One more Joba article - comparing him to Pettitte

by Travis G on Jul 17, 2009 11:00 AM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

I'm going back to the previous Joba article I wrote, in which I compared him to Andy Pettitte over the last two years. I was curious about how Joba's shorter starts compared to Pettitte's higher ERA.

Joba's ERA as a starter is 3.62; Pettitte's, over the same period, is 4.65. Joba has averaged 5.1 innings per start; Pettitte a hair over six. Joba has thrown 154.1 innings as a starter; Pettitte has tossed 311.2 in the same period.

Using RAR (Runs Above Replacement), which combines innings with quality (ERA) to determine how many runs a pitcher has saved (beyond that of a replacement-level pitcher), I looked at the pitchers in question.

Despite Andy's two-to-one advantage in innings pitched (311.2 vs. 154.1), he's still only saved one more run than Joba: 35.7 vs. 34.7. Then when you divide by number of starts (to find out who's better on a per-game basis), Joba comes out on top by almost double - he's worth 1.2 RAR per-start compared to Pettitte's .7 RAR per-start.

I also looked at RAR using tRA (Total Run Average), which the experts say is a more accurate way of measuring a pitcher (because it counts unearned runs along with earned runs). Joba has allowed more unearned runs than Pettitte, and does not come as close to matching his total RAR (30.1 vs. 45.5), but is still better on a per-game basis: 1.04 RAR/start vs. Pettitte's .89 RAR/start.

To conclude: as bad as Joba has been recently, Pettitte has been worse. And it's not fair to condemn Joba to the bullpen when there's another pitcher in the same rotation more deserving of that demotion. The simple fact is that, over the last 1.5 years, Joba has been a better starter than Andy Pettitte. Joba is not the one deserving of any demotion.

Hopefully Joba pitches great on Sunday and we don't have to discuss this for a while (and by 'a while,' I mean a week).

Thank god baseball's back tonight.

(Thanks to BTB's Sky Kalkman for the RAR formula: repERA-pitcherERA, * IP, / 9 = RAR (where repERA = lgERA * 1.28))

It's a great formula to play around with. For example, to match CC Sabathia's season so far (128.1 ip, 3.86 ERA), a reliever, pitching 40 innings (the Yankee reliever average), would need a .25 ERA. That's a good example of how much more valuable starting is than relieving.

If anyone's interested, the Excel document is here.

[Disclaimer: my intention is not to denigrate Andy Pettitte, but to defend Joba Chamberlain. For the record, I don't think either pitcher should be in the bullpen at this point.]

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I can't believe you turned...

…your misguided argument into an entire story.

I hope Joba pitches great on Sunday too … but it’s not going to stop anything because one start proves nothing, just like you’d say one bad start wouldn’t prove anything either.

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 17, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions

if you still don't understand it

i don’t know what to tell you. perhaps you should RTFA and tell me what you think.

by Travis G on Jul 17, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I understand perfectly...

…you think sending someone like Joba to the bullpen is a demotion. It’s a fundamental lack of understanding on your part regarding the argument for having Joba in the bullpen.

I can’t explain it any more clearly. jscape2000 understands it perfectly.

I’m done trying to explain it to someone who clearly has no interest in understanding where my opinion comes from. You’ve misrepresented it so many times it’s pointless to continue.

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 17, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

i understand perfectly

you take any chance to criticize Joba The Starter because you think he’ll help the team more in the pen.

but i’ll try to explain my point for the Nth time: i want to know why you and others kill one of our young starters when you seem to give another, more struggling pitcher a pass? and if you’re so intent on putting Joba in the pen (where he would pitch far fewer innings), why not another starter who’s done/doing worse than Joba?

i have yet to hear an adequate answer to these questions. perhaps you could provide one.

by Travis G on Jul 17, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure thing...

1) Andy Pettitte has been a starter for 15 years. He’s earned the right to a few bad starts.
2) Andy Pettitte has no history whatsoever of being a dominating relief pitcher.

Pettitte has pitched badly, that doesn’t mean he can help the Yankees in the bullpen. That’s my rationale. Get it?

To reiterate (for the thousandth time):

I feel that Joba Chamberlain’s best role as a major league pitcher is in the bullpen. I am not for “demoting” him because I was never for “promoting” him in the first place. My opinion is not based on the last month, or the performances of Andy Pettitte, CMW, Greg Maddux, Sandy Koufax, Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown, or any other pitcher.

However, I consider the last month as “evidence” in the case of “Bullpen v. Starter.” The mere fact that I’m referencing the last month does not indicate that I’m using that as the sole reason for my argument.

I have explained it numerous times, and if you don’t find it adequate, I’m not going to lose a minute of sleep over it.

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 17, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks for answering

and now i’ll respond to those points for the 1001st time:

1) i’m not even saying Pettitte should go into the pen (bc we have no one to replace him right now), merely asking how could a WORSE starter not be under the same scrutiny. sure Pettitte has been good for a long time, but NOT the last 1.5 years (so it’s not a small sample size either). AP is 37 and safely in his decline phase. there’s almost no reason to think he’ll improve. he is what he is that this point. Joba is only 23, and his (historically speaking) prime is still ahead of him.

2) yes, AP has never been a reliever, but it’s a rather easy transition to make. that’s why relieving is easier than starting. it’s why Mo couldn’t be a starter: it’s just easier. john smoltz did it, dave righetti did it. off the top of my head, i cant think of one starter who was ever worse as a reliever.

now to your misguided argument: i never claimed Joba would ever turn out to be Maddux, Koufax, etc. i only wrote that bad seasons at early ages dont doom a pitcher. i was explicit in my previous Joba article about that. take a gander. i dont know how you missed it.

and if you didn’t think Joba at the very least deserved a shot at starting… wow. a guy with that potential who was ALWAYS a starter before August of ‘07 – and you don’t even think he deserves a chance at being a dominant starter?!

i was hoping the explanation of RAR would show the value of starting vs. relieving. did you read that part?

by Travis G on Jul 17, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Kerry Wood

OPS+ 101 as starter
92 as reliever.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jul 17, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

thank you

that’s OPS+ Against him.

by Travis G on Jul 17, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

forgot to ask

one more thing: if Joba goes to the pen, it leaves us with 3 starters. who replaces him? it looks like we’re going to go to Mitre for a start. do you really wanna go 2 deep into AAA?

by Travis G on Jul 17, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a question that wouldn't need asking...

…if they’d simply stuck with Joba in the pen and built their rotation differently to start the year.

They are obviously stuck with Joba in the rotation this year, until he reaches his innings limit and they have nobody to start Game 4 of a playoff series.

Well run, this Yankees team.

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 17, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Very well run considering their record

which is indeniable. I’d bet they’re "stuck’ with Joba in the rotation for the forseeable future, like forever or until he proves that he can’t do it whichever comes first. Thank Mo the B-jobbers ain’t running the team.

by Peter Lacock on Jul 17, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Holes in your logic

“Demotion”
There’s no such thing as a demotion at the major league level. Every AB is valuable, every inning pitched is important. The question for Joba and Andy is about utilizing their skill sets: what’s best for the Yankees?

Value per game
The Yankees are playing 162 games this season, roughly 1458 innings pitched.
The Yankees have a 25 man roster, of who 12 or 13 are pitchers. Roughly 20 pitchers a season are responsible for those 1458 innings. If Joba is on the roster for 162 games, but pitches .2 innings fewer than Pettitte, that’s roughly 23.1 innings another of those12 pitchers are going to be responsible.
Again, the question is what’s best for the Yankees. If they think they have the personnel to support a lower inning-higher quality player like Joba, then he is more valuable. If they feel that protecting (hiding) the bullpen is most important, then Pettitte is more valuable.

Previous performance
Part of the Joba to the Pen argument is based on past dominance.
Pettitte’s place in the rotation is secure because of his history.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jul 17, 2009 11:21 AM EDT reply actions

“The question for Joba and Andy is about utilizing their skill sets: what’s best for the Yankees?”

and RAR answers that.

“Part of the Joba to the Pen argument is based on past dominance.
Pettitte’s place in the rotation is secure because of his history.”

Joba was only placed in the pen bc of an innings limit, and he was dominant in the pen for 2 reasons: 1. he’s a good pitcher, 2. relieving is easier than starting. he was a starter his entire college and MiL career.
as for Pettitte, his recent (but not too recent) history (e.g. last 2 seasons) shows he is not as effective as Joba. and there is such a thing as demotion. it happened to Phil Hughes, and it might happen to Joba again. going from starting to relieving is a demotion. just as relieving to starting is a kind of promotion (e.g. Aceves).

by Travis G on Jul 17, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Thank you.

Your ability to read and understand an opinion you may not agree with is admirable.

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 17, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

well said!!!

Both performance is based on previous history:

Andy was a great starter in prev performance
AND
Joba was a dominant in the pen

by Joe G. Blows on Jul 17, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I can't do this anymore...

Let’s just hold our breath and hope they both get it right. Cause if they don’t….All the posts in mid-November are gonna be titled WHY THE YANKEES MISSED OUT ON DOC HALLADAY—LOL

by ReggieARodJeter on Jul 17, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions

It's not so complicated.

Joba and Pettitte have been similar by FIP (4.78 vs 4.88) and Pettitte has been worse by tRA (5.32 to 5.75 by statcorners). Pettitte has averaged 6 innings a start. Joba 5.5. It’s kind of a wash. Niether has been very good in similar ways.

by Buzzy on Jul 17, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions

The only stats that should matter are games won and games lost

when pettite starts we are 12-6
when joba starts we are 11-6

when sabathia starts, we are 9-10.

wins are what we want, i could care less about a pitchers RAR and all this other nonsense, what we should all want is just wins, no matter how they come.

by dan.altman89 on Jul 17, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

So… CC should be the 8th inning guy!

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jul 17, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

so Wakefield

is better than Felix? not sure about that one.

and there’s no need to criticize stats just bc you dont understand them. fyi, RAR translates to WAR (Wins Above Replacement, where 10 RAR equals roughly 1 win), so there you go.

by Travis G on Jul 17, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

LOL

CC should be the 7th and 8th inning guy!! Everyday!

by Joe G. Blows on Jul 17, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

I'd like to avoid seeing both Pettite and Joba

pitch during the Yank’s series in Oakland 8/17-19. I’m only kidding and just trying to tie this comment into the discussion. I’d be happy to see either but would most like to see Sabathia. Anybody got a few extra minutes to project the Yankee starters for the series? I’ve made my educated guesses but with the off day and the ? that is our fifth starter I’m confused.
Thanks.

by costa on Jul 17, 2009 5:36 PM EDT reply actions

JOBA is a better bullpen pitcher proved time and time again. But then again Hughes is proving to be dominant in the pen too. Hughes sucked in all his starts and JOBA is about half and half with his. With CHING MING WANG being inconsistent YANKEES can’t afford to struggle with the idea of two bad starting pitchers. They have to give JOBA a chance to come thru, because they know he has the ability to do so.

by Gangsta Yanksta on Jul 18, 2009 2:39 AM EDT reply actions

Good stuff.

I’ll add that tRA isn’t better than ERA because it also includes unearned runs, it’s better because it separates a pitcher’s contribution to run scoring from his park and defense. No, not perfect, but pretty good.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 18, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions

Here's the thing

You’re comparing apples and oranges.

