Why Joba Has Pitched Poorly
I've been nursing one of my crazy ideas for the last week.
You know how it goes: I thinks of something, dismiss it, and then it comes back and chews on my brain stem until I pay more attention.
And as crazy ideas go, I think this one makes more sense than my usual:
Joba Chamberlain is hurt. Again.
I don't know which part of him is hurt. I don't know how badly he's hurt- will the extended break of the last week be enough? Will he need a DL stint? Will he need surgery?
Consider the splits:
Before: 5.2IP/ start, 40.2IP, 40H, 21BB, 40K, .270/.376/.419
After: 5.1IP/start, 47.2IP, 55H, 21BB, 37K, .286/.366/.464
What happened in between? Joba took a line drive off his right knee (his drive leg).
Counter-arguments I agree with: Small Sample Size, BABIP, Bad Luck.
Counter-arguments that don't hold water:
1) He pitched an 8 inning gem two starts later. At this point, that start is the outlier.
2) He can't be dumb enough to pitch through pain. I'd bet it doesn't hurt him- maybe he's compensating in some way that could lead to future trouble in another part of his body (by the way, if you didn't read that article about Jeff Francis you're missing out).
3) The numbers are too similar to indicate a difference. I see a drop in Ks, a rise in Hs, and as this article from River Ave Blues illustrates, his fastball was coming in at 93 with flashes of 97 before the game against the Tribe. He's not been there consistently since then. Something has changed.
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It's possible, but if it's true
then someone has a lot of explaining to do. Either a) Joba is hiding the injury, which is selfish and stupid or b) the Yankees are hiding the injury but continue to send him out every 5 days, which is also selfish and stupid.
Interesting idea tho.
He may well be injured/hurt
But I find it somewhat amusing that you went with the leg injury rather than a possible arm ailment that he’s not revealing.
An arm problem would be a real thorny issue for people who think Joba has a future as a starter, so I can understand why you’d go with a leg injury from 2 months ago … however ridiculous that might be.
by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 16, 2009 6:26 PM EDT reply actions
cuz pitchers don't use their
legs to pitch right? A righthander, who pushes off, to get velocity off his right leg, doesn’t need his right knee to help with that.
Since when do pitchers use their legs?
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 16, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
OMG I'm so F'ing stupid...
..I actually didn’t know that, thanks so much for clearing it up.
Do pitchers use their arms too? Hasn’t Joba had an arm issue already in his professional career?
Trying to make up a leg injury is just creating an excuse out of nowhere.
by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 16, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
So is making up an arm injury
he’s had ample time to recover from the last one. Why does it have to be the arm again? Its not irrelevant that he’s had a history of arm trouble, but why point to that so quickly. He DID get hit with a line drive in the leg. I don’t know how that’s making something up.
Pushing off that leg if its a stress fracture will just worsen it every time he throws a ball. That he’s lost velocity and command…, but still can throw 100 pitches, points to something other than the arm.
It could be the arm, it could be the leg after that linedrive, it could be nothing and just in his head.
by FreeBradshaw on Jul 16, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Children, children
Enough already. Someday I am going to lock you two guys in a room until you come out realizing you are both Yankee fans. BTW, ‘jscape’ chose that photo because it is the only one we have rights to showing any type of Joba injury.
by Ed Valentine on Jul 16, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
AGREE AGREE AGREE
I dont know HOW he’s hurt, but there’s NO WAY the change in dominance and velocity are occurring amid a situation where he somehow managed to get out of the “IP Overload in Just One Year” house of horrors, while already sustaining an existing shoulder issue.
I dont think the yanks wouldnt necessarily be addressing it publicly, bc imagine if he IS hurt? Think about what we’d do the brass that took our golden boy and endangered his arm so early in his career, over such a wildly controversial subject.
great piece, glad someone wrote this!
(Ps, I guess it’s also kinda like what I tell my chick friends who are bemoaning their boyfriends’ behavior but then justifying it with “well he’s just dealing with commitment issues/insecure/working really late”…Who cares what the rationale is behind it when, either way, it still means you have to suffer through the resulting output of it. I think Joba’s hurt, but at this point, the underlying problem is only a periphery sideshow to the conspicious decline of his caliber. Basically, Joba’s telling me he slept around because he was scared of getting too close. The bastard.)
by CrazyYankeeChick on Jul 16, 2009 7:09 PM EDT reply actions
Ummm ...
Well, you don’t call yourself ‘crazy’ for nothing. LOL!!
by Ed Valentine on Jul 16, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
It makes more sense . . .
that he has an injury other then his arm, just due to the fact that he is able to go 100 pitches every game. All the power pitchers rely on their legs and a lack of ability to push off would explain the drop in velocity.
He may have hid the injury initially and fought through the pain, and ended up tweaking something in his delivery. Who knows, but injury is definitely a possibility.
It would also explain the lack of control, though in the couple of his starts I’ve seen he seemed to be repeating his motion (though that doesn’t mean he’s finishing his pitches, need to see more video).
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
A "tired" arm would also explain both
Lack of command, possible lower arm angle or release point, lower velocity.
All symptoms of possible arm trouble.
by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 17, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I really cringe when it's his time in the rotation now
If he’s not hurt, the Yanks may have destroyed him even if he goes back to the bullpen…Trade him for Hallady please…
Joba Hurt ?
I don’t think he’s hurt physically, but mentally maybe? I still believe he try’s too hard to protect his stats. Look at what happens to him after an error. How many un-earned runs has he given up. Watch his demeanor change. I would like to see him have a rap session with David Cone. Why Cone? I believe Cone could step into the pitching coaches job, right now. Cone’s experience, skills and patience were on display daily when he was here. Even Mel said he was a great instructor.
I spy with my little eye
Extremely similar peripherals.
The Hurt Joba theory Doesn't Quite Ring True
All players are dinged up at some level or another. So to offer the hurt theory as the sole justification doesn’t quite work; as the writer says he did throw in a gem somewhere along the line. So what is that? Selective hurt?
This is my theory: Joba is not a starter but a closer at heart. Papelbon faced that exact problem a couple years back. He chose to close, not start. That ensured he had the stamina for the season and he could concentrate on one inning and maybe 4 outs. The Yankees did not protect Joba they way they should have; now he is breaking down apparently “hurt.” I think he is just out of position.
Check out the posts RAB has run in the last couple of days breaking down Joba’s pitch selection and velocity start by start.
He’s velocity was there until he got hit by the line drive, he had one start in the 8 since then when he was sitting in the mid 90s with that high 97 when he needed it. I hurt my shoulder a few years back, and there’d be days I’d wake up and it’d feel great. But most days it was a problem.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
In other words...
…arm injuries don’t go away that quickly, if ever.
Wouldn’t it then make sense to conclude that he may possibly still be suffering from the injury that put him on the DL last year after 12 starts?
by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 17, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Entirely possible
Ronster makes a great point about Joba’s nibbling.
Joba could still be feeling his shoulder injury, and (consciously or subconsciously) afraid to really let it fly.
He’s aware that his velocity is down and so he isn’t attacking hitters the way he did last year.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Joba Gruels ...
The injury bug might make more sense to me if prior to getting plunked in the leg he was pitching fabulously. He wasn’t. In fact, as your stats show, he was barely getting out of the 5th. That’s not good pitching.
As a former pitcher, I can tell you when your legs are hurt, effectiveness plummets. But there’s more to Joba’s grueling, almost unwatchable starts than a leg injury. In my opinion, he’s afraid to get hit, and simply doesn’t trust his stuff—not a good combination for a starter.
Watch when he goes up on a hitter 0-2, 1-2 … Watch how he nibbles—spinning curves on the corners or sliders in the dirt—hoping someone chases. They rarely do because hitters are beginning to figure out that Joba doesn’t have the gas or command to put them away.
That’s why we are seeing 3-2 counts, countless foul balls before a stinging hit to center.
Is Joba in the rotation an experiment gone awry? I think he could be a solid starter, but I think his best place to help the Yankees is stepping into the 8th inning role. That’s not likely to happen so instead, message to Dave Eiland and Joba. Scrap the nibbling. Grow a pair and attack the hitters. Challenge, challenge, challenge. If that can’t be accomplished in the rotation, then he needs to slide to the pen.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
Myabe its..
Crown Royal? Kidding, theory could be true. But it could also be, that he isn’t built ot be a starter. I understand they want him to be and it takes time yada,yada,yada. But only time will tell.
by ReggieARodJeter on Jul 17, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions
Joba's pitching
In my eyes Joba should have never been moved from the bullpen. He was very comfortable there and very effective. But now that he’s in the starting rotation, everyone needs to accept it. I believe he has the stuff to be a starter, but the problem is the pitch count. Pitchers are being held to such a strict # of pitches they can throw. And in Joba’s case, I think it affects the way he ptiches. He tries to be perfect and that can gets him in trouble. When he was in the bullpen he would just let it rip. Now he has to be mindful of how many pitches he throws and he has lost some speed on his pitches. Which could be a result of trying to save something for later. He tries to make sure he lasts and gives the Yanks the innings they need. But until he doesn’t have a pitch count that is reasonable he won’t be able to be as good or maybe one day a great staret that he can be…
P.S. check this Yankee video out, no too shabby!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfH5_bhgKsU






















