What a difference three slots can make

by Travis G on Aug 6, 2009 7:00 AM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

I remember watching the 2007 MLB draft on ESPN. The Yankees had the 30th pick. A New Jersey high-school pitcher (considered the best prep-pitcher in the draft) was still on the board in the mid-20s. Every Yankee fan knew that if Detroit didn't pick him at 27 (for signability issues; he's repped by Scott Boras), he would fall to the Yankees at 30.

Detroit made the smart move and took Rick Porcello. The Yanks settled on a more promising, though less polished collegiate pitcher named Andrew Brackman. While Porcello was seen as the better all-around pitcher (healthier, better repertoire, better mechanics), Brackman had the higher ceiling (fastball that touched the high 90s with an occasionally devastating knuckle-curve to go along with a 6'10" frame: right-handed Randy Johnson potential).

Two years later, 20-year-old Porcello is one of the front-runners for Rookie of the Year while 23-year-old Brackman is struggling to make it through Low-A ball.

Porcello in the American League: 105.1 ip, 4.36 ERA, 115 H, 35 BB, 55 K, 1.35 GB/FB

Brackman in the South Atlantic League: 88.2 ip, 6.70 ERA, 92 H, 66 BB, 85 K, 25 WP

Can Porcello maintain that ERA with such a low K-rate? His FIP is 5.15. Regardless, to do what he's done at the age of 20 is mighty impressive.

Brackman's 66 walks (6.7 BB/9 ip) and 25 wild pitches are terrible; the good news is his solid K-rate (8.6 K/9 ip). And we must remember that he's coming off Tommy John Surgery, and generally the last trait to return is control. His ML ceiling-comp is Randy Johnson, who had 327 walks in 418.1 innings (7 BB/9 ip) moving through Montreal's MiL system, and didn't become a good pitcher until the age of 26, this third year in the Bigs.

So while there's still a ways to go before Brackman becomes a 'bust', Porcello is certainly making the Tigers happy with their choice (and that they had a worse record than the Yanks in 2006. What a joke that is: a team that wins the pennant picks ahead of a team they beat in the LDS?)

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Comments

The draft needs several revisions ...

The first revision is that the teams that make the playoffs should be the final eight teams picking in the draft, with the teams that make the LCS picking after the teams that lost in the LDS, and the teams that make the WS picking after the teams they beat in the LDS. With respect to ranking the teams that lost in the LDS and LCS, go to their regular season record. But a team that makes the LCS shouldn’t be picking ahead of the team they beat in the LDS (unless they made a trade for another team’s rights to a pick).

The second is that foreign born players should be subjected to a draft as well. It is absolutely ridiculous that foreign born players get to sidestep the draft, and sign as free agents with the highest bidder.

by .ryan on Aug 6, 2009 8:09 AM EDT reply actions

Anyone have more revisions to the MLB draft? n/t

by .ryan on Aug 6, 2009 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions

And NBA system

where the slots they are to pay at are in stone. Maybe cut a few years back on arbitration to give to the other side that would want to get a bigger payday should they actually produce at the MLB level.

I love the idea there are no trades, the Yankees and the Red Sox would somehow have the top 10 picks every year if they did that.

Everything you said too…

by FreeBradshaw on Aug 6, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Cashman drafts damaged goods...

…blame the draft process.

I hear there’s a kid who needs spinal fusion surgery that Cash is really high on for next year.

by New York Sports Jerk on Aug 6, 2009 8:58 AM EDT reply actions

Brackman's still got potential

and he’s a 10x better prospect than anyone drafted behind him.

I would have loved to have Porcello, but in reality the Tigers should never have gotten him cuz he never should have fallen that far (also, Brackman should have never fallen that far either).

Joba turned out OK I guess and he was a similar situation to Brackman, so we’ll see what goes on. He’s got a longer road to recovery, but if he recovers the Yanks got a steal at the back end of the draft.

by FreeBradshaw on Aug 6, 2009 9:09 AM EDT reply actions

that is true

in a perfect world (where signability matters not), both guys go in the top 10. but it’s become such a major issue in the MLB draft that it sometimes prevents ‘cheaper’ teams from picking the best talent.

by Travis G on Aug 6, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Who

would have thought given the infallibility of the Red Sox that they would be the ones to lost 2 game before the World August Series and the Yanks would beat Halladay and “The guy who’s last name looks like the top of my Keyboard”, a very good rookie pitcher no less?

I guess this is a must win game for the Yanks, but its actually more so for the Pissants. I think I was one to mention back at the end of the last series, going 0-8 against these dorks really doesn’t mean squat, and the way I feel about the Yankees right now? No, I could really give a rats ass about the record against them.

Of course I want to beat them just like I wanna win against every team.Now, do the Yanks let em back in or put them out of their misery?

by FreeBradshaw on Aug 6, 2009 9:33 AM EDT reply actions

Still to Early

I think its still premature to call this guy a bust. He is still 23 years old and it takes longer for a big man to work out their mechanics and is still recovering from his surgery. The potential is definitely there. This is his first season from surgery so he should get a pass this year. Next year we should get a better idea what we have with Brackman.

by yankee1977 on Aug 6, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions

The MLB draft

is not the NFL draft. You take the best player available regardless. The Yanks can afford to take risks on guys like Brackman where as other teams have to make the safe play.

by ryanwk628 on Aug 6, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions