The MVP Debate
by jscape2000 on Aug 20, 2009 11:00 AM EDT
in Analysis
30 comments
Much has been written, much has been said.
3 of Rob Neyer's 4 options are first basemen Miguel Cabrera (.334/.400/.551), Mark Teixeira (.283/.381/.557), and Justin Morneau (.298/.386/.555). I think the critique that Tex and Morneau too close to distinguish themselves is valid. If the Tigers win the Central, Cabrera moves up a tier because he's undoubtably the best player on his team.
Yesterday, Joe Posnanski wrote that Derek Jeter should be the Yankee competitor, though Pos supports Joe Mauer so strongly that he's giving daily updates on his website. It's hard not to choose Mauer, .380/.448/.648, but who was the last MVP to win the award despite missing a month on the DL?
While I said a while ago that I thought Jeter wasn't getting the respect his numbers and improved defense should earn him this season, I didn't think of him as a viable MVP candidate.
Jeter's string of 3 hit games was snapped last night (he only went 2-4). His line stands .331/.395/.471. For the record, that breaks down .319/.392/.496 at home, .340/.396/.448 on the road.
Take it away, Poz:
He's on pace for 218 hits, 109 runs, 21 homers. 27 stolen bases. He's having a great offensive season, quite similar to the season last year's MVP, Boston's Dustin Pedroia, had.
And -- this is weird -- those advanced statistics that have so universally mocked his defense now show him to be, well, darned good defensively. The Dewan Plus/Minus system -- a video system where they plot every ball hit in play -- had long shown him to consistently be the worst shortstop in baseball. Now, it has him as a plus-7 shortstop, a top-10 shortstop.
Jeter or Mauer. We had this debate in 2006, and Morneau inexplicably won the award.
Let's be honest. Mauer has never won an MVP despite breezing toward his third batting crown in four years. And this year he's slugging 150 points above his career average coming into the season. He's got 25 homers and 77 RBI in only 95 games. If you can get past the losing team, and the short season, Mauer's production is MVP worthy. But I can't get past the missed time.
For Jeter to win, things have to break down this way: the White Sox overtake the Tigers to win the division, destroying Cabrera's chances; the Rangers either lose the Wild Card or no one notices Michael Young (I think Pudge catching should just about wreck their dreams); Mauer slumps a little down the stretch, winning the batting title but sluggishly; Jeter stays hot as the Yanks run away with the division.
2 out of 3 in Boston would be a very good start.
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Mauer
He’s incredible, but his team is below .500. I think that is a bigger knock on him than being out for a month. If anything, being out may help him. He missed a month but will still hit 30 HRs and drive in 100 RBIs (on top of batting freakin’ .380!).
That said, his team is mediocre-to-weak. Jeter is the driving force of the Yankees offense, holding the line during the hot and cold streaks of their other hitters (Tex, ARod, Cano, Swisher…). Not to mention, he may drive in 85-90 runs while batting leadoff!
"We're only going to score 17 points?" ~ Tom Brady
by mwilli on Aug 20, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hate to say it....
but the one name I don’t see in there is Kevin Youkilis. I hate that knucklehead mainly cuz of the team he plays for, but he’s a great ballplayer and having a better year than any of the above mentioned 1B.
If its a 1B, the way it should be actually is Youkilis, Cabrera, Morneau, Tex.
Yet games like yesterday show why Tex is an MVP candidate, cuz he’s carried the best team in baseball’s offense for more than a few games.
Jeter is my choice if the MVP is from the Yankees. The way he’s played the past 2 months (along with Matsui…but he’s not a candidate…..he’s decomposing according to some….) has been the main reason they’ve maintained their lead.
Jscape, I don’t know how the missed time is misleading you. Mauer has his 25 HR and 77 RBI playing that many games.
The MVP is Mauers to lose. I don’t care he’s not on a good team, catcher’s don’t bat .380 and the way he’s going….hit 40 HR either.
He’s just having a monster season, its really not his fault his pitching staff blows and aside from Morneau and Kubel, the lineup sucks.
It should be between Mauer and Jetes. As a Yankee fan, I hope Jetes gets it cuz there’s been 2-3 years already, 2006 being a big one, that he should have been the MVP (kinda like Andy Pettite never winning a CY Young but deserving it more than once….where the hell IS Pat Hentgen now?)
Do what Jerry Hairston do
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 20, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Playing time
I think the MVP needs a blend of rate and counting stats. Mauer’s rate stats are going to be higher because he’s been hot in his limited playing time. I see him winning, though. .380 from a catcher, hell from any position.
Youk is only in the race if the Red Sox hold off the Rangers. But I think the team aspect is going to come into play again- the Red Sox were supposed to be neck-and-neck with the Yanks, if not be the best team in baseball. I don’t agree with it, but I live with it.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on Aug 20, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mauer has less AB's and all a that,
but what explains his 25 HR? He has more AB’s, maybe his BA and other rate stats take a hit (maybe…), but then you have to factor in he’d probably have 30 HR right now (that’s a maybe…but the way he’s hit this season…..), which is around what Tex and the leaders have in the AL.
Do what Jerry Hairston do
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 20, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Youklis??
Now granted the is a Yankee forum and I hate the Red Sox with a great passion, but in all honesty Youklis is nowhere near an MVP candidate. He got off to a great start in April in May, but has been simply mediocre since. If you want to argue the games played card as well, he’s only appeared in 99 games, Mauer has appeared in 95. Youklis has hit .276 with 11 HR’s and 34 RBI’s from June 1 on in 62 games.
Mauer is having the best statistical year, Cabrera is a very good player benefiting from playing in a weak division, Mornueau is having another outstanding season, but hasn’t got the press that Mauer has gotten, Tex has been great for the Yanks and has definitely benefited from A-rod protecting him (even though A-rod is having a sub-par season), and Jeter has (as he would put it) “been consistant.”
This will be a debate for as long as there is not a more definited definiition of the league MVP in most seasons. Occassionally a guy will have such an amazing season, while he teams wins their division that there will be little doubts, but most seasons will be like this one where you can argue for 3,4 or maybe even more players.
Tex and Jeter have lead this team, each in there own way and it’s been great seeing the Yanks back on top. Are either one the MVP of the entire AL, I don’t think so right now, but that is why they play 162 games. We are only 3/4 of the way through the season, still a ton of ball to be played. With that said, Youklis could make a comeback if he reverts back to the way he played in the first 2 months. I don’t want to see that and hope the Yanks can bury the Sox in the upcoming series.
Go Yanks and continue winning SERIES!! Too much emphasis is put on each game. If they take 2 of 3 or 3 of 4 from here on out, it will be a runaway going into October.
by The Munson on Aug 20, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Youkilis plays good D (as good as Tex or better...UZR says he's better, but its a bad stat anyway...)
He’s got the second highest OPS in the AL too.
I don’t think he’s the MVP, he’s grown absent as the Pissants plummeted, and his charging of the mound should play a role in say that aint an MVP.
The numbers say he’s second to Mauer in terms of numbers. I don’t like it, but its the truth.
If anythin, he will be one to not be MVP cuz of the fact he’s gonna play so few games.
Do what Jerry Hairston do
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 20, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
I like the “from June 1 on” argument. Did you know that from June 1 on, lowly David Ortiz has more home runs and the same OPS as Mark Teixeira? At first base there are several guys (Youkilis, Cabrera, Morneau) that are better by VORP, and Carlos Pena has as many HRs.
The key reason (In my mind) that the Yankees are far ahead of the Red Sox right now is that their older players (Matsui, Posada, Jeter, Damon, etc) are far outperforming the Sox older players (Lowell, Drew, Varetek, Ortiz…). It seems clear to me that Jeter is the team’s MVP. Indeed, Jeter’s value seems high enough to me to give him the overall MVP over Mauer (even though I think Mauer is most deserving).
by Buzzy on Aug 20, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Youk is not ............
having a better year than Tex. He’s comparable but not equal. Get in the game!
by McDaniel on Aug 20, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
get in the game? You sure you want to say that?
Youkilis is second only to Mauer in OPS.
There’s a ton more than he’s doing equal to Tex or better, but I aint gonna argue in that knucklehead’s favor any more than I already did.
Do what Jerry Hairston do
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 20, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dont you think...
…Youkillis charging Rick Porcello ruined all chances of him getting MVP?
The MVP doesn’t only have great statistical numbers, but should be a role model player.
Imagine if a fuming lumberjack won the Most Valuable Player, what message would that send?
by dahhnold on Aug 20, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's probably a big reason
that if Youkilis did play the whole season (minus those 5 games of course….) that he shouldn’t be in the discussion.
His numbers dictate that he could be a candidation, but the fact he did that (and the team did fine without him….) is gonna take some or many votes away.
I don’t think he’s the MVP; Jeter or Mauer are the top 2 to me. But when you consider Tex, you have to consider that Youkilis and Cabrera and Morneau are having similar if better seasons.
Do what Jerry Hairston do
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 20, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
***candidation is kinda like candidate....true story.
Do what Jerry Hairston do
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 20, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a Twin robbed DJ
of the MVP in ‘06, so i hope it’s reversed this time.
by Travis G on Aug 20, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's Mauer...
…no debate.
I’m happy knowing Jeter and Tex are on my team though. We know how valuable they are, so who cares if anybody else does.
by New York Sports Jerk on Aug 20, 2009 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you people and the 2006 mvp thing!
im a yankee fan but damn! morneau hit .321 had 34hrs and 134rbis in ’06! stopped saying dj was robbed it could have went either way. it was the right decision that morneau won and it would have been the right decision if jeter had won too.
by fob22 on Aug 20, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
who cares about BA/HR/RBI?
seriously. two of those three stats are hugely in favor of sluggers.
BA is not nearly as important as OBP and SLG. Morneau’s OBP was .375. DJ’s was .417! Morneau had a higher chance of making an out than DJ.
and if you wanna use BA, fine, DJ finished at .343. .22 pts higher than Morneau.
RBI are almost entirely dependent on who’s getting on in front of you. of course Morneau will have more as the #5 hitter than DJ as the #2. even so, i’ll take you up on that: DJ had 97 RBI from the 2 hole! he hit .381 with RISP, Morneau .323.
baserunning? Morneau went 3/6 on SB. DJ was 34/39.
who played a tougher position? DJ. SS is much harder than 1B.
DJ was 2nd in WAR. Morneau was 17th.
DJ was 2nd in WPA (basically synonymous with clutchiness), Morneau was 4th.
and finally, Morneau wasn’t even the MVP of his own team, let alone the league.
DJ (or perhaps Grady Sizemore) deserved that trophy. the voters have to get beyond the three basic Triple Crown stats.
by Travis G on Aug 20, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The real injustice in 2006 is to Mauer. Look at his line; there’s no reason to choose Morneau.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on Aug 20, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm taking the Jeter stance
Like Jerk, I’m just happy to have those guys on my team. I want to be watching my team in the playoffs way more than I want any individual award for anyone.
But I guess that goes without saying in this debate.
by Jaybat on Aug 20, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Twins and Mauer!
When Mauer came off the DL, the Twins were 11-11. Since Mauer’s return, they are 47-51. The Twins had a better record without him than they do with him….. forget about stats, I thought the MVP should actually make the team better!
by imike29 on Aug 20, 2009 7:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it ain't Mauer's fault the staff sucks (even as a catcher)
it also isn’t his fault they have 3 MLB players (good ones tho…).
Catchers don’t bat .380. If you think that, along with his league leading OPS, his 25 HR, has made his team worse, then lord help you.
Do what Jerry Hairston do
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 20, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Read my comment!
I said the TWINS record is worse with Mauer. How do you translate that into HE has made the Twins worse? You might be the one needing some of the Lord’s help!
As I said, the Twins have a better record without Mauer, so how exactly does that make him the MVP of the AL!
by imike29 on Aug 21, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
22 games vs. 98 games
is hardly a reason to base your judgement on. All in all the fact that they are .500 without him in 22 games vs .479 with him in 98 games is pretty irrelevant to say that they are better without him.
I translate someone saying that a guy doesn’t make his team better as meaning that they make their team worse.
Mauer doesn’t make your team worse, nor does it make your team the same.
I have little doubt that the Twins would be worse than the Royals without Mauer (as his WAR is 14.3).
Again, its not his fault his team has a crappy lineup (aside from Morneau and Kubel) and a pitching staff who’s best pitcher has a 4.27 ERA
Do what Jerry Hairston do
by FreeBradshaw on Aug 22, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Comments
Most of what I have seen on the internet is so one-sided, its great to get a discussion about a worthwhile assessment of the players we are talking about.
I have been really impressed with Jeter over the years (and of course over his career), he is going to the hall no question. Re: this year’s MVP, though, if you are a catcher hitting .380 and putting up power numbers, you are making a case that you are having one of the best seasons ever. Not unusual for catchers to miss a number of games through the season as well.
re: youklis, great hitter and fielder, horrible representative for his team. i know i am biased, but i would be embarassed at any yankee acting like youklis has at times and especially at charging the mound and throwing his helmet at a 20 year old mlb newbie (without bringing in that ridiculous stash to the equation).
but if it were my decision, and with the bias that i have tracked all the yankee games this year, i would give it to tex because of all the big hits that have won games and put the yanks in the position as front runner for the ws. The other season stats he has are certainly usable for support as well.
by Matty Beisbol on Aug 20, 2009 9:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Most VALUABLE Player
Many people tend to get caught up on the fact that the MVP award is for the best player. I tend to look at the MVP award to see how valuable is that person to their team. Yes, Mauer’s numbers are unbelieveable, but how valuable is Mauer to that team right now. The twins are a below 500 team. Derek Jeter on the other hand is so important to the Yankees. Without DJ this year i dont think the Yankees would have such a large lead in the division. I can see the argument for Cabrera, but i think Tex is having a better season than him. Youkilis should not be in the discussion, not just because he is on the sox, but because his stats are not as great.
by dan.altman89 on Aug 20, 2009 11:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
It’s not the best player necessarily with the best stats, but the most valuable player to a single team.
by nyydevoted on Aug 21, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we yankee fans are the smartest fans in the country, in what other forum would you get guys being unbiased and in some cases arguing against our guy for MVP, great to see we are the most intelligent
as for who i think will get it, my head says mauer, my heart says DJ
by CavsLebronFan on Aug 21, 2009 7:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As much as I love Jeter, Teixeira has been the MVP of the Yankees so far this year. He’s leading the team in HR, RBI, and OPS this year, but what I feel really makes him the MVP has been his sparkling defensive play. He has made a ton of run saving plays, and saved a bunch of possible errors from the other infielders by how well he fields balls thrown in the dirt or off-line.
by Wraithpk on Aug 21, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the mvp
for all is worth DJ. is having a great season we all know that. but if you take jeter out of this lineup the yankees would still be in first place maybe not 71/2 up but at least 31/2 that is still in top of the division, if you take teixeira out of the lineup the yanks would not be in first place he is such a difference being a swich hitter in front of AROD and remember AROD don’t have that tipe of hitter in back of him.
that’s why i say the AROD is the MVP of this team but he doesn’t have the numbers,DJ and TEIXEIRA are the M.P.P. of the team (most productive players) but in the end i think that MARCK TEIXEIRA is the MVP of this yankee team
by outofdr on Aug 24, 2009 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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