Another Look At A Potential Halladay Trade....Sorry

by Lord Duggan on Jul 20, 2009 6:24 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

First of all, I'd like to apologize for reengaging this somewhat tired debate. If you've already had your fill of Halladay speculation, then feel free to skip this post and enjoy the following slice of happiness. Enjoy

Welcome back. And now, to get down to Halladay.

For the sake of argument, let's say that before the trade deadline, the following deal goes down:

I AM NOT ADVOCATING THIS TRADE, I KNOW IT'S NOT GOOD FOR THE YANKS

Yankees get: Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells

Jays get: Joba Chamberlain, Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, Dellin Betances, Melky Cabrera.

Now there has been a lot of speculation that the Jays would be unwilling to trade Halladay to a division rival. This may be true, but I think that the Yankees should be more unwilling. Imagine the team that the Jays could field in 3-5 years after receiving all of that young talent and cutting a sizable amount of payroll.

The Jays would have young pitchers in Joba, Romero, Cecil, Rzepczynski, Betances, Richmond, Litsch, Marcum, and McGowan. In addition, they would keep any prospects they had been developing, and free up money to pursue free agents.

As far as hitting is concerned, they would keep Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, and Alex Rios, while gaining Jackson, Montero, and Melky. Frankly, I'd be very disappointed to watch the Yankees spend the time to scout, draft, and develop these prospects, only to allow them all to play for a division rival.

The AL East is tough enough already. With the way that the Rays have improved, and the Sox are showing no signs of slowing down, can we really afford to make the future this bright for the Jays?

If even some of these prospects pan out, my crystal ball says no.

Poll

What do you think?

I want Halladay, let's win this year

55 votes

I want to keep the prospects

118 votes

Dr. Evil? Really?

10 votes

183 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 13 comments

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Comments

Wow.

If that trade actually happened, I’d be sick to my stomach.

In short, I don’t think the Yanks need Halladay. What they need is for their guys to be consistent. They can do it.

Seriously….people complain that the Yanks don’t have a 3rd SP. Really? Teams would kill to run CC, AJ, and Joba back to back to back! PLUS they have Andy! Those 4 alone should be enough to get to the playoffs, where they will only need the three.

I’m just always glad fans dont get to decide the fate of trades! They woulda traded Tex when he went into a funk!

Let’s face it…if the Yanks would have went 4-4 vs the Sox, they would be in 1st and no one would be saying anything. Things will even out as the season moves on and once the big games start, we’ll see what this team is made of.

by Ragnar808 on Jul 20, 2009 8:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that's a pretty big overpay

for Halladay. we could probably get him for the first two and no more. but that still might be too much.

by Travis G on Jul 20, 2009 10:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Toronto is saying they'd have to be "blown away"

so I think they aren’t going to accept much less than that. But say the trade is just Joba and Montero, I’m still saying no way.

by Lord Duggan on Jul 20, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed ... that's overpaying for Halladay.

I’d never pull the trigger on a trade for Halladay, and pigs and cows would have to fly before I would take on Vernon’s salary. They’d already have to pay an additional $7 million for Halladay, in addition to the contract extension he’d want. You want to take on another $100 million for Vernon Wells? No can do.

by .ryan on Jul 20, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that is a

gigantic understatement

by RollingWave on Jul 21, 2009 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What if you could avoid putting Hughes or Joba in the deal

I think the price is steep but say Jackson..Montero…& Melky for Halladay or another piece in exchange for taking the hideous contract that is Vernon Wells.. If you could keep the pitching I would trade Montero ..Jackson..Melky and Igawa ( i would eat his money too just to be rid of him lol )

I dont think it gets it done and I like the fact that we have some prospects but imagine

CC..Doc..AJ..Pettitte Joba and Hughes in the wing/8th inning role…

Heck If Wang was healthy I would include him (if he had any value)

Wang..Melky..Jesus..Jackson ?? ( Have to admit I love Jesus and would love to see him in the Bronx) I can just imagine the t shirt for Bald Vinny … Section 203 loves Jesus lolllll…

by MUSKRAT on Jul 21, 2009 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Uggggh

Look, Vernon Wells = 2 Roy Halladay. … in negative worth that is, and that is a understatement. based on Beyondtheboxscore.com ‘s analysis, it’s more ike 4 Roy Halladay.

using BTB’s calculating logic. what your purposing is roughly overpaying by about umm…

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/17/952509/whats-the-value-of-a-vernon-wells

some general assumptions

1. Halladay pitch about the same as he did in the first half for hte next 1.5 year.
2. Vernon Wells play around the same level as he has in the last 3 year for the next 5.
3. Joba / Melky plays around the same as they have for their remaining time until FA. Melky makes 10M combined in the next 3 year. Joba makes 15M combined for the next 5. (both fairly generous estimates if they keep playing at their level, assuming both only average 2.0 WAR a year until FO. which is what they’re doing this year so far.)
4. Montero = top 10 hitting prospect, A-Jasx = top 50 hitting prospect. Betances = grade C pitcher under 22.

Halladay: 23M
Wells: -92.1 M

Jesus Monter: 36.5M
A-Jax : 23.4 M
Betances : 2.1M
Joba : 46.2M
Melky: 23.0M

So. using this calculation

Yankees over pay by 203.3 Million. LOL!!!!!!

you certainly " blew them away" alright, just as you blew away the Yankee’s chances to make the playoff for the next 5 season as well.

by RollingWave on Jul 21, 2009 4:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

Don’t even use the “it’s a upgrade this year” argument. because it doesn’t work either.

right now. Joba and Melky are both looking like they will finish with 2 WAR. while Halladay will probably finish with 7 ish and Wells at an amazing -2. if we assume that Wells will take playing time away from Brett Gardner too that’s even worse. since Gardner’s on pace for 4 win.

So if we install Halladay and Wells over Joba and Melky, what happens?

Halladay (roughly 3 win till the end of the year. )
Wells : minus one win.

Melky : one win
Joba : one win
Gardner : 2 win.

So, your basically giving up 4 wins for 2 if you make that trade. woopy, so on top of a gigantic overpay. your actually making us WORSE , THIS YEAR.

by RollingWave on Jul 21, 2009 5:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dude

I know…..that was my point. I know it’s not a good trade. I’m saying we SHOULDN’T sell the farm for the guy.

by Lord Duggan on Jul 21, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What would those numbers

be for Rois? I am curious, even though I don’t put a whole lot of stock in what I consider to be over-calculation. Don’t jump on me, I do think it has it’s place.

It is not a given that Wells goes with Halladay. Maybe Rios would fit better . Or maybe Halladay goes alone. Toronto is blowing smoke, but they definitely want to move him this season, imo.

"Character consists of what you do on the third and fourth tries."

James A. Michener

by Lumpee on Jul 23, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bottom Line: The Yankees don’t need another starting pitcher unless Wang never recovers, and even then I don’t think they would need someone for the rest of this year, they would just need to get someone in the off-season.

by Wraithpk on Jul 21, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs