CC's changeup

by Travis G on Aug 30, 2009 10:51 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

Coming into this season, it seemed CC Sabathia's main weapons were a mid-90s fastball and a sharp, deceptive slider. But this year has been a bit different: he's using his changeup (and fastball) with greater effectiveness than ever before. In fact, his changeup is the best in the entire American League, while his fastball ranks fifth best.

His pitch selection has been quite different from the previous two years - he's throwing fewer sliders (20.1%) and changeups (17.8%) than in either 2007 or '08. That naturally means that he's throwing more fastballs, which he is (62.1%).

What's most surprising is that his fastball is better than it's ever been. According to FanGraphs, his fastball has saved .59 runs for every 100 times it's been thrown. It was never better than .47 in any previous season.

His fastball is enjoying a symbiotic relationship with his changeup, which is also more effective than at any previous time (saving 3.65 runs/100 thrown). This makes sense, as the fastball sets up the changeup, and vice versa. But why are these pitches so effective this year while the slider is not? I have a few theories:

1. Perhaps it's being mandated from Girardi/Cashman because breaking pitches are more stressful on the arm than fastballs/changeups, and in the first year of a (potential) seven-year deal, the Yankees want to ensure Sabathia's long-term viability.

2. Another is that his slider is just not as effective as in years past (a scary though that could mean injury), so he's had to use it less. This one I don't believe (or don't want to).

3. Maybe his slider was so good last year (3.56 runs saved/100) that the book on him may be to look slider - realizing that, he's resorted to using the changeup as his out-pitch.

4. The last theory is simply that his changeup is better now. It has improved each of the last five years, and he has more than 2000 pro innings under his extra-large belt, so it's reasonable to assume he's been improving it and that it's now surpassed the slider as his best pitch.

Or it could just be all of the above. Whatever it is, keep throwing it CC.

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Comments

That changeup and fastball is going to carry him to the cy young

by NYYWinsRings26 on Aug 30, 2009 11:17 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

I'm not by any means trying to troll, but

AL Pitchers with better ERAs than CC (in order): Greinke, Felix, E. Jackson, Halladay, Washburn, Feldman and Verlander

AL Pitchers with better FIPs than CC (in order): Greinke, Verlander, Halladay, Lester and Felix

AL Pitchers with better tRAs than CC (in order): Greinke, Verlander, Felix, Lester, Halladay, Baker, Contreras and Brett Anderson

There’s no way CC deserves a Cy Young this year.

me so cool

by Humongo on Aug 31, 2009 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions

completely agree!!! we will probably snake an AL MVP (well maybe not with all the nasty anti yankees bias) but there is no chance CC gets the cy young … shit race but it still seems to be grienke

by blindmole on Aug 31, 2009 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions

You can make cases for Cy Youngs

and MVP’s every year who aren’t the best in the league that year.

Does he DESERVE it? Hell yea, he’s been as advertised this season. Has he been the best pitcher in the AL? No, obviously not.

thing the voters look at is wins and ERA, not FIP or tRA. CC’s leading the league in wins and has a pretty low ERA.

GODZZIIIIIRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!

by FreeBradshaw on Aug 31, 2009 6:49 AM EDT up reply actions

that 1.

is supposed to say #1. I don’t know why it does that….

GODZZIIIIIRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!

by FreeBradshaw on Aug 31, 2009 6:50 AM EDT up reply actions

The pound sign converts to a numbered list

by YanksFanSince64 on Aug 31, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not so sure that's it's any of those things

It’s possible that the batters are having more trouble seeing the ball out of CC’s hand (that’s not a joke on his weight). I think he’s hiding the ball more as he is in the wind-up so the batters are having less time. There is the added possibility that the defense behind him is just better than it has been in previous years. Some hits that were bleeders with his time on the Brewers and the Indians before, or hard ground balls to first (especially) and third that would have gotten through and would have led to runs being scored, have less a chance to get through than before. I’m not saying that’s what it is, I’m just bringing up the possibility that either could be the reason.

by IDCWhoYouLike on Aug 30, 2009 11:30 PM EDT reply actions

Great Post

I read it quick, but its gave alot to think about.
The delivery theory is what I think helps his change the most. It was also nice to see in his last start, that the velocity was going up later in the game. A good workhorse indeed!

-I'm the straw that stirs the drink.........Then I drink the drink too.

by ReggieARodJeter on Aug 31, 2009 12:49 AM EDT reply actions

It's the NYC tap water

by BigSlim on Aug 31, 2009 1:27 AM EDT reply actions

That changeup is nasty

It surprises me how well it works. His changeup is faster than Mike Mussina’s fastball was last year, and yet people are way in front of it every time. I’m with you. Keep throwing it CC!

by nyyrocks29 on Aug 31, 2009 10:58 AM EDT reply actions