This is a common flaw when discussing two players. Has Andy Pettitte been bad over the last two seasons? Sure. But he’s 36 and 37 years old. He’s at the tail end of his career. His time as an ace has come and gone. It’s not about something Pettitte’s “earned.” It’s about understanding that, as a 37 year old, he simply lacks the ability to be that kind of pitcher any more. Yeah, Mike Mussina was a revelation at 39 last year, but that’s the exception, not the rule. The Yankees weren’t even 100% positive he’d be back this season. Had Mussina returned, I’m not positive the Yankees would have re-signed Pettitte.

Joba Chamberlain is 23, soon to be 24. He’s been touted as the “future ace” of the staff. So what does comparing him to a soon-to-be retired, past his prime pitcher like Andy Pettitte prove? If Tex were hitting .270 with 6 HRs and 37 RBI right now would it be ok because, hey, it’s not “much worse than Hideki Matsui”? If Rivera had 6 blown saves and an ERA north of 4.00 would it be ok because other guys in the bullpen have struggled more? Being better than someone else doesn’t absolve you of criticism. When Pettitte blew a 4-0 lead in Anaheim, did that somehow make Chamberlain’s start less disappointing?

It’s about potential, and reaching that potential. It’s about ability and living up to that ability. Chamberlain is frustrating as a starter because he’s been unable to reach his potential this season. No-one’s expecting him to be going 8 innings, allowing one run and striking out 10 guys each start. The Yankees signed Sabathia and Burnett to be the 1-2 guys in the rotation.

But is it too much to ask him to go seven innings more than once a month? Is it too much to want to see flashes of this dominance more than once a month? 12 strikeouts in Boston is nice, but he’d already put the Yankees in a 4-0 hole at that point. 8 innings and two runs against Cleveland is great, but two starts later, he walks 5 guys in four innings and throws only 52 strikes in 100 pitches.

Is some of this a product of the bullpen thing? Yeah, probably. Am I advocating a return to the pen? No. But Chamberlain has not been good this season and Andy Pettitte’s struggles won’t change that. At some point, he needs to go out there and start pitching consistently. He needs to work deep into games. He needs to not implode following an error. He simply needs to pitch better, because that’s what’s expected of him

by Dirtybirdambrose on Jul 18, 2009 5:36 PM EDT reply actions

“So what does comparing him to a soon-to-be retired, past his prime pitcher like Andy Pettitte prove?”

this seems to be your main point, so i’ll address it (though I have already several times in this and previous posts): i’m not trying to ‘prove’ anything, but merely to defend Joba by asking why he takes so much unfair criticism and scrutiny when nary a word is heard re: Pettitte. expectations for Joba may be higher, but he’s still just 23, and a bad month hardly seals his fate as a reliever. and i dont understand how some are so ardent about moving Joba to the pen when he’s been a better starter than Pettitte.

by Travis G on Jul 19, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Pettitte

The reason Pettitte doesn’t get criticized is that most fans understand that he simply doesn’t have the ability to be a great pitcher any more. He’s 37, and at that age, you lose MPH on your fastball, your breaking stuff isn’t as sharp, etc.

Chamberlain is turning 24 in a few months. His stuff is electric and he should be able to put it together on the mound and pitch better than he is.

I don’t care if Chamberlain is in the pen or starts. He just needs to pitch BETTER, wherever he is. He has not pitched well, and I don’t waste time comparing him to other pitchers. If we’re doing that, no-one should be complaining about Andy Pettitte because he’s been better than Wang has. You’re responsible for yourself and as I said, being better than someone doesn’t mean you’re not disappointing. No matter how hard he tried, A-Rod would have a “better” season than Cody Ransom. But the standards for the two players are different. Same with Chamberlain and Pettitte

Joba Chamberlain has been touted as a number #1 ace pitcher, and frankly, he needs to start living up to that. Not everyday, but once in awhile.

by Dirtybirdambrose on Jul 19, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Start vs. Tigers

This is an example of the kind of performance you’d like to see from Chamberlain more often. He worked deeper into the game, didn’t get himself into jams. Good stuff

by Dirtybirdambrose on Jul 19, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions