Whatever Joba did over the All-Star break has worked wonders; after you consider his early-season struggles and the media speculation about his role on the team, he's just made his third consecutive "best start of the season".  However, since this is the Yankees universe, there always has to be some sort of imminent catastrophe, even when the team is on a roll and has the best record in baseball.....


With recent Joba's recent success, it now appears unlikely that he can stay under his presumed innings limit of 160-170 while pitching every fifth day, and so we're left wondering whether the team will pull him from the rotation in the midst of a pennant race, or simply push the Joba rules aside for a run at the postseason and run the risk of injuring him. 

I say neither of these has to happen. 

An innings limit is a guide.  It's supposed to remind managers to keep an eye on their young pitchers and not use them carelessly, like last September when the Giants were 17 games below .500 and 12 games out of first place, yet Bruce Bochy let a 24-year old TIm Lincecum throw 138 pitches in an utterly meangingless game, just so he could get the shutout.  As a firm measure of pitcher usage, however, innings limits are inexact; we all know that eight innings spread out over two starts and 175 pitches require more work and put more stress on a pitcher's arm than eight innings in one start and 100 pitches. But this is the exact predicament the Yankees currently face - in Joba's four starts leading up the break, he threw 19 2/3 innings and  375 pitches, and in three starts since, 21 2/3 innings and 306 pitches. Which group of games do you think was more stressful on his arm?

Joba averaged 17.1 pitches per inning last season between starting and relieving, a high number, but not unusual for young power pitchers.  We've assumed that he's limited to 160-170 innings this season, but if he averages fewer than 17.1 pitches per inning, as he has since the All-Star break, shouldn't he be able to pitch more innings?   I think it would probably be more accurate to think of the Joba Rules as a pitch limit of 2,700 to 2,900 for the season rather than an innings limit. 

If you look at it this way, Joba's thrown 1,864 pitches this season, meaning he's got another 1,000 to 1,100 left.  If he pitched every fifth game for the remainder of the season, he'd make 12 more starts, and then (hopefully) another three in the postseason as the Yankees #4 starter.  Realistically, though, Girardi will probably rest him once in late September if a playoff birth is wrapped up, and will probably look to find him another day off at some point between now and then.  That means 13 more starts and 1,100 pitches.  That's manageable.  As it becomes more and more likely that the Yankees will make the postseason, he can begin to pull Joba at, say, 90 pitches if the game is out of hand, or treat one or two of his late-September starts as a 75-80 pitch tune-up for the playoffs.

There will be no need to start Sergio Mitre in Game 4 of the ALDS and no increased risk to Joba's health and durability.  Joba can stay in the rotation for the rest of the season and the postseason.