Thinking About 16-12

by jscape2000 on Aug 3, 2009 7:00 AM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

I didn't get to this sooner because I was relocating to the Garden State, but another month has ended so it's time to review the Yanks' performance and to establish a baseline for success for August.

I said last month that the Yanks should make up ground in July, and I called for a 16-11 month. Instead, they pounded the competition and went 18-9. They got swept by the Angels, but then they swept the Tigers and squeaked by the Twins.

Following the cliche about beating the bad teams, I keep looking for .600 ball against the guys below a .550 winning percentage and .500 baseball against the contenders.

Through the end of July, I asked the Yankees to go 63-42. Their actual record was 62-41, and they had sole possession of first place in the division with a pair of rainouts still to replay. I'm surprised at how accurate this cliche has turned out to be.

August figures to be a tough month, though:
5 with the White Sox (2 already played)
5 with Toronto
7 with Boston
4 with Seattle
3 with Oakland
3 with Texas
1 with Baltimore

That's 15 games with contenders, plus 5 games against a Toronto team that would be a perennial October club if they played in any division but the AL East. The Yanks are going to need to really clean up against Oakland, Seattle, and Baltimore or we could be remembering August as the month the wheels came off. On the other hand, a hot streak right now could seal the division like the 2006 Boston Massacre.

On the bright side, the travel schedule seems to favor the Yanks for a change. The Yanks play 13 of the their 28 games at home, and the road games include all the non-contenders. At least there's an off-day between finishing in Oakland (10 PM start EST!) before heading to Boston at the end of the month. It means that both home-stands are tough ones (Boston Toronto followed by Texas Chicago).

Following my formula, I'm looking for 16-12, but I realize that with Toronto in the 'non-contender' category it could be uglier than that. This is the month we finally answer the questions about the 2009 Yankees.

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Comments

I agree

This is a big month. Especially those games against the Red Sox. This four game set coming up is VERY important. Something good for us is that we get to see both Smoltz and Bucholtz in that series. I could see us taking 3 out of 4 if we take just one of the two games Beckett and Lester are pitching. We have the pitching advantage in this series. We need to be able to get it done though. Beating the Red Sox is very important, because chances are if we make the ALCS, the Red Sox are our opponent. So we need to beat them. It is crucial.

by nyyrocks29 on Aug 3, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions

I Think It's...

1. Smoltz Vs Joba
2. Beckett Vs Burnett
3. Clay Vs CC
4. Lester Vs Andy

This Series Is VERY BIG

by Yankz09 on Aug 3, 2009 11:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

How about we start by taking ONE?

Obviously, winning 3 of 4 would be great, but I’m not stupid enough to predict something like that when the Yanks are 0-8 and have been humiliated by quality teams all year long.

I’d settle for a split. Anything worse than that and we’ll know what a bunch of paper tigers the Yankees are.

by New York Sports Jerk on Aug 3, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

by Hood on Aug 3, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

This IS a BIGTIME month. The West Coast trip,where the Yanks are traditionally mediocre,isn’t quite as important as the division games….but important.

August is the month to truly see what this team is all about. No more:

- Its still “early”………….. BS
- “he’s still a young pitcher and learning how to pitch”………….. crap
- “he just isn’t hitting”…………….. garbage
- “he isn’t playing well”…………….. doo-doo
- “he was up in the zone”……….horseshit
(Fill in your Joe Girardi quips and excuses after terrible losses here)

As I’ve said since spring training,the team being fielded is just too good to settle for less. And you could say the same thing the last 4-5 years also,but chemistry is no longer an issue to fall back on.The importance of this month couldn’t be greater and I’m sure the entire organization
realizes that. GO YANKS!!!!!———I would hate to have my cause of death to read: Catastrophic Sports Choke Syndrome.

by ReggieARodJeter on Aug 3, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions

I like this...

I like how you put this together, Jscape. It frames the season in distinct, shortened windows that provided much needed perspective. I know I often get lost in the “we’re only 0.5 game up!” or “we have to go .600 the rest of the season!!” arguments.

I’m interested to see how the SP shakes out these next 28 games. Once we hit September, a #5 SP can be worked around, or even completely out of the rotation. But this month we may be suffering through a few Mitre/AAA beatdowns.

"We're only going to score 17 points?" ~ Tom Brady

by mwilli on Aug 3, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Aug 3, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions

August

I agree. And, as Reggie used to say, ‘the season doesn’t start until August 20.’

Absolutely, mwilli, Mitre – Sheeesh!

Given time and a consistent production from starters 1-4, this will be a very tough team. Now is the time to pitch mean. CC and AJ are both brilliant, but manic-depressive. I’d love to know which one will show up on a given day.

Of course, any quality 5th starter will do wonders for the rest of the season and take pressure off everyone.

Esp. Joba and Andy. Those who are guys that stop the bleeding if the Two go into melt-down.
Conversely, the 5 spot – is the weak link – will wreak havoc with consistency and the Yankees have been a streaky team this year.

Perhaps, jscape, the goal is – win the division, take home field.

ejs

by ericjs on Aug 3, 2009 5:31 PM EDT reply actions

The hitting with RISP

has to improve. I’ve probably said that 100 times on this post but it may be the reason the Yanks are not 6 or 7 games up. They’ve compensated with the long ball. They are number 1 in the league in OBP and Slugging percentage and what this tells me is that the homers make up for the lack of “Clutch Hitting” and that they get so many chances over the course of a game to score that they might go like 4-16 with RISP but they’re will be a three run homer and maybe some run scoring grounders and sac flies. The Angels are numer 2 in OBP and Slugging percentage, but they are a distant number 2 in slugging percentage. Or rather .471 versus .451. and .359 versus .353 in OBP The Angels have 40 fewer homers than the Yanks and 24 fewer doubles, but have scored 8 more runs and are batting .290 to the Yanks .277. They’ve stolen 36 more bases than us and are hitting 308 with RISP to our 261. It’s the homers people. It’s the homers and amount of scoring opportunities per game that are helping us get by. I would not want Swisher, Cano or A-Rod up with RISP, and Posada’s bat has really slowed down. He needs to try to hit good heat up the middle or the other way. Remember the series in Anaheim. We could not stop them from getting a key hit at any moment. I don’t want to play them in the playoffs.

by chambliss76 on Aug 3, 2009 7:18 PM EDT reply actions

A-Rod

has actually hit well with RISP this year. He’s had some big hits. How could you not want A-Rod up in ANY given spot? He’s still A-Rod isn’t he? A-Rod’s the best player in the AL, and I would want him up there in any spot, since he can change a game with one swing, and take it to all fields.

As far as the Angels, I COMPLETELY agree with you. I do NOT want to have to play them in the postseason and get eliminated by them for the THIRD time this decade. Let the Red Sox deal with them. I think the Angels are better than the Red Sox to be honest, and plus the Halos have absolutely owned us for the last 13+ years. No, that can’t happen. We need to win the East. That would match us up with whoever wins the AL Central. Personally, for that reason, I’m rooting for the Twins to win the central!

by nyyrocks29 on Aug 3, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions