring a player’s production, value, and ability. I know this, I work in the media & have friends that work for both major & minor league teams in the front office & on the air.
No GM lies awake at night worrying about his star player’s VORP!
by JustinS1 on Sep 18, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re #1. Maybe they won’t, but more of them should.
2. You said “there’s been other catchers with better power numbers” and then listed month by month home runs (and some people who use rbi’s consider them a power stat (run production).
3. I agree OPS is not a great stat, but it is better than the RBI’s you used in your analysis.
4. Do you really think it’s that hard to move up one lineup spot? Some teams shuffle the order around every day. Not a big deal, they’re both top of the order. And btw, you say mauer is backed up by 3 guys behind him…jeter is backed up by about 5 guys behind him, compare the lineups (if you want to put a lot of weight in lineup protection).
6. 7 other guys having 20 homers somehow is b/c of him? Their rbi’s are, not really their home runs.
8. both his ba and obp are .044 higher than jeter’s, that’s pretty significant, not overblown
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
And celebrating the achievements of others' adoptees, Joey Martinez and Nate Schierholtz
by raisingcain on Sep 19, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, not everybody working in baseball understands every single area of the game perfectly. I witness this every day as a giants fan as bruce bochy fills out the lineup card.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
And celebrating the achievements of others' adoptees, Joey Martinez and Nate Schierholtz
by raisingcain on Sep 19, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Read the post I made before that one you responded to
I-Rod has best HR in a season in AL with 35. Javy Lopez holds all-time record for HR by a catcher in a year with 42 in 2003.
Campanella has held single season RBI record for 50 plus years
by JustinS1 on Sep 19, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Power’s not everything, and home runs aren’t the only part of power. So are extra base hits. Lopez hit for more power that year than mauer this year, but rodriguez didn’t. And long-lasting records are cool, but rbi’s are not always an indicator of skill.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
And celebrating the achievements of others' adoptees, Joey Martinez and Nate Schierholtz
by raisingcain on Sep 20, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Michael Young plays third base
yep.
by bronxbomber_22 on Sep 18, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the gordian knot
Take a saber…whack!
Howard Cosell said ’Statistics are for losers…"
He was speaking before the beancounting culture won the current battle with us right-brainers.
Jeter wins, hands down. Nobody has meant more to his team, and means more to this team.
I’m never inclined to agree with ESPN, but one of those underfed-looking guys,
responding to the goof-balls who refer to Jete as over-rated, corrected the masses by referring to Jeter as an
‘underrated’ player.
I concur, because, as my friends Scott says, ‘he ALWAYS comes through in the clutch.’ Justin Morneau? Feh.
A consistent hitter, but when did he produce a timely GW of any great importance?
ejs
by ericjs on Sep 17, 2009 11:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
always?
.271 w/ RISP
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5406/situational
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
And celebrating the achievements of others' adoptees, Joey Martinez and Nate Schierholtz
by raisingcain on Sep 19, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MVP
is a somewhat antiquated term (the award was created in the ‘20s). i believe it’s merely a synonym for ‘best player,’ and that’s how voters vote in the NFL and NBA.
by Travis G on Sep 18, 2009 12:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
left is right
Hey I was agreeing with you until that part at the end where you said that leftists are as rabid as right-wingers. That’s just not true! And if you disagree with me, you’re flat-out wrong (because I’m right!).
by 209209 on Sep 18, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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