Around the Yankee Universe: Roy Halladay Edition
by Ed Valentine on Jul 16, 2009 10:13 AM EDT
in News
29 comments
I have been incredibly reluctant to jump into the Roy Halladay discussion. I still do it with trepidation, because I think his chances of winding up with the Yankees are nearly non-existent. Yet, a couple of respected Yankee writers have painted the scenario for how it 'could' happen, so I might as well.
Peter Abraham lays out the case for how the Yankees 'could' put Doc in pinstripes.
Here is what I will give up:
• Joba Chamberlain. The unexplained loss of velocity is a concern. So is the stubborn unwillingness to listen to others. There is a chance he could be great. But as each day passes, there seems to be more of a chance that he won’t be. He has a great story, but maybe we’ve already seen the best part. Look at this way, what the odds he will be as good as Halladay will be for the rest of this season and next? Zero.
• Jesus Montero. There has to be pain in this trade and this is it. Jesus of Venezuela might be the best power hitter in the minors and could be a difference-maker for any team. But he’s a catcher and that is the one position where the Yankees are loaded. The defensively refined Austin Romine is developmentally close to Montero and Francisco Cervelli could well prove to be an adequate stopgap. Plus the Yankees have a bunch of impressive young catchers in the pipeline including Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sanchez and (soon enough) J.R. Murphy. It’ll hurt, but Montero could well be a DH in five years. The world is full of DHs.
• Anybody else: Yes, anybody else in the minors. Austin Jackson, Dellin Betances, Zack McAllister, take your pick. This is Roy Halladay, after all.
Sure, Halladay will add $7 million to the payroll this season. Big deal. The Yankees are drawing more fans than any team out there and inventing new revenue streams every day. Broadband access, Yankees Universe, etc. There must be $7 million in there somewhere. Check the Legends Seats for loose change.
Bill Madden of the Daily News lays out a similar scenario, but goes a step further. Madden says it is a move the Yankees 'should' make.
Let's assume none of the logical suspects steps forward with the kind of deal Ricciardi has to have to justify trading Halladay to the Toronto fans. It can be assumed that from the Yankees he would have to have either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain and their top catching prospect, 19-year-old Jesus Montero, who was recently promoted to Double-A Trenton, and another top pitching prospect along the lines of a Mark Melancon or Zach McAllister.
Given that Cashman is fiercely protective of his farm system, he would undoubtedly gulp hard at that. But if Halladay ever should fall to him by default, he should not hesitate to give up any of his top prospects. Whatever it takes. We're talking about the ultimate difference-maker here in Halladay. And in the Yankees' quest to get to the World Series, their starting pitching is once again in question after CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Cashman knows he can't count on Chien-Ming Wang to return to his old form any more than he can count on 37-year-old Andy Pettitte to have a second-half resurgence.
Between now and the trading deadline, Cashman is going to have to find another reliable starting pitcher. He appears to have the necessary chips to land the most reliable one out there. For him, it would be an unexpected do-over for not making the Santana deal. A lot still has to happen with other clubs for the Blue Jays to turn to the Yankees with Halladay. But if it does come to pass, Cashman shouldn't have to be reminded what he lost by not getting Santana when he had the chance.
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They should do
But I have heard that who ever getsHalladay they are going to have to take the contract of Wells or Rios too. Similar to what the Marlins did with Beckett and Lowell
I Agree
If the Yankees were to land Halladay, they would, without question have the best rotation in the bigs. Imagine a rotation of 1-Sabathia 2-Halladay 3-Burnett 4-Pettitte and 5-Wang’s replacament (more than likely Sergio Mitre). Sounds good to me considering the Yankees farm system is loaded.
That trade would hurt, but when you
look at it, the Yanks would be better off. Hopefully it would only be three players, and if that 3rd player is someone like Betances then that’s not so bad.
And you also can add in there that Halladay seems to like to teach his craft to fellow rotation-mates. He seemed to get through to AJ Burnett. Maybe he would do the same with the likes of Phil Hughes? Maybe he could show something to CM Wang too? I know that’s what they pay Eiland for, but you never know.
If this somehow happens, Im sure people will look at the prospects lost and talk about the future. But when they see Halladay deal and pitch deep into games, and actually get some run support to boot, no one will really care too much who the Yanks would give up.
And if they have to take back Rios or Wells, Id much rather have Rios. Tho either of the 2 could have a Lowell like comeback in the new stadium.
"as each day passes, there seems to be more of a chance that he won’t be [great]"
First of all, taken literally, this is complete nonsense. “As each day passes”? So he’s less likely to be a great pitcher today then he was Monday, or Tuesday, or Wednesday, when he didn’t pitch?
Even taken less literally, Abraham’s statement isn’t much smarter. Are we really giving up on a 23-year-old pitcher after two bad starts? Yes, the lower velocity is troubling. And yes, I wish his attitude was a little different, though if it’s better that he’s showing some confidence in his abilities, rather than freaking out at the first sign of trouble. But we’re going to give up on this guy – plus give up our best, though low-level, catching prospect, plus “anybody else” – for a 32-year-old pitcher, based on a couple of bad starts? It’s madness.
by long time listener on Jul 16, 2009 11:16 AM EDT reply actions
It's not 2 bad starts...
…it’s 7 starts with an ERA over 5.
And I don’t think Joba is showing confidence at all, he’s showing a failure to grasp the reality of the situation. Saying he pitched well after his last two starts is just delusional, and in reality he’s not pitching confidently at all.
If he was, he wouldn’t be 3-2 on every single hitter.
Still, even I would have a hard time dealing Joba/Montero/________ for a 32-year-old pitcher who hasn’t thrown a single pressure inning in his entire life.
by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 16, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ll give you that it’s more than a couple of bad starts, and even give you that his attitude recently indicates cluelessness more than confidence. Where are we going to be, as a franchise, if we trade every prospect at the first sign of trouble for guys who are over 30? Even a guy as good as Halladay? We’re going to be old, over-priced, and underachieving.
by long time listener on Jul 16, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I am in complete agreement with you on that
I really don’t like the “rental” trade especially, because you have to give up quality players/prospects for a guy who could be here for a year and a half.
You know the Yankees would give him a massive extension too, because God forbid they let someone walk away.
Halladay scares me. He’s obviously a great pitcher, but there’s a lot of risk involved in trading for a 32-year-old pitcher with a lot of miles on his arm. It’s one thing to sign a guy like that as a free agent, and quite another to have to deal with your prospects potentially turning into stars in your division.
by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 16, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not really worried about Joba’s attitude to the media. Remember that AJ said he thought he’d be fine and wasn’t going to make any adjustments after getting smashed by the Sox? Then he went on a tear for the next month.
What Joba does on the mound (between starts and in games) is far more important than what he says to the reporters.
I also object to describing Halladay as someone who’s never ‘thrown a single pressure inning in his entire life.’ You don’t accidentally allow fewer hits than innings pitched. Halladay has built a sterling reputation that he defends every time he takes the ball.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Ok, but ...
He’s pitched in relative obscurity for a team that hasn’t so much as been in a pennant race in his entire career.
It’s just a little different taking the ball every 5 days for the New York Yankees.
by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 16, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
As an
outsider, I can objectively try to state the case that it would be a mistake. I think fans overestimate the influence that a single player, no matter how good, has on winning. The facts are:
a)The Yankees are among the handful of top teams in all of baseball right now.
b)The Yankees don’t really need to take on big contract aging players. That is not a winning strategy. Halladay will be 38 by the time he is done with his “next” team. And he will be paid a lot of money to pitch in his overprime years.
c)The Yankees, despite the woes of the starting rotation, have good arms in their starting rotation. It is unlikely that the rotaion will be as bad in the second half as it was in the first.
Put it this way, let’s say that 50% of these kind of trades (1 big star for several young prospects) work out. Is that a risk that should be taken with a team that is already a real contender? Is that a good way to plan for the future? Think about trades like the Bedard trade, or Phillips, Sizemore and Lee for Colon, or any number of other of these trades, and ask if the risk is worth it. As a Sox fan, I am so glad the Sox did NOT make the trade for Santana.
Colon was very good after the trade, but the rest of the Expos collapsed around him. If they had played afterwards the way they played before, the Expos would have made the postseason and might still be the Expos.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
But
that is not the point. Moving forward Lee, Sizemore and Phillips could be argued to each be more valuable than Colon, even with his Cy Young award. It was an absymal trade. The Yankees are not selling for one season (Cashman is not that dumb), they are trying to be a legit contender now and for the foreseeable future. Let’s say that they had 3 guys in the minors like Phillips, Lee and Sizemore, and could get a Colon. Would that be a good trade?
I think we agree.
The Yankees are on a different plan, so the Colon trade makes a poor comparison.
The Expos had a window, and they sold the farm to try to make it in that window. The Yankees don’t have a window, they have a cycle. Selling Joba, Montero, and AJax would break the cycle and create a window. Even if they did win in the next year or two after making a Halladay trade, it could easily be 3 or 4 years before they do it again.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Well said.
There needs to be a context for such deals. The Diamondbacks traded a lot of prospects to build the team that got them their one WS. I am sure they view that as a success. But that is not really an option for the Yankees. And even so, it was a risky thing to do.
Maybe the "Win Now" is overtaking my logic maybe but.....
You can’t honestly believe that they make a SERIOUS playoff run pitching the way they are. No lead is ever safe,the bullpen has gotten better but it isn’t shutdown just yet. The backend of the rotation stumbled into this break. Remember what we all believed during spring training? That they would be almost untouchable. The two teams we struggle against have nothing to fear right now. Making this move puts us in a better spot and more likely than not,strengthens the rotation overall.Maybe a guy like Halladay makes up for the enigma that is CMW,Joba the 5 inning guy and Andy"sometimes 98,sometimes 08"Of course you let go prospects, but not ALL. Halladay is in his prime as well. There really doesn’t need to be too many questions about his age,or the big game. How many “big games” did El Duque pitch when he came over? And he wasn’t proven at all correct? WIN NOW! Hit your nemesis where it hurts! Fix your weaknesses when opportunity shows itself. This is a make or break year,is it not? There has been more pain than joy this decade,has it not? 01,03,04,07,08 just to name a few. Its worth risks at this point.
by ReggieARodJeter on Jul 16, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions
Roy Halladay available - Do whatever it takes to get him in pinstripes.
We are not talking a second tier pitcher like AJ Burnett or Jake Peavy. We’re talking Roy Halladay, stud for theToronto Bluejays. I’m thinking like Ed that we don’t have a very good chance of getting him but if the Toronto GM calls, Cashman should not only listen but put together a package that has Phil Hughes and or Joba and Montero and throw in Melky if they want him. Halladay makes the Yankees the odds on favorites to not only win the pennant but the series as well. Cashman shouldn’t think too long on this one. It makes more sense than 160 million on Sabathia.
Ed, I have to disagree
with your statement that the Yankees have a window in the next 1.5 years. with the money they have, the window never closes. While Arod, Jeter and Posada are past their prime, others are not yet there: Cano, Melky, Gardner, hughes, joba, montero, ajax, etc. and who knows what other FAs/trades are made in the offseason?
ask yourself this
All this ridiculous arguing to hang on to maybe players.Ask yourself this,what does this guy going to Boston do for the Sox?Scares you to death right?I do not know how to put it any more simple for you guys.They would have a dynasty no doubt barring injuries.The answer is do it and draft better the next 2 yrs.Damon and Matsui and Petite are all off the books come yrs end and that will free up money to fill positions effectively with guys who can play in the field and hit for average,see 98 yankees.The pitching is then top notch again like back in the day.No doubt Boston Cashman will keep hanging on to Ian Kennedy and Joba until you get nothing for them while beantown celebrates for yrs to come.But Maybe sounds nice to you guys.
by cashman bashman on Jul 17, 2009 11:57 AM EDT reply actions
NO WAY SHOULD WE GO GET HALLADAY
if we need to give up jesus, ajax and joba. that would be just rediculous when we could possibly get him at the end of next year. We need our farm system and would be completely idiotic to give them up.
Halladay Trade Not Needed
I think trading for Halladay is poor idea from at least one perspective. I don’t believe that Halladay adds more than ten wins in what is left of the regular season. We lead the division, the pitching has improved dramatically and I still say you MUST look at the runs against = 6 vs era=2.86. I still don’t think there is a really compelling argument for Halladay @ 32 years of age. I wouldn’t give-up any good prospects at this point.
Besides there is the Girardi factor here. IMHO, I think Joe really has developed this team into believing in themselves. I see a team with confidence in their hitting, defense and in their pitching. I wouldn’t count Chamberlain out yet, either. I really believe that he is almost prime time.
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