Wagering Against Wang

by jscape2000 on Jul 27, 2009 4:00 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

[I]t is widely accepted that the success rate for pitchers returning from rotator cuff surgery is lower than the return rate for Tommy John surgery. Both happen all the time in the sport. And yet the latter has become fairly routine over the years to the point where pitchers undergoing Tommy John surgery often return to their previous level of performance within a year or so.

Such isn't the case with rotator cuff tears. It isn't that medical science has stalled on the subject, it is simply a case of more complex mechanics with the shoulder.

"Rotator cuff surgery is trying to repair a frayed tendon, comparable to sewing a small hole together or sewing a large hole together with shades of gray in between," said Dr. David Lintner, an orthopedic sports medicine specialist as well as head team physician for the Houston Astros. "The main task with Tommy John surgery [is] you are reconnecting a cable or tendon. With the rotator cuff, you're talking about the shoulder and repairing a muscle and a tendon. But it's more than just repairing it, you have to be able to repair the muscle and yet have it be extremely flexible."

Let's assume the worst about CMW's meeting with Dr. Andrews tomorrow, because that's the GM's job, isn't it? Assume that Chien Ming Wang never returns to be an effective major league pitcher. Assume that the crucial pivot at the #3 spot in the rotation unfilled for the future of the Yankees.

The options:

1) Watch Joba Chamberlain develop and re-sign Andy Pettitte. This is the simplest option for the Yanks, but the one that offers the most opening for second guessing. The 2010 return of Phil Hughes to the rotation could highlight the appeal of this strategy for those not in the Hughes-to-the-pen camp.

2) Trade for a back-end starter. I'm intrigued by veteran Jarrod Washburn; he's been average over his career (1.30 WHIP), though he's having a career year for the Mariners (.251BABIP vs .280 career). He's just an '09 rental though, so I wouldn't give up anything significant for him. Furthermore, if the rumors that the M's wanted GGBG and Melky are true, it's a sign that they are keeping the Yanks in the discussions just for the specter of having the Yankees in the discussion.

3) Halladay. Roy Halladay. Joba and Jesus or Phrachise and Ajax. Put it all on the table to make AJ Burnett the #3 behind Halladay and CC Sabathia.

4) Slog through the 2009 season, then turn to the free agent market for help. Washburn, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, John Lackey, Erik Bedard, even Jose Contreras mark a deep if mediocre batch of starters who will be available for only cash.

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I like Bedard

I like Cliff Lee more, ERA just over 3 with a losing record? Obviously the team sux and isn’t gettin’ him any runs

by ReggieARodJeter on Jul 27, 2009 4:34 PM EDT reply actions

I think a combo

of option 1 and 2 is best.

For the next couple weeks, hopefully everything goes at least similar to the past few post AS break ( Id love to keep winning 9/10, but simply winning each series is a bit more reasonable Id think, or splitting 4 game series isn’t reason to expect doom either.

I like Washburn, but he may cost a bit too much. A guy like Ian Snell may be more in the Sergio Mitre mold, tho I think he’s a bit better than that and getting away from the Pirates may allow the Yanks to catch lightening in a bottle for a little while. This is a guy who threw 200 innings and had 170+ K’s too a couple years ago. It could be it was an outlier, it also could be he doesn’t want to pitch for the worst organization in baseball. I don’t know.

Halladay, or Cliff Lee for that matter, would be nice. But unless the Yanks are set to pay them big bucks, which they of course could, Id rather not go all in on them cuz it probably will mean more big bucks spent on an OF and/or C in the future. I don’t want to do that.

If your thinking about next season, Phranchise is in the rotation, no second thoughts about that. Also, maybe Joba’s training wheels are off and he can go however long he can go. Hughes may have his own rules, but I guess we’ll worry about that post AS-Break 2010!
Finding a 5th starter for next season should be no problem, whether its signing Andy for another go or finding someone off the scrap heap and hoping it works (Id say its worked out with Brad Penny for the Pissants).

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 27, 2009 4:35 PM EDT reply actions

I think Andy is conditional on how the team finishes this year.

He’s on his incentive laden one-year deal now,not sure after this year if he has another strong year in him.

by ReggieARodJeter on Jul 27, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

We need two starters

One for wang’s place cause i dont think he is coming back and mitre has not performed that well. Another one for when joba exceeds 150 innings and i dont want to put hughes out of his dominant setup man position. I think if we give up two middle of the line prospects we could get bronson arroyo from the reds. I also would like to get Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners but if thats too pricey we hace other options like Ian snell or doug davis or jon garland.

by jv52yankees on Jul 27, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions

We are thin

in the rotation but I honestly don’t think we need to even consider option #3. It simply isn’t warranted to trade those guys. We have an ace in CC, a reliable #2 in AJ and Pettite, who, as the 3rd arm, is doing the job. In the short-term we just need to aim low and get what comes to us. And that’s if we absolutely refuse to start Ace or Phil (although I guess that depends on how good Marte is).

We have the answers for 2010 in-house already, whether or not Pettitte is re-signed. Their names are Phil and/or Joba. Let those guys pan out. I’ve been shaky about Joba as a starter but he has told me where to shove the last two outings. And, quite frankly, the alternative can’t be to not have him at all. He is the real deal in SOME capacity, whether it be starting or relieving. Also, option 4 is always there.

And honestly, in the playoffs you really only need 3 solid pitchers to do the job. Hell, the D-Backs did it with 2. What matters is making it into the post-season, and we can do that with in-house or low cost solutions.

by Hood on Jul 27, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions

I disagree with the premise

It is not the GM’s job to assume the worst.

He should work the trade lines to see what he can do and WAIT for the info from Dr. Andrews.

If Joba is going to hit his limit I think I’d reverse him and Hughes.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Jul 27, 2009 5:35 PM EDT reply actions

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/yankees-and-reds-talking-arroyo-trade.html

by Yankz09 on Jul 27, 2009 6:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

GM job

It is the job of somebody to play out the scenarios.

by bcw420 on Jul 27, 2009 6:22 PM EDT reply actions

Harden or Bedard intrigue me

by Brian5517209 on Jul 27, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions

Bedard

He has nasty stuff but I wouldn’t sign him after the season. AJ is already an injury risk, we do not need two of them in the same rotation.

by yankeechaser on Jul 27, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions

nor do we need Harden

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 27, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

HARDEN OWNED THE SOX

by cashman bashman on Jul 27, 2009 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

so did

Aj Burnett before this year. hows that turning out?

Plus, a roation of Harden / Burnett / Chabmerlain / Hughes will either win 110 games or lose 100 , with no middle ground.

by RollingWave on Jul 28, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions

how is that?

If those 4 actually played (tho I don’t know why the Large C wasn’t mentioned?-how could you look over him?)

Harden Id stay away from at all cost tho. Too injury prone and unlike AJ he’s never even had one season of injury free ball.

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 28, 2009 5:40 AM EDT up reply actions

9 years since a ring...

Look — there is no wrong answer — just a decision. If you want to win N-O-W and for the next 2 years… you get Halliday.

But if you want to be a “good” team for the next 5-7 years (always in the playoffs, probably NO championships and maybe NEVER get by the BoSox) then keep your “now-and-future-prospects” and don’t go after one of the undisputed best pitchers in baseball.

The 2009 Championship decision is to get Doc.

The 81 Home Games “Good product on the field” 95 wins = at least one playoff round post-season ticket sale business decision projected over the next half decade… is to keep Hughes and Joba, et al…

We’ll know what kind of “Empire” we’re dealing with by August 1.

by rosebud on Jul 28, 2009 3:31 AM EDT reply actions

nah.

Halladay guarantees exactly nothing.

Makes pundits feel good cuz the Yanks got another name, that’s a bout it.

Oh they could win with Halladay, but they could also lose.

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 28, 2009 5:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Guarantees "nothing"?

Sabathia, AJ and Halliday in a 3/5 or 4/7 playoff rotation guarantees exactly nothing…?

Well I got good news for ya Free. Don’t worry a bit because we’re not gonna pull the trigger on this. The bad news is “nothing” is exactly what we’re gonna get.

by rosebud on Jul 28, 2009 6:23 AM EDT up reply actions

yup

guarantees nothing.

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 28, 2009 6:35 AM EDT up reply actions

And "nothing" guarantees...

another few years (lets call them the remainder of “The Jeter Years”) of Z-E-R-O championships… but a well-oiled regular season money machine that plays well on Broadway and tours pretty darn good too.

Just like its been this entire decade Free. Good business. Good entertainment. And an enjoyable six months worth of competitive baseball — with the additional benefit of knowing you can make whatever plans you want after the first week of October — cuz we sure ain’t gonna be playing.

by rosebud on Jul 28, 2009 6:57 AM EDT up reply actions

OK

so you want to go any buy a championship by getting Halladay, yet you bash the Yankees for trying to buy championships?

Just making sure the point you are trying to prove.

Why does Halladay guarantee postseason success? I don’t know what stats you have been looking at, but he’s never pitched in the playoffs before. He’s also pitched in Canada his whole career, not exactly the limelight. Whats to stop a humble star like him from collapsing in NY?

Yanks built champs from within. That’s what’s going on with keeping all these guys. Yes they have all the guys they spent big bucks on this winter, but giving up the kids ensures they will do that in the future.

And my plans for October are to have a few playoff parties, what about you?

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 28, 2009 7:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Re-sign Andy??

No way. I’d say No.2. I’m not fooled by a start or 2 of Andy’s to suggest re-signing him. He’s on his last legs now & i’d like to see him end 2009 on a high note and then i’d consider it but he doesn’t have much left. Getting an Arroyo(my pick over Bedard) for cheap seems like the best thing. Halladay is great and he just kills us but he costs the world & I’ve seen enough “great before they got to NY” guys to be a little wary to give up so much. Sames goes for Lee.Also, I’m on board for the Joba/Phil switch but are we gonna send Phil down to be “stretched out” during a potentially tight September race?? I for one wouldn’t mind a CC,AJ,Bronson rotation come 1st round action with Andy & Phil on the back end. Cashman’s been good recently let’s see what happens

by PinstripesSince'78 on Jul 28, 2009 3:57 AM EDT reply actions

What is so bad about Sergio Mitre

giving up 3-4 runs in 5-6 innings as a back-end starter? That’s about what we can expect from the likes of Ian Snell or Bronson Arroyo.

Either we trade for a low end starter, and they probably don’t do much better, or we have to give up a ton of prized talent.

As long as Mitre continues to simply keep the Yankees in the game, I’m fine with him being our #5 man.

by Lord Duggan on Jul 28, 2009 4:11 AM EDT reply actions

Dont forget the waiver list

I hope that Cashman is attentive since the price usually comes down prior to the deadline. Having said that I would not mortgage the future to get Holliday but would consider Arroyo for mid level prospects. We still need to build up our system (keep signing those international players) as the Red Sox system is loaded giving them greater flexibility at trade deadlines. Also notice how they also protect their top prospects.

One thing worth remembering is that there will be many players (pitchers among them) put on waivers in August for economic reasons. If we need a fifth start we might find an upgrade at that time but Cash should avoid overpaying.

by Jtmc on Jul 28, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